A win today = NCAAT and Double Bye

[Sean Miller Fan]

Cant clinch the double bye but it would be all but impossible to finish lower than 4th if we win. That's important, not just that it makes easier to win the ACCT, but it means you avoid a Q3/4 game on Wednesday. If we finish 5th and play FSU or BC or VT, that's a game we could potentially lose which could knock us out of the NCAAT. I guess, of course, those teams could win their Wednesday game and still beat us on Thursday but I dont think they beat Duke, NC State, etc.

As for the NCAAT, in my mind, we are in with a win, even if we lose the next 3. I cant say I'd feel super safe at 21-11 but I would be pretty confident we'd make it, probably Dayton but we'd be in.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Cant clinch the double bye but it would be all but impossible to finish lower than 4th if we win. That's important, not just that it makes easier to win the ACCT, but it means you avoid a Q3/4 game on Wednesday. If we finish 5th and play FSU or BC or VT, that's a game we could potentially lose which could knock us out of the NCAAT. I guess, of course, those teams could win their Wednesday game and still beat us on Thursday but I dont think they beat Duke, NC State, etc.

As for the NCAAT, in my mind, we are in with a win, even if we lose the next 3. I cant say I'd feel super safe at 21-11 but I would be pretty confident we'd make it, probably Dayton but we'd be in.

If we win today but lose the next 3, I don't have confidence at all that we're in the NCAAT. In spite of the NET and analytics nonsense, the committee does look at how you played going into the end of the season and in your conference tournament. If we lose to ND and Miami then lose a first round game in the ACCT, that's not a good look for Pitt. At best, we'd be in Dayton. I think then the NIT becomes the most likely end to our season. And knowing how biased these committees are and how focused they are on NET's and analytics while trying to say they're not biased, Pitt would be on the outside looking in.

At a bare minimum, we must win today and against ND. Then at least 1 game in the ACCT to make sure we're in the NCAAT.

 

[Pitt2006]

Losing 3 in a row would not be ideal, but would still be 7-5 on the road, 7-8 road/neutral and I think 6-4 last 10.

Today is a huge bubble day because if Pitt wins the following may also occur:
WVU vs. Kansas - Likely WVU loss
Arkansas vs Bama - Likely Ark loss
Arizona vs ASU - Likely ASU loss
KSU vs OKST - possible OKST loss
TexA&M vs Miss St
SDST vs New Mexico
Virginia vs UNC
Auburn vs Kentucky
Mich State vs Iowa

Tommorow
NW vs Maryland
PSU Rutgers
Mich Wisconsin

So a lot of shuffling, but likely does secure it.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If we win today but lose the next 3, I don't have confidence at all that we're in the NCAAT. In spite of the NET and analytics nonsense, the committee does look at how you played going into the end of the season and in your conference tournament. If we lose to ND and Miami then lose a first round game in the ACCT, that's not a good look for Pitt. At best, we'd be in Dayton. I think then the NIT becomes the most likely end to our season. And knowing how biased these committees are and how focused they are on NET's and analytics while trying to say they're not biased, Pitt would be on the outside looking in.

At a bare minimum, we must win today and against ND. Then at least 1 game in the ACCT to make sure we're in the NCAAT.

We dont need to go 3-1 in the next 4 just to make it to Dayton. That is insane.

Also the committee doesn't look at last 10 games anymore. Winning the today and losing the last 3 and we probably still make it. There is such a wide gap between Pitt and the teams on the outside. For example, on Bracket Matrix, Pitt is the 7th to last team in and in 81 of 81 brackets. The 1st team out is Utah State, in 7 of 81. The 2nd teams out are TT and PSU, in 3 of 81. Going 1-3 isnt great but all those teams are going 3-1 or 4-0 to overtake us

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

We dont need to go 3-1 in the next 4 just to make it to Dayton. That is insane.

Win the next two, which means avoiding two potential bad losses, and we are a stone cold lock. And we'd be no where near Dayton.

Unless the committee puts us in Columbus. Columbus is pretty close to Dayton.

 

[Sam Young 23]

I think to guarantee Pitt in the field we better win the next 2. If not, then need to beat Miami. Pitt metrics just aren't very good. Which is crazy.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Cant clinch the double bye but it would be all but impossible to finish lower than 4th if we win. That's important, not just that it makes easier to win the ACCT, but it means you avoid a Q3/4 game on Wednesday. If we finish 5th and play FSU or BC or VT, that's a game we could potentially lose which could knock us out of the NCAAT. I guess, of course, those teams could win their Wednesday game and still beat us on Thursday but I dont think they beat Duke, NC State, etc.

As for the NCAAT, in my mind, we are in with a win, even if we lose the next 3. I cant say I'd feel super safe at 21-11 but I would be pretty confident we'd make it, probably Dayton but we'd be in.

Well we lose the tiebreakers to Duke and Clemson so there a number of scenarios where the double bye would require 15 wins.

