Another decommit

[PittMan 72]

Just read Connelly’s ACC Coastal preview. This is just brutal:

In his third year with veteran coordinator Mark Whipple, Pickett will have a veteran line, an explosive back in Vincent Davis and high-upside (but inconsistent) receivers like Jordan Addison and Taysir Mack. All these pieces added up to only a No. 86 offensive SP+ ranking last year.

You can’t return everything on offense, and be that horrible on offense. You just can’t.

Yeah that offensive SP+ ranking last year was not good at all. What does Connelly predict Pitt’s offensive SP+ ranking will be for 2021?

 

[cashisking884]

Yeah that offensive SP+ ranking last year was not good at all. What does Connelly predict Pitt’s offensive SP+ ranking will be for 2021?

He doesn’t have it listed. His write ups right now are very quick.

He has us 43 overall in the country.
He has the projected win total at 7 wins.
He has us projected 4th in the Coastal with the order being:

Miami
UNC
VT
Pitt
UVA
GT
Duke

Which is probably about the order everybody will have it at, maybe flip flopping Miami-UNC and Pitt-VT.

Most interesting thing is he has Miami and UNC projected to be legit Top 10 teams. I’m not sure I can remember the last time the Coastal had two teams projected to be Top 10 in quality.

 

[PittMan 72]

He doesn’t have it listed. His write ups right now are very quick.

He has us 43 overall in the country.
He has the projected win total at 7 wins.
He has us projected 4th in the Coastal with the order being:

Miami
UNC
VT
Pitt
UVA
GT
Duke

Which is probably about the order everybody will have it at, maybe flip flopping Miami-UNC and Pitt-VT.

Most interesting thing is he has Miami and UNC projected to be legit Top 10 teams. I’m not sure I can remember the last time the Coastal had two teams projected to be Top 10 in quality.

Pitt will receive those kinds of tepid, moderate pre-season predictions from national pundits until they can produce a breakthrough season on the field. It’s a “show me first” position these folks will take with Pitt. None of them will risk sticking their necks out credibility-wise until Pitt proves otherwise.

 

[cashisking884]

Pitt will receive those kinds of tepid, moderate pre-season predictions from national pundits until they can produce a breakthrough season on the field. It’s a “show me first” position these folks will take with Pitt. None of them will risk sticking their necks out credibility-wise until Pitt proves otherwise.

That’s not what is happening here. “Connelly” isn’t actually projecting anything. It’s the S&P+ that is doing the projecting. It’s got nothing to actually do with the perception of Pitt and a pundit. It’s a mathematical computer formula.

 

[cashisking884]

Find good players were ever you can. How is that under thinking it

It’s like saying, “buy a cheap house wherever you can find it.” That’s a nice thought. But it ignores a ton of other factors that make that house doable for your life. It under thinks everything else that goes into a house.

 

[PittMan 72]

That’s not what is happening here. “Connelly” isn’t actually projecting anything. It’s the S&P+ that is doing the projecting. It’s got nothing to actually do with the perception of Pitt and a pundit. It’s a mathematical computer formula.

Same thing. The data being used is historical. Based on past performance. Pitt is not going to be predicted to do better until the season after they actually do it on the field.

 

[pittdan77]

Pitt has 11 safeties on the roster. Last I checked, Pitt only uses 2. There are 8 CB's. It's crowded back there and there is some talent. I think numbers definitely played a part in the decision, if it was his.

I see talk about OL. The remark about it being a "down" era is probably the best explanation. Offenses have really devalued OL play. Not sure if one caused the other but you just don't see many teams at any level running straight ahead with 1-on-1 blocking. Game isn't played that way anymore. Pitt's OL recruiting is pretty much right where you'd expect it to be with the class average. They've added some size and do recognize they need to give the position some attention. They need to develop what they have to give the QB and RB's some room to work with.

 

[cashisking884]

I see talk about OL. The remark about it being a "down" era is probably the best explanation. Offenses have really devalued OL play. Not sure if one caused the other but you just don't see many teams at any level running straight ahead with 1-on-1 blocking. Game isn't played that way anymore. Pitt's OL recruiting is pretty much right where you'd expect it to be with the class average. They've added some size and do recognize they need to give the position some attention. They need to develop what they have to give the QB and RB's some room to work with.

All one needs to do is look at that 2019 LSU team.
Arguably the greatest offense of all time.

But that wasn’t some elite OL. I dont’ think any of them even graded out high enough to be on any tier of PFF’s All SEC team. None of them went in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. I think the center was the highest player drafted from that line.

You need an OL that’s just good enough to allow your athletes to run loose on the field. A system that takes advantage of those players. That’s offense today. It’s largely scheming around the OL through tempo, motion, and leveraging numbers.