An Early Guess at 2019-2020 Minutes

[DC_Area_Panther]

Thought it might be fun to take a WAG at this coming season's PT minutes based on the hoops roster as it exists today.

Four Assumptions underlying this PT WAG---

1. If Capel adds anyone else to the roster for next season (he may or may not) it won't be a player who will see significant PT in the coming season. Assume it will either be a transfer (or two) needing to sit out a year or else a developmental guy or two.

2. Chukwuka won't be recovered enough to play much, if at all, before very late in the season so he won't be assigned any minutes.

3. Returning guys, other than Chukwuka, who played a lot last season will have roughly the same total minutes of PT as last season.

4. None of the incoming freshmen will be red-shirted or solely limited to garbage time minutes.


A PT WAG (other is a guess at garbage time minutes):

Center (5)--Brown 19, Hamilton 17, Coulibaly 2, other 2

PF (4) --Toney 13, Coulibaly 12, Champagnie 12, other 3

SF (3)--Toney 17, Drumgoole 15, Champagnie 5, other 3

Guard (2)--McGowens 19, Murphy 17, Drumgoole 3. other 1

PG (1) --Johnson 30, McGowens 9, other 1

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Johnson 32
McGowens 8

McGowens 24
Murphy 16

Toney 20
Drumgoole 20

Hamilton 20
Champagnie 10
Toney 10

Brown 25
Coulibaly 8
Hamilton 7

 

[FireballZ]

Murphy sure looks like he's going to play more than 16-17 minutes a game to me. If N'dye played 21 MPG last season, I think Murph matches that.

 

[TFloss]

1: X 34 Murph 6
2: Trey 28 Murph 12
3: Drumgoole 22 Toney 10 Trey 5 Champagnie 3
4: Toney 20 Hamilton 12 Champagnie 8
5: Brown 25 Coulibaly 10 Hamilton 5

I'm really bullish on Drumgoole this year. We need him. I see some 3 guard lineups with X, Murph, Trey happening this year.

The 80 minutes at the 4 and the 5 could go any which way. It's literally 3 unknowns plus Toney who is out of position and Brown who is an enigma.

 

[Chescat]

First of all...your four assumptions:

1. I tend to agree for the most part. As you know, I would like to see a pg or
combo guard. If he were good enough and got Sidy's minutes that wouldn't
be a bad thing. If Capel were to add, I have to believe it would be post grads.
Are there even ANY worthwhile Developmental types left?

2. Agree again for the most part. I'll defer until I really know about how
he recovers.

3. The returnees that matter are X, Trey, Toney, and Brown.
X.....I hope he has a little less playing time, because I feel he wore
out towards the end of the season
Trey..... same as above.
Toney..... hard to figure with him. He'll have some competition with
Drumgoole, and Champagnie.
Brown..... I hope his minutes increase because he improves. If he
doesn't improve, he'll lose minutes to Hamilton.

4. I have no idea on this one until we at least find out how they acclimate
to college ball. However, I tend to agree with you especially if there's
no more recruits added to the roster.

Number of minutes per player? I can't even take a "WAG" at this point.
Soooooooooo.....I'll go with your "WAG."

 

[bummer01]

WAG?

 

[Pitt2006]

I also hope X and Trey's minutes go down. It will be a sign we have better depth and less minutes hopefully mean fresher and more competitive legs towards the end of the season.

 

[Chescat]

I also hope X and Trey's minutes go down. It will be a sign we have better depth and less minutes hopefully mean fresher and more competitive legs towards the end of the season.

I'm glad you agree. Also, as previously posted.....it would be good if Brown's
minutes went UP.
That would most likely be a sign that his game has improved and he
deserved to be on the floor for a longer period of time.

 

[TJFAIRLIE]

WAG?

Wild Ass Guess

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I also hope X and Trey's minutes go down. It will be a sign we have better depth and less minutes hopefully mean fresher and more competitive legs towards the end of the season.

One played 31.8 minutes per game last season and the other played 27.8. If they are as good as we hope they are going to be both of them will play more than that. Pretty much all high level ACC starters do (or at least have the capability to).

The difference is that after a year of playing and practicing at this level and a year of strength training and conditioning both will be better able to handle a greater load.

 

[Chescat]

One played 31.8 minutes per game last season and the other played 27.8. If they are as good as we hope they are going to be both of them will play more than that. Pretty much all high level ACC starters do (or at least have the capability to).

The difference is that after a year of playing and practicing at this level and a year of strength training and conditioning both will be better able to handle a greater load.

