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CFP is fascinating

Duneaux Harm

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Nov 30, 2020
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Yeah I am sure odd things could still happen but unlikely.

TCU seems almost a lock to get in at this point. I suppose they could lose but it doesn’t seem likely.

Georgia is a virtual lock even if they lost in the SEC Championship game. If Georgia does not win the SEC Championship there would be some interesting Debate about taking the SEC Championship game winner over a one loss Tennessee team.

The Big Ten could have two teams in the CFP, but only if Michigan wins a close one against OSU thereby allowing OSU not to fall out. if OSU wins then Michigan has zero chance in my opinion.

My final predictions are:

Georgia
OSU
Tennessee
TCU
 
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Yeah I am sure odd things could still happen but unlikely.

TCU seems almost a lock to get in at this point. I suppose they could lose but it doesn’t seem likely.

Georgia is a virtual lock even if they lost in the SEC Championship game. If Georgia does not win the SEC Championship there would be some interesting Debate about taking the SEC Championship game winner over a one loss Tennessee team.

The Big Ten could have two teams in the CFP, but only if Michigan wins a close one against OSU thereby allowing OSU not to fall out. if OSU wins then Michigan has zero chance in my opinion.

My final predictions are:

Georgia
OSU
Tennessee
TCU
I think there's a decent chance that TCU loses this weekend to Texas. They have rallied in a lot of games, but this will be there toughest test. Look for Oregon to eventually be the fourth team.
 
If TCU loses one game, they are out. And I think it's likely they lose one .

If Georgia finishes 12-0 and loses the SEC Championship game, they are likely in. If they lost to LSU then what would that mean for a two loss LSU team compared to a 11-1 Big Ten OSU or Michigan? This is why 4 teams isn't enough.

I suspect that Tennessee will lose one more. They barely beat Pitt and they have been riding the adrenaline wave to this point.

My prediction is Georgia continues to run the table and grand the #1 spot. Michigan finishes 12-0 and wins the Big Ten Championship to grab the #2 spot.

The Pac 12 has a four way tournament of sorts, between USC, UCLA, Oregon and Utah. USC vs. UCLA winner will play the Oregon vs. Utah winner for the #3 or #4 spot.

That leaves voter darling OSU grabbing the 4th spot.

#1 Georgia vs. #4 OSU
#2 Michigan vs. #3 USC/Oregon
 
Tennessee is in a really nice spot right now. Win three easy games, and they're in. Don't even have to absorb a physical SEC Championship game where they could sustain injuries.

Winner of OSU/Michigan is in. I don't know that the loser is in, though. Neither have really beaten many good teams.

I still think TCU will lose twice. They are 2017 Miami, winning a bunch of close games they could have easily lost. I would think that will catch up to them. They're good, but they're not 13-0 good.

I think we could be looking at:

1) Georgia
2) OSU/Michigan winner
3) Tennessee
4) One loss PAC 12 champ

If USC and Oregon both win out the next three weeks, the winner of that championship game is in. Oregon still has to beat a pretty good Oregon State team, a pretty good Washington team, and a good Utah team. USC has to beat a good UCLA team and a good Notre Dame team. So if either of them run the table, they're in.

It starts to get murky if one of those PAC 12 teams doesn't run the table. That would open the door for a 1-loss TCU team (if they only lose one AND win the Big 12), Clemson if they run the table (they might need UNC to do the same so that win looks better), the loser of OSU/Michigan, etc. I can't go so far as to include LSU. They've beat two good teams all season.
 
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It's a shame that brand name, TV ratings, etc still play a role in this. I guess an expanded playoff will help with some of that if all (major) conference champions get in. But looking at Clemson, I don't argue with anyone that says their schedule is soft, they have flaws as a team, etc. But then why doesn't that same logic apply to say Michigan? If Michigan is 11-1 with the loss to Ohio St, then they will have no wins of consequence. Will they drop to #10 if the lose to OSU? Similar with USC and others.
 
Tennessee is in a really nice spot right now. Win three easy games, and they're in. Don't even have to absorb a physical SEC Championship game where they could sustain injuries.

Winner of OSU/Michigan is in. I don't know that the loser is in, though. Neither have really beaten many good teams.

I still think TCU will lose twice. They are 2017 Miami, winning a bunch of close games they could have easily lost. I would think that will catch up to them. They're good, but they're not 13-0 good.

I think we could be looking at:

1) Georgia
2) OSU/Michigan winner
3) Tennessee
4) One loss PAC 12 champ

If USC and Oregon both win out the next three weeks, the winner of that championship game is in. Oregon still has to beat a pretty good Oregon State team, a pretty good Washington team, and a good Utah team. USC has to beat a good UCLA team and a good Notre Dame team. So if either of them run the table, they're in.

It starts to get murky if one of those PAC 12 teams doesn't run the table. That would open the door for a 1-loss TCU team (if they only lose one AND win the Big 12), Clemson if they run the table (they might need UNC to do the same so that win looks better), the loser of OSU/Michigan, etc. I can't go so far as to include LSU. They've beat two good teams all season.
I wouldn't mind that Final 4. Be nice to see a Pac 12 team.
 
