Bracketology 12/10

[Pitt666]

Lunardi now has Pitt as an 8.

5 ACC teams
Duke 2
Unc 4
Clemson 10
Wake 11 last four in

Has 11 sec bids with lsu as first four out

 

[GaryMcgheeForThree]

Lunardi now has Pitt as an 8.

5 ACC teams
Duke 2
Unc 4
Clemson 10
Wake 11 last four in

Has 11 sec bids with lsu as first four out

11 is laughable for the SEC, and borderline idiotic.

The big east did it once in 2011, but the SEC is not nearly as good and deep as that year for the BE.

The SEC has also never gotten more than 8 teams ever.

I guess numbers will inflate the power conference numbers with the PAC-12 disintegrating, but that’ll only help the other conferences and not the SEC.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

go 2-1 next 3 and ticket punched!

 

[pittchagg]

Play good teams, get rewarded win or lose. Not a complicated formula.

 

[Pitt666]

Play good teams, get rewarded win or lose. Not a complicated formula.

I think adding “competitively” after play good teams is an important qualifier though… Had Pitt lost to Wisconsin by say 20….

 

[pittchagg]

I think adding “competitively” after play good teams is an important qualifier though… Had Pitt lost to Wisconsin by say 20….

Absolutely. But this is the kind of schedule that a tournament team should play. Play good teams, play them hard, and the end W/L result becomes much less relevant.

 

[noelr]

concerned about m$u and o$u

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

go 2-1 next 3 and ticket punched!

Forget VT. That's a win and if it isnt, we have major issues.

2-0 = NCAAT lock
1-1 = bubble
0-2 = NIT.....unless we go 15-5 in the ACC, maybe 14-6 depending on who we beat

 

[whirlybird optio]

Forget VT. That's a win and if it isnt, we have major issues.

2-0 = NCAAT lock
1-1 = bubble
0-2 = NIT.....unless we go 15-5 in the ACC, maybe 14-6 depending on who we beat

If we go 2-1 and take care of VT on the road by a healthy margin we will be somewhere between 15-20 in the NET. That’s not even close to bubble. Probably like a 7-8 seed going into ACC play. Just go 11-9 or 12-8 we will be fine.

Pitt is going to be a computer darling this season.

Unc, Duke, Pitt, Clemson are getting in.

After that probably 2 of: Wake, Louisville, Stanford, ND, UVA, FSU.

I hadn’t counted on the ACC computer numbers being as good as they are.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Forget VT. That's a win and if it isnt, we have major issues.

2-0 = NCAAT lock
1-1 = bubble
0-2 = NIT.....unless we go 15-5 in the ACC, maybe 14-6 depending on who we beat

Wrong

 

[SteelBowl70]

Forget VT. That's a win and if it isnt, we have major issues.

2-0 = NCAAT lock
1-1 = bubble
0-2 = NIT.....unless we go 15-5 in the ACC, maybe 14-6 depending on who we beat

Given that Dunn should be available for the last 16 games (after Duke which is 6 weeks from tonight) , I don’t see any of those conference games which aren’t winnable. Our bench will be stronger for the stretch run having to play the next 7-8 games without Dunn. And there’s no way we lose 5 home games again this year.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Forget VT. That's a win and if it isnt, we have major issues.

2-0 = NCAAT lock
1-1 = bubble
0-2 = NIT.....unless we go 15-5 in the ACC, maybe 14-6 depending on who we beat

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

 

[whirlybird optio]

Given that Dunn should be available for the last 16 games (after Duke which is 6 weeks from tonight) , I don’t see any of those conference games which aren’t winnable. The key is to get and then stay healthy.

We were the 4th team out last year with 14-6 in the ACC.

We had an abysmal OOC strength of schedule. Zero top 100 wins.

This season, our OOC strength of schedule is excellent. We will possibly have 3 top 100 wins, at least 2. (Not counting Ohio St and miss st)

Even if we lose both of them, we are in excellent shape. It’s totally different than last season.

 

[PittMBA]

Forget VT. That's a win and if it isnt, we have major issues.

2-0 = NCAAT lock
1-1 = bubble
0-2 = NIT.....unless we go 15-5 in the ACC, maybe 14-6 depending on who we beat

1-1 and their KenPom is like 15 ( or better )
0-2 ken Pom in low 20s

barring a home loss or loss to Va Tech - we should be in very good position heading into ACC play. Can probably absorb a loss to VT if we go 1-1 OSU / MSU

2-0 and we might be like in 3 seed territory headed into January

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

It's good to see so many people recognizing the SMF really doesn't understand how this all works.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If we go 2-1 and take care of VT on the road by a healthy margin we will be somewhere between 15-20 in the NET. That’s not even close to bubble. Probably like a 7-8 seed going into ACC play. Just go 11-9 or 12-8 we will be fine.

Pitt is going to be a computer darling this season.

Unc, Duke, Pitt, Clemson are getting in.

