Any thoughts on Thurs line?
- Thread starter jimmoyer
- Start date
Pitt -4
***Edit: I'm changing my prediction based on some of the posters below who point out that Vegas is way smarter than the pollsters and don't care about the polls at all. They probably do like UNC>Pitt at a neutral location, so it being at Pitt probably makes it Pitt -0.5 or so. With rain predicted for the day before the game and therefore being a possibility for it showing up on game day, I have got to think that favors Pitt since our offense is less reliant on dynamic playmakers, and our lines are better (Pitt OL >> UNC DL, Pitt DL >= UNC OL).
***Edit: I'm changing my prediction based on some of the posters below who point out that Vegas is way smarter than the pollsters and don't care about the polls at all. They probably do like UNC>Pitt at a neutral location, so it being at Pitt probably makes it Pitt -0.5 or so. With rain predicted for the day before the game and therefore being a possibility for it showing up on game day, I have got to think that favors Pitt since our offense is less reliant on dynamic playmakers, and our lines are better (Pitt OL >> UNC DL, Pitt DL >= UNC OL).
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Anything Pitt -3 or better makes us the favorite on a neutral field. I hope that's the case, but I see the sharps lining this up more like Pitt -1 and a hook.
Then again, a lot could depend on the ranking. If we're up a spot or two and UNC stays in ARV, the casinos may book it Pitt -4 to try and steer the line depending on where the early money lands.
Then again, a lot could depend on the ranking. If we're up a spot or two and UNC stays in ARV, the casinos may book it Pitt -4 to try and steer the line depending on where the early money lands.
North Carolina is likely to be a small favorite. They were a much larger favorite over Virginia (16.5 versus 8) than we were. Something like North Carolina -2 would be my guess.
No, it won't. Utah was ranked number three in the country heading in to their game yesterday versus USC. USC was no where to be found in the rankings. USC was a 5.5 point favorite, which means that even if the game were at a neutral site an unranked team would have been favored over the number three team in the polls. Because the people who make up the opening point spreads (and the smart betters) don't give a crap about where the AP or the coaches rank a team.
As Joe mentioned the rankings are totally meaningless when it comes to the betting line. Other than the teams in their own conference or on their schedule coaches have absolutely no clue which teams are better than others. Writers are in the business of reacting to the last thing they saw, which is easily the squarest thing you can do when it comes to betting.
I expect Pitt to open up about a 3 point favorite in the game, although slightly higher wouldn't shock me. For those interested the Wynn has been the first book in the world to hang numbers these days, usually around 8PM EST on Sundays.
I expect Pitt to open up about a 3 point favorite in the game, although slightly higher wouldn't shock me. For those interested the Wynn has been the first book in the world to hang numbers these days, usually around 8PM EST on Sundays.
I'd even go as far as saying they're more knowledgeable than the pollsters.
Pitt by 1/2 point is pretty consistent with Sagarin ratings which have PItt by 0.62 when home field advantage is factored in.
If UNC is using "Pitt is ranked and we're not" as bulletin board material because they don't feel they're respected, I think Pitt just got something a whole lot more motivating (if that type of stuff is at all motivating to players).
I think Carolina -2.5/-3 is about right. Recall the whole goal of a line/spread is ACTION on both sides..
Carolina is very talented and they do play some defense now.
Williams is a very talented QB who has hurt us in the past. We will need our offense firing on all cylinders Thursday night. This begins a very important stretch run for our Panthers.
H2P!
Carolina is very talented and they do play some defense now.
Williams is a very talented QB who has hurt us in the past. We will need our offense firing on all cylinders Thursday night. This begins a very important stretch run for our Panthers.
H2P!
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