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Bracketolgy update thread

Lot of upsets today by bubble teams, Pitt included. Arizona state just had a bad loss at least. Wisky lost. UF and O$U. Utah too.
 
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The next game is a huge q1 opportunity at Unc. Win that and we are solidly in. After that the next five we will be clear favorites.

This is already our third best conference win total since joining the acc. Great shot at reaching top win total and win percentage this year
11-7
9-9
8-3 2022-23
 
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Lot of upsets today by bubble teams, Pitt included. Arizona state just had a bad loss at least. Wisky lost. UF and O$U. Utah too.
These pundits will still put Wisconsin in the field, no matter the result. They took a road loss to NW this week on the road, and bracketologists were undeterred at still putting them in. Crazy.
 
Lot of upsets today by bubble teams, Pitt included. Arizona state just had a bad loss at least. Wisky lost. UF and O$U. Utah too.

We dont have anything to fear at this point. And let me explain why following someone like Joe Lunardi is a complete waste of time as he doesn't know what he is doing until the day before the tournament when he gets fed inside information and he changes his bracket all around.

This is Ohio State for example. The most overrated team with the most overrated coach in all of college basketball.

11-10 overall record
3-7 conference record
2 Quad 1 wins
3 Quad 2 wins
1-6 road record
2-2 neutral record
1 Quad 4 loss

A team like this has a better chance of winning the powerball than making the NCAA Tournament unless they have some miracle run in the Big 10 tournament or magically start beating everyone from here on out.

Lunardi actually thinks this is a bubble team right now. They got blown out again today by Indiana. They are not even close to the bubble.

This is Pitt.

15-7 record
8-3 conference record
3 Quad 1 wins
4 Quad 2 wins
5-2 road record
0-2 neutral record
1 Quad 4 loss

Team B, Pitt is safely in right now. Team A, Ohio State, isnt remotely close to being a bubble team. And Pitt is very close to having 2 more Quad 1 wins with North Carolina and Miami who just missed the cut.


The stuff here, Quad 1, followed by Quad 2, road record, neutral record, conference record, this stuff is important in the selection process. Q1, Q2, and road record are probably most important and in that order. The Selection committee wants to know if you can beat good teams and can do it outside of your gym because the ncaa tournament is neutral location. That is why the priority is Q1, Q2, road record, followed by other stuff like overall record and conference record.

Teams like Wake Forest, Wisconsin, etc.. also are not close to Pitt when it comes to tournament resume's right now.

For the moment, we are in excellent shape as of today.
 
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Let’s face it. Brand matters. Ohio State, WVU and others that are consistently making tournaments will get the benefit of the doubt in tournament selection over us if it comes down to it. Subconscious bias, TV ratings, history, legendary coaches (Huggins, Jimmy B) those things all play a factor whether the committee admits it or not. Same way Pitt fights an uphill battle until consistently good in football in AP rankings.

Last 10 games, which is right now and ACC tournament, February, all weigh heavily. How you’re playing at end of the season always a factor.

Don’t give them a choice. Go 6-3 in these last 9 and ACC tournament doesn’t matter. Go 5-4 and lose first round or beat a crap team and you’re still sweating it out. 4-5 and it’s dicey. 3-6 we’re out. I don’t expect anything less than 5-4 unless something crazy happens with Burton. As long as he’s healthy we’re in.

So go 7-2 and give them no choice, imo. Wednesday is now a luxury at this point. Win would be huge and then you start talking about seeding but loss doesn’t move the needle the other way. Win win for Pitt.
 
In fairness
But not much
These were 2 must win games for our resume -
And we won them

Which keeps us in the Mix - it doesn’t punch out tickets
It doesn’t punch out tickets but there is no way you can look at Pitt’s resume and entire body of work and sit there and tell me as we sit here today on Jan 29th that they aren’t solidly in the tournament and they shouldn’t be on the last 4 In line. They have too many quality wins, only really one bad loss, and a pretty decent NET ranking from where I sit to not think they aren’t in the tournament right now if it started today. Obviously still a lot of work to be done but as long as Pitt wins the games they are supposed to win the rest of the season they will be in the field of 68 come mid March. There is just no way you can look at them right now and their overall body of work and tell me that they aren’t in the tournament as we sit here today.
 
After the Miami win Pitt’s net ranking moved from 62 to 62. That’s right. It didn’t move at all.

