Cannot understate the importance of these next 3 games

[Sean Miller Fan]

2-1 = NCAA Tournament
1-2 = Squarely on the bubble
0-3 = NIT

Just dont have enough opportunities in the ACC. If we lose all 3, we'd probably have to go at least 2-1 vs Duke/UNC and 2 of those games are on the road.

These next 3 games mean just about everything. This is late February/March conference basketball right now.

 

[Pitt666]

2-1 = NCAA Tournament
1-2 = Squarely on the bubble
0-3 = NIT

Just dont have enough opportunities in the ACC. If we lose all 3, we'd probably have to go at least 2-1 vs Duke/UNC and 2 of those games are on the road.

These next 3 games mean just about everything. This is late February/March conference basketball right now.

Pitt is presently favored in 17/20 conference games per Torvik. Avoid losses like years ago to mizz, ND, etc and then are squarely in. Baring injury, the metrics will be solid this year.

 

[DT_PITT]

2-1 = NCAA Tournament
1-2 = Squarely on the bubble
0-3 = NIT

Just dont have enough opportunities in the ACC. If we lose all 3, we'd probably have to go at least 2-1 vs Duke/UNC and 2 of those games are on the road.

These next 3 games mean just about everything. This is late February/March conference basketball right now.

Stop. Please just stop.

 

[Ski11585]

Stop. Please just stop.

Was coming to say just this.

 

[Pitt666]

It would be much more accurate as well to post this next game is crucial for Pitt getting ranked. Win tomorrow and they likely get ranked at 7-0. 6-1 will not get them ranked on Monday. That is much more of a certainty.

 

[NCanton Panther]

It would be much more accurate as well to post this next game is crucial for Pitt getting ranked. Win tomorrow and they likely get ranked at 7-0. 6-1 will not get them ranked on Monday. That is much more of a certainty.

I can guess the comebacks but I’ll say it anyway, being ranked in NCAAB at this point in the season means zero.

 

[Tvax1]

when early season losses did what they did to derail the very strong Pitt finish then I'd say you don't recognize how much early matters

more this year if the ACC is in fact weak as it appears might actually be true instead of just SEC/B1G money talking(B12 was and probably is legit)

 

[TD_6082]

2-1 = NCAA Tournament
1-2 = Squarely on the bubble
0-3 = NIT

Just dont have enough opportunities in the ACC. If we lose all 3, we'd probably have to go at least 2-1 vs Duke/UNC and 2 of those games are on the road.

These next 3 games mean just about everything. This is late February/March conference basketball right now.

😂

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

when early season losses did what they did to derail the very strong Pitt finish then I'd say you don't recognize how much early matters

When one of your early season losses is to a team that went 0 for the SEC in a home game that's a little different than losing to a good team at a neutral site or on the road.

Surely you recognize that.

 

[Tvax1]

When one of your early season losses is to a team that went 0 for the SEC in a home game that's a little different than losing to a good team at a neutral site or on the road.

Surely you recognize that.

well, guess Pitt shoulda played better against that 0 fer team and tomorrow is not a big deal

may regret that if the ACC is as bad as advertised anyway

maybe you didn't recognize that was the other important part of my reply surely

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

well, guess Pitt shoulda played better against that 0 fer team and tomorrow is not a big deal

may regret that if the ACC is as bad as advertised anyway

maybe you didn't recognize that was the other important part of my reply surely

If Pitt beat Missouri last year the way that they should have and everything else worked out exactly the same that almost certainly would have been enough.

Tomorrow is a big deal because it's an opportunity to impress, not because a loss is going to be harmful. Those are two different scenarios.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

If Pitt beat Missouri last year the way that they should have and everything else worked out exactly the same that almost certainly would have been enough.

Tomorrow is a big deal because it's an opportunity to impress, not because a loss is going to be harmful. Those are two different scenarios.

A bad loss at home in November shouldn’t keep a team out of the tournament. I’ll die on that hill.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

A bad loss at home in November shouldn’t keep a team out of the tournament. I’ll die on that hill.

