Big 12 vs Pac 12: who survives

[WVUinColumbus]

I need to ask, since UNC hasn't won an ACC football title since 1980. They haven't finished in the top 10 since 1997. They won the Coastal once (and we have twice despite Carolina having an 8 year head start). Their fans are somewhat ambivalent towards football. So what makes their program so good??

It’s not about program.

It’s about brand, valuation, massive flagship school in a large state. I almost typed UVA but couldn’t because their program is so bad. 🤣

It’s Texas. It hasn’t been a 7 year suckfest for UT. It’s literally been nearly twice that length. They still have massive brand appeal. It’s why I always tell people that you need to separate the football from the brand when talking about the XII.

The football is number 3 (only after SEC and B1G). Brand? We are number 5 of P5.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

No they haven’t. I’ve paid very close attention to blogs of other PAC institutions. Nearly all of them think they’re “too good” for the XII, which is laughable…unless you are UW or Oregon in PAC or Clemson or UNC in the ACC.

Those 4 programs (Washington not as much as other 3) are markedly better, in pretty much all ways, than any XII team. The rest of the schools in those conferences are level or beneath most of the XII, which has a very deep number of “average” brands. FSU is probably slightly higher too given geography, brand, etc but not as much as other 4.

There are a number of PAC and ACC program fans who truly don’t understand that they are simply along for the ride with the superiors in the conference….especially Utah. Delusional fans.

The Big 12's brand are utter trash.

- Little brother schools in lowly populated states (Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma)

- regional/city schools in populated states (TT, Hou, TCU, Baylor, UCF)

- weird outcasts (BYU, WVU)

Out of the 10 Pac 12 schools, only 2 are Big 12ish (little bros Oregon St and Washington St). The other 8 have a lot going for them.

Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, Colorado - flagship schools of populated states with large fanbases. Well Utah isnt large by state population standards but has around 3 million people within driving distance of the university.

- Arizona State - community college but great market and big fanbase

- Stanford/Cal - small fanbases but great markets and great academics

To me, the choice is easy, add a few B12 schools and wait and hope for a P2 invite eventually

 

[cashisking884]

No they haven’t. I’ve paid very close attention to blogs of other PAC institutions. Nearly all of them think they’re “too good” for the XII, which is laughable…unless you are UW or Oregon in PAC or Clemson or UNC in the ACC.

Those 4 programs (Washington not as much as other 3) are markedly better, in pretty much all ways, than any XII team. The rest of the schools in those conferences are level or beneath most of the XII, which has a very deep number of “average” brands. FSU is probably slightly higher too given geography, brand, etc but not as much as other 4.

There are a number of PAC and ACC program fans who truly don’t understand that they are simply along for the ride with the superiors in the conference….especially Utah. Delusional fans.

Utah is a state with a growing population and die hard following.

I could see them not getting left out.

 

[ncyajleel]

I would be fine if Pitt didn't get an invite. The way I see it is these new conferences are not going to go along with NCAA rules and guidelines, they will want to do their own thing, so they go off and form their own conference/league, whatever, which WVU and Cincinnati will NEVER have a prayer of winning. Meanwhile the rest of the schools not picked stay with the NCAA and become student athletes again in which Pitt could again become and NCAA champion. No matter what anyone thinks, the Big 10 and SEC are just becoming a minor league system for the NFL.

 

[ncyajleel]

The author wrote: "The biggest winner here is South Carolina. The Gamecocks get to play rival Clemson on a more regular basis." I guess he doesn't know that Clemson and South Carolina play each other EVERY year?

That SI article is a joke. There’s no way Miami is left out.

BTW, did a Pitt fan steal your wife / husband?

