I got the Heisman odds as wrong as everyone else
If you looked at a list of preseason Heisman favorites this offseason, it inevitably featured Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler and Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei at or near the top. Georgia's JT Daniels was on there somewhere, as were Miami's D'Eriq King, UNC's Sam Howell and USC's Kedon Slovis. If you'd asked me to craft a list of my own favorites, it would have featured all of theIf you were to craft a list of favorites today, it would still include a couple of names that were on preseason lists. Alabama's Bryce Young is either the favorite or co-favorite at this point, and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud is gaining ground quickly. But Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, a potential co-favorite today, wasn't high on many preseason lists (even if he should have been), and you'd have been laughed off of the internet if you tried to make a preseason case for Pitt's Kenny Pickett or even Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III, either of whom could finish in the top five.
Rattler not only struggled to live up to the hype (he's 32nd in Total QBR) but got benched in favor of Caleb Williams in Week 7. Uiagalelei, who performed so capably when Trevor Lawrence was out last season, was briefly benched on Saturday in a mistake-filled loss to Pitt. He's a dreadful 105th in Total QBR. King ranked 89th when he was lost for the season to injury. Slovis is 80th. Howell has thrived by comparison but ranks 28th, his Heels a meager 4-3 after starting the season in the AP top 10.
It feels like the quarterback position has been a lot harder this season, but that's not exactly true. Passing stats overall are basically the same as last year -- FBS quarterbacks are completing 61.6% of their passes (up from 61.2% last year) and averaging 6.7 yards per dropback (up from 6.6), and pressure and sack numbers have sunk slightly.
It's becoming harder to pass on good teams, though.
• FBS quarterbacks vs. FPI top-20 teams*, 2020: 60.2% completion rate, 6.3 yards per dropback, 4.9% TD rate, 2.8% INT rate, 6.7% sack rate (on a 25.4% blitz rate)
• 2021: 61.0% completion rate, 5.9 yards per dropback, 4.2% TD rate, 2.8% INT rate, 6.9% sack rate (on a 24.0% blitz rate)
* This is based on an opponent's FPI ranking at the time of the game.
Better teams are allowing a higher completion rate and taking fewer blitz risks but are keeping plays in front of them and forcing opposing quarterbacks to be patient. Some young, high-upside QBs are struggling with this, while veterans are thriving: Pickett is third in Total QBR, Corral is fourth and Wake Forest's Sam Hartman is fifth. They have all started for multiple seasons.
Of course, the top two Heisman candidates -- Stroud and Young -- still are first-year starters. If you've got enough offensive upside around you, you will evidently thrive no matter what defenses are trying to do.
I didn't think Pitt would be a national title contender
OK, probably no one outside of Kenny Pickett's close relatives did. But while you could find people at least talking about the Panthers as a sleeper in the ACC Coastal race, I didn't even grant that. SP+ projected them fourth in the division, a good distance behind the top three, and I agreed. There was just no reason to expect a breakthrough this late in Pickett's career, and while the defense had been awesome of late, it had to replace a couple of excellent defensive ends and star safeties.The surge we've seen from Pickett and the Panthers this year is why it's really, really fun to be wrong sometimes. They are now 6-1 and 3-0 in the ACC, having bested Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson by an average of 36-15. The Panthers are ninth in SP+ and sixth in FPI, which gives them not only a commanding 61% chance of winning the ACC but also a 23% chance of reaching the CFP, the seventh-best overall odds. Their lone loss -- 44-41 to Western Michigan -- was as much of a "dumb stuff happens" game as it gets: The Panthers averaged 8.4 yards per play but suffered three turnovers and two turnovers on downs, which led directly to 17 Broncos points.
Pitt remains aggressive, volatile and fun as hell, and the Panthers have been one of the best stories of the first two months. I thought they had a chance at a fast start thanks to the schedule, but this is far more than I had in mind.
