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A couple of comments from Zeise on realignment

$8.50. It'll most likely be wrong, but I'd go with something of that essence if I had to bet on it. What's your prediction? I've only seen you "call bullshit" on everyone else's so far.
My prediction is ACC stands pat or adds teams. Either way it solidifies itself as the one of the three most powerful conference in the US. I believe in the iron clad nature of the Grant of Rights.
 
Fans don't adjust. They leave.


So we are clear, your argument is that if Alabama goes 9-3, makes the playoffs and then wins the championship that the Alabama fans will not adjust to the reality that their school can go 9-3 and still win the championship, that they will instead quit watching?

Cause that really doesn't make any sense.
 
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Yeah, they will like it less. Fans with expectations of 10-12 wins aren't going to like only having 8 or 9 wins, even with a playoff spot. I also don't expect 4-loss teams in the playoffs. I don't think 16 of 40 teams will get in. There will be some slots for Tier 2 leagues.
14 of 30 NFL teams make it. 16 of 40 P2 teams can make it. Pitt, WVU, etc can have their own playoff in a lower division
 
No, it's because you're making things up and then telling people they're wrong because only your version of what is going to happen is reality in your world. The CFP is not the NFL and until something changes, the ACC, Big12, Pac12, and ND still have some say. Even then, had everyone agreed last year, a four loss team wasn't going to be in a college football playoff. Let it go.
Those leagues have no say. College football will look exactly how the B10 and SEC want it to look
 
So we are clear, your argument is that if Alabama goes 9-3, makes the playoffs and then wins the championship that the Alabama fans will not adjust to the reality that their school can go 9-3 and still win the championship, that they will instead quit watching?

Cause that really doesn't make any sense.
Yea that makes no sense. Fans will be quite alright taking a few losses vs a schedule without the 3 automatic Ws especially when they can still compete for a NC. There will be 0 Bama fans giving up on the program because they stopped scheduling Troy and Mercer
 
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Yea that makes no sense. Fans will be quite alright taking a few losses vs a schedule without the 3 automatic Ws especially when they can still compete for a NC. There will be 0 Bama fans giving up on the program because they stopped scheduling Troy and Mercer


It's as if some people think that the only sport any of these fans have ever heard of is college football. That they don't know that NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, hell, even college basketball teams, can lose numerous games and still win a championship. And the fans are just as happy.
 
Nobody would watch it but sure
Sure they would because it wouldn’t be an SEC beat down.

I would literally bet money that there would eventually be an annual discussion how the “Tier 2” title game is better than the game featuring the SEC team obliterating B1G team.
 
So we are clear, your argument is that if Alabama goes 9-3, makes the playoffs and then wins the championship that the Alabama fans will not adjust to the reality that their school can go 9-3 and still win the championship, that they will instead quit watching?

Cause that really doesn't make any sense.
Oh they’ll be happy.

But teams like LSU, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss will rotate every year to the middle of the pack also-rans.

That’s when the real cheating and cut throat NIL deals will kick in. It will be totally out of control more than it is now.

Those boosters ain’t paying for their school to finish in the middle of the pack every other year.

Now add Clemson, FSU, and Miami to the mix… Oh man, will that be fun to watch!!!!

Not to mention what it will be like in the Big Ten when they’re finished…. LOL!
 
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He’s saying the same things I have been sharing in regards to realignment.

Marty: As a Pitt fan, I am very worried about this latest round of conference realignment. Do you think the ACC will survive? And even if it does, will the Big Ten and SEC have a monopoly on the talent?

Zeise: I hear a lot of Pitt fans with these concerns, and I think they are hitting the panic button for no reason at all. Pitt will land in a good spot and it may even be the ACC. The ACC might even survive intact. There are all kinds of rumors about Clemson, Miami and Florida State, and I just would hold off. Those teams know they are in a good spot and, quite frankly, I just don’t see this mega-conference stuff working. It will be something where the teams that are not in the two “power conferences” will be aligned enough with other good teams to still have really good contracts. And the two mega-conferences will need someone to play against. The playoff will include more than two just conferences. In short, I think Pitt and WVU fans should calm down and let the process play out.

The NCAA basketball tournament is another reason why this whole thing is not going to get blown up. It just isn’t. All of the schools in the Big Ten and most of the schools in the SEC see enough value in the NCAA tournament that they will not completely shut everyone else out of the playoffs in football. If they break away from the NCAA, are they going to then be OK with not being a part of NCAA basketball? I don’t see it. Football drives the bus, but there is still a lot of value in men’s and women’s basketball.