It's a shame that brand name, TV ratings, etc still play a role in this. I guess an expanded playoff will help with some of that if all (major) conference champions get in. But looking at Clemson, I don't argue with anyone that says their schedule is soft, they have flaws as a team, etc. But then why doesn't that same logic apply to say Michigan? If Michigan is 11-1 with the loss to Ohio St, then they will have no wins of consequence. Will they drop to #10 if the lose to OSU? Similar with USC and others.

You're not wrong in theory, but I think part of it has to do with the fact that Michigan has manhandled all but one opponent, and Clemson has kept some games a little closer and then got manhandled themselves. So if Michigan loses a close game to a team that beat the team that manhandled Clemson, I would see the logic in not dropping them quite as far.
 
There's probably a war room set up, probably convening focus groups to test reasons why Bama should still get in :)
 
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You're not wrong in theory, but I think part of it has to do with the fact that Michigan has manhandled all but one opponent, and Clemson has kept some games a little closer and then got manhandled themselves. So if Michigan loses a close game to a team that beat the team that manhandled Clemson, I would see the logic in not dropping them quite as far.

Logically, 1 loss ACC champ in Clemson should be in over a 1-loss Tennessee that doesn't even play in their championship. But of course a win over Alabama is viewed as something cast down from the heavens so they must be divinely appointed. I agree with your earlier post, the Vols path to 11-1 is now pretty easy. I keep going back to how we held them to 3 second half points, and if a few breaks went our way both teams would have a different season. I don't think they deserve to be in unless both the ACC & PAC12 don't produce a 1-loss champ.
 
My final predictions are:

Georgia
Won't matter
Also won't matter
Definitely won't matter.

eh, you never know. Remember the Jason White Oklahoma team that was supposed to be invincible and was totally throttled by KSU in the Big 12 championship? Also Georgia didn't look so hot in the SEC championship last year, although they rebounded in the playoff.
 
eh, you never know. Remember the Jason White Oklahoma team that was supposed to be invincible and was totally throttled by KSU in the Big 12 championship? Also Georgia didn't look so hot in the SEC championship last year, although they rebounded in the playoff.
I know. We've seen a complete turnover in the top 4 over the last month of the season, before. Just seems pretty unlikely Georgia craps the bed in the SEC championship again. Even if they do, it might not matter.
 
It's a shame that brand name, TV ratings, etc still play a role in this. I guess an expanded playoff will help with some of that if all (major) conference champions get in. But looking at Clemson, I don't argue with anyone that says their schedule is soft, they have flaws as a team, etc. But then why doesn't that same logic apply to say Michigan? If Michigan is 11-1 with the loss to Ohio St, then they will have no wins of consequence. Will they drop to #10 if the lose to OSU? Similar with USC and others.
For starters, losing to top 3 OSU is not the same as losing to unranked ND. Now if OSU stomps Michigan, I think that one loss should keep them out.

Clemson doesn't pass the eyeball test. They haven't all year, or obviously last year. They at least had a dominant defense last year. Not this year. They aren't nearly as strong overall as they have been in their CFP years, and they do not have that championship-level QB.

I believe the same can be said for OSU, but obviously if they go undefeated, they're in regardless, as Clemson would have been had they gone undefeated. Undefeated from a P5 makes it pretty simple.
 
For starters, losing to top 3 OSU is not the same as losing to unranked ND. Now if OSU stomps Michigan, I think that one loss should keep them out.

Clemson doesn't pass the eyeball test. They haven't all year, or obviously last year. They at least had a dominant defense last year. Not this year. They aren't nearly as strong overall as they have been in their CFP years, and they do not have that championship-level QB.

I believe the same can be said for OSU, but obviously if they go undefeated, they're in regardless, as Clemson would have been had they gone undefeated. Undefeated from a P5 makes it pretty simple.
A one loss Tennessee probably has a better resume than Clemson but a one loss Clemson is also a conference champ. Relatively speaking, most of the top schools not in the SEC will end up having pretty weak resumes at one loss so it's tough to really say one way or another until we get there and can hold everyone up to the light and take a look.
 
A one loss Tennessee probably has a better resume than Clemson but a one loss Clemson is also a conference champ. Relatively speaking, most of the top schools not in the SEC will end up having pretty weak resumes at one loss so it's tough to really say one way or another until we get there and can hold everyone up to the light and take a look.

I have a feeling they'll decide how much a conference championship means once they see who wins them. If Tennessee and USC win out, they'll find a way to have Tennessee at #3 and USC at #4 to avoid a rematch. If it's Tennessee and Oregon that win out, well, you can't really avoid a first-round rematch since both have played Georgia. If Tennessee and TCU are vying for the 4th spot and TCU only has one loss and has won the Big 12, I think they'll give it to TCU since Gerogia already kicked the doors off Tennessee.

Right or wrong, they weight the criteria a little differently to dance around rematches in that first round.
 
If TCU loses one game, they are out. And I think it's likely they lose one .

If Georgia finishes 12-0 and loses the SEC Championship game, they are likely in. If they lost to LSU then what would that mean for a two loss LSU team compared to a 11-1 Big Ten OSU or Michigan? This is why 4 teams isn't enough.