Miami’s dropped from 37 to 46.

The OOC schedule and performance is killing the ACC
 
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We dont have anything to fear at this point. And let me explain why following someone like Joe Lunardi is a complete waste of time as he doesn't know what he is doing until the day before the tournament when he gets fed inside information and he changes his bracket all around.

This is Ohio State for example. The most overrated team with the most overrated coach in all of college basketball.

11-10 overall record
3-7 conference record
2 Quad 1 wins
3 Quad 2 wins
1-6 road record
2-2 neutral record
1 Quad 4 loss

A team like this has a better chance of winning the powerball than making the NCAA Tournament unless they have some miracle run in the Big 10 tournament or magically start beating everyone from here on out.

Lunardi actually thinks this is a bubble team right now. They got blown out again today by Indiana. They are not even close to the bubble.

This is Pitt.

15-7 record
8-3 conference record
3 Quad 1 wins
4 Quad 2 wins
5-2 road record
0-2 neutral record
1 Quad 4 loss

Team B, Pitt is safely in right now. Team A, Ohio State, isnt remotely close to being a bubble team. And Pitt is very close to having 2 more Quad 1 wins with North Carolina and Miami who just missed the cut.


The stuff here, Quad 1, followed by Quad 2, road record, neutral record, conference record, this stuff is important in the selection process. Q1, Q2, and road record are probably most important and in that order. The Selection committee wants to know if you can beat good teams and can do it outside of your gym because the ncaa tournament is neutral location. That is why the priority is Q1, Q2, road record, followed by other stuff like overall record and conference record.

Teams like Wake Forest, Wisconsin, etc.. also are not close to Pitt when it comes to tournament resume's right now.

For the moment, we are in excellent shape as of today.
Plus didn't that have tOSU's game on prime time ABC or was it CBS, last night? Why?
 
Michigan is absolutely getting obliterated by Penn State by 30 right now. Oh how that game taking place just a few weeks later into the schedule could have made a big difference.
 
Michigan is absolutely getting obliterated by Penn State by 30 right now. Oh how that game taking place just a few weeks later into the schedule could have made a big difference.


Nitters went on an 18-0 run at the end of the first half that turned a 31-30 game into a 49-30 game.
 
Agreed. The Big Ten isnt that great this year and actually, the SEC isnt either. I know I dog the ACC but I am not seeing a ton of difference between the ACC, B10, and SEC. I'd still rank the ACC behind those 2 but there's not that wide of a gap.
Sagarin and Colley both have the ACC right around the Mountain West at the fringes of "major" this year while ranking Big 10 second to the Big 12.

I love this Pitt team, the grit and experience, but I do think we're winning more games now because ACC teams are weaker at the median than other the conferences.
 
Why was Ohio State's game on FOX last night in prime time rather than a Pitt game? You really can't figure that out?
Again you are adding stuff and making stuff up. I didn't say "rather than the Pitt game". I just said IN GENERAL, a game with an 11-10 team, not really much more than a middle of the road regular season game, against an Indiana team that was 14-6 and unranked before the game started? That is a game that is a NATIONAL DRAW? Really? To be totally honest it's a lesser matchup that Pitt (15-7) vs. Miami #20 (20-5) SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP. So the REAL FANS like yourself, who aren't tOSU or Indiana fans, are drawn to this middle of the road matchup, between a very mediocre 11-10 and another slightly above average team, kind of like Pitt? They see this as some sort of NATIONAL SHOWDOWN? :) :) :)

Before you tell me that Indiana is a blue blood, they've been a blue blood like Nebraska is a football blue blood these days, they's been less relevant than Pitt this century.
 
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Again you are adding stuff and making stuff up. I didn't say "rather than the Pitt game". I just said IN GENERAL, a game with an 11-10 team, not really much more than a middle of the road regular season game, against an Indiana team that was 14-6 and unranked before the game started? That is a game that is a NATIONAL DRAW? Really? To be totally honest it's a lesser matchup that Pitt (15-7) vs. Miami #20 (20-5) SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP. So the REAL FANS like yourself, who aren't tOSU or Indiana fans, are drawn to this middle of the road matchup, between a very mediocre 11-10 and another slightly above average team, kind of like Pitt? They see this as some sort of NATIONAL SHOWDOWN? :) :) :)
It was on FOX, who has the enormous Big Ten contract. That’s the only reason why that game was on network TV last night.
 