The problem is that when you on the bubble that one can be the difference.

If you don't want that one bad home loss to make a difference, don't lose to a bad team at home. Or win enough of the other ones that it doesn't keep you out of the tournament.

 

[joeydavid]

2-1 = NCAA Tournament
1-2 = Squarely on the bubble
0-3 = NIT

Just dont have enough opportunities in the ACC. If we lose all 3, we'd probably have to go at least 2-1 vs Duke/UNC and 2 of those games are on the road.

These next 3 games mean just about everything. This is late February/March conference basketball right now.

 

[Tvax1]

A bad loss at home in November shouldn’t keep a team out of the tournament. I’ll die on that hill.

according to some/one since we probably don't do that this year with upcoming away games, we're good

no issue the ACC is actually weak and even in good years, Jan and Feb stumbles could happen

 

[NCanton Panther]

A bad loss at home in November shouldn’t keep a team out of the tournament. I’ll die on that hill.

That was more than just a bad loss. And yeah, you’re right that an early November loss shouldn’t be given that much weight but the unfortunate reality is that when you’re comparing a number of very similar resumes at the end of the year, things like that end up having more weight than they should.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

according to some/one since we probably don't do that this year with upcoming away games, we're good

That isn't what I said, but if you really don't understand the difference between a home loss to the worst P6 team and losing a neutral site or road game against a team that is likely to make the tournament I don't know what to say. They are so obviously different scenarios that I wouldn't think you'd have to explain it to someone, unless they pay no attention at all to college basketball in general.

 

[Pitt666]

I can guess the comebacks but I’ll say it anyway, being ranked in NCAAB at this point in the season means zero.

I agree. But I do think it’s easier to move down than up. The longer they stay unbeaten the more likely to get a top 6 seed.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Stop. Please just stop.

I am really good at this. Last year, I said if they lost that Dec home game to Clemson, they wouldn’t make the NCAAT because there weren't enough ACC at-bats. I was right. If we lose the next 3, there's no chance of making the NCAAT unless we go 15-5 in the ACC.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I am really good at this.

You may literally be the only person in the whole world who believes this.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

When one of your early season losses is to a team that went 0 for the SEC in a home game that's a little different than losing to a good team at a neutral site or on the road.

Surely you recognize that.

Missouri was a Q3 loss. The loss kept us out but so did any other random loss. Had we won 1 more game, we would have made it.

My point is that we cant count on WVU & LSU to be good. Chances are good they both wont be. So if we go 0 for the non-con in terms of getting a quality win, we only have those 3 games with Duke/UNC + 1 each with Wake and Clemson. That's just not enough opportunities.

 

[TD_6082]

I am really good at this. Last year, I said if they lost that Dec home game to Clemson, they wouldn’t make the NCAAT because there weren't enough ACC at-bats. I was right. If we lose the next 3, there's no chance of making the NCAAT unless we go 15-5 in the ACC.

Yes there were plenty of "at bats"

It hurts when you get swept by Syracuse, and lose to Miami.

They were able to still play their way on the bubble & a freaky outcomes happened in the conference tournaments. Pitt's NCAAT gate wasn't sealed last December.

 

[Tvax1]

That isn't what I said, but if you really don't understand the difference between a home loss to the worst P6 team and losing a neutral site or road game against a team that is likely to make the tournament I don't know what to say. They are so obviously different scenarios that I wouldn't think you'd have to explain it to someone, unless they pay no attention at all to college basketball in general.

I'd explain how what I post is applicable but not sure you'd get it

it's about not KNOWING what is about to play out in THIS preseason OOC and then this regular season with any of the games ahead

I realize YOU aren't wrong about your point that it is different tomorrow but the fact that we may yet get a bad OOC loss is still possible and also the fact that the ACC looks legitimately weak AND that we may not have the very good ACC season that right now looks likely to at least have Pitt end up 3rd or worst 4th in the ACC

that's enough reason to "need" a win tomorrow so that Pitt actually builds their "leave no doubt" season

fair?

