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Bracketolgy update thread

Now the two teams playing for the conference championship will have undoubtedly been the two best in the league that season. That's how it should be.
Not really, in all of sports history leagues have had divisions and division champs have always faced off for a championship. even if the 2 or even more best teams where in the same division, it's been normal forever. That's how it should be.
 
Not really, in all of sports history leagues have had divisions and division champs have always faced off for a championship. even if the 2 or even more best teams where in the same division, it's been normal forever. That's how it should be.
I disagree with you.
 
I disagree with you.
That's fine, I like my way, because it puts more teams in actual contention most of the time and makes the outcome less predictable. That's what I want more than the "2 best" getting there. With just the top two, you are more likely to get the same teams over and over in some leagues, and I don't like that. They tell me German Bundesliga soccer is "great quality" but who cares when Bayern Munich has won the last 10 straight years, what's interesting about that, I'd rather see poorer quality play and less certainty. Or more likelihood that some nobody can get hot and steals a spot in a championship game, that's more interesting to me than best vs. best. I want CHAOS over certainty.
 
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11-12 Ohio State has a #40 NET Ranking. They need to blow that thing up and start over.

Its because the W/L result isnt weighted enough. Like Vegas, they look at the analytics to see how a team played in those games. OSU at 11-12 would be rated higher than a 23-0 team, had it played a poor schedule. Because OSU, given the analytics, would probably be the better team. Its not a results-based metric and that's problematic if you are using it for in/out/seed decisions which they arent supposed to. OSU's RPI is 120. Though RPI is also horrendous. Case in point: Just the mere fact that Pitt played (and beat) Louisville dropped their RPI 8 spots. For RPI purposes, it would be MUCH better to cancel the game than beat them by 100. Our RPI is 50 and would probably be 34 had we not played Louisville twice.
 
11-12 Ohio State with a 3-9 conference record has a #40 NET Ranking. They need to blow that thing up and start over.


If Pitt was playing Ohio State tonight on a neutral court just who do you think would be favored?

Answer that question correctly and you will understand why Ohio State's NET is better than Pitt's.
 
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If Pitt was playing Ohio State tonight on a neutral court just who do you think would be favored?

Answer that question correctly and you will understand why Ohio State's NET is better than Pitt's.
FWIW: Sagarin's computer's "recent" ratings have Pitt by 1.5 to 2 pts neutral court today.

Note: Sagarin's full season rating has Ohio State by 1.0 neutral.
 
I guess that is why Pitt is 17-6-1, 74% ATS and OSU is 8-15, 35%.


Those records don't tell you anything, other than everyone assumed we'd be really bad and everyone assumed Ohio State would be really good. The fact that we are better than everyone thought and Ohio State is worse than everyone thought doesn't actually tell you anything about the relative strengths of the teams compared to each other.

You get that, right?
 
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If Pitt was playing Ohio State tonight on a neutral court just who do you think would be favored?

Answer that question correctly and you will understand why Ohio State's NET is better than Pitt's.

I think OSU would be a 1 point favorite or a pick em but again, if they use the NET to make in/out/seed decisions (and I know they arent supposed to), going with a Vegas metric over a resume is just wrong. Its possible OSU might have a better team than Pitt but Pitt's resume is miles better. They actually won games on the court where OSU, UNC, etc look good on paper.
 
I think OSU would be a 1 point favorite or a pick em but again, if they use the NET to make in/out/seed decisions (and I know they arent supposed to), going with a Vegas metric over a resume is just wrong. Its possible OSU might have a better team than Pitt but Pitt's resume is miles better. They actually won games on the court where OSU, UNC, etc look good on paper.


Rutgers, 80, in.

Oklahoma, 39, out.

Xavier, 40, out.

Texas A&M, 43, out.

Wake Forest, 48, out.

Do I need to keep going? Because I literally could do this another 20 times.
 
Those records don't tell you anything, other than everyone assumed we'd be really bad and everyone assumed Ohio State would be really good. The fact that we are better than everyone thought and Ohio State is worse than everyone thought doesn't actually tell you anything about the relative strengths of the teams compared to each other.

You get that, right?
I thought your point was that Vegas lines are correlated to the NET/efficiency ratings? If true, doesn't that tell you that the efficiency stats might be very misleading for Pitt and OSU, with Pitt being undervalued and OSU being overvalued?
 
I thought your point was that Vegas lines are correlated to the NET/efficiency ratings? If true, doesn't that tell you that the efficiency stats might be very misleading for Pitt and OSU, with Pitt being undervalued and OSU being overvalued?


No, it doesn't say that at all. Do you really not understand that it is possible for Ohio State to be worse than everyone thought they would be, hence why their record against the spread is not good, and Pitt is better than everyone thought they would be, hence why their record against the spread is good, and yet Ohio State could still be better than Pitt?

