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Capel II

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
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After the loss to Butler, I always considered those last 5-6 Dixon years as Dixon II since they were vastly different from the first 9 or so. I am beginning to think, we may have a Capel II coming. After a disappointing first 4 years, he has surprised all of us and has assembled what appears to be a team talented enough to contend for an NCAAT bid.....and that's after coming off 4 bad years and many rumors that this year may be his last. If he does well this year and signs the Top 100s he has committed for next year, it seems like Capel II in some bizarro way will be what we basically expected from Capel I. Maybe Dixon in reverse?

We still have to play the games and it remains to be seen if all of these talented pieces can form a cohesive team but we have a chance. We have a McDish PG coming in and will have 3 6th year seniors at guard along with 5th year senior Burton, one of the best bigs in the nation, a double digit SEC scorer, and some intriguing new players (Diaz twins, Federiko). Dare I say from a "pieces" standpoint, this is the deepest team we've had since Dixon I. Case in point: we all forgot about Cashius McNeilly and Fede Federiko. They appear to be perhaps the 12th and 13th men but McNeilly shot 44% from 3 in JUCO and was formerly on Texas A&M's roster and Federiko previously committed to the 🐐 Bob Huggins. Capel has gone from not having enough major D1 players to having so many that he may not be able to keep them all happy.

I haven't been this excited for Pitt basketball since Capel was hired....and before that probably not since the Steven Adams season.
 
You can have all the talent on your roster, you still have to be able to coach. This is a real test to see what he does with a solid team. I’m impressed with his recruiting this time but I’ll be more impressed if he can coach them up. He is now coaching to save his job and career. I am really hoping he can turn this around. We need success back on the court.
 
Agree. If he is to succeed he will now have the challenge of adjusting style of play to best suit the roster rather than (as Pitt fans have viewed as poor coaching) fitting the roster to a preferred style of play. The opportunity is there.
 
You can have all the talent on your roster, you still have to be able to coach. This is a real test to see what he does with a solid team. I’m impressed with his recruiting this time but I’ll be more impressed if he can coach them up. He is now coaching to save his job and career. I am really hoping he can turn this around. We need success back on the court.
Agreed. Coaching will play a major role because its not like we have Duke talent. We have First Four Dayton talent, maybe a little better. But a lot of teams have that. Coaching, getting the guys to play as a team will determine how we do.
 
You can have all the talent on your roster, you still have to be able to coach. This is a real test to see what he does with a solid team. I’m impressed with his recruiting this time but I’ll be more impressed if he can coach them up. He is now coaching to save his job and career. I am really hoping he can turn this around. We need success back on the court.

The same stuff Capel runs at Pitt is what is run at Duke. It seems to runs better at Duke for some reason 🙄.
 
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The same stuff Capel runs at Pitt is what is run at Duke. It seems to runs better at Duke for some reason 🙄.
But that’s the problem. You have to be smart enough as a coach to realize the Duke system isn’t going to work at Pitt because the talent is as good. Capel needs to do some things differently to maximize the talent he has on this roster.
 
But that’s the problem. You have to be smart enough as a coach to realize the Duke system isn’t going to work at Pitt because the talent is as good. Capel needs to do some things differently to maximize the talent he has on this roster.
To an extent, yes, but a lot of teams not as good as Duke, run Duke-type stuff. There isn't a magical system that can make Pitt's talent into an elite team. I mean, ok, if you had the ability to go like 100% defensive like UVa, Wisky, Dixon I, ok, but few coaches out there can do that. At the end of the day, Pitt's players have to play together, make shots, rebound, and play defense. The system itself only plays a minor role.
 
Yeah, I don’t really remember there being too many complaints with what we were running in 2020-21 - things were looking pretty solid until the guys started banging each other’s girlfriends and the bottom fell out. The roster just wasn’t good enough last year from the jump, and especially not after Horton’s vehicular indiscretion and Sibande’s injury. The offense really didn’t look too bad, either - the shots were there, we just didn’t make them. The team just wasn’t good enough, suffered the consequences of having three guards in non-conference play, they had a dead cat bounce once Horton came back, and then ran out of steam because they still weren’t ultimately good enough to compete in this league.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - the combination of roster management, locker room issues, and unexpected circumstances have been a significantly larger impediment than anything with X’s and O’s. No doubt that those things still ultimately fall on Capel (even with unexpected circumstances like injuries or disciplinary stuff, you’ve gotta have the roster in a place where it’s not as fatal as it has been).
 