 

[WVUinColumbus]

I would be fine if Pitt didn't get an invite. The way I see it is these new conferences are not going to go along with NCAA rules and guidelines, they will want to do their own thing, so they go off and form their own conference/league, whatever, which WVU and Cincinnati will NEVER have a prayer of winning. Meanwhile the rest of the schools not picked stay with the NCAA and become student athletes again in which Pitt could again become and NCAA champion. No matter what anyone thinks, the Big 10 and SEC are just becoming a minor league system for the NFL.

Cincinnati will go with Pitt in this scenario.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Cincinnati will go with Pitt in this scenario.

Pitt's league may end up being

Pitt
BC
Syr
Lou
Wake
GT
Iowa St
Cincy
UCF
USF
Baylor
TCU
Houston
Kansas
KSt
WVU

So basically the old Big East plus a few. Maybe we can get Wanny back. Wouldn't be a doomsday. Maybe the champ would get an auto bid in a 12 team playoff. Would burn by balls that Rutgers, Vandy, NW, Indiana, Miss St, Ill, Min, and Ky would be in a P2 though

 

[ncyajleel]

I think WVU would as well. There is no way any of us can keep up with Alabama, OSU, or even Penn State, money-wise.

Cincinnati will go with Pitt in this scenario.

 

[303vND]

If one was to form a new conference, choosing only teams from the current P12 and B12 based on TV market and football potential/history/tradition, these are the picks

1. Oregon
2. Washington
3. Colorado
4. Arizona
5. Cal
6. Oklahoma State
7. Texas Tech
8. Baylor
9. TCU
10. BYU
11. Kansas
12. UCF
13. Cincinnati
14. WVU
15. Stanford
16. Arizona State
17. Iowa State
18. Kansas State
19. Oregon State
20. Washington State

Houston will absolutely be in the mix. Major TV market and a big money donor.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I would be fine if Pitt didn't get an invite. The way I see it is these new conferences are not going to go along with NCAA rules and guidelines, they will want to do their own thing, so they go off and form their own conference/league, whatever, which WVU and Cincinnati will NEVER have a prayer of winning. Meanwhile the rest of the schools not picked stay with the NCAA and become student athletes again in which Pitt could again become and NCAA champion. No matter what anyone thinks, the Big 10 and SEC are just becoming a minor league system for the NFL.

Everybody says in these new super leagues than most schools "don't have a prayer to winning a championship". And this is mostly true.

But what is different than now?

Since the 4 team BCS Playoffs began in 2014 there has been 32 slots. Only 12 teams have filled these slots. In the championship game, only 6 teams have participated.

It's pretty much an Invitational now, not a real playoff.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I would be fine if Pitt didn't get an invite. The way I see it is these new conferences are not going to go along with NCAA rules and guidelines, they will want to do their own thing, so they go off and form their own conference/league, whatever, which WVU and Cincinnati will NEVER have a prayer of winning. Meanwhile the rest of the schools not picked stay with the NCAA and become student athletes again in which Pitt could again become and NCAA champion. No matter what anyone thinks, the Big 10 and SEC are just becoming a minor league system for the NFL.

Sounds idyllic. But the reality is that Pitt would have to be among (likely many) schools that drop the sport completely. If not immediately, then eventually. I can see the leftover schools bandying and filing class action suits against the Unrivaled League, and those schools paying the leftovers off to rid themselves of the nuisance. That money might be able to pay for continued football by the leftovers. But it won’t cover it for very long.

 

[ncyajleel]

You're probably right, but I would watch the NCAA over the SEC\Big 10 league any day. I'm guessing this is what happened way back in the day when all schools, like W&J, were at the same level as Pitt and had to move to DIII eventually.

Sounds idyllic. But the reality is that Pitt would have to be among (likely many) schools that drop the sport completely. If not immediately, then eventually. I can see the leftover schools bandying and filing class action suits against the Unrivaled League, and those schools paying the leftovers off to rid themselves of the nuisance. That money might be able to pay for continued football by the leftovers. But it won’t cover it for very long.

 

[WVUinColumbus]

I think WVU would as well. There is no way any of us can keep up with Alabama, OSU, or even Penn State, money-wise.

