Pittsburgh
Coach: Pat Narduzzi (36-29, sixth year)
2019: 8-5 (4-4 in ACC), 49th in SP+
2020 projection: 7-5 (4-4), 42nd
Five best returning players: S Paris Ford, C Jimmy Morrissey, DE Rashad Weaver, DE Patrick Jones II, DT Jaylen Twyman
If you're lucky, injuries will help you in the future tense as much as they hurt you in the present tense. A season-ending injury to a star means you spend a year finding and developing other potential weapons, and if/when the star returns the next season, the squad ends up better overall.
Sometimes, strangely enough, they help in both the present and future.
Heading into 2019, Pitt had averaged just a 52.8 ranking in defensive SP+ in four seasons under Narduzzi. The Panthers had to replace half of their two-deep in the front seven, and it appeared star end Weaver would have to carry a lot of weight for the defense to hold up.
Instead, Weaver suffered a season-ending knee injury in fall camp. Tackle Keyshon Camp went down in Week 1, too. Narduzzi had to lean on end Patrick Jones II and a ton of key sophomores.
Instead of collapsing with an untested lineup, Pitt surged from 53rd to 12th in defensive SP+. Jones and three sophomores -- end Deslin Alexandre, tackle Twyman and linebacker Cam Bright -- combined for 43.5 tackles for loss and 25 sacks. Sophomore safety Ford, a local product and the most highly touted recruit of the Narduzzi era, took a massive step forward, too. He led a nasty secondary that ranked third in the nation in passing success rate allowed.
Ford, free safety Damar Hamlin and corner Damarri Mathis all return, as does everyone mentioned previously in the front seven. Weaver and Camp are back, too. It seems the Panthers could sustain or improve on last season's sudden gains. If they get anything whatsoever from the offense, the Panthers could contend in the Coastal.
So ... about that offense.
Safe to say, the first-year partnership of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple and quarterback Kenny Pickett didn't go as planned. Pickett threw for 3,098 yards, but in more than 40 pass attempts per game. His passer rating (122.4) ranked 101st in FBS, his Total QBR (55.3) 74th. He torched two decent MAC opponents but threw nine picks to eight touchdowns in conference play. The Panthers weren't very good at staying on schedule and were dreadful once they fell behind the chains. And that was with star receiver Maurice Ffrench, now a Kansas City Chief.
The skill corps still has experience -- backs A.J. Davis, Vincent Davis and Todd Sibley Jr. and wide receivers Taysir Mack, Shocky Jacques-Louis and Jared Wayne all return, and Florida tight end transfer Lucas Krull joins the mix. Plus, the line returns not only all-conference center Morrissey, but also four other linemen with starting experience.
Pitt is scheduled to play six opponents projected 58th or worse, which should boost the win total a decent amount, but five opponents 31st or better will create a low ceiling if the QB position doesn't improve. Either Pickett, sophomore Nick Patti, redshirt freshman Davis Beville or, if eligible, Arizona State transfer Joey Yellen need to raise the bar significantly.
Coach: Pat Narduzzi (36-29, sixth year)
2019: 8-5 (4-4 in ACC), 49th in SP+
2020 projection: 7-5 (4-4), 42nd
Five best returning players: S Paris Ford, C Jimmy Morrissey, DE Rashad Weaver, DE Patrick Jones II, DT Jaylen Twyman
If you're lucky, injuries will help you in the future tense as much as they hurt you in the present tense. A season-ending injury to a star means you spend a year finding and developing other potential weapons, and if/when the star returns the next season, the squad ends up better overall.
Sometimes, strangely enough, they help in both the present and future.
Heading into 2019, Pitt had averaged just a 52.8 ranking in defensive SP+ in four seasons under Narduzzi. The Panthers had to replace half of their two-deep in the front seven, and it appeared star end Weaver would have to carry a lot of weight for the defense to hold up.
Instead, Weaver suffered a season-ending knee injury in fall camp. Tackle Keyshon Camp went down in Week 1, too. Narduzzi had to lean on end Patrick Jones II and a ton of key sophomores.
Instead of collapsing with an untested lineup, Pitt surged from 53rd to 12th in defensive SP+. Jones and three sophomores -- end Deslin Alexandre, tackle Twyman and linebacker Cam Bright -- combined for 43.5 tackles for loss and 25 sacks. Sophomore safety Ford, a local product and the most highly touted recruit of the Narduzzi era, took a massive step forward, too. He led a nasty secondary that ranked third in the nation in passing success rate allowed.
Ford, free safety Damar Hamlin and corner Damarri Mathis all return, as does everyone mentioned previously in the front seven. Weaver and Camp are back, too. It seems the Panthers could sustain or improve on last season's sudden gains. If they get anything whatsoever from the offense, the Panthers could contend in the Coastal.
So ... about that offense.
Safe to say, the first-year partnership of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple and quarterback Kenny Pickett didn't go as planned. Pickett threw for 3,098 yards, but in more than 40 pass attempts per game. His passer rating (122.4) ranked 101st in FBS, his Total QBR (55.3) 74th. He torched two decent MAC opponents but threw nine picks to eight touchdowns in conference play. The Panthers weren't very good at staying on schedule and were dreadful once they fell behind the chains. And that was with star receiver Maurice Ffrench, now a Kansas City Chief.
The skill corps still has experience -- backs A.J. Davis, Vincent Davis and Todd Sibley Jr. and wide receivers Taysir Mack, Shocky Jacques-Louis and Jared Wayne all return, and Florida tight end transfer Lucas Krull joins the mix. Plus, the line returns not only all-conference center Morrissey, but also four other linemen with starting experience.
Pitt is scheduled to play six opponents projected 58th or worse, which should boost the win total a decent amount, but five opponents 31st or better will create a low ceiling if the QB position doesn't improve. Either Pickett, sophomore Nick Patti, redshirt freshman Davis Beville or, if eligible, Arizona State transfer Joey Yellen need to raise the bar significantly.
