A Prediction

[DC_Area_Panther]

Putting on the blue and gold glasses for optimism:

With Horton back--and assuming no more injuries or problems and no Covid cancellations --IMHO, this teams potential ceiling for this year could now be as high as 13 wins.

My WAG for this ceiling to Pitt's record going into the ACC tourney (and depending on whether the @ Va Tech game is made up) could either be 13-17 (8-11 ACC) or 13-18 (8-12 ACC).

This guess presumes Horton adds enough to make Pitt a few points (3-4) better per game going forward than they were in those 1-point losses.

Taking those blue and gold glasses off--

The history of late season collapses may make even getting to ten wins by season's end problematic.

But, at least for now, there appears to still be hope for a half-way decent finish to the season.

Hoping the path to getting some ACC wins starts today vs BC!!

 

[gary2]

Putting on the blue and gold glasses for optimism:

With Horton back--and assuming no more injuries or problems and no Covid cancellations --IMHO, this teams potential ceiling for this year could now be as high as 13 wins.

My WAG for this ceiling to Pitt's record going into the ACC tourney (and depending on whether the @ Va Tech game is made up) could either be 13-17 (8-11 ACC) or 13-18 (8-12 ACC).

This guess presumes Horton adds enough to make Pitt a few points (3-4) better per game going forward than they were in those 1-point losses.

Taking those blue and gold glasses off--

The history of late season collapses may make even getting to ten wins by season's end problematic.

But, at least for now, there appears to still be hope for a half-way decent finish to the season.

Hoping the path to getting some ACC wins starts today vs BC!!

Today’s game could be a tipping point in either direction.

 

[iMissTheOldDayss]

Hortons charges have been refiled

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I have probably jinxed things. We shall see if he is suspended again.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I have probably jinxed things. We shall see if he is suspended again.

I'd doubt it. They knew the charges were likely to be refiled when they reinstated him.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Well without him the potential for 8 wins probably drops to 2-4 wins, IMHO. At least we scraped one out today.

 

[BreakingPitt]

"oh no we suck again"

 

[iMissTheOldDayss]

Well without him the potential for 8 wins probably drops to 2-4 wins, IMHO. At least we scraped one out today.

Ithiel Horton is a SIX WIN player…? Jesus Christ guy

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Next Year’s Roster
Hugley - Legit ACC Starter for any team
Burton - ACC Starter for mid level team
Femi - ACC Starter for a lower level team
Horton - ACC Starter for a lower level team
Jeffress - Bench guy for a mid level team
Collier - Bench guy for a mid level team

This team is nowhere close to making the NCAA tournament in Year 5 of his tenure, and this is the absolute best case scenario if everyone comes back.

 

[iMissTheOldDayss]

Next Year’s Roster
Hugley - Legit ACC Starter for any team
Burton - ACC Starter for mid level team
Femi - ACC Starter for a lower level team
Horton - ACC Starter for a lower level team
Jeffress - Bench guy for a mid level team
Collier - Bench guy for a mid level team

This team is nowhere close to making the NCAA tournament in Year 5 of his tenure, and this is the absolute best case scenario if everyone comes back.

Noah should honestly just focus on his education

 

[pittjas]

Next Year’s Roster
Hugley - Legit ACC Starter for any team
Burton - ACC Starter for mid level team
Femi - ACC Starter for a lower level team
Horton - ACC Starter for a lower level team
Jeffress - Bench guy for a mid level team
Collier - Bench guy for a mid level team

This team is nowhere close to making the NCAA tournament in Year 5 of his tenure, and this is the absolute best case scenario if everyone comes back.

Literally about a 3% chance all those guys are back.

 

[Parkview57]

Hugley and Horton, pretty good combo. Perhaps Capel should be scouring the country for players in legal trouble. He could become Major Reisman, of The Dirty Dozen Fame and bring in 12 players throughout the country who have been arrested/suspended for various crimes like assault, criminal conspiracy, etc. I bet one could find a pretty solid group out there.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Literally about a 3% chance all those guys are back.

Yea - I agree. My point was that even in the absolute best case scenario they aren’t close. If you take Hugley away, then we are definitely worse than the last Stallings team.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Ithiel Horton is a SIX WIN player…? Jesus Christ guy

As I pointed out in another thread, the point spread was 3.5 before the news of Horton not playing came out. At tip off, the point spread at most places was either 3 or 3.5. So the people who put their money where their mouth is not only don't think that Horton is a six win player, the really don't think he's worth much at all. Shocking!

Or, well, not.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Ithiel Horton is a SIX WIN player…? Jesus Christ guy

In this instance maybe yes because there are at least 6-7 potentially close loses (1-4 point differential) --looking at Sagarin's computer ratings and Pitt's remaining schedule. These potentially close loses could in theory be flipped to close wins if the team is 4- 5 points better overall. That is Pitt's current situation given this year's generally overall weak ACC.

Four or 5 points could be the difference Horton could make by simply spreading the defense with his threat to score the 3-ball and his ability to shoot FTs at a high percentage late in games vs the FT capability of certain other Pitt players.

I agree it would be a totally different scenario and implausible for Horton to make that much of a W-L difference if we were talking about potentially turning around expected/predicted double digit losses.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

As I pointed out in another thread, the point spread was 3.5 before the news of Horton not playing came out. At tip off, the point spread at most places was either 3 or 3.5. So the people who put their money where their mouth is not only don't think that Horton is a six win player, the really don't think he's worth much at all. Shocking!

Or, well, not.

Well, IMHO, they were working off insufficient data. When I believed Horton was going to play I thought 3.5 was as much as 3-5 points too low.

But that may explain why I am not foolish enough to ever bet on sports events.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Well, IMHO, they were working off insufficient data. When I believed Horton was going to play I thought 3.5 was as much as 3-5 points too low.

But that may explain why I am not foolish enough to ever bet on sports events.

I am pretty sure that the serious players and the casinos have far, far more information than you do.

Seriously, you think that the point spread didn't change much because the line makers and the sharps don't know much about Pitt basketball? Really?