You just said they wouldn’t in your post 🤣

WTF?

You’re nuts if you think WVU chooses “academic/metro schools”. Of course, we wouldn’t win in this scenario.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

You're probably right, but I would watch the NCAA over the SEC\Big 10 league any day. I'm guessing this is what happened way back in the day when all schools, like W&J, were at the same level as Pitt and had to move to DIII eventually.

A broadcast deal would mean everything. Likely more streaming than a cable channel (s) or major network but maybe there is enough money to be significant. The NIT gets shown in parallel with the NCAA tournament after all, just not on prime channels in prime times. An entire 4 month football season is a bit of a different than a couple weeks though.

But another good thing is that there a ton of minor Bowl games, to retain some semblance of relationship and revenue (dinky as it may be).

I’m sitting here assuming the Unrivaled League will have a straight playoff system and no bowls in the usual sense; and the best teams gets to play the games at home.

But maybe the top 6-8 bowls acting as the playoff first round and semi finals and such.
And that leaves a LOT more existing lower tier bowls.

Do we think the greedy Unrivaled League will bastardize its playoff system and allow its 6-6 commoners (aka non playoff teams) to play in lower tier bowls? After all, the 20ish NFL teams that don’t make the NFL playoffs don’t take bids to play random ‘meaningless exhibition’ aka bowl games in conjunction with the NFL playoffs.

But obviously the current college playoff (limited as it is) allows lower tier bowls, so I suppose they’d have no shame doing so in the new Unrivaled League also. A non playoff 7-5 Penn State will still get to play 6-6 Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl or whatever.

But if they somehow decide not to allow non-playoff bowls, it’ll be interesting. Some bowls may fold. Still, there are bowls that are lucrative to their host towns, so may want to continue…meaning they would have to ally with … ta da, the Leftover League.

If Bowl play is still open to all, it will also be interesting when the Unrivaled League has umpteen teams that are 6-6 or so, due to parity, but perhaps the Leftover League (besides its own Playoffs) might have quite a few 9-3 or 8-4 teams due to the possible lack of parity; so which will the lower tier bowl games prefer? And can an Unrivaled play a Leftover?

What a freaking mess, dam these greedy wretches for ruining everything and horking everything up like this…

 

[PittMan 72]

We shall see.

Big XII has a TV rights window opening coming up. ACC doesn’t.

Just saying.

I also know that you know that there are lots of moves yet to be made.

And without Texas and OU as part of the package, that TV rights window is a HUGE DETRIMENT. You guys are looking at maybe a slight increase over what the former American was getting. Nowhere near what you got when you were riding Bevo’s and the Sooner Schooner’s coattails.

So you can take the delusional pipe dreams back to the hoopie board to discuss with Vermin and “The Dude”. That way you can all agree with each other and try to make yourselves feel better.

 

[WVUinColumbus]

And without Texas and OU as part of the package, that TV rights window is a HUGE DETRIMENT. You guys are looking at maybe a slight increase over what the former American was getting. Nowhere near what you got when you were riding Bevo’s and the Sooner Schooner’s coattails.

So you can take the delusional pipe dreams back to the hoopie board to discuss with Vermin and “The Dude”. That way you can all agree with each other and try to make yourselves feel better.

Super!

 

[PITT 76]

The B12 and the PAC are in a tenuous situation. On one hand they may be content to remain at 12 and 10 schools respectively. I'm not sure that would work, but it is a thought.

The B12 is actually more restricted due to the incoming schools. That puts them at 12. In order to expand, they're probably looking at the 4 corners schools.

The PAC might have a much easier solution. They could simply add the 6 original B12 teams ( TX TECH, BAYLOR, OKLA ST, KANSAS, KS ST, and IOWA STATE ) and have a 16-team conference of traditional power 5 teams. Not as glorious as a conference with USC, UCLA, OKLA, and TX, but one has to play the cards he's (or the pronoun of your choice) dealt.