Clemson is beating NC State by 25 at NC State today and have UVA away and ND at home so 14 wins seems in the bag and they could get 15. NC State will be out of the double bye discussion. Miami will win their 15th game today. So UVA would have to lose 2 of their last last 3 to stay below 15 wins. They play at UNC and have Clemson and finish with UL at home. Duke has to run the table to get to 14 and have VT at home today and NC state at home and finish at UNC. UNC beating UVA and Duke at home would help.

Clemson appears to be playing themselves back into the field crushing Syracuse and assuming they win big today at NC State.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Win the next two, which means avoiding two potential bad losses, and we are a stone cold lock. And we'd be no where near Dayton.

Unless the committee puts us in Columbus. Columbus is pretty close to Dayton.

What about 1-3?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What about 1-3?

Probably. But that means at least one more bad loss. A really bad loss if one of them is Notre Dame. And it might depend on who the fourth one is. Because that could be a loss that doesn't really hurt, or it could be a loss that is crushing.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Probably. But that means at least one more bad loss. A really bad loss if one of them is Notre Dame. And it might depend on who the fourth one is. Because that could be a loss that doesn't really hurt, or it could be a loss that is crushing.

ND beat MSU by 18 and has lost 7 games decided in the last minute and it’s Mike Brey’s last home game. I understand the metrics say it’s a “bad” (Q3) loss but really it’s not. ESPN analytics gives ND a 32% chance of winning.

With Clemson winning big today, it’s safe to say that home loss will remain as a Q2 giving Pitt only one Q3/Q4 loss Vs FSU.

Based on those analytics, the chances of Pitt winning the next 2 are 53%.

I also think Pitt could be impacted by Other ACC teams like Clemson and UNC. NC State seems to be a given but is losing their 7th ACC game by almost 30 points at home. I don’t think 7 ACC teams will get in.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Probably. But that means at least one more bad loss. A really bad loss if one of them is Notre Dame. And it might depend on who the fourth one is. Because that could be a loss that doesn't really hurt, or it could be a loss that is crushing.

Lets say we lose to ND, Miami, and NC State.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Lets say we lose to ND, Miami, and NC State.

Probably. But we'd probably be sweating it.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

ND beat MSU by 18 and has lost 7 games decided in the last minute and it’s Mike Brey’s last home game. I understand the metrics say it’s a “bad” (Q3) loss but really it’s not.

Michigan State was a good win for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame's second best win is, ah, Youngstown State? And their third best win is, well, Lipscomb?

They lost to Boston College. Twice. They lost to Florida State. Twice. They lost to Georgia Tech. They lost to Louisville. They lost to St. Bonaventure. They are 2-12 against the Pomeroy top 150. Which is bad. But is also means that they are only 8-6 against teams not in the top 150.

But this discussion shows why people can't understand Pitt's NET ranking. Too many people simply will not allow themselves to admit that Notre Dame, and Louisville, and Georgia Tech, and Florida State are bad basketball teams. Teams that a good team should expect to beat, every time. And, based on the results of the season to date, that good teams do beat, pretty much every time.

Not only do the metrics say that losing to Notre Dame is a bad loss, anyone who looks at how they have actually played this year knows that losing to Notre Dame is a bad loss.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Michigan State was a good win for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame's second best win is, ah, Youngstown State? And their third best win is, well, Lipscomb?

They lost to Boston College. Twice. They lost to Florida State. Twice. They lost to Georgia Tech. They lost to Louisville. They lost to St. Bonaventure. They are 2-12 against the Pomeroy top 150. Which is bad. But is also means that they are only 8-6 against teams not in the top 150.

But this discussion shows why people can't understand Pitt's NET ranking. Too many people simply will not allow themselves to admit that Notre Dame, and Louisville, and Georgia Tech, and Florida State are bad basketball teams. Teams that a good team should expect to beat, every time. And, based on the results of the season to date, that good teams do beat, pretty much every time.

Not only do the metrics say that losing to Notre Dame is a bad loss, anyone who looks at how they have actually played this year knows that losing to Notre Dame is a bad loss.

I understand NET but have also watched ND the last 2 weeks where they lost to VT by 6, at Duke by 4, at UVA by 2 and UNC by 4. Yes they have a bad record but are very competitive against quality opponents.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

J

Probably. But we'd probably be sweating it.

I mean yea, I wouldn't feel super safe but lets say we win today. We are very safely in at the moment. Lets say we lose on Tuesday, bad loss I know since Brey decided to take a paycheck this year without actually coaching. The idea that DAYTON would come down to having to pull a moderate upset at Miami or a mild upset vs NC State/Duke/UNC seems completely absurd. Basically, if we dont win these next 2, some feel we need to pull an upset win in Miami/ACCT to make it. I dont think

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I understand NET but have also watched ND the last 2 weeks where they lost to VT by 6, at Duke by 4, at UVA by 2 and UNC by 4. Yes they have a bad record but are very competitive against quality opponents.

They are just good enough to lose. Every time they play a team with a pulse.

Except Michigan State.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Only 1 or a ND loss will tip scales perception wise. A lot will drop them out imo