After that probably 2 of: Wake, Louisville, Stanford, ND, UVA, FSU.

I hadn’t counted on the ACC computer numbers being as good as they are.

I'm not talking about right now. Yea, if we go 0-2, we may still be in bracketology but I'm talking about at the end of the season. I am making some assumptions:

- LSU & WVU wont be good

- We will go 13-7 in the ACC

- We will go 0-3 vs Duke/UNC

None of that may happen. But it could and I think it will. This is why I say that if we go 0-2, we will not make the NCAA Tournament. If LSU or WVU is good or we go 14-6 or 15-5 or we beat Duke/UNC, then, yes, we can make it.

 

[pittjas]

I'm not talking about right now. Yea, if we go 0-2, we may still be in bracketology but I'm talking about at the end of the season. I am making some assumptions:

- LSU & WVU wont be good

- We will go 13-7 in the ACC

- We will go 0-3 vs Duke/UNC

None of that may happen. But it could and I think it will. This is why I say that if we go 0-2, we will not make the NCAA Tournament. If LSU or WVU is good or we go 14-6 or 15-5 or we beat Duke/UNC, then, yes, we can make it.

You are truly dumb.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I'm not talking about right now. Yea, if we go 0-2, we may still be in bracketology but I'm talking about at the end of the season. I am making some assumptions:

- LSU & WVU wont be good

- We will go 13-7 in the ACC

- We will go 0-3 vs Duke/UNC

None of that may happen. But it could and I think it will. This is why I say that if we go 0-2, we will not make the NCAA Tournament. If LSU or WVU is good or we go 14-6 or 15-5 or we beat Duke/UNC, then, yes, we can make it.

If we go 13-7. And LSU ends up being a NIT level SEC team. A WVU a Big 12 bottom feeder.

And we go 13-7, losing to Duke/Unc 3 times.

We will still make it, probably easily. Would still have an excellent SOS. We would be in 10x better position than last year when we had a truly awful SOS and got bit by 10 bid stealers and still were the 4th team out.

Even in your scenario, we are fine.

 

[Pitt666]

Lunardi now has Pitt as a 5.
WVU one of last four in. LSU next four out. 5 AcC total (Duke, Unc, Pitt, Clemson, and Lville in Dayton).

 

[Pitt_Boss]

The overall demise of the ACC is sad, should be a 7-8 bid league. But it can work in Pitt's favor if we beat up on all the mid teams in our league. We are somehow good again and Capel has some momentum. If we can sustain being a Top 4 team in the league for a couple more seasons, we will be building up equity that should help in recruiting, attendance, selections/seeding, etc.

The league's current reputation hurts us - still mad a Top 4 ACC team didn't make field last year - but if we can solidify a spot a regular in the Top 4 we may be able to mitigate that to some degree.

 

[Pitt666]

The overall demise of the ACC is sad, should be a 7-8 bid league. But it can work in Pitt's favor if we beat up on all the mid teams in our league. We are somehow good again and Capel has some momentum. If we can sustain being a Top 4 team in the league for a couple more seasons, we will be building up equity that should help in recruiting, attendance, selections/seeding, etc.

The league's current reputation hurts us - still mad a Top 4 ACC team didn't make field last year - but if we can solidify a spot a regular in the Top 4 we may be able to mitigate that to some degree.

I am curious how attendance is next week, particularly if Pitt wins at Miss State and VT. Pitt would be a top 15 team in both polls. Pitt was a 8-9 seed in Dixons last years, then 0-19, multiple losing seasons, and while it was exciting the last two years, Pitt was still a bubble team. I do think the crowds return for an elite Pitt team. This should be the first 4 seed or better team in almost 13 years.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I am curious how attendance is next week, particularly if Pitt wins at Miss State and VT. Pitt would be a top 15 team in both polls. Pitt was a 8-9 seed in Dixons last years, then 0-19, multiple losing seasons, and while it was exciting the last two years, Pitt was still a bubble team. I do think the crowds return for an elite Pitt team. This should be the first 4 seed or better team in almost 13 years.

We drew well on Saturdays for ACC games the last 2 years. Sold out a couple. I'd expect that to continue. Weeknights were a morgue. Perhaps we can sell better for ACC weeknights.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Lunardi now has Pitt as a 5.
WVU one of last four in. LSU next four out. 5 AcC total (Duke, Unc, Pitt, Clemson, and Lville in Dayton).

This is really bad and why I dont consider the ACC as part of the Power 3. The ACC is with the Big East and MWC. Getting only 3 of the 16 teams not named Duke or UNC in is completely ridiculous. Wake badly needs a win this week. There arent too many left who can make it. FSU, SMU, Stan, Cal, and Syr have ok records but have had terrible schedules. Probably 5 or maybe 6. Luckily Pitt is one.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

The last two yrs were 21 and 12-8 right? which were bubble world going into conf tourneys.. Get off of those numbers. Off to a good start.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I am curious how attendance is next week, particularly if Pitt wins at Miss State and VT. Pitt would be a top 15 team in both polls. Pitt was a 8-9 seed in Dixons last years, then 0-19, multiple losing seasons, and while it was exciting the last two years, Pitt was still a bubble team. I do think the crowds return for an elite Pitt team. This should be the first 4 seed or better team in almost 13 years.