 

[Tvax1]

Missouri was a Q3 loss. The loss kept us out but so did any other random loss. Had we won 1 more game, we would have made it.

My point is that we cant count on WVU & LSU to be good. Chances are good they both wont be. So if we go 0 for the non-con in terms of getting a quality win, we only have those 3 games with Duke/UNC + 1 each with Wake and Clemson. That's just not enough opportunities.

I don't have much experience on the Lair but I think you have this concept just about right but Joetpf seems to KNOW the future like nobody else

you are offering reasonable scenarios as to why these games matter because of what is yet to play out, Joe is either not getting that or ignoring that potential which early wins can help to avoid

so I lean to weighing tomorrow as rather important even if different than last year's early losses

 

[Pitt666]

I am really good at this. Last year, I said if they lost that Dec home game to Clemson, they wouldn’t make the NCAAT because there weren't enough ACC at-bats. I was right. If we lose the next 3, there's no chance of making the NCAAT unless we go 15-5 in the ACC.

It wasn’t about lack of wins, it was wins against cupcakes and weak NCSOS. 7 Q4 last year and 10 Q4 wins two years ago. Only 5 this year on tap.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Missouri was a Q3 loss. The loss kept us out but so did any other random loss. Had we won 1 more game, we would have made it.

My point is that we cant count on WVU & LSU to be good. Chances are good they both wont be. So if we go 0 for the non-con in terms of getting a quality win, we only have those 3 games with Duke/UNC + 1 each with Wake and Clemson. That's just not enough opportunities.

We almost certainly already have 3 better wins OOC than we had last season. There aren’t many teams in the country with 3 top 100 wins right now. It’s why we are higher in the computers than we ever were last year. And we are going to play significant less Q4 games this year which will also help.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Missouri was a Q3 loss. The loss kept us out but so did any other random loss. Had we won 1 more game, we would have made it.

My point is that we cant count on WVU & LSU to be good. Chances are good they both wont be. So if we go 0 for the non-con in terms of getting a quality win, we only have those 3 games with Duke/UNC + 1 each with Wake and Clemson. That's just not enough opportunities.

LSU already has a win over a NCAA quality Big 12 team on the road. I don’t know why people think they stink - they don’t lol.

 

[Wanstash21]

I am really good at this. Last year, I said if they lost that Dec home game to Clemson, they wouldn’t make the NCAAT because there weren't enough ACC at-bats. I was right. If we lose the next 3, there's no chance of making the NCAAT unless we go 15-5 in the ACC.

If they don’t lose to Mizzou they are in last year. Not even a question

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If they don’t lose to Mizzou they are in last year. Not even a question

Obviously so.

But that doesn't fit SMF's narrative, so....

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt is presently favored in 17/20 conference games per Torvik. Avoid losses like years ago to mizz, ND, etc and then are squarely in. Baring injury, the metrics will be solid this year.

If Pitt goes 17-3 in the ACC, then sure, we can lose 4 OOC games and get in. But we arent going 17-3. Its very likely we go 0-3 vs Duke/UNC. Split Wake/Clem and that's 4 losses. So that means we need to go 12-3 vs the non-NCAAT ACC teams. That's doable but not easy. There's just not a lot of margin for error if we dont win 2 of these next 3.

 

[whirlybird optio]

If Pitt goes 17-3 in the ACC, then sure, we can lose 4 OOC games and get in. But we arent going 17-3. Its very likely we go 0-3 vs Duke/UNC. Split Wake/Clem and that's 4 losses. So that means we need to go 12-3 vs the non-NCAAT ACC teams. That's doable but not easy. There's just not a lot of margin for error if we dont win 2 of these next 3.

I mean, per your logic, the ACC is going to get two teams in the tournament. Because there is a massive gap between Pitt and the next best ACC team per the computers.

1) even if we lose the three games (which we won’t) we still have three better wins than last season.

2) our computer profile will be better.

3) Last years team makes the field, even with all of the early losses and lack of quality wins so long as they beat Mizzou.

4) There were a historic amount of bid stealers last season.