To an extent, yes, but a lot of teams not as good as Duke, run Duke-type stuff. There isn't a magical system that can make Pitt's talent into an elite team. I mean, ok, if you had the ability to go like 100% defensive like UVa, Wisky, Dixon I, ok, but few coaches out there can do that. At the end of the day, Pitt's players have to play together, make shots, rebound, and play defense. The system itself only plays a minor role.
Yes - you need to have talent, but a good coach uses a system that maximizes the talent on his team. Capel’s coaching will be the difference between going .500 or making a tournament this year. Not losing to an inferior team in the non conference and winning more toss up games than not.
 
I really don't think he likes it here. I don't think this is going to be a long-term thing, one way or the other.

Assuming the buyout really does drop significantly after this season, I could see him making a lateral move after this year or next if he experiences any modicum of success.
 
I really don't think he likes it here. I don't think this is going to be a long-term thing, one way or the other.

Assuming the buyout really does drop significantly after this season, I could see him making a lateral move after this year or next if he experiences any modicum of success.

I think you're right. He's not going to be here for long, one way or another. I still have my doubts about whether he can even coach this team to an above 0.500 overall record let alone get an NIT bid. He hasn't done it yet and I don't know if he knows how to do it. Time will tell.

Thinking about it, I don't see him being very visible in the community, in community promotions, or in the media. We see him with his social justice stuff in social media and pushing that, but nothing with him being a visible coach of this city's university. That telling. He's just not interested in being a part of Pittsburgh or the community.
 
After the loss to Butler, I always considered those last 5-6 Dixon years as Dixon II since they were vastly different from the first 9 or so. I am beginning to think, we may have a Capel II coming. After a disappointing first 4 years, he has surprised all of us and has assembled what appears to be a team talented enough to contend for an NCAAT bid.....and that's after coming off 4 bad years and many rumors that this year may be his last. If he does well this year and signs the Top 100s he has committed for next year, it seems like Capel II in some bizarro way will be what we basically expected from Capel I. Maybe Dixon in reverse?

We still have to play the games and it remains to be seen if all of these talented pieces can form a cohesive team but we have a chance. We have a McDish PG coming in and will have 3 6th year seniors at guard along with 5th year senior Burton, one of the best bigs in the nation, a double digit SEC scorer, and some intriguing new players (Diaz twins, Federiko). Dare I say from a "pieces" standpoint, this is the deepest team we've had since Dixon I. Case in point: we all forgot about Cashius McNeilly and Fede Federiko. They appear to be perhaps the 12th and 13th men but McNeilly shot 44% from 3 in JUCO and was formerly on Texas A&M's roster and Federiko previously committed to the 🐐 Bob Huggins. Capel has gone from not having enough major D1 players to having so many that he may not be able to keep them all happy.

I haven't been this excited for Pitt basketball since Capel was hired....and before that probably not since the Steven Adams season.

Its easily the deepest team in a long while. And if Jamie Dixon was coaching this team of players the expectation would be to absolutely make the NCAA Tournament.

Case in point.

Greg Elliot- Career ORTG offensive power rating of 113. 2 NCAA Tournament appearances, 41% career 3 point shooter, 82% career Foul Shooter, has proven the ability to light up and take over games against highly ranked team like UCLA, Villanova, Xavier, Uconn, etc.. This is a depth player for us that gives depth scoring punch that has been non existent since Capel has been here. This is the type of depth player that would of played on the early 2000 Pitt teams. A pure shooter that has proven 4 years in a row in the Big East he can actually consistently shoot against bad teams and against Elite Final 4 contenders.

Nike Sibande coming off the bench. Now Sibande is coming off an ACL injury, but prior to the injury he was miles better than Jeffress or Santos the last 2 years and has proven the ability to score against ACC teams. Career ORTG of 99, good enough for a rotational piece on an NCAA Tournament team.

