We were 0-2 on 4th downs but in real time I thought maybe Pitt should go for it. The success rate on picking up the foot had to be around 90%. I did think that it was smarter to punt it to a 3rd string QB because I felt worst-case scenario, you go to OT. I never expected them to score a TD. But Junko was punting poorly also so that's something to consider. There's that saying of like if you cant get a yard or whatever, you deserve to lose. 1 play. 1 foot. Win or probably lose. Man, I think you have to go for it.
Do you go for it on 4th and a foot?
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We punted from like the 17, didn't we? Even if we were at the 1 I don't think that would be worth giving away the possibility of them winning the game with a field goal.
We just needed to not let a very bad offense score... and we failed.
Edit: Forgot about the Donovan McDraggin penalties. But I still don't think you allow them to win it with a field goal.
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I thought about this in real time. Snapping it to Villeaux and having him run to the endzone and burn off 10 seconds. So instead of having Junko punt the ball from his 6. Sauls can kick it from the 20 with 35 seconds left. After the return, there's 29 seconds and they are at their own 35 or 40 instead of the Pitt 48 with 40 seconds. A FG wins it for them though so that's a bigger risk than going for it I think
Yeah, you could never give a team a chance to win it with just one completion like that. It would have been historically stupid if they drilled a 45-yarder as time expired.
Do you ever run short of stupid questions and inane suppositions? So many mysteries...there is also that saying that says if you cannot stop a third string QB from engineering a game winning touchdown drive in the waning minute and a half you deserve to lose...
Going for it on a 4th and 1 play where you have a 90% chance of a conversion and if you dont make it, will very likely lose is a realistic question. I think if you asked a loy of coaches if you had to get 1 yard and if you get it, you win, if you dont, you lose, most would take it.
I agree totally. But that would require this Coach to think outside the box. You are 2-4 with the season going nowhere. You have a 6'4" quarterback who should be able to get a yard. You just got screwed on the previous play. Call a TO and get the kids fired up and play to win the game!!!!!
I think that easily defensible too in the post-game:
Duzz: Listen we had to get a yard. I told the kids, lets get a yard and then go get on the bus. I didn't want to mess around with a bad snap, blocked punt, or a short field. I was confident we could get the yard. We didnt get the yard. We deserved to lose.
LOL, you'd have to be a complete moron to go on 4th in that situation. A complete friggin moron.
What's the success rate of driving 50 yards in 40 seconds, with one TO, and a 3rd string QB? 5%, maybe less?
Unless you're Hal Mumme or Kevin freakin Kelley, you punt the ball.
It's crazy how many coaches take their team out of games by rolling the dice on 4th down. Dan Lanning last week. This week, Mack Brown & Josh Huepel.
Btw, what the hell was Pitt doing Saturday on a 4th & 4 at midfield? Luckily, someone moved early and sanity prevailed with a 4th & 9.
I will answer that. But I asked you first. 4th and 1 success rate in that situation. What do you think? Answer and I will.
Not with that refereeing crew.
They had just hosed Pitt on the previous play when Pitt clearly got the first down by two yards, visible to everyone on the planet not blind or mentally challenged.
Why would anyone think these same refs would rule fairly/correctly on a QB sneak when (as seen at the end of the Steelers game) the refs can mark the ball as far or as short as they want to?
They had just hosed Pitt on the previous play when Pitt clearly got the first down by two yards, visible to everyone on the planet not blind or mentally challenged.
Why would anyone think these same refs would rule fairly/correctly on a QB sneak when (as seen at the end of the Steelers game) the refs can mark the ball as far or as short as they want to?
I have no idea, because it's not as simple as looking at analytics of 4th and 1 calls. It's a different situation than a team going on 4th and 1 at midfield in the middle of a game.
I know it's your MO to randomly pull fictitious percentages out of your behind though.... so have at it.
That's a punt all day, and everyday, for anyone with an ounce on sense. Your made up percentages won't change that.
I asked you what you thought the percentage was. Come on. Be brave and give your opinion on what you think the success ratio is there.
I already told you only a fool would go for it in that situation. Make up your own number.
You are saying only a fool would go for it there so I am assuming you think you only have maybe a 40% or 50% chance of making it. Correct?
Like he said, this isn't the percentage that matters. It's the percentage that they tie it up or win if you.go for it and don't make it. That is north of 99%. This isn't checkers, it's chess.
It's just like leaving the acc. It's not the odds of whether you win the lawsuit or not, it's how much you owe if you lose.
Let me ask you this one. We are down 21-20 to ND on Saturday. 30 seconds left. The ball is on our 9 yard line. 4th and 1. Conversion equals win. Failed conversion equals loss. Punt and they are 2 passes away from a GW FG. What do you do?
Punt. Two passes and a FG is a lower percentage than giving them the ball on the 9 or worse. Pitt isn't the Philadelphia Eagles and CV isn't Jalen Hurts.
Well, first off, the play before was a first down, we got screwed, so it shouldnt be an issue.
BBBBBUUUUUTTTT... you would have had to be am absolute nutball to go for it up by only 3 there.
I think the percentage chance of you continuing to double and triple down on stupid is close to 100%.
Still waiting for your percentage estimate. I know you are afaid to give one but just be brave
You aren't smart enough to let the thread die. Must be trying to get another post on that message board moron site.
It's totally irrelevant. Its not about a percentage, it's calculating the risk and the risk is way too high. If you disagree not make it, you automatically lose. And you become me the laughing stock of college football. You might even get fired before you leave the field.
So, if there is any chance at all that I won't make it in that situation, I punt and at least give my special teams/defense a chance to win.
My percentage estimate that SMF responds is 50%. I was going to say 100% because he always has to have the last word, but he just might have enough self control to shut up just to spite us.
I will let it die when you tell me what you think the percentage is that Pitt makes that 4th and 1.
If Pitt were the Philadelphia Eagles, you don’t even give it a second thought, you go for it.
But if you’re Pitt and PN, you still don’t give it a second thought, it’s just that the decision is opposite of the Iggles.
I should have stuck with my 100% estimate. It was pretty much a sure thing.
Given Pitt's short yardage game, not good.
There was a 4th & 1 in the 3rd qtr where Wake lined up without a tackle remotely close to the center. CV could have taken the snap & literally stumbled forward for at least 2 or 3 yards. ...Nope... Hand off to C'Bo & he's swallowed up before he can get started.
So, wake scored 2 touchdown in 12 drives up to that point. That gives Pitt an 84% chance of winning if they punt. If you add in the fact that there's like 45 seconds left, that percentage goes to probably 95%. Let's say 4th and 1 is 50/50(we all know Pitt sucks.in fourth and short conversations so it's probably way worse.).
So you have a 50% chance to win if you go for it and a 95% chance of winning if you punt. Easy decision really.
If I came to you with a prop bet to win $100 and the terms were either we flip a coin or I have to pick a number in your head between 1 and 20, but if I'm wrong you get the money, which game do you play?
So you have a 50% chance to win if you go for it and a 95% chance of winning if you punt. Easy decision really.
If I came to you with a prop bet to win $100 and the terms were either we flip a coin or I have to pick a number in your head between 1 and 20, but if I'm wrong you get the money, which game do you play?
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So had Pitt actually gone for it on 4th, they would have had a 0% chance of gaining the yard.