5) The ACC is going to get at least 4, probably 5 teams (including Dayton). I’d be more worried if the other teams in the league were doing anything, but they aren’t. By your logic every team not named Duke or UNC has already played themselves out.

 

[Tvax1]

I think the logic points to the usual top 2 plus 1 so 3 total bids very possible and Pitt needs to put themselves into the position to lock up that #3

the ACC got in 5 last year and NC St wouldn't have of course without the ACC tourney win and if Pitt legit didn't deserve to get in then imo UVA didn't either

so that's last year's ACC treatment in March with a better2023 OOC than this year's so far

 

[whirlybird optio]

I think the logic points to the usual top 2 plus 1 so 3 total bids very possible and Pitt needs to put themselves into the position to lock up that #3

the ACC got in 5 last year and NC St wouldn't have of course without the ACC tourney win and if Pitt legit didn't deserve to get in then imo UVA didn't either

so that's last year's ACC treatment in March with a better2023 OOC than this year's so far

I think they get a minimum of 4, possibly 5.

The computer numbers for Clemson, NC St and UL aren’t bad. That seems like the next tier of teams. Maybe 2 of them find a way to get in.

And Wake will get better.

 

[Tvax1]

I think they get a minimum of 4, possibly 5.

The computer numbers for Clemson, NC St and UL aren’t bad. That seems like the next tier of teams. Maybe 2 of them find a way to get in.

And Wake will get better.

I know little about Louisville so got to see them more to think they could've improved vastly but of course it's quite possible

what I know is it's too early for some here to dismiss the huge need to have big OOC wins for ACC teams to bolster the conference for bids #4 to #7 and put Pitt squarely into the mix even assuming a couple ACC slip ups

LSU win was potentially a big one that hopefully remains that way, Wiscy or Miss St or tOSU getting 2 of 3 puts a very nice buffer in place while 0 fer establishes legit doubt and this ACC seems headed to that doubt pool

MWC got in how many last year while ACC gets in the season earned 4 plus NC St? 6

 

[Baddest Cat]

I would say today's game is probably the biggest in the history of the program. Lives are on the line.

 

[SteelBowl70]

 

[whirlybird optio]

I know little about Louisville so got to see them more to think they could've improved vastly but of course it's quite possible

what I know is it's too early for some here to dismiss the huge need to have big OOC wins for ACC teams to bolster the conference for bids #4 to #7 and put Pitt squarely into the mix even assuming a couple ACC slip ups

LSU win was potentially a big one that hopefully remains that way, Wiscy or Miss St or tOSU getting 2 of 3 puts a very nice buffer in place while 0 fer establishes legit doubt and this ACC seems headed to that doubt pool

MWC got in how many last year while ACC gets in the season earned 4 plus NC St? 6

I don’t disagree with that, but they have to get to 68 teams. Pitt is in great shape right now, already way better than last season. Just need to keep stacking wins.

I said before Greenbrier the goal was to split here at worst, and then split Miss St and Ohio St.

That would be 2 OOC losses and would put us in prime position to where even a halfway decent ACC record gets us in.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think they get a minimum of 4, possibly 5.

The computer numbers for Clemson, NC St and UL aren’t bad. That seems like the next tier of teams. Maybe 2 of them find a way to get in.

And Wake will get better.

Wake has NCAAT talent but they always mess up. Clemson makes it I think. NC St hasnt lost but hasnt played anyone. Its a new team so hard to say what they'll be like.

I think Pitt can be ACC #3 but the league may only get 4.

 

[PittPanther44]

If there is any consistency, “playing well” is almost as important as winning. Isn’t that how these 13 loss teams seem to get ranked above us?

 

[Tvax1]

If there is any consistency, “playing well” is almost as important as winning. Isn’t that how these 13 loss teams seem to get ranked above us?

I think it is conference strength real or perceived or promoted by media bias

B1G, SEC

Miss St, A&M 13 and 14 loss teams
Wiscy, NW, MichST 13, 11 and 14 losses

what sucked was previous years stated emphasis on last 10 games or at least how the teams were playing later in the season