I could go with the 27 minutes. It's only a difference of four minutes, or two
minutes per half, but the minutes X logged last year took a toll IMO. It's not
just the games themselves....it's the practice time, traveling, going back and
forth to classes, study time, and let's face it...they do party. There are also
more ACC games this year.
Thirty plus games starting in early November, takes a toll. I don't care how
young they are, or how good the strength training and conditioning is. Of
course it's important that there's a backup who can log some minutes. If
there isn't, fatigue is a natural result. My concern is for X more than Trey.
Right now there are options at the 2 guard, not the case at pg.
Obviously there are college players who actually log more than the 31.8,
but IMO it's too much. I would go with 28-30 as an acceptable
scenario.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

One played 31.8 minutes per game last season and the other played 27.8. If they are as good as we hope they are going to be both of them will play more than that. Pretty much all high level ACC starters do (or at least have the capability to).

The difference is that after a year of playing and practicing at this level and a year of strength training and conditioning both will be better able to handle a greater load.

I agree and was thinking the same thing. I assume X will be about flat and hope Trey's minutes increase by 3 or 4 per game. Your horses need to play low 30s per game.

 

[Drew1208]

Maturity and discipline matters too.
X and more so Trey, would often get dumb fouls out of either frustration and or inexperience.
Trey's growth especially is somewhat reliant on his mental maturity.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I agree and was thinking the same thing. I assume X will be about flat and hope Trey's minutes increase by 3 or 4 per game. Your horses need to play low 30s per game.

I think 32 should be the target for your high level players, assuming they can handle that. And I think with a year under their belt they both will be able to handle that. Some nights that 32 becomes 35 or 36, other nights it becomes 28 based on game situations. But 32's a good starting point.

 

[Jeffburgh]

Official NCAA stats, there were over 250 D1 players last year that played 33.2 minutes or more last year.

I do agree with those who believe X and Trey and even Toney wore out as last season went on, and that the game is more mentally and physically demanding than some assume, But that factor is more prevalent with freshman, and decreases each year these kids are in college, because they mature mentally and physically, and learn to take care of their minds and bodies along with that.

The issue is not isolated just to X and Trey, the overall lack of depth, and lack of talent around them, will demand they play to give the team a reasonable shot at winning games.

They both going to play 30+ minutes, no way to get around it. I hope we see Murphy play 20+. I think he can handle PG relief of X, but good chance they will let Trey have a shot to help his pro ball development. Also, pending match ups and game situations, good chance you will see all three on the court a decent amount.

Toney played about 25 minutes a game, he may tick toward 30 if he is in a good shape.

Brown and Hamilton will split the 5, Coulibaly will see a little time there. With the addition of Hamilton, he is likely to see the least amount of time this upcoming season of the new recruits. Let's say Brown improves a bit, he played 19 minutes a game last year, let's say he upticks to about 23, that puts Hamilton at 17, given his limited minutes prior to now, and his moving up in competition, that just seems to fit.

There are people pay side who are saying Champagnie is closer to 6-7 than not. If that is the case, I would imagine he will back up Toney at PF, maybe play a little with him at F. I know, I know, HCJC said he does not want Toney to play PF. End of the day, he is going to put the guys on the court who most help the team to win, and as the roster stands today, that is going to lead to Toney playing PF more than anyone would prefer.

Champagnie played most of his time in the paint his last two years in HS, just seems like his way to help more initially, he will be more of a project at SF, while Drumgoole played a lot as the secondary ball handler and primary three point threat last year.

Still think Drumgoole ideally would have a lighter load as a frosh, given average athleticism and developing as a hoops player who played a decent amount of football until recently. But, circumstances, again if they don't add any other viable players, likely will be that he plays about 15-20 minutes as SF, and perhaps sliding into SG if there are injuries or foul every now and again.

 

[Straight Eye Larry]

Johnson 32
McGowens 8

McGowens 24
Murphy 16

Toney 20
Drumgoole 20

Hamilton 20
Champagnie 10
Toney 10

Brown 25
Coulibaly 8
Hamilton 7

I like this one. I think we see some 3 guard lineups with X, Murph, and Trey.. you could probably give Trey a few min at the 3 and bump Murphy up a tad. Other than that, I think this is spot on.

 

[Straight Eye Larry]

I also hope X and Trey's minutes go down. It will be a sign we have better depth and less minutes hopefully mean fresher and more competitive legs towards the end of the season.

What? I like depth as much as anyone but this is ridiculous. You want them to be on the floor less?

That's like saying you want Kyrie Irving to play less because Rozier is a good backup. That makes no sense. Depth is great but you don't limit your two best players. You run them every single game.