We have the guards and wing talent and Hugley that is more than talented enough to make an NCAA Tournament as long as no one gets injured or gets charged with a Felony again.

There are options at the 4 position-Twins, Hinson, Jeffress, even Santos, someone out of these 5 just needs to come in and play and not be Terrell Brown on the floor and get the rest of the team killed when in the game. Personally, I think its going to be Hinson and the twins.

Unless Dior Johnson is a full complete bust his first year at point guard.....If Capel cant compete with this current roster, he has to go regardless of who he signs in 2023. Jamie Dixon would absolutely win games with this roster, probably at least 10 ACC games.
 
Its easily the deepest team in a long while. And if Jamie Dixon was coaching this team of players the expectation would be to absolutely make the NCAA Tournament.

Case in point.

Greg Elliot- Career ORTG offensive power rating of 113. 2 NCAA Tournament appearances, 41% career 3 point shooter, 82% career Foul Shooter, has proven the ability to light up and take over games against highly ranked team like UCLA, Villanova, Xavier, Uconn, etc.. This is a depth player for us that gives depth scoring punch that has been non existent since Capel has been here. This is the type of depth player that would of played on the early 2000 Pitt teams. A pure shooter that has proven 4 years in a row in the Big East he can actually consistently shoot against bad teams and against Elite Final 4 contenders.

Nike Sibande coming off the bench. Now Sibande is coming off an ACL injury, but prior to the injury he was miles better than Jeffress or Santos the last 2 years and has proven the ability to score against ACC teams. Career ORTG of 99, good enough for a rotational piece on an NCAA Tournament team.

We have the guards and wing talent and Hugley that is more than talented enough to make an NCAA Tournament as long as no one gets injured or gets charged with a Felony again.

There are options at the 4 position-Twins, Hinson, Jeffress, even Santos, someone out of these 5 just needs to come in and play and not be Terrell Brown on the floor and get the rest of the team killed when in the game. Personally, I think its going to be Hinson and the twins.

Unless Dior Johnson is a full complete bust his first year at point guard.....If Capel cant compete with this current roster, he has to go regardless of who he signs in 2023. Jamie Dixon would absolutely win games with this roster, probably at least 10 ACC games.

Dude, please stop it. You make apprentice weathermen look like the Oracles of Delphi.
 
Dude, please stop it. You make weathermen look like oracles.

Career ORTG numbers

Johnson-4 Star Top 40 guard, Jordan Classic high school All American
Burton-100 ORTG
Sibande-99 ORTG
Hinson-101 ORTG
Cummings-105 ORTG
Elliot-113 ORTG
Hugley- 100 ORTG

That's 6 players assuming zero improvement with an ORTG at 100 or over plus a high school all american. Cummings is over 110 when off the ball with a usage rate under 20 which is where he will be this year at Pitt.

We need Dior Johnson to deliver and 1 other player to step up and we are right in line offensively to be good enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. A number of bubble teams can compete for a bid with just 6 players 100+ ORTG assuming no major black holes like Terrell Brown or the following below.


We are no longer using the following players at starters and in our offense.

Ezeakudo-90
Santos-84
Jeffress-82
 
Career ORTG numbers

Johnson-4 Star Top 40 guard, Jordan Classic high school All American
Burton-100 ORTG
Sibande-99 ORTG
Hinson-101 ORTG
Cummings-105 ORTG
Elliot-113 ORTG
Hugley- 100 ORTG

That's 6 players assuming zero improvement with an ORTG at 100 or over plus a high school all american. Cummings is over 110 when off the ball with a usage rate under 20 which is where he will be this year at Pitt.

We need Dior Johnson to deliver and 1 other player to step up and we are right in line offensively to be good enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. A number of bubble teams can compete for a bid with just 6 players 100+ ORTG assuming no major black holes like Terrell Brown or the following below.


We are no longer using the following players at starters and in our offense.

Ezeakudo-90
Santos-84
Jeffress-82

Also Pitt won 6 ACC games last year with these poor depth pieces. And if it wasnt for a complete meltdown against Virginia in the final minute of the game, it would have been 7. I also think the ACC will be down against next year. Some of the teams going into next year in the ACC are going to be downright bad.
 