The efficiency stats simply are what they are. They aren't misleading, they just are. You either score or you don't. You either get a rebound or you don't. You either turn the ball over or you don't.

The team that is the most efficient wins every game. That's why efficiency numbers matter.
 
Updated Lunardi brackets has UNC in first four while Pitt remains at 8. Clemson is denoted AQ at 11 which is odd. I don’t see Clemson winning the tournament. NC State also an 8. UVA 3 and Miami 5. WVU and NW both 9.
 
If Pitt was playing Ohio State tonight on a neutral court just who do you think would be favored?

Answer that question correctly and you will understand why Ohio State's NET is better than Pitt's.
The Sharps would take the ML - Pitt all day. Only a sucker would take OSU right now. OSU was favored by 5 at home last night against NW and of course they lost outright by 6.
 
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If Pitt was playing Ohio State tonight on a neutral court just who do you think would be favored?

Answer that question correctly and you will understand why Ohio State's NET is better than Pitt's.
Vegas believes more in recency bias than NET, so Pitt would be a favorite. Ohio State is free falling, early season doesn't matter as much.
 
Loved that year as well. Was at the Duke game in MSG. We were all going nuts after pulling it out. Randomly ran into Coach Wannstedt as we were exiting the building. Went over to him, yelled something celebratory and shook his hand. The man has large hands. He said something like "enjoy yourself." Great memory.
That Duke game was great. Hugged about 10 folks I didn't know and several others.
 
7 of Pitt’s next 10 games between now and February 21st in about 5 weeks are 2 with Louisville home and away, 2 with Florida State home and away, At Virginia Tech, and Boston College and Georgia Tech at home. The 3 other games are the home games with Wake and Miami the next 2 weeks, and at North Carolina on February 1st. I think 8-2 in that stretch is not out of the question. They have to be able to win the games against the mediocre to bad teams in the conference during this stretch. If they can do that and secure a win at home against Miami even if they lose on the road at North Carolina they should have an at large bid pretty secure.
Said about 5 weeks ago I thought they could go 8-2 in those next 10 games which concluded tonight with this win against GT and that’s exactly what they did and needed to do.
 
Bracket Matrix
March 2 update

Pitt
NC State

Last 4 Byes
USC
Auburn
Memphis
WVU

Last 4 In
Nevada
Miss St
Arizona St
Wisconsin

First Four Out
UNC
Utah St
Mich
OK St

Pitt in 79 of 82 brackets

2nd team out in this bracket

The other 2 that dont have us in are computer/metrics based so I wouldn't even count those.
 
Arizona State and Wisconsin are clearly the last 2 in. But there are 8 teams just above that are very closely bunched (Pitt, NC State, Auburn, USC, Memphis, WVU, Nevada, Miss State). Other teams (UNC, Clemson, Michigan) aren’t showing up yet in today’s bracket updates. Both ASU and Wisky lost Thursday as did UM and Rutgers & USC losing at half.
 
Last night 5/6 good outcomes occurred, with the exception being Memphis winning on the road. But USC, Rutgers, Mich, Wisky, and ASU all went down. Not really any games of note tonight. UNM has a road game they should win if they want any life support.
 
Monday BM update
Last 4 Byes
1. USC
2. NC State
3. Pitt
4. Utah State

Dayton
1. Rutgers
2. Nevada
3. Mississippi State
4. Penn State

The only other 6 teams in ANY of the 85 brackets are

Wisconsin 45
Arizona State 25
Ok St 22
Mich 3
Clem 1
UNC 1

So, the good news is that there really arent a ton of teams "in contention." Early losses this week by UNC, Clem, and Mich knock them out. You figure all 3 of Wis, PSU, RU cant get in. Probably 2. Arizona State/USC on Thursday could be a "play-in" game. Both may not get in.

Pitt actually isn't even in 12 of the 85 brackets which is a little scary. These are the ones that updated today. One of them has us as the 7th team out.
 
Monday BM update
Last 4 Byes
1. USC
2. NC State
3. Pitt
4. Utah State

Dayton
1. Rutgers
2. Nevada
3. Mississippi State
4. Penn State

The only other 6 teams in ANY of the 85 brackets are

Wisconsin 45
Arizona State 25
Ok St 22
Mich 3
Clem 1
UNC 1

So, the good news is that there really arent a ton of teams "in contention." Early losses this week by UNC, Clem, and Mich knock them out. You figure all 3 of Wis, PSU, RU cant get in. Probably 2. Arizona State/USC on Thursday could be a "play-in" game. Both may not get in.

Pitt actually isn't even in 12 of the 85 brackets which is a little scary. These are the ones that updated today. One of them has us as the 7th team out.
Nah, we’re fine. Go to the top prognosticators, we aren’t even On the bubble. The NET slaves on bracket matrix are what’s bringing us down. It’s 8 or 9 seed if we win, 10 or 11 if we lose Weds.
 
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