I am unaware of existing contracts and GOR. I could see either one of those scenarios playing out.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The B12 and the PAC are in a tenuous situation. On one hand they may be content to remain at 12 and 10 schools respectively. I'm not sure that would work, but it is a thought.

The B12 is actually more restricted due to the incoming schools. That puts them at 12. In order to expand, they're probably looking at the 4 corners schools.

The PAC might have a much easier solution. They could simply add the 6 original B12 teams ( TX TECH, BAYLOR, OKLA ST, KANSAS, KS ST, and IOWA STATE ) and have a 16-team conference of traditional power 5 teams. Not as glorious as a conference with USC, UCLA, OKLA, and TX, but one has to play the cards he's (or the pronoun of your choice) dealt.

I am unaware of existing contracts and GOR. I could see either one of those scenarios playing out.

Iowa St and KSt are a waste of time.

If I were them I'd add

OK St
TT
San Diego St (new stadium, great bball, makes up slightly, very slightly for loss of USC and UCLA, no NFL team is a huge bonus)

Then 1-5 of the following: Houston, Kansas, TCU, Baylor, UNLV

 

[pittdan77]

Everybody says in these new super leagues than most schools "don't have a prayer to winning a championship". And this is mostly true.

But what is different than now?

Since the 4 team BCS Playoffs began in 2014 there has been 32 slots. Only 12 teams have filled these slots. In the championship game, only 6 teams have participated.

It's pretty much an Invitational now, not a real playoff.

Honestly, the one game playoff would have been plenty in most seasons. It's not like adding another ten teams is going to affect the outcome except that more kids could end up hurt prior to auditioning to the NFL.

 

[cashisking884]

Honestly, the one game playoff would have been plenty in most seasons. It's not like adding another ten teams is going to affect the outcome except that more kids could end up hurt prior to auditioning to the NFL.

The BCS was the best chance for a little guy. It was maybe more difficult to get there. But if you got there, you just needed to get lucky once.

 

[bearcatsuc]

Skyline, Gold Star, Blue Ash or Pleasant Ridge?

Skyline, though i like Gold Star’s chili-frito burrito. Don’t eat it all that often anymore because it’s super loaded with sodium and late night drinking is a thing of the past.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It depends on IF there's a next move. For the sake of this post, lets assume the SEC, ACC, and B10 are done expanding for now. Then;

The Pac 12, being down to 10 teams, adds:

- San Diego State - need a SoCal team, they have a new stadium and its one of the largest media markets without an NFL team. Great opportunity.

- Oklahoma State

- Texas Tech

- Baylor/TCU - neither bring the Dallas market but adding 2 of them in the general area plus OKSt and TT alums gives you a presence in Dallas.

- UNLV - great market, Allegiant Stadium

Big 12, down to 10 add:

USF
Memphis
Texas-San Antonio
SMU

if 2 more: Colorado State, Boise State

Last year after Texas and Oklahoma left, there was widespread panic in the B12 as many felt the leagues was in End Times. I assumed the P12 (and maybe the ACC) would pick off the last valuable properties in that league. The P12 and ACC, both run by idiots, didnt see the big picture and let the B12 survive. Not sure the ACC seriously looked at adding B12 schools but the P12 did and decided there wasnt enough value. And because of that the Big 12 will probably outlast both.

 

[HailToPitt725]

I’ll go with the Big XII. Their leadership appears to at least be somewhat proactive. I could see them going hard after several PAC members.

Thanks for bumping this, SMF. What do I win?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Thanks for bumping this, SMF. What do I win?

Nothing because they won on a technicality: the collective stupidity of the liberal idiots in the P12 who didnt value sports and didnt understand conference expansion. They could have killed off the B12 but allowed them to survive and now the "Conference of Champions" is finished. The Big 12 didn't do anything "strategic." They simply just sat there in amazement as the P12 and ACC let them be.