Also Pitt won 6 ACC games last year with these poor depth pieces. And if it wasnt for a complete meltdown against Virginia in the final minute of the game, it would have been 7. I also think the ACC will be down against next year. Some of the teams going into next year in the ACC are going to be downright bad.

2021 Miami seems like fair upside comparison.

What's your thoughts on the defensive end for Pitt? I'm less optimistic there.
 
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Yes - you need to have talent, but a good coach uses a system that maximizes the talent on his team. Capel’s coaching will be the difference between going .500 or making a tournament this year. Not losing to an inferior team in the non conference and winning more toss up games than not.
Everyone loses to an inferior team in the non-con so I wouldn't go by that
 
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After the loss to Butler, I always considered those last 5-6 Dixon years as Dixon II since they were vastly different from the first 9 or so. I am beginning to think, we may have a Capel II coming. After a disappointing first 4 years, he has surprised all of us and has assembled what appears to be a team talented enough to contend for an NCAAT bid.....and that's after coming off 4 bad years and many rumors that this year may be his last. If he does well this year and signs the Top 100s he has committed for next year, it seems like Capel II in some bizarro way will be what we basically expected from Capel I. Maybe Dixon in reverse?

We still have to play the games and it remains to be seen if all of these talented pieces can form a cohesive team but we have a chance. We have a McDish PG coming in and will have 3 6th year seniors at guard along with 5th year senior Burton, one of the best bigs in the nation, a double digit SEC scorer, and some intriguing new players (Diaz twins, Federiko). Dare I say from a "pieces" standpoint, this is the deepest team we've had since Dixon I. Case in point: we all forgot about Cashius McNeilly and Fede Federiko. They appear to be perhaps the 12th and 13th men but McNeilly shot 44% from 3 in JUCO and was formerly on Texas A&M's roster and Federiko previously committed to the 🐐 Bob Huggins. Capel has gone from not having enough major D1 players to having so many that he may not be able to keep them all happy.

I haven't been this excited for Pitt basketball since Capel was hired....and before that probably not since the Steven Adams season.
I’m on board - thinking something similar.

obviously have to win - but there’s no doubt there’s a feeling of ‘do over ‘ with the program right now. The miracle of landing Johnson has completely changed the feeling and trajectory.

I’m legitimately excited - and I was among the many who had zero faith at the end of last season.
 
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I really don't think he likes it here. I don't think this is going to be a long-term thing, one way or the other.

Assuming the buyout really does drop significantly after this season, I could see him making a lateral move after this year or next if he experiences any modicum of success.
I sort of agree that if he makes the NCAAT, he may take an A10 or AAC job or something like that. I cant see him getting a lateral job unless he has a big-time year.
 
2021 Miami seems like fair upside comparison.

What's your thoughts on the defensive end for Pitt? I'm less optimistic there.

I think on defense we have more options. More depth allows more options to press, to trap, to double team, to be more aggressive in the passing lanes overall and change things up throughout the game even when we are behind trying to play catch up. Finally having some actual guard and wing depth isn't a death sentence for our team like it has been if someone gets into foul trouble because we will have capable reserves that can produce.

The two guys Im most intrigued about are the twins. These 2 have the potential to take us up another level depending on how quickly they adapt to things. Their overall potential is big.


My biggest area of concern is rebounding by far. I think for this current roster to be successful because we are going to be small, we are going to need to gang rebound on defense and get our transition game going again. Our transition offense was non existent last year and under Xavier Johnson was a train wreck more times than not because of all the turnovers.

Dior Johnson is going to push the fast break and get our transition game going, he loves the fast break and we have the guard and wing talent that can thrive with him. But we need to effectively rebound to be able to do that. And if we cant rebound well, the only other option is to force turnovers by cranking up defensive pressure. Obviously the twins can change some of this because of their size and wingspan shall they be ready to produce. I think they will produce, the bigger question is how much.
 
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I sort of agree that if he makes the NCAAT, he may take an A10 or AAC job or something like that. I cant see him getting a lateral job unless he has a big-time year.
What possible reason would he have to take either a lateral or lower job, if he makes the Tournament? That makes no sense at all.
 