I suspect that Tennessee will lose one more. They barely beat Pitt and they have been riding the adrenaline wave to this point.

My prediction is Georgia continues to run the table and grand the #1 spot. Michigan finishes 12-0 and wins the Big Ten Championship to grab the #2 spot.

The Pac 12 has a four way tournament of sorts, between USC, UCLA, Oregon and Utah. USC vs. UCLA winner will play the Oregon vs. Utah winner for the #3 or #4 spot.

That leaves voter darling OSU grabbing the 4th spot.

#1 Georgia vs. #4 OSU
#2 Michigan vs. #3 USC/Oregon
The loss being really fresh would probably keep the buckeyes out.
 
I have a feeling they'll decide how much a conference championship means once they see who wins them. If Tennessee and USC win out, they'll find a way to have Tennessee at #3 and USC at #4 to avoid a rematch. If it's Tennessee and Oregon that win out, well, you can't really avoid a first-round rematch since both have played Georgia. If Tennessee and TCU are vying for the 4th spot and TCU only has one loss and has won the Big 12, I think they'll give it to TCU since Gerogia already kicked the doors off Tennessee.

Right or wrong, they weight the criteria a little differently to dance around rematches in that first round.
I think it depends on how many go undefeated. If you have three unbeaten teams, that fourth slot almost has to go to a one loss conference champ, right? Two or less opens some possibilities. It gets messy if there are a bunch of upsets.
 
The loss being really fresh would probably keep the buckeyes out.
If the loss is to Michigan and Michigan is undefeated OSU is virtually certain to be out.
A one loss Tennessee probably has a better resume than Clemson but a one loss Clemson is also a conference champ. Relatively speaking, most of the top schools not in the SEC will end up having pretty weak resumes at one loss so it's tough to really say one way or another until we get there and can hold everyone up to the light and take a look.
odds are the B10 and SEC will each have an undefeated team so there’s 2 spots. There will be too many strong 1 loss teams for Clemson to get in this year based on the metrics used for picking the top 4. They will have the worst quality of loss as well. They’re just not very impressive by any measure you want to use, starting with your eyes.
 
If the loss is to Michigan and Michigan is undefeated OSU is virtually certain to be out.

odds are the B10 and SEC will each have an undefeated team so there’s 2 spots. There will be too many strong 1 loss teams for Clemson to get in this year based on the metrics used for picking the top 4. They will have the worst quality of loss as well. They’re just not very impressive by any measure you want to use, starting with your eyes.

I agree with them not being good. I think where it gets interesting is if:

1) Clemson wins out and ends up 12-1 after beating a 10-2 or 11-1 UNC team.

2) The winner of the Pac 12 has at least two losses

3) TCU has at least two losses

Then, I think you're looking at either Clemson or the loser of Ohio State/Michigan for that final spot. If Ohio State loses that game, do they use the Notre Dame common opponent logic and choose them? Or do they go with the conference champion?
 
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If the loss is to Michigan and Michigan is undefeated OSU is virtually certain to be out.

odds are the B10 and SEC will each have an undefeated team so there’s 2 spots. There will be too many strong 1 loss teams for Clemson to get in this year based on the metrics used for picking the top 4. They will have the worst quality of loss as well. They’re just not very impressive by any measure you want to use, starting with your eyes.
If you line up a one loss, conference champion, Clemson schedule this year up against their 2016 schedule, you could make an argument that they aren't really much different. The eye test made them look much more dominant in 2016. At least when they weren't losing to Pitt.

Remember, the only time a P5 conference champ with one loss or fewer got shut out of the playoff was when every conference had a champ ended up with one or fewer losses or ND went undefeated. Not saying that can't change but the committee has been pretty consistent with that.
 
I agree with them not being good. I think where it gets interesting is if:

1) Clemson wins out and ends up 12-1 after beating a 10-2 or 11-1 UNC team.

2) The winner of the Pac 12 has at least two losses

3) TCU has at least two losses

Then, I think you're looking at either Clemson or the loser of Ohio State/Michigan for that final spot. If Ohio State loses that game, do they use the Notre Dame common opponent logic and choose them? Or do they go with the conference champion?
Actually, TCU can be a one loss team and not win their conference and that could put Clemson in. It's not like TCU would have a glowing resume at that point.

There are too many ways the Pac12 can screw themselves up to even begin to sort it out but none of those teams have stunning resume's either. Someone out there is very overrated. USC could at least claim ND as a win and that does put them in ahead of Clemson in most people's mind if they win out.
 
Yeah I am sure odd things could still happen but unlikely.

TCU seems almost a lock to get in at this point. I suppose they could lose but it doesn’t seem likely.

Georgia is a virtual lock even if they lost in the SEC Championship game. If Georgia does not win the SEC Championship there would be some interesting Debate about taking the SEC Championship game winner over a one loss Tennessee team.

The Big Ten could have two teams in the CFP, but only if Michigan wins a close one against OSU thereby allowing OSU not to fall out. if OSU wins then Michigan has zero chance in my opinion.

My final predictions are:

Georgia
OSU
Tennessee
TCU
TCