I would guess they have to win at least 8 of their last 10 to have a chance. They play Virginia three this weekend at home and Virginia is awful. A loss there would be devastating. Then two with Marshall at home. Marshall is also not very good. Then another game with Kent State, at home this time. They aren't very good either. Then a single game at Ohio State, who is about as good as we are, probably a little better. And then a final three game home series against Louisville, who is currently 8th in the conference.
The problem is that of the ten games remaining there are a lot of chances for the RPI to take a hit and fewer chances to get what would be considered a good win.