After the loss to Butler, I always considered those last 5-6 Dixon years as Dixon II since they were vastly different from the first 9 or so. I am beginning to think, we may have a Capel II coming. After a disappointing first 4 years, he has surprised all of us and has assembled what appears to be a team talented enough to contend for an NCAAT bid.....and that's after coming off 4 bad years and many rumors that this year may be his last. If he does well this year and signs the Top 100s he has committed for next year, it seems like Capel II in some bizarro way will be what we basically expected from Capel I. Maybe Dixon in reverse?

We still have to play the games and it remains to be seen if all of these talented pieces can form a cohesive team but we have a chance. We have a McDish PG coming in and will have 3 6th year seniors at guard along with 5th year senior Burton, one of the best bigs in the nation, a double digit SEC scorer, and some intriguing new players (Diaz twins, Federiko). Dare I say from a "pieces" standpoint, this is the deepest team we've had since Dixon I. Case in point: we all forgot about Cashius McNeilly and Fede Federiko. They appear to be perhaps the 12th and 13th men but McNeilly shot 44% from 3 in JUCO and was formerly on Texas A&M's roster and Federiko previously committed to the 🐐 Bob Huggins. Capel has gone from not having enough major D1 players to having so many that he may not be able to keep them all happy.

I haven't been this excited for Pitt basketball since Capel was hired....and before that probably not since the Steven Adams season.

If Capel II (as you call it) ends up as "bad" as Dixon II (as you've called it), I will be thrilled.
 
What possible reason would he have to take either a lateral or lower job, if he makes the Tournament? That makes no sense at all.
Yeah, I’m not really following his logic there. Make the tournament as an ACC team so you trade that in to be coach at a lower tier school that has to essentially win their conference to make the ncaa.
 
SMF, I like the idea of Capel II. I like the way the talent is shaping up for this season and I am praying all players stay healthy and out of trouble. Hopefully we have witnessed the end of Capel I. I like what he has going for next year as well, even tho we will likely lose some important pieces. If there is going to be a Capel II it must start this year while we have Hugley and Dior. I am looking forward to this season and really hope in a few years we are discussing some good times that occurred during "Capel II".
 
Yeah, I’m not really following his logic there. Make the tournament as an ACC team so you trade that in to be coach at a lower tier school that has to essentially win their conference to make the ncaa.
It assumes Capel is unhappy here and doesn't like that the fanbase quit on him and that he'd still be 1-2 bad seasons away from being fired so he may prefer to take a step down to work his way back up. Not predicting this would happen, just wouldn't be surprised if it does especially since he is likely to lose most of his contributors off this team and will be starting new again
 
It assumes Capel is unhappy here and doesn't like that the fanbase quit on him and that he'd still be 1-2 bad seasons away from being fired so he may prefer to take a step down to work his way back up. Not predicting this would happen, just wouldn't be surprised if it does especially since he is likely to lose most of his contributors off this team and will be starting new again
Capel is making $3.5 million a year at Pitt, and has yet to come close to having a winning record in 4 seasons. How can he possibly be unhappy to be here - there is nowhere he could be earning that kind of money. And be a head coach in the ACC.
 
Capel is making $3.5 million a year at Pitt, and has yet to come close to having a winning record in 4 seasons. How can he possibly be unhappy to be here - there is nowhere he could be earning that kind of money. And be a head coach in the ACC.
I don't know if he is or not but I would think he gets the sense that Pitt fans quit on him too early.
 
Career ORTG numbers

Johnson-4 Star Top 40 guard, Jordan Classic high school All American
Burton-100 ORTG
Sibande-99 ORTG
Hinson-101 ORTG
Cummings-105 ORTG
Elliot-113 ORTG
Hugley- 100 ORTG

That's 6 players assuming zero improvement with an ORTG at 100 or over plus a high school all american. Cummings is over 110 when off the ball with a usage rate under 20 which is where he will be this year at Pitt.

We need Dior Johnson to deliver and 1 other player to step up and we are right in line offensively to be good enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. A number of bubble teams can compete for a bid with just 6 players 100+ ORTG assuming no major black holes like Terrell Brown or the following below.