I also see these outrages getting much worse before they get better. What’s going to happen to the traditionally Black colleges when the power conferences eliminate them from the NCAA tournament? After all, why should the SEC or ACC share any of the funds from the tournament with the SWAC? Many of the SWAC schools stay open because of buy games and tournament proceeds. That doesn’t have to continue, and given the hypocrisy of college presidents, why would it continue?

Riley M: How much money do these college conferences realistically think they are going to make? TV ratings for college football have declined every year for almost a decade, how unrealistic is it to believe if you put these monster conferences together that they will make more than they are now per team?

Zeise: At some point you would think the golden goose will stop laying eggs. You are right — attendance and ratings are down the last seven years, and that’s not a good trend. There is still a lot of money to be made. If there wasn’t, this nonsense wouldn’t be going on. Clearly the Big Ten offers more than the Pac-12 to USC and UCLA, but I do think there will be a point where the law of diminishing returns kicks in.
This may be the most well thought out commentary I have ever read from Zeise. His points are right on the money!
 
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Oh they’ll be happy.

But teams like LSU, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss will rotate every year to the middle of the pack also-rans.

That’s when the real cheating and cut throat NIL deals will kick in. It will be totally out of control more than it is now.

Those boosters ain’t paying for there schools to finish in the middle of the pack every other year.

Now add Clemson, FSU, and Miami to the mix… Oh man, will that be fun to watch!!!!

Not to mention what it will be like in the Big Ten when their finished…. LOL!
Bama won’t be in this position forever. It’s just that they’re being coached by an individual who refuses to not be elite at all times. Process-driven individual who doesn’t even consider thinking about an outcome.

Not only a top 1%er. The best ever and then a considerable gap after that.

TOSU is a better overall football program with higher ceiling when coaching is equal.
 
Teams that are 9-3 or 8-4 will ABSOLUTELY get into a 12 team playoff. Perhaps not every season but it’ll happen frequently. (EDIT: it will obviously happen every season if SEC and B1G exclude all others from whatever playoff format they choose). Also, there’s a very real possibility that realignment isn’t complete and not just any schools are going to B1G or SEC. I would predict that if ND and a number of the bigger brands from ACC go to the Power 2 that it’ll simply be a 12 team playoff OR a respective 6 team playoff for each conference and then a championship game between the two conferences (and the SEC will literally win 18 of every 20 games).

The SEC and B1G will get approximately 8-9 selections every season if everyone included and no more realignment….the reason TV is doing this is to create a compelling regular season where Bama and TOSU have to play 6-7 legitimate regular season games annually. Unfortunately for those on here who think ratings will go down, that will absolutely not be the case.

The casual college football fan will watch much more college football because of a greater volume of good matchups of elite teams. The die-hard Pitt or WVU fan who is frustrated with current direction of sport will also watch, despite their current stances (obviously not all of us…some will hold out).
When those teams get 3 or losses, the game will be far less compelling than you think.
 
So we are clear, your argument is that if Alabama goes 9-3, makes the playoffs and then wins the championship that the Alabama fans will not adjust to the reality that their school can go 9-3 and still win the championship, that they will instead quit watching?

Cause that really doesn't make any sense.
Not Alabama, because they always have a chance to it all as long as Saban is there. But many schools without that kind of history will lose fans as the losses mount. Pitt will be one of them.
 
It's as if some people think that the only sport any of these fans have ever heard of is college football. That they don't know that NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, hell, even college basketball teams, can lose numerous games and still win a championship. And the fans are just as happy.
NFL fans don't bang the drums for a coach to be fired with 3 losses. That happens in college. Expectations for some college fans are irrationally high. They don't take any loss lightly, let alone 3 or 4.
 
Not Alabama, because they always have a chance to it all as long as Saban is there. But many schools without that kind of history will lose fans as the losses mount. Pitt will be one of them.


So in your mind if Pitt were to go 9-3 and qualify for the playoffs and win the championship that Pitt fans will bail out?

Because that makes even less sense than saying it about Alabama fans. Which is saying a lot.
 
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So in your mind if Pitt were to go 9-3 and qualify for the playoffs and win the championship that Pitt fans will bail out?

