Bring on the fans at Heinz Field
- Thread starter superstein61a
- Start date
Again, we will see. Putting sick people into nursing homes was pretty f’n dumb. NY seems pretty immune to a second wave. Interesting Japan/ Taiwan antibody studies are being done suggesting it was VERY wide spread. Not yet peer-reviewed, however. Gazillions of college kids testing are positive without getting sick. Very good chance this ends up being a really bad ‘flu’ year and nothing more.
Clearly, you aren’t advocating any real sacrifice for your family. School, sports and vacations are AOK for you. Just don’t let fans into games or let anyone fix a toilet.
As for excess death rates, at this point, mental health/ economic issues may be very significant contributors. Being isolated isn’t healthy. This is especially true for really old people in homes.
I see our board jester is at it again.
Doubling down on stupidity is your calling card.
Well done! I expect nothing less from you.
And what is the flu’s survival rate? Sure COVID is more contagious, but we don’t think twice about being exposed to the flu.
And that 200K figure is overstated because this happens in a number of cases - Someone is tested and their PCR result is positive. They recover but in a month or two die from some other cause. Your death certificate is matched to a registry of positive tests and boom, it is listed as a Covid death overstating the totals
Seems to me that we've ended up sort of on the middle road. Not as good as the countries that have been super careful, but we did flatten the curve, and prevent our hospitals from being overrun, which is certainly what would have happened had we taken a "life goes on as usual" approach.
You are correct. However, there's about 15 states at their peak right now for new cases. So while European deaths may rise a little, they won't hold a candle to the US. We got this death thing down. As long as we can go to Home Depot and watch HS boys play football, we're ok with 750 deaths per day.
Middle of the road? Huh? We lead the world in deaths and also lead the developed world in death rate (accounting for population). To top it off, we also have one of the highest unemployment rates in the developed world. The US's response has been the worst in the developed world by far. Its not even remotely close.
And they didn't have deaths GTFO. MAYBE IF WE DIDNT STUFF THEM IN SHELTERS WITH THE EDERLY AND COUNT SO MANY
And they didn't have deaths GTFO. MAYBE IF WE DIDNT STUFF THEM IN SHELTERS WITH THE EDERLY AND COUNT SO MANY THAT WERE DEATHS CAUSED BY OTHER SHIT. GTFO
Michigan is in the top ten of states in deaths per 1 million population. Michigan is at 702 deaths per million. The 25th state on the list, in other words basically the middle in terms of rates by state, is California. They are at 386 per million. So if having almost twice as many deaths per million is your idea of success, just what in the world does failure look like?
Its time to let some fans into the games. Have a percentage in big Heinz Field and wear masks. The parents should definitely be able to go.
You are absolutely incorrect about the most accurate way to compute deaths from Covid. You will get no more accurate way to compute deaths than the way it is done currently. At the time of death a physician makes a determination of what caused each death. Is that perfect? No, but no other way is better. Taking total deaths from other years is worthless because you are adding more variables to the equation such as the total deaths during Covid is way down for other causes because travel and other activities are greatly reduced. Flu deaths are very much reduced during this time.
Calling others stupid because they believe your reasoning is off, is really being stupid.
That is just incorrect. If you die a month or so after having Covid, you are not listed as the cause of death being Covid unless Covid is determined to be a significant reason for your death. There are so many falsehoods out there about these death rates, mostly from right wing internet sites dealing In conspiracy theories. That does not mean that there are not errors in the recording of causes of death, but there are probably many more under recordings of Covid deaths because many people have have had sudden deaths without ever being tested for Covid.
How many death certificates have you written?
I was being sarcastic. Obviously the best way to accurately count COVID deaths is by what's on the death certificate. Morons out there believe there is some mass conspiracy out there to make the numbers look higher. Are there some cases where a patient has a month to live due to cancer but catches COVID, dies, and is counted (as it technically should) as a COVID death, sure but the thought that we're just counting car crash victims as COVID deaths if they had COVID at the time is insane.
pittdan77
Athletic Director
While I agree SMF is a know nothing, your argument is with me (other than him starting with the name calling) . 38k people die in car accidents each year. How much do you think that was reduced because of a few month lockdown? How many people die of flu in the summer? The numbers you are talking about aren't significant, and will likely be made up by the impact of the lockdown actually causing deaths. Unless you think hospital admissions for myocardial infarcts, strokes, and other major issues dropped during the lockdown because people stopped having them. Year over year deaths are surprisingly consistent when spread across 330 million people.
This governor is out anyway, so Pitt can look good to the legislature. Pitt should flex it's muscles and have UPMC handle the logistics and get this done.
Sorry. I reread your post after I wrote my post. I was actually agreeing with you.
Deaths are consistent usually, but not during a pandemic. Total deaths as a way to compute deaths from Covid is just plain absurd. What is so difficult to understand? We have death certificates to actually count up the deaths from Covid. There is no more accurate method to get the actual count!
In the past causes of death for some conditions had to be estimated because there was no way to get an accurate count such as flu deaths. Using total deaths as a means to help get an estimate of deaths for that made sense, but not when there are actual causes of death that are reasonably accurate available on written documents as in death certificates. All one has to do is count them up! We do not need to get an estimate of the deaths due to Covid when we can get an actual count. Let me make it easy to understand: a good example would be crowd size at a Pitt game. We could look at the crowd and estimate the crowd size visually or we could actually count each person as they hand in there tickets. Yes there might be some fans there without tickets, but overall which way gives the better accurate count? Some of you might believe that your visualized estimate to be more accurate than actual count, but you would be incorrect.