OK, good answer, that was the best B1G game they could find?
Probably. Not a great slate of games this weekend. Maybe they could have moved Michigan State/Purdue to last night instead of today? The only alternative yesterday was Illinois/Wisconsin, but that would have made the audience’s eyeballs start bleeding.
 
Again you are adding stuff and making stuff up. I didn't say "rather than the Pitt game". I just said IN GENERAL, a game with an 11-10 team, not really much more than a middle of the road regular season game, against an Indiana team that was 14-6 and unranked before the game started? That is a game that is a NATIONAL DRAW? Really? To be totally honest it's a lesser matchup that Pitt (15-7) vs. Miami #20 (20-5) SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP. So the REAL FANS like yourself, who aren't tOSU or Indiana fans, are drawn to this middle of the road matchup, between a very mediocre 11-10 and another slightly above average team, kind of like Pitt? They see this as some sort of NATIONAL SHOWDOWN? :) :) :)

Before you tell me that Indiana is a blue blood, they've been a blue blood like Nebraska is a football blue blood these days, they's been less relevant than Pitt this century.


Unlike college football, where games times and television slots are not determined until 12 days, or sometimes 6 day, before the games are played, college basketball game times and television slots are picked months before the season began. So even if Fox were for some reason want to televise a Pitt-Miami game that they don't have the rights to broadcast they couldn't. Even if they wanted to pick a different Big Ten game, they couldn't. Even if they wanted to pick a different game that they actually owned the rights to, they couldn't.

There are occasionally times when a television assignment is not predetermined, but that's when, for example, ESPN has the rights to two games and they are going to show one on ESPN and one on ESPN2 and they don't decide which is which until later. Doesn't change the game time, doesn't change who owns the rights to show the game, only changes which specific one of their channels the game is going to be on.

An example of that would be the game against Georgia Tech next month. The game is on February 21. That is not changing. The game will start at 7:00. That is not changing. But they have not decided yet (or maybe they have and Pitt just hasn't updated their information) if the game will be on ESPN or the ACC Network. The Miami - Virginia Tech game that starts at the same time has a similar designation. The date and time won't change, only which specific channel each game will be on.

And if you don't think that an Ohio State - Indiana basketball game is going to get higher television ratings than a Pitt - Miami basketball game I don't know what to say. You'd have to be a simpleton to not understand that, or why a television network would prefer that.
 
Maybe they could have moved Michigan State/Purdue to last night instead of today?


College basketball scheduling simply does not work that way.

And even if it did work that way, why would CBS have agreed to give up a game they had for national broadcast to Fox because Fox thought it was a better game?
 
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Sagarin and Colley both have the ACC right around the Mountain West at the fringes of "major" this year while ranking Big 10 second to the Big 12.

I love this Pitt team, the grit and experience, but I do think we're winning more games now because ACC teams are weaker at the median than other the conferences.
Maybe you can tell Sagarin and Colley that Pitt basically obliterated the second best team in the mighty Big Ten this year, Is the Big Ten that good, or is it the name and an overrated conference? Aside from Purdue (who is a very good team), I say bring it on and let Pitt compete with any of those teams in the tournament.
 
Maybe you can tell Sagarin and Colley that Pitt basically obliterated the second best team in the mighty Big Ten this year, Is the Big Ten that good, or is it the name and an overrated conference? Aside from Purdue (who is a very good team), I say bring it on and let Pitt compete with any of those teams in the tournament.
I feel very comfortable saying that this Pitt team would have a very similar conference record in the Big Ten as it does right now in the ACC.
 
Unlike college football, where games times and television slots are not determined until 12 days, or sometimes 6 day, before the games are played, college basketball game times and television slots are picked months before the season began. So even if Fox were for some reason want to televise a Pitt-Miami game that they don't have the rights to broadcast they couldn't. Even if they wanted to pick a different Big Ten game, they couldn't. Even if they wanted to pick a different game that they actually owned the rights to, they couldn't.

There are occasionally times when a television assignment is not predetermined, but that's when, for example, ESPN has the rights to two games and they are going to show one on ESPN and one on ESPN2 and they don't decide which is which until later. Doesn't change the game time, doesn't change who owns the rights to show the game, only changes which specific one of their channels the game is going to be on.