Because that makes even less sense than saying it about Alabama fans. Which is saying a lot.
NCPitt is just flat out incorrect. Any team could have 3-4 losses and fan engagement will be improved in this new model because of the schedule difficulty (ie. More difficult games).

Marriage between college football fan and number of losses is a thing because the elite programs (ie. The ones that play for titles) only play 3-4 games against “like-talented” teams and they should only lose 0-1 games. In this new format, they’ll play 6-7 against much better teams (with these additions to P2).

It definitely won’t impact one’s fandom just because there’s a 3 in the L column as opposed to 0-1.
 
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Cool. Except they had only 3 losses in the regular season.

Okay, they still finished 12th after every team had a complete body of work. How about 2018?

Final rankings:

#6 LSU 10-3
#7 Georgia 11-3
#8 Florida 10-3
#9 Texas 10-4
#12 Kentucky 10-3
#13 Washington 10-4
#14 Michigan 10-3
#15 Syracuse 10-3
#16 Texas A&M 9-4
#17 Penn State 9-4
#20 WVU 8-4
#21 Northwestern 9-5
#25 Iowa 9-4

Hey, 10-4 Texas even finished ahead of 12-1 UCF whose only loss was in a bowl game. It's almost as if the pollsters adjusted to the fact that one team played a much more difficult schedule, which led to more losses, and adjusted accordingly. Madness.

Do you think amateur boxers shouldn't move up the ranks, either? Increased competition is going to bring in a lot more money... but how will they be able to deal with the losses?

One of college football's biggest problems right now is a lack of intriguing matchups. Go through every week last year: Some have like two games out of 65 that most would consider even mildly intriguing. When you're putting games like Indiana vs Michigan on ABC at 8:00, you've got a problem. Viewers will gladly trade worse records for more appealing games. And so will fans. They know the difference between playing USC and playing Northern Arizona. Do you think Alabama fans really derive joy out of throttling Tennessee Chattanooga? Everything is still relative in the standings.
 
My prediction is ACC stands pat or adds teams. Either way it solidifies itself as the one of the three most powerful conference in the US. I believe in the iron clad nature of the Grant of Rights.
Your lips to God's ears. I too think the GOR is fairly strong or we would have heard something by now from Clemson or FSU. We shall see
 
So in your mind if Pitt were to go 9-3 and qualify for the playoffs and win the championship that Pitt fans will bail out?

Because that makes even less sense than saying it about Alabama fans. Which is saying a lot.
Pitt fans will bail after 3 losses. They will not make the playoffs with 3 losses.
 
NCPitt is just flat out incorrect. Any team could have 3-4 losses and fan engagement will be improved in this new model because of the schedule difficulty (ie. More difficult games).

Marriage between college football fan and number of losses is a thing because the elite programs (ie. The ones that play for titles) only play 3-4 games against “like-talented” teams and they should only lose 0-1 games. In this new format, they’ll play 6-7 against much better teams (with these additions to P2).

It definitely won’t impact one’s fandom just because there’s a 3 in the L column as opposed to 0-1.
All I can say is ... we will see who is correct.

Fans who are used to and expect 1-2 losses will not be happy to 3 or more losses no matter who those losses are against. If anything, those become a measuring stick that shows their team isn't as elite as they thought. Anyone other die-hard fans will bail.
 
Okay, they still finished 12th after every team had a complete body of work. How about 2018?

Final rankings:

#6 LSU 10-3
#7 Georgia 11-3
#8 Florida 10-3
#9 Texas 10-4
#12 Kentucky 10-3
#13 Washington 10-4
#14 Michigan 10-3
#15 Syracuse 10-3
#16 Texas A&M 9-4
#17 Penn State 9-4
#20 WVU 8-4
#21 Northwestern 9-5
#25 Iowa 9-4

Hey, 10-4 Texas even finished ahead of 12-1 UCF whose only loss was in a bowl game. It's almost as if the pollsters adjusted to the fact that one team played a much more difficult schedule, which led to more losses, and adjusted accordingly. Madness.

Do you think amateur boxers shouldn't move up the ranks, either? Increased competition is going to bring in a lot more money... but how will they be able to deal with the losses?

One of college football's biggest problems right now is a lack of intriguing matchups. Go through every week last year: Some have like two games out of 65 that most would consider even mildly intriguing. When you're putting games like Indiana vs Michigan on ABC at 8:00, you've got a problem. Viewers will gladly trade worse records for more appealing games. And so will fans. They know the difference between playing USC and playing Northern Arizona. Do you think Alabama fans really derive joy out of throttling Tennessee Chattanooga? Everything is still relative in the standings.
The problem is that games with teams having 3 or more losses loss their luster.