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Sorry, but both are good to consider. Death certificates are more detailed and for any given case, the best indicator. BUT, determining cause of death is tough. Determining if someone dies is easy and is therefore at least equally trustworthy, IMO.
Have u ever been to Europe? Do the people in Europe or for that matter all over the world look like Americans. Obesity and it’s concomitant health problems, high blood pressue and diabetes, are responsible for many of the corona virus deaths in The U. S. A.
i can’t put into words how much I loathe the “don’t see this reported” line. Because it tries to make a “subtle point” that the person talking “knows something” that isn’t being reported. And thus it leads people to let their guard down.
So for the 26th time accross Pantherlair message boards...
This is/was/never will be people just dropping dead in the streets. What it *always* has been was low probabilty of bad outcomes that becomes a huge problem through scale and longevity.
That’s again - low probability of bad outcomes that become a huge problem with scale and time
Billions of encounters creates millions of infections. Millions of infections as the base to those % create a lot of death. And quite possibly the worst thing, is no known end point creates an enormous problem.
So %’s mean very little if you can’t control the scale.
You choose to believe death certificates that have been proven to be inconsistent and incorrect for years, even before Covid. There's plenty of literature and studies out there done by state and federal agencies.
I'll take everything with a grain of salt, wait, and ultimately believe math. Could be underreported, could be overreported. Time will tell.
This country has gone batshit crazy and I don't believe anyone. I can't turn any news station on because they're all political campaign propaganda stations.
The gray area though is comorbidities and/or the actual final cause of death.
So that’s why excess deaths is an important metric. That has consistently been at or above the Covid count. Therefore, any anomolies each way have nonetheless resulted in a slight undercount in aggregate. That’s what the numbers say despite any anecdotes of a person that might have been added that shouldn’t have been.
pittdan77
Athletic Director
It will take years to wrap our heads around the total affected death count. Right now, most of it is anecdotal because we're still in the trees and can't wrap our arms around the whole data set, yet. We know excess deaths are up and why, when it is documented. There is much more in the underlying data that needs to be considered, both with, and without some of the opinionated subtext because it might not be all cut and dry.
You almost got there with your analogy, but not quite.
In reality it's more like what actually does happen in the real world. Pitt announces an attendance number based on how many tickets they sold, how many tickets they gave away to everyone that they give them away to, and sometimes an extra number of people added on to make the numbers look a little better. Then other people try to estimate how many people are actually there based on what they see with their own eyes. And then there is the truth, the actual number of people who entered the stadium and attended the game.
The death certificate count is the first one. Everyone knows that the counts are currently being overstated. Or, well, OK, anyone who is paying attention and has even a modicum of common sense knows that the counts are currently being overstated. The question isn't if, it's by how much. Much like Pitt game attendance. Sometimes Pitt announces a number that is pretty close to the truth. Other times they don't. None of us actually know by exactly how much, we just know it's happening.
If sometime next year it comes out that the total number of deaths this year is right in line with what would have been expected without the virus that doesn't mean that the virus didn't kill anyone, but it will tell you something about how far off the counts are. On the other hand, if at the end of the year the official count is 250,000 higher than what would have been expected (just to pick a semi-random number) and the virus estimate is 300,000 deaths then that would tell us something completely different.
Or we can all just bury our heads in the sand.
Again you have an opinion about death certificates being inaccurate, but that is not based on facts. Death certificates do have mistakes, but they are far more accurate than any estimate. They have not been proven to be inaccurate on the large scale. These certificates are generally filled out or dictated by physicians who took care of the dying/dead patient. To the best of their expertise, that physician fills out a form using the most accurate information about the patient that is available to that physician. Who is better to make that decision? Maybe you would do a better job.
Again you begin with a statement that “everyone knows death certificates are overstating Covid deaths”. That statement is incorrect. Most real experts believe that the death certificates are undercounting Covid deaths. I am not talking about right wing conspiracies internet site, I am talking about real scientific/medical sites and journals. Yes there are some “doctor” that have stated the overcount, but these are outliers, not medical experts in the field of epidemiology or infectious disease.
By the way, I never mentioned the ticket sold count by Pitt. I said counting the fans as they enter the event with tickets.
There is almost no way that is happening. No matter how many times CNN and MSNBC tell you so. How many stories have to be out there about deaths being attributed to Covid for people who had other conditions that were already killing them for you to get that? We are currently paying people to list the deaths as being from Covid. And most often you get what you pay for. Why would this be any different?
However, if that is what's happening then the total number of deaths for the year will clearly show that. You should be arguing that when that number gets announced we'll see how badly they are under counting the total. And yet you aren't. Hmmmm. I wonder why?
So true..
The Social Dilemma on Netflix places much of the blame for increases in global polarization and intolerance and violence on Social Media...
By the way, getting back the the original topic of this thread the Stillers put out a statement that said that they hope to have some number of fans in the stands for their game against the Iggles on October 11.
Interesting article re: excess deaths this year in the USA.
hub.jhu.edu
Excess deaths show the true impact of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Epidemiologist Justin Lessler unpacks a recent CDC report on comorbidities and coronavirus deaths that is being misinterpreted on social media
hub.jhu.edu
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