82,000 dead by August

Discussion in 'Locker Room' started by Sean Miller Fan, Mar 31, 2020.

  1. Sean Miller Fan

    Sean Miller Fan Lair Hall of Famer
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  2. CaptainMurphy

    CaptainMurphy All Conference
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    Kids will be back to school by the start of next school year. I agree that fall sports are unlikely. Wouldn't be surprised if NFL is playing games on empty stadiums and the other sports delay until the start of 2021.
     
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  3. Sean Miller Fan

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    I dont see how mass gatherings of 1000 will be allowed by September. I wouldn't be shocked if mass gatherings of 100 are allowed by then but then what do you do?
     
  4. BPKY

    BPKY Head Coach
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    "The nation's top infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday that substantially more people could die: "Looking at what we're seeing now, I would say that 100,000 and 200,000" deaths could occur"

    "But I don't want to be held to that," said Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. He cautioned that modeling is imperfect, and said, "I just don't think that we really need to make a projection when it's such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people
    ."

    Then stop doing it.
     
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  5. BPKY

    BPKY Head Coach
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    You can prohibit arena events but still open up businesses. It's the one-size-fits-all mentality of government that causes the problems.
     
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  6. Sean Miller Fan

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    It would have to be based on mass gathering limitations. I think we are perhaps a year away from allowing 50,000 people to go to work in the US Steel Tower, for example. Now, a small 10 person accounting firm in some suburb, yea, ok.
     
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  7. CaptainMurphy

    CaptainMurphy All Conference
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    I can see where schools may operate with major modifications for a while. No buses, lunch in the classrooms, kids stay in the same room all day while the teachers move around (difficult for electives), no recess or gym. But I think getting kids back in the classroom is very important. Can't lose almost a year of education to this. Online is working OK but it is supplemental at best from what I'm seeing.
     
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  8. Sean Miller Fan

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    I hope they are back by September but I don't see how they will let that amount of people congregate in one place. Maybe they can start with 1 grade going per day, then move up to 2 grades, 3 grades, etc.
     
  9. CaptainMurphy

    CaptainMurphy All Conference
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    The youngest grades are suffering the most. Online learning is difficult for Kindergartners unless the parent really puts in time and effort.

    IMO, teachers need to be live streaming lessons and worrying less about assignments these days. The Google classroom stuff with 10 apps and links is confusing and exhausting to navigate for little kids.
     
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  10. recruitsreadtheseboards

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  11. recruitsreadtheseboards

    recruitsreadtheseboards Lair Hall of Famer
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    I am sorry...I have some hope. We can't go every day, one day, 24 hours, and 24 hours passes and then continue to think the worst.

    Let's see where we are in 2 weeks. Of course the death toll will rise, of course occurrences will increase, but at what rate, and we will have more information on treatments.
     
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  12. Sean Miller Fan

    Sean Miller Fan Lair Hall of Famer
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    Heck no. I want to get back to normal. I don't want to be right.
     
  13. recruitsreadtheseboards

    recruitsreadtheseboards Lair Hall of Famer
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    But every day or hour you are posting a chicken little post. I come on this board in the AM....but i am sorry, I have to unplug from this. I know what to do, I am practicing almost to the max sheltering in place, but I also think obsession with these numbers and news is not healthy.
     
  14. PittFamily2

    PittFamily2 Sophomore
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    Why don't you post with your other sn @TheSpecialSauce so you can post doom and gloom twice as fast and twice as much.

    First you don't and didn't buy season tickets so why do you care. Two other posters smoked you out on that one ( PittLaw and one other I forget who). Go back and read your thread about who isn't buying season tickets.

    80% of the thread is you posted doom and gloom like you're enjoying this.

    Your predictions aren't going to happen. Not a chance. Things will be fully open June 1st.
    The country cannot be closes longer than that so there will be some risk that is factored in.
    All you post is negative stuff.

    There are 3k deaths as of today.
    80k deaths as of August ??? Come on,
    200k deaths in total not a chance.

    And Fauci keeps saying there's no accurate way to predict this stuff so don't hold me to it.