An example of that would be the game against Georgia Tech next month. The game is on February 21. That is not changing. The game will start at 7:00. That is not changing. But they have not decided yet (or maybe they have and Pitt just hasn't updated their information) if the game will be on ESPN or the ACC Network. The Miami - Virginia Tech game that starts at the same time has a similar designation. The date and time won't change, only which specific channel each game will be on.

And if you don't think that an Ohio State - Indiana basketball game is going to get higher television ratings than a Pitt - Miami basketball game I don't know what to say. You'd have to be a simpleton to not understand that, or why a television network would prefer that.
I endorse Joe the Panther Fan. Explanation doesn't get much better than this.
 
Probably. Not a great slate of games this weekend. Maybe they could have moved Michigan State/Purdue to last night instead of today? The only alternative yesterday was Illinois/Wisconsin, but that would have made the audience’s eyeballs start bleeding.

What I never really understood is why networks pick the gametimes before the season whereas in football they only choose 6-12 days before. Not sure what other options there were but if you are intent on doing a Saturday Night hoops on Bart Simpson Fox, it would probably be a good idea to give yourself some flexibility. I realize you cant do this for weeknight games as teams have their hotel and charter flights booked but there is some flexibility on Saturday. Shouldn't make much difference if you are told a week ahead of time that you play at 8 instead of 4.
 
Sunday update:

First team out.

In 52 of 81 brackets but 15 of 22 who updated today. In contrast, Arizona State is only in 8 of 22.
 
Sunday update:

First team out.

In 52 of 81 brackets but 15 of 22 who updated today. In contrast, Arizona State is only in 8 of 22.
I don’t get it. There’s a lot of basketball left, but if you took a snapshot today, our overall record, quad 1 and 2 wins, wins against ranked opponents. only 1 quad 4 loss and our resume compared to other schools who are mid seeded teams and firmly in, we should be included in all 22 of those updates bracket.
 
I don’t get it. There’s a lot of basketball left, but if you took a snapshot today, our overall record, quad 1 and 2 wins, wins against ranked opponents. only 1 quad 4 loss and our resume compared to other schools who are mid seeded teams and firmly in, we should be included in all 22 of those updates bracket.

100%

Here is current #6 seed Illinois

15-6
Q1 4-5
Q2 3-1
SOS 68
Non-con SOS 180

A Q4 loss to FSU is the only thing that separates us by 5-6 seed lines????? No.
 
100%

Here is current #6 seed Illinois

15-6
Q1 4-5
Q2 3-1
SOS 68
Non-con SOS 180

A Q4 loss to FSU is the only thing that separates us by 5-6 seed lines????? No.
Now here I agree. If the tournament started today no way we shouldn’t be a 7 or 8 seed.
 
Now here I agree. If the tournament started today no way we shouldn’t be a 7 or 8 seed.

And here is another #6 seed Indiana (Pitt in parentheses)

15-6 (15-7)
3-5 (3-2)
3-1 (4-4)
SOS 65 (57)
Non-con SOS 157 (153)

Again, a loss to FSU drops them 5-6 lines?

The best I can tell is that these bracketologists are using a team's NET rank like RPI used to be used. You were picked and seeded based on your RPI, more or less. Pitt's NET is bad. But I have read that your actual NET is like a 3rd tier criteria. So Pitt having a NET much lower than IU/Ill shouldn't matter much

 
I get they probably have to over perform to get in this year, but this is worrying me how much more.
 
Unlike college football, where games times and television slots are not determined until 12 days, or sometimes 6 day, before the games are played, college basketball game times and television slots are picked months before the season began. So even if Fox were for some reason want to televise a Pitt-Miami game that they don't have the rights to broadcast they couldn't. Even if they wanted to pick a different Big Ten game, they couldn't. Even if they wanted to pick a different game that they actually owned the rights to, they couldn't.

There are occasionally times when a television assignment is not predetermined, but that's when, for example, ESPN has the rights to two games and they are going to show one on ESPN and one on ESPN2 and they don't decide which is which until later. Doesn't change the game time, doesn't change who owns the rights to show the game, only changes which specific one of their channels the game is going to be on.