There aren't going to be big crowds for a mid-week game in December against Eastern Kentucky pretty much no matter where we are ranked.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Students will be in finals week, I believe. So I doubt many will show up for the games. Then they'll be on Christmas break.

 

[Tvax1]

UMD is making tOSU win look less awesome early.....up 27-10

at UMD but we need to just worry about ourselves and each game and getting better with Kante hopefully a positive that can be consistent

let's get another nice one tonight!

 

[Pitt666]

UMD is making tOSU win look less awesome early.....up 27-10

at UMD but we need to just worry about ourselves and each game and getting better with Kante hopefully a positive that can be consistent

let's get another nice one tonight!

They are only up 33 at the half. Pitt gave them blueprint for defense

 

[BFo8]

I had thought all year Ohio St was maybe a little overrated but 63-23 is inexcusable.

 

[Pitt666]

Dropped to a 7 seed today by Lunardi but seems fair. Will get some stability with the next four games where Pitt will be favored at home. Win and increase position and metrics. It’s harder to move up so ensuring a high start prior to continued conference play will be beneficial for march.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Dropped to a 7 seed today by Lunardi but seems fair. Will get some stability with the next four games where Pitt will be favored at home. Win and increase position and metrics. It’s harder to move up so ensuring a high start prior to continued conference play will be beneficial for march.

Too low. NET is 16. P3 & ACC teams dont get seeded more than 2 spots off their NET line. And right now, the resume is really good. The OSU & WVU wins are really good and LSU is decent for now. Probably a 4 or 5. Maybe a 3. But a long way to go.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

11 is laughable for the SEC, and borderline idiotic.

The big east did it once in 2011, but the SEC is not nearly as good and deep as that year for the BE.

The SEC has also never gotten more than 8 teams ever.

I guess numbers will inflate the power conference numbers with the PAC-12 disintegrating, but that’ll only help the other conferences and not the SEC.

We were 2-12 against the SEC. Okay?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We were 2-12 against the SEC. Okay?

2-14

You can make a case for 15 SEC bids right now. Lunardi has 12 in. With LSU, Vandy, and Mizzou just on the outside. They are going to cannibalize each other but I do think they get 12 or 13. The quality of depth in this year's SEC is the best of all time. And that shouldn't really come as a surprise. The ACC has 4 right now so between the 2 leagues, that's 16 NCAAT teams. The SEC has just essentially taken all the talent from who would normally play in the ACC.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

2-14

You can make a case for 15 SEC bids right now. Lunardi has 12 in. With LSU, Vandy, and Mizzou just on the outside. They are going to cannibalize each other but I do think they get 12 or 13. The quality of depth in this year's SEC is the best of all time. And that shouldn't really come as a surprise. The ACC has 4 right now so between the 2 leagues, that's 16 NCAAT teams. The SEC has just essentially taken all the talent from who would normally play in the ACC.

I still cannot believe the ACC, I mean the ACC which started the tradition of conference tourneys, etc...the history and it is so horrible at basketball. Really took some coaching hits and Hamilton and Larranaga on their last laps, and Bennett and Boeheim now gone, these programs really need to look at themselves, and the conference itself needs to change its approach. For one, get the **** out of Greensboro and stop that Carolina Ford Dealers mentality. Got to think bigger and more globally. The SEC is just abusing the ACC now worse in hoops than in football.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I still cannot believe the ACC, I mean the ACC which started the tradition of conference tourneys, etc...the history and it is so horrible at basketball. Really took some coaching hits and Hamilton and Larranaga on their last laps, and Bennett and Boeheim now gone, these programs really need to look at themselves, and the conference itself needs to change its approach. For one, get the **** out of Greensboro and stop that Carolina Ford Dealers mentality. Got to think bigger and more globally. The SEC is just abusing the ACC now worse in hoops than in football.

Yea. The ACC is closer to the SEC in football than hoops. We can come up with a lot of things that need changed, like Greensboro or whatever but the bottom line is the AD's need to hire better coaches. Syracuse and UNC and Louisville shouldn't be buying assistant coach lottery tickets. They should be offering top dollar to the top coaches out there. Syracuse and Louisville being down for so long is a problem. Then UNC is hit or miss with Hubert. Larranaga and Hamilton are in semi-retirement, though Hamilton may have something this year.

I said last week that the league needs to take some votes on steps to be taken. The one I'd like to see is some agreement on a minimum coaching salary. These schools have to stop going so cheap and hoping to hit a winning lottery ticket.