    Stop making projections at this time and lets see how things go!

    3k today
    +77k = 15.4 people have to die each month starting now to get to 80k in August
    80k August
    200k Total
    Trump, Pence, Birx, and Fauci have to get going or they'll miss their 200k projectioin by a lot and Trump hates missing targets.

    My prediction- is things will slowly begin to open 5/1 into June.
    Maybe 30k deaths.
     
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  15. recruitsreadtheseboards

    recruitsreadtheseboards Lair Hall of Famer
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    And that's on the other side. "Everything will be open by June 1?" Where are you getting this from? While the fear mongering is not fun to read and not pleasant, it is more connected to science and reality than statements like everything will be open by June 1st.

    Come on man, why do people have to sit on the poles? You can marry some facts, common sense and hope. But all of that together certainly doesn't suggest this, unless it is a miracle.
     
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  16. PittFamily2

    PittFamily2 Sophomore
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    Well Fauci admits he has no clue and is guessing, Fine . I think they're scaring people only because Trump to happy with all of this.

    From some intelligent sources.
    I do participate in conference calls each week with a large one of the largest investment banks and htye aren't saying any of this. They're looking at a phase in opening of the economy and social events beginning in May and progressing from that point.

    The NJ beaches will be open along with the casinos since NJ rides on the success of the beach season.
    No beaches no NJ. The beaches make NJ special otherwise its just a road with toll booths on it.

    Some other stuff.

    Same for NYC. They will get this straightened out of people, tenants, lots of people and things wont return to NYC. Cuomo is working ot to get this under control and open up, he said it yesterday on radio and tv.

    PA is planning to open trout season on 4/18 as of now.

    I can promise you the OP SMF =TheSpeicialSauce knows nothing !
    He enjoys delivering bad news!
     
    16 PittFamily2, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  17. NCPitt

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    I agree. These 2 represent the 2 extremes. I've challenged both regularly. One ignores my questions about his assumptions and the other all reason. They both are tiresome.
     
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  18. JGregor

    JGregor Head Coach
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    It’s about planning for the worst from reading the statistical models, and hoping for the best. You must be ready for the worst possible scenario.
     
  19. caleco's

    caleco's All American
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    dude this is his daliy genocide post. there will be at least 4 more today.

    he is cnn jr.
     
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  20. PittFamily2

    PittFamily2 Sophomore
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    Fauci said they have no models to project this situation.
    "don't hold me to this projection"?? DONT MAKE IT!
    This is all guesswork, and dangerous guesswork at that.

    If he keeps doing thing with no data, he and they, will lose creditbility.
    3k dead as of today
    80k as of August - they are falling behind already. 15k per month have to die including April to get to 80k
    200k??

    They should prepare internally, gather more data, and at that time start to make projections that they can back up.
    People are locked up in homes, with families, with others, people are on edge so sure Fauci throw out stuff like this, it really helps??

    It doesn't.
     
    20 PittFamily2, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  21. JGregor

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    Hope springs eternal, but reality sets in. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.
     
  22. mike 301

    mike 301 Heisman Candidate
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    You rarely are so that’s encouraging
     
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  23. JGregor

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    I like your optimism. Hope is good. Especially with investment advisors. Medical people and statistical analysis feel otherwise. Have hope but reality and being prepared is the better course.
     
  24. PittFamily2

    PittFamily2 Sophomore
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    I agree with that but that's not how they presenting this.
    To me it sounds like they're saying this is a sure thing and there's no optimistic option.

    This could go in lots of directions some of which are positive.


    I wish someone routing for the 80k and 200k would keep me posted of the April death count.

    Starting tomorrow 15.4 people have to die in April to stay on target.

    Acutal ------------

    If we fall behind in April that many more have to die in May to stay on target.

    Same for the future months.

    Good luck we wont make it!
    Thankfully!
     
    24 PittFamily2, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  25. JGregor

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    I hear you and I also choose be more attentive to what the medical advisors say with science and what their statistical analysis projects. However, I find hard to imagine 100K to 200k possible deaths?
     
  26. NCPitt

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    You don't yet seem to understand that this isn't linear and the past results are not predictive of future results.
     
  27. PittFamily2

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    So what you're saying is if 2k die in April, 3k in May, and 4k in June than 36k have to die in later months to make up the death count avg of 15.4 per month ?

    What doesn't make sense if the death count doesn't pick up, 40k will have to die each month for the Fauci prediction to come true.
    They would have to drop in the streets, A viet nam war death count every month.

    That doesn't make sense!
     
  28. Sean Miller Fan

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    You really are a village idiot. You are getting pandemic advice from investment advisers? You are one of a kind, that's for sure.
     
  29. Sean Miller Fan

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    If we go by this projection, I would say that most optimistically:

    July 1: mass gatherings of 25 people allowed

    August 1: 50 people

    September 1: 100 people

    November 1: back down to 25 as we prepare for the 2nd wave caused by allowing mass gatherings of 100 people. Remember, there is no cure or treatment right now so unless it completely dies out on its own, it will run in cycles.

    There are going to be extreme limits on mass gatherings until there is a cure, treatment, or the virus dies out on its own.
     
  30. Sean Miller Fan

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    The model is saying 3000/day at its peak by mid-April before decreasing
     
  31. NTOP

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  32. recruitsreadtheseboards

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    I think you are hearing it like that. It is like when I posted Kirk Herbstreit's comments that there COULD be no college football this fall. People fell all over themselves with him being "irresponsible" and how dare him. He just voiced a not so irrational opinion. COULD. We have been conditioned by our media to be a nation of absolutes, FOR or AGAINST, that there is no middle ground, even poking fun (both sides) of those in the middle for not having convictions and "wafflers". No. That's not it. It is like being a flat earther and then when Columbus came back, calling him a fraud because it didn't support your position.

    People need to relearn and sharpen their critical thinking skills, and stop letting allegiances form these opinion for them. We have lost this in this country and we are stupider and worse off for them.
     
  33. NCPitt

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    I'm not making predictions. What I know is that the infections are growing at an exponential rate. Deaths will be based on the mortality rate and will follow infections at some point.
     
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  34. JGregor

    JGregor Head Coach
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    Not wishing or hoping, but exponential increases don’t move in a straight line.
     
  35. PittFamily2

    PittFamily2 Sophomore
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    Dumb a-s all large investment banks have hired experts in all areas.
    This investment bank has hired experts / consultants who help them manage their billions and the millions and billions of their clients.

    They have retired staffers from Washington that have various areas of expertise.

    In this case they have two a panel of hired doctors, health and medical consultants who are guiding them and their clients through the pandemic.

    When you have enough money to invest and go with one of the big investment banks they help you with lots of things to help you understand how they're managing your money.

    They have political consultants too and predicted the election of Donald Trump for their clients.

    They have International consultants who provide their clients with up to date information and predictions about International hotspots, key events and possible outcomes. We had a Saudi Oil conference call recently.

    At this time with Corono Virus, Saudi Oil, and market ups and downs there are three conference call available each week.

    This isn't Schwab, or E Trade.
     
    35 PittFamily2, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  36. PittFamily2

    PittFamily2 Sophomore
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    What model? Fauci? admitted there is no model to project this. 3k a day will be dying in 2 wks???

    SMF or your other posting name @TheSpecialSauce check in with me 4/15 and we'll review how many people have died mid April.

    So in two weeks 3k will be dying per day. You people are backing yourselves into a corner you cant get out of.
    You just posted Fauci said 3k/DAAAAYYY will be dying two weeks from now.

    ok lets see.
     
    36 PittFamily2, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  37. BPKY

    BPKY Head Coach
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    You have my sympathy, for one. Your genius truly must be both a blessing and a curse.
     
  38. BPKY

    BPKY Head Coach
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    So, you're saying they don't just throw darts at a board?
     
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  39. JS School

    JS School Sophomore
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    I thought The Special Sauce disagreed with SMF on the season ticket thread? Maybe they are the same, but why would you, of all people, make an issue of this? It's pretty obvious you did the same thing.
     

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