 

[Straight Eye Larry]

I could go with the 27 minutes. It's only a difference of four minutes, or two
minutes per half, but the minutes X logged last year took a toll IMO. It's not
just the games themselves....it's the practice time, traveling, going back and
forth to classes, study time, and let's face it...they do party. There are also
more ACC games this year.
Thirty plus games starting in early November, takes a toll. I don't care how
young they are, or how good the strength training and conditioning is. Of
course it's important that there's a backup who can log some minutes. If
there isn't, fatigue is a natural result. My concern is for X more than Trey.
Right now there are options at the 2 guard, not the case at pg.
Obviously there are college players who actually log more than the 31.8,
but IMO it's too much. I would go with 28-30 as an acceptable
scenario.

They're 19 years old! Don't get your own daily struggles of getting out of bed and moving mixed up with these kids. Are you being serious with this????

If he can't log 30+ min per night for 30 games then how in the hell is he going to play in the NBA?

Sure, the ACC took a toll on this team last year. There's no doubt but it takes a toll on everyone. The best players are the ones that don't let it impact them. Those are the guys that come out on top.

 

[pittchagg]

I think we could see a split of something like this in conference play (garbage time and non-con are going to skew the usages):

PG:
Xavier - 32
Trey - 6
Murphy - 2

SG:
Trey - 24
Murphy - 13
Drumgoole - 3

SF:
Toney - 21
Drumgoole - 13
Champagnie - 6

PF:
Hamilton - 14
Coulibaly - 13
Toney - 7
Champagnie - 6

C:
Brown - 24
Hamilton - 10
Coulibaly - 6

Obviously if we land Bilau or another player - or if/when Kene is able to play - it will change these numbers dramatically, but I think that’s a fair look of where we could sit in competitive play as the roster stands now.

 

[Straight Eye Larry]

I think we could see a split of something like this in conference play (garbage time and non-con are going to skew the usages):

PG:
Xavier - 32
Trey - 6
Murphy - 2

SG:
Trey - 24
Murphy - 13
Drumgoole - 3

SF:
Toney - 21
Drumgoole - 13
Champagnie - 6

PF:
Hamilton - 14
Coulibaly - 13
Toney - 7
Champagnie - 6

C:
Brown - 24
Hamilton - 10
Coulibaly - 6

Obviously if we land Bilau or another player - or if/when Kene is able to play - it will change these numbers dramatically, but I think that’s a fair look of where we could sit in competitive play as the roster stands now.

I like this one but even if Kene is healthy I don't think he sees the floor unless there's serious foul trouble.

 

[pittchagg]

I like this one but even if Kene is healthy I don't think he sees the floor unless there's serious foul trouble.

I think the biggest thing his health would do is allow Toney and Champagnie to not be forced to make up those remaining ~15 minutes at the four; they might only need to play five or so minutes combined there, and I think we’d be better off for that.

What I’d really like to do to correct that apparent by-committee approach at the four, though, is to add Bilau. Add him to the mix and have Brown, Bilau, Hamilton, and Coulibaly to split between the four and the five and Kene can really just be a bonus whenever he’s healthy.

 

[Chescat]

They're 19 years old! Don't get your own daily struggles of getting out of bed and moving mixed up with these kids. Are you being serious with this????

If he can't log 30+ min per night for 30 games then how in the hell is he going to play in the NBA?

Sure, the ACC took a toll on this team last year. There's no doubt but it takes a toll on everyone. The best players are the ones that don't let it impact them. Those are the guys that come out on top.

.


My "own daily struggles with getting out of bed and moving'......now THAT'S funny.
Take a look at what I posted..... "28-30 minutes as an acceptable scenario." That range isn't far off from the 30.8 X played last year. Don't make it like I suggested
20 minutes per game or something ridiculous.
My real point is I thought X wore out at the end of the year. The best ones
need to be on the floor, I totally agree. The point is how much before it
affects them. That's what a coach has to determine.
Sorry, but I can't agree with the "best ones don't let it impact them." When
you wear out, you wear out, regardless of how hard you're trying not
to tire. You might think you're physically giving 100%, but the output
sometimes isn't the same. Any REAL player never wants to come out. Anyone
whoever played the game knows this. Anyway, I'll go with 30 minutes for X.
And yeah, I'm being "serious." We disagree...no biggie.

 

[Straight Eye Larry]

.


My "own daily struggles with getting out of bed and moving'......now THAT'S funny.
Take a look at what I posted..... "28-30 minutes as an acceptable scenario." That range isn't far off from the 30.8 X played last year. Don't make it like I suggested
20 minutes per game or something ridiculous.
My real point is I thought X wore out at the end of the year. The best ones
need to be on the floor, I totally agree. The point is how much before it
affects them. That's what a coach has to determine.
Sorry, but I can't agree with the "best ones don't let it impact them." When
you wear out, you wear out, regardless of how hard you're trying not
to tire. You might think you're physically giving 100%, but the output
sometimes isn't the same. Any REAL player never wants to come out. Anyone
whoever played the game knows this. Anyway, I'll go with 30 minutes for X.
And yeah, I'm being "serious." We disagree...no biggie.

I'm not saying run X 40 min. I think 30-32 is perfect actually. I thought you meant under that.

 

[Pitt2006]

I think my point about having X and trey get less times due to increased depth is more hope that the new recruits will be light years ahead of where Kham, Shamiel, Peace, Malik, Samson, etc. were, so that we don't have a significant drop off in play when X and Trey are not out there. I totally support play the best we got and do hope the conditioning and maturity help reduce risk of injuries and fatigue.

 

[Straight Eye Larry]

We have three guards. Who do you suggest we play when X and Trey aren't in the game?

 

[Chescat]

I'm not saying run X 40 min. I think 30-32 is perfect actually. I thought you meant under that.

Yeah, I could live with your suggested minutes, and I guess it's gonna happen because
of how valuable he is to everything Pitt's trying to do on the floor.
What could bring minutes down a little, would be if we get some games where
it's a blowout, he gets some minutes off. That's important because in a close
ACC game, he's easily gonna play 32-34 minutes at least.
The other concern, we only have 3 guards. I posted this same concern a few
days ago. That's why I was hoping we'd sign a pg/combo guard, grad transfer
type for this coming season.

 

[pittchagg]

We have three guards. Who do you suggest we play when X and Trey aren't in the game?

I think Drumgoole can definitely play an off-guard role in spots like JWF did last year. That makes four.

 

[Chescat]

I think Drumgoole can definitely play an off-guard role in spots like JWF did last year. That makes four.

He might be able to, hopefully he can. The issue is we have three TRUE guards.
Of course in today's world, it's often almost positionless. Capel went with a 1-4
alignment last year.
We have numbers at the wing.....Toney, Drumgoole, and Champaigne.
I don't want to see Toney having to play inside this year. That's going to be
decided by how well the new guys adjust. Last year we had four true guards......
X, Trey, Davis, and Sidy, with JWF being a wing. Drumgoole or not, we're down
a guard, and that's why I keep saying I want either a pg or combo guard added
to the roster.
Just my take on things. Hell, for all I know maybe Capel has faith in one of the
walkons.

 

[Drew1208]

I think Drumgoole can definitely play an off-guard role in spots like JWF did last year. That makes four.

Drumgoole looked especially competant playing guard, when a team throws in that 2-2-1 press.
Which you see a good amount of in College.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I think Drumgoole can definitely play an off-guard role in spots like JWF did last year. That makes four.

Toney was also listed as a guard on last year's roster even though he didn't play much of anything other than the 4 last year--and that was mainly out of necessity. We have no idea if he could play guard well enough to spend some time at the 2 guard. Capel, on the other hand does know whether Toney is a viable 2 guard back-up option and is planning accordingly (one way or the other) I feel sure.

 

[Jeffburgh]

Toney was also listed as a guard on last year's roster even though he didn't play much of anything other than the 4 last year--and that was mainly out of necessity. We have no idea if he could play guard well enough to spend some time at the 2 guard. Capel, on the other hand does know whether Toney is a viable 2 guard back-up option and is planning accordingly (one way or the other) I feel sure.

Watching a decent amount of their games in the playoffs, and other highlights, he looked to be their secondary ball handler and primary three ball threat. When there was a press on the PG taking the ball out of bounds after a score, he would be who they threw the ball to and he usually managed to get it across half court - not on great pressure on him, but just taking his time and being careful.
He also was a heady passer, probably had at least the second most assists from what I saw.
Don't think he would hold up well long term at guard, but could play some 2G if needed for a little bit here and there.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Watching a decent amount of their games in the playoffs, and other highlights, he looked to be their secondary ball handler and primary three ball threat. When there was a press on the PG taking the ball out of bounds after a score, he would be who they threw the ball to and he usually managed to get it across half court - not on great pressure on him, but just taking his time and being careful.
He also was a heady passer, probably had at least the second most assists from what I saw.
Don't think he would hold up well long term at guard, but could play some 2G if needed for a little bit here and there.

IMHO, it isn't something I worriy about. We will have enough guys capable of filling in at the 2 guard if McGowens needs to be the primary backup at the point guard (i.e., replace N'Dir's minutes).

 

[Drew1208]

IMHO, it isn't something I worriy about. We will have enough guys capable of filling in at the 2 guard if McGowens needs to be the primary backup at the point guard (i.e., replace N'Dir's minutes).

I agree this doesn't concern me.

 

[Harve74]

IMHO, the impact of 30+ minutes on X and nearly that many on Trey, is exaggerated by the intensity and pace that Capel has this team play, particularly on defense. . Playing 30 or 35 minutes for a team which walks the ball up the court or plays a lot of zone is much different.

Because of that intensity, I'd like to see a little more substitution for the starting G's.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I have updated mine slightly:

PG
Johnson 32
McGowens 8

SG
McGowens 24
Murphy 16

SF
Toney 20
Drumgoole/Champagnie 20

PF
Hamilton 15
Coulibaly 15
Toney 10

C
Brown 28
Hamilton 12

My guess is that Drumgoole plays more than Champagnie due to his shooting.

 

[Jeffburgh]

I have updated mine slightly:

PG
Johnson 32
McGowens 8

SG
McGowens 24
Murphy 16

SF
Toney 20
Drumgoole/Champagnie 20

PF
Hamilton 15
Coulibaly 15
Toney 10

C
Brown 25
Hamilton 15

My guess is that Drumgoole plays more than Champagnie due to his shooting.

IMO, very possible we will see X, Murphy and Trey on the court more than a little.

I am instruiged by Hamilton as anyone else, but he has not played 15 minutes a game in a season his entire career, going to be a BIG leap for him to play 30 against Pitt's competition.

 

[DT_PITT]

IMO, very possible we will see X, Murphy and Trey on the court more than a little.

I am instruiged by Hamilton as anyone else, but he has not played 15 minutes a game in a season his entire career, going to be a BIG leap for him to play 30 against Pitt's competition.

Agree completely.

 

[Chescat]

I am instruiged by Hamilton as anyone else, but he has not played 15 minutes a game in a season his entire career, going to be a BIG leap for him to play 30 against Pitt's competition.

Totally agree. - First of all he's a Big and playing that many minutes is not realistic.
- Secondly, as you mentioned, he's never played anywhere near
30 minutes a game.
- Also, the most simplistic reason is he will undoubtedly split time
with Brown. At this point, I see a 20/20 split for these two.
- What could change this is Coulibaly if he's ready. However I see
Coulibaly playing alongside Brown and Hamilton as opposed to
his being the sole Big in a 1-4 or as a Center in another alignment..
- If/when Chuka returns, he'll probably get some minutes.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Totally agree. - First of all he's a Big and playing that many minutes is not realistic.
- Secondly, as you mentioned, he's never played anywhere near
30 minutes a game.
- Also, the most simplistic reason is he will undoubtedly split time
with Brown. At this point, I see a 20/20 split for these two.
- What could change this is Coulibaly if he's ready. However I see
Coulibaly playing alongside Brown and Hamilton as opposed to
his being the sole Big in a 1-4 or as a Center in another alignment..
- If/when Chuka returns, he'll probably get some minutes.

I dont see Coulibaly getting any minutes at the 5. He's a PF, even possibly a stretch 4. So if you think Hamilton will play 20 at the 5, who will play the 4? Toney 20 and Coulibaly/Champagnie 20? That only gives Toney 10 minutes at the 3 and we know Capel wants him there. It also makes us smaller and weaker on the glass.

Just due to lack of bigs, I see both Brown and Hamilton playing in the 27-28 MPG range.

 

[Chescat]

I dont see Coulibaly getting any minutes at the 5. He's a PF, even possibly a stretch 4. So if you think Hamilton will play 20 at the 5, who will play the 4? Toney 20 and Coulibaly/Champagnie 20? That only gives Toney 10 minutes at the 3 and we know Capel wants him there. It also makes us smaller and weaker on the glass.

Just due to lack of bigs, I see both Brown and Hamilton playing in the 27-28 MPG range.

First of all you're assuming there's going to be a 4. Neither of us know at this
point what alignment Capel will use. If he were to go with a 1-4 as he did last
year, Hamilton and Brown could easily spit 20/20 and there would be no 4.
I do however think there will be times when he does use a 4, and that would be Coulibaly. I don't see Coulibaly at the 5 either (I said that in my post).
Kene is also no 5, but if he were to return, I could see him getting limited minutes
at the 4 also.
As far as "both Brown and Hamilton playing in the 27-28 MPG range.....well let's
just say we disagree on that one. I think Italy will tell us a lot, let's see.