We are no longer using the following players at starters and in our offense.

Ezeakudo-90
Santos-84
Jeffress-82
Just need the 4 position to be at least average. Worried about that a lot.
 
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There’s no doubt that there was a philosophical shift in how to recruit at Pitt . I’m sure losing Addison to USC might have opened the right eyes in Oakland . The lesson is pretty simple , in order to compete you must play by the same rules as everyone else . I’m not suggesting Pitt now has the funds to compete against the USC’s of the world , but they’re playing the game now .

NIL has changed everything and a Pitt team that constantly struggled to fill its roster with quality players and that includes the Dixon II era now has it deepest most talented roster in yrs . In the era of the NIL Pitt just might have the right coach in place .

If the twins exceed expectations this team will be downright exciting to watch and even if they don’t this will be an interesting season and none of us expected this a couple of months ago . This means Jeff Capel is going nowhere barring a total collapse of the program , he has young talent to build upon and will have a promising recruiting class signed in Nov . ( not to mention his contract )

Those of you who are adamant that he’s a horrible coach with the worst staff in D1 ball will now get their proof if this team repeats Pitts lack of success . My bet is that this team will show you that he’s a far better coach than you think . He has enough talent , a pg , shooters , bench and a dominating big man . If they can rebound look out . No one wins without talent .

Far cheaper to buy players than Head Coaches !
 
1) Capel has to get these kids he's recruited onto the court and playing. That is not a given. There are no guarantees his recruits will be at Pitt come the beginning of the season.
2) Then Capel has to coach them up and become a good game day coach. He hasn't proven he can do that.

I'm continuing the be optimistic that both of these conditions will be reality and he'll be successful at both, because I'm a Pitt fan. But also being realistic that he could fail...again.
 
1) Capel has to get these kids he's recruited onto the court and playing. That is not a given. There are no guarantees his recruits will be at Pitt come the beginning of the season.
2) Then Capel has to coach them up and become a good game day coach. He hasn't proven he can do that.

I'm continuing the be optimistic that both of these conditions will be reality and he'll be successful at both, because I'm a Pitt fan. But also being realistic that he could fail...again.
I’m not concerned about the roster falling apart it’s June not March and now that he has a roster without any glaring weaknesses we can evaluate how good a coach he is .

JDs worst roster was better than any of JCs , no one could win substantially more games with the talent that was assembled here the last 4 yrs .
 
Still need a 4 or 5. Front court gonna get killed in league play. Hugely fouls, the projected 3s are smallish and there’s no 4.
 
Still need a 4 or 5. Front court gonna get killed in league play. Hugely fouls, the projected 3s are smallish and there’s no 4.
There's no 4 but there's 4 players to play the 4. So i believe they'll find the right combo to get productivity there
 
Yeah, there were plenty of ACC teams that won a bunch of games last year with guys at the 4 who have the length that Hinson and Jeffress have. Jaylen Gardner at Virginia, Justyn Mutts at Virginia Tech, Isaiah Mucius at Wake Forest, Jordan Miller at Miami, all had really nice years playing the 4 at 6’7-6’8.
 
Fans have memory loss of the past when you win. They also become forgiving when you win. Get to the NCAA tournament next year and have a team that looks like they are being well coached, fans have different tune.
Truf

well the majority do
Some will hang onto very outdated opinions for years to say “i told you so!”
See - Edmunds, Terrell
 
Fans have memory loss of the past when you win. They also become forgiving when you win. Get to the NCAA tournament next year and have a team that looks like they are being well coached, fans have different tune.
Yeah - I mean there was a growing rumble to get rid of Duzz 2 years ago —

Capel is one of the highest paid coaches in the ACC— I would hope he realizes fans expect results after 5 years .
 
Yeah - I mean there was a growing rumble to get rid of Duzz 2 years ago —

Capel is one of the highest paid coaches in the ACC— I would hope he realizes fans expect results after 5 years .

Yes, it's time for Capel to show results. I think everyone has a different idea of what "results" means. For me, it's 20 wins minimum and nothing less than an NIT invite, preferably NCAAT. 5 years is enough time for him to be able to get these results. If he can do that, he gets to stay another year. Take it year by year.
 
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