Can somebody help me understand this?

Discussion in 'Locker Room' started by gary2, Mar 31, 2020.

  1. gary2

    gary2 Assistant Coach
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    Fauci feels the virus will come back in the fall (but we will be better equipped to combat it)

    If it is going to come back, when does it exit? Things open back up in June or Early July?

    Fauci and Britts both say models predict 100,00 to 240,000 deaths with total self isolation compliance. We have around 4,000 deaths now. Sometime between now and whenever the virus "exits" we are going to have all these deaths? Then we just go back to close to normal until the virus returns in the fall?

    Do 50% of these deaths occur in NY? How big a part of the remaining percentage do NJ, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, LA, Houston, Etc account for?
     
  2. TheSpecialSauce

    TheSpecialSauce Sophomore
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    That is a question(s) that only God can answer.
     
  3. joeydavid

    joeydavid Heisman Winner
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  4. Jim Z

    Jim Z Sophomore
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    On that we can agree on
     
  5. pitt-girl

    pitt-girl Chancellor
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    Our son is home from school. Sometimes (rarely) we indulge in the "news". We've talked repeatedly about why anyone thinks this is just "going away" so that we can all go outside again.

    Or is it "going away" enough to release everyone? Without a herd immunity there is no way this doesn't start spreading all over again.
     
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  6. caleco's

    caleco's All American
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    what i dont get is how can we not copy the immunity antibody of those that have recovered and do it faster than a year,
     
  7. TheSpecialSauce

    TheSpecialSauce Sophomore
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    I would like to think I am a pretty good person who tries to see things from both sides. I am a moderate/possibly shifting to an Independent. You might find we agree on more things than you realize .
     
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  8. pitt-girl

    pitt-girl Chancellor
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    I don't understand the science but I have to think if it was that straightforward they would be working on it. And maybe they are. I'm usually very skeptical when it comes to the government and politics but with this I firmly believe those in the science community are working on everything they possibly can to either treat or eradicate the virus.
     
  9. caleco's

    caleco's All American
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    it seems they all have something in the pipeline to combat this and bolster their current share price
     
  10. HailToPitt1985

    HailToPitt1985 Head Coach
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    The doctors are working on an antibody and with the blood of those who had the virus but who have been cured. That has been going on for a while, since people have been recovering. You won't hear much about that from politicians or the government or the MSM. An antibody for humans could be available in 4 or 5 months.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health...es-might-prove-useful-against-the-coronavirus
     
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  11. joeydavid

    joeydavid Heisman Winner
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    This is a pretty good take from South Korea's Dr. Fauci. 30 minutes and subtitles but good information.

     
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  12. SoufOaklin4Life

    SoufOaklin4Life Lair Hall of Famer
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    Because the antibodies haven’t been identified yet /
    And certainly haven’t been able to be replicated to infer immunity _
    which is a marathon away from the starting line of identifying an antibody -
    Which we are far from
     
  13. caleco's

    caleco's All American
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    thank you

    wow you do have some useful information after alll.
     
  14. Sean Miller Fan

    Sean Miller Fan Lair Hall of Famer
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    Based on the model, deaths will peak on April 16 and go down every day until approximately June/July when the virus will be near early March levels. At that point, one would assume, the country would be opened back up, at least partially. However, because of having more contact with one another, a 2nd wave will hit, probably early fall and we'll have to shut things down again.

    There is no cure and no treatment. Unless this dies out on its own, the virus will spread like wildfire if people continue to have interactions with each other. We may be able to get a couple months of "normalcy" in the late summer/early fall but it will result in the 2nd wave.

    The UW model is updated daily. It now projects 93,000 deaths through August 4. That's up from 82,000 yesterday. The guy running that model was on cable news yesterday and he said the assumptions he makes for the model is that all states will issue stay at home orders by next week that will remain until June 1. He didn't say if he got advice from Buffet Parrothead/PittFamily2's financial advisor, who projects the end of this pandemic by the end of the week.
     
    14 Sean Miller Fan, Apr 1, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
  15. fkthomas

    fkthomas Board of Trustee
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    Fauci doesn’t think the 2nd wave will be as bad. And it won’t be. But...I don’t share his overall optimism even though it’s my nature to look at things in a positive way.
     
  16. Sean Miller Fan

    Sean Miller Fan Lair Hall of Famer
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    I don't think it will be either for 3 reasons:

    1. There will be millions of people with immunity

    2. People will be smarter about their interactions

    3. I dont think things will be fully opened up. Like, I would guess mass gatherings would be limited to 50 or 100 or so.
     
  17. fkthomas

    fkthomas Board of Trustee
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    Treatment algorithms will be better defined, meaning healthcare providers will know what works.

    private industry will have had time to get products (gowns, masks, vents) to the market.

    government won’t be working from scratch.

    maybe if clinical trials show efficacy, treatments and/or vaccines can hit the market in the event of an emergency. Full FDA approval won’t come until 2021. That’s my guess.
     
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  18. gary2

    gary2 Assistant Coach
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    Thanks - Good explanation
     
    18 gary2, Apr 1, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
  19. joeydavid

    joeydavid Heisman Winner
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    If at all. I don't believe the vaccines for SARS or MERS have ever been completed.
     
  20. fkthomas

    fkthomas Board of Trustee
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    I thought there was for SARS and they were close on MERS. In any event I suppose your point stands that we are several years later and may not have a mERS vaccine.
     
  21. Sean Miller Fan

    Sean Miller Fan Lair Hall of Famer
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    Because they died out on their own rather quickly before a vaccine so funding dried up. Perhaps, this virus will too. Anyone know the difference and why this virus may not?
     
  22. The_Bastard_Of_Benedum

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    I agree completely and woudl add
    4. THere will be more medical supplies of all kinds available as production switches to make more over the next month
     
  23. Sean Miller Fan

    Sean Miller Fan Lair Hall of Famer
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    FWIW, I don't really agree these will be big factors though I hope you are right.
     
  24. fkthomas

    fkthomas Board of Trustee
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    I just want someone to explain to me why a Dallas, or a St Louis, or an Atlanta won’t be a potential NYC in the Fall.
     
  25. NCPitt

    NCPitt Lair Hall of Famer
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    Because their mayors and public health directors won't be inviting people to party in the streets and go to movies in the middle of an epidemic?
     
  26. NTOP

    NTOP Lair Hall of Famer
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    Models are OFTEN way off. Like stock market predictions. Fear muddles a weak mind.
     

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