An example of that would be the game against Georgia Tech next month. The game is on February 21. That is not changing. The game will start at 7:00. That is not changing. But they have not decided yet (or maybe they have and Pitt just hasn't updated their information) if the game will be on ESPN or the ACC Network. The Miami - Virginia Tech game that starts at the same time has a similar designation. The date and time won't change, only which specific channel each game will be on.

And if you don't think that an Ohio State - Indiana basketball game is going to get higher television ratings than a Pitt - Miami basketball game I don't know what to say. You'd have to be a simpleton to not understand that, or why a television network would prefer that.
So fans are basically clueless, they simply watch based on the names of the teams? So 11-10 Ohio State is an attractive team to watch for non tOSU fans? I guess they like to see Bobby Knight? And again, you're MAKING SH!T UP. I never said for Fox to broadcast Pitt/Miami instead YOU SAID THAT, If FOX has a B1G contract, show one of the good teams, like top ranked Purdue? If that's against the rule, as you say how am I supposed to know that? I'm supposed to analyze all the clauses in all the networks TV contracts before making a comment that it's pitiful AND IT IS PITIFUL that 11-10 tOSU is shown on a main network in prime time instead of a good team? I wasn't suggesting that it be Pitt YOU SAID THAT. Some of you people are ridiculous, ALL I SAID WAS "why is a crappy 11-10 team being shown on primetime?" on FOX or whatever channel it was. There are almost no college basketball games on ABC, CBS or FOX at 8pm on a Saturday Night and they pick that one? We're not talking about in Indiana or Ohio, I can't see why that would appeal to the rest of the country.
 
College basketball scheduling simply does not work that way.

And even if it did work that way, why would CBS have agreed to give up a game they had for national broadcast to Fox because Fox thought it was a better game?
Again, most people aren't obsessed enough or care enough to know all the rules behind which games are being broadcast and why? Why don't you write a 4 paragraph post lambasting Pittchagg for not having memorized all the rules behind college basketball broadcasting like you apparently have? Most of us have lives, no time to memorize all that useless trivia.
 
And here is another #6 seed Indiana (Pitt in parentheses)

15-6 (15-7)
3-5 (3-2)
3-1 (4-4)
SOS 65 (57)
Non-con SOS 157 (153)

Again, a loss to FSU drops them 5-6 lines?

The best I can tell is that these bracketologists are using a team's NET rank like RPI used to be used. You were picked and seeded based on your RPI, more or less. Pitt's NET is bad. But I have read that your actual NET is like a 3rd tier criteria. So Pitt having a NET much lower than IU/Ill shouldn't matter much

Why did they get rid of RPI in the first place? For me it was easy to understand and I liked that method.
 
Maybe you can tell Sagarin and Colley that Pitt basically obliterated the second best team in the mighty Big Ten this year, Is the Big Ten that good, or is it the name and an overrated conference? Aside from Purdue (who is a very good team), I say bring it on and let Pitt compete with any of those teams in the tournament.
Thats because Pitt may be the best team in the ACC. We also lost to Michigan by 31 somehow. Though no doubt our team gelled a lot since then. I agree the Big 10 doesn't have any teams except Purdue I could see in the final four, they just seem to have a lot of decent teams so I guess computers like that.

But the ACC is a combined 23-29 against the other "major" conferences (and 1-3 and 1-0 against the fringe AAC and MWC.) That's not terrible but it's more of the same of late as ACC teams continue to lose recruiting battles, especially to the SEC.

I'm not a conference pride guy post Big East so it's fine, I'd rather Pitt compete for a title than have a #1 ranked Duke or UNC team of course.
 
Thats because Pitt may be the best team in the ACC. We also lost to Michigan by 31 somehow. Though no doubt our team gelled a lot since then. I agree the Big 10 doesn't have any teams except Purdue I could see in the final four, they just seem to have a lot of decent teams so I guess computers like that.

But the ACC is a combined 23-29 against the other "major" conferences (and 1-3 and 1-0 against the fringe AAC and MWC.) That's not terrible but it's more of the same of late as ACC teams continue to lose recruiting battles, especially to the SEC.

I'm not a conference pride guy post Big East so it's fine, I'd rather Pitt compete for a title than have a #1 ranked Duke or UNC team of course.

Take away the Big 12 though and what's the ACC's record? The ACC is similar to B10, SEC, etc and that's not because the ACC is good but those leagues have underperformed. There's really not an absolute clear #2
 
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