Also, polls are irrelevant in your scenario as it becomes a matter of where teams are in their league rankings.

One more thing, quit showing the final records with 13-14 games. The only record that matters is the regular season of 12 games. Teams with 8-4 records ain't making the playoffs.
 
The problem is that games with teams having 3 or more losses loss their luster.

Also, polls are irrelevant in your scenario as it becomes a matter of where teams are in their league rankings.

One more thing, quit showing the final records with 13-14 games. The only record that matters is the regular season of 12 games. Teams with 8-4 records ain't making the playoffs.

Lol. Do you understand that the records become even worse if I don't use the rankings? League play is a much more accurate representation of what the schedules will look like. Here are the 2021 conference records by team.

Go ahead and calculate each team's winning percentage and multiply it by 12. Tell me what you come up with, and tell me who would get into a 12 - 16 team playoff and what their records would be.

SEC West:
Bama 7-1
Ole Miss 6-2
Arkansas 4-4
Mississippi State 4-4
Texas A&M 4-4
Auburn 3-5
LSU 3-5

SEC East:
Georgia 8-0
Kentucky 5-3
Tennessee 4-4
Missouri 3-5
South Carolina 3-5
Florida 2-6
Vandy 0-8

Big Ten East
Michigan 8-1
Ohio State 8-1
MSU 7-2
Penn State 4-5
Maryland 3-6
Rutgers 2-7
Indiana 0-9

Big Ten West
Iowa 7-2
Minnesota 6-3
Wisconsin 6-3
Purdue 6-3
Illinois 4-5
Nebraska 1-8
Northwestern 1-8


Texas 3-6
Oklahoma 7-2
UCLA 6-3
USC 3-6

Not only will 8-4 teams make the playoffs, but so will 7-5 teams in some years.
 
Sounds more like he’s whistling past the graveyard to me. This $hit’s happening, right now.
 
Yea that makes no sense. Fans will be quite alright taking a few losses vs a schedule without the 3 automatic Ws especially when they can still compete for a NC. There will be 0 Bama fans giving up on the program because they stopped scheduling Troy and Mercer
I don't think that is quite right. No, Bama fans aren't going to bail. The rest of the country will bail. How many more people tuned into GA-Bama in the national championship game versus the SEC title game? Probably not very many more. Wasn't that the lowest rated game on the CFP era?

Like many have said, lets wait and see what they come up with. But I can't see how the numbers are going to get better (in some cases double or triple) when there will be less teams and more repeat match-ups (best of three?)
 
the basketball side of things does seem to be overlooked or forgotten. Not a terrible point by Zeise bringing it up. i know football is #1 but that whole march madness thingy makes a few bucks as well.
If these schools end up breaking off and doing their own thing for all sports (which I don’t think is in the immediate future), I can see the attraction behind adding programs like Duke and Kansas.

They’re recognizable brands that’ll provide a boost in basketball while giving the football blue bloods an easy win every year. Seems like a win/win to me.
 
Yea that makes no sense. Fans will be quite alright taking a few losses vs a schedule without the 3 automatic Ws especially when they can still compete for a NC. There will be 0 Bama fans giving up on the program because they stopped scheduling Troy and Mercer
I wouldn’t have agreed with this ten years ago, but I think it’s accurate now because of how ESPN has made the national championship the be-all-end-all in the CFP era. For example, I don’t think SEC schools are so quick to run off a coach just because they lose a few games; I think it’s because they’re eliminated from playoff contention and the consolation prizes (e.g. 9-win seasons, major bowl games) no longer have as much value in their eyes.

If there are guaranteed automatic playoff berths involved in an expanded system, I think fanbases will adjust their expectations accordingly.
 
The problem is that games with teams having 3 or more losses loss their luster.

Also, polls are irrelevant in your scenario as it becomes a matter of where teams are in their league rankings.

One more thing, quit showing the final records with 13-14 games. The only record that matters is the regular season of 12 games. Teams with 8-4 records ain't making the playoffs.
These 2 conferences are going to get tougher and tougher. Even the best teams in the country are more likely to have 1-2 losses each year instead of 0-1. In a normal distribution, the 10-15th ranked teams will have 3-5 losses (depending on year, most likely) instead of 2-4.

It’s math. Of course, there will be outlier types of seasons but this will routinely be the case.

You are stating that fan interest will dwindle only because they have a 3-4 in L column despite still being one of the best options for a playoff. That’s nonsensical.

Fan interest is going to increase for fans of the P2 and the casual college fan who really enjoys watching “good” football with equal talent on both sides of the ball.
 
I wouldn’t have agreed with this ten years ago, but I think it’s accurate now because of how ESPN has made the national championship the be-all-end-all in the CFP era. For example, I don’t think SEC schools are so quick to run off a coach just because they lose a few games; I think it’s because they’re eliminated from playoff contention and the consolation prizes (e.g. 9-win seasons, major bowl games) no longer have as much value in their eyes.

If there are guaranteed automatic playoff berths involved in an expanded system, I think fanbases will adjust their expectations accordingly.
And this is all a good thing. I hear people say that players will also opt out of playoff games (like they currently do with bowl games).

Of course they won’t. Total nonsense.

The bowl system is broken and has been for years. Gimme more playoff games and less (if any) bowls.

If a program doesn’t have a prayer at the playoff then schedule an additional regular season game. That would be much more interesting than a game/event that is weeks after the conclusion of the regular season.
 
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Lol. Do you understand that the records become even worse if I don't use the rankings? League play is a much more accurate representation of what the schedules will look like. Here are the 2021 conference records by team.

Go ahead and calculate each team's winning percentage and multiply it by 12. Tell me what you come up with, and tell me who would get into a 12 - 16 team playoff and what their records would be.

SEC West:
Bama 7-1
Ole Miss 6-2
Arkansas 4-4
Mississippi State 4-4
Texas A&M 4-4
Auburn 3-5
LSU 3-5

SEC East:
Georgia 8-0
Kentucky 5-3
Tennessee 4-4
Missouri 3-5
South Carolina 3-5
Florida 2-6
Vandy 0-8

Big Ten East
Michigan 8-1
Ohio State 8-1
MSU 7-2
Penn State 4-5
Maryland 3-6
Rutgers 2-7
Indiana 0-9

Big Ten West
Iowa 7-2
Minnesota 6-3
Wisconsin 6-3
Purdue 6-3
Illinois 4-5
Nebraska 1-8
Northwestern 1-8


Texas 3-6
Oklahoma 7-2
UCLA 6-3
USC 3-6

Not only will 8-4 teams make the playoffs, but so will 7-5 teams in some years.
You aren't making enough sense to bother trying to understand. Using the current leagues and their records is 100% irrelevant.
 
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These 2 conferences are going to get tougher and tougher. Even the best teams in the country are more likely to have 1-2 losses each year instead of 0-1. In a normal distribution, the 10-15th ranked teams will have 3-5 losses (depending on year, most likely) instead of 2-4.

It’s math. Of course, there will be outlier types of seasons but this will routinely be the case.

You are stating that fan interest will dwindle only because they have a 3-4 in L column despite still being one of the best options for a playoff. That’s nonsensical.

Fan interest is going to increase for fans of the P2 and the casual college fan who really enjoys watching “good” football with equal talent on both sides of the ball.
I simply don't agree. If your scenario happens, college FB will have a short lifespan because fans will turn away. Few fans will watch a 6-3 Texas play a 5-4 USC.
 
You aren't making enough sense to bother trying to understand. Using the current leagues and their records is 100% irrelevant.

It's literally the best example of the competition they will be facing, as it eliminates the G5 and FCS games from the equation. In fact, the schedules will actually get a little tougher because no one is looking to add programs like Rutgers and Washington State to these expanded conferences. I think I make plenty of sense. As for you understanding... well.
 
I simply don't agree. If your scenario happens, college FB will have a short lifespan because fans will turn away. Few fans will watch a 6-3 Texas play a 5-4 USC.
This is my thought as well, I think many underestimate the egos and lust to appear dominant that drive so many big money College football boosters. They are Type A on steroids. After decades of steering their programs to double figure wins and permanence in the Top 10, the slippage to mortal status is going to be a tough adjustment. And ‘regular’ fans are going to be underwhelmed by the decent to parity and the ordinary matchups in the CFP. There’s always a lot more drama with two 12-0 teams than they will be with 9-3 playing 8-4.

Pitt fans especially can’t come to grips with this, because our own boosters were long since neutered by the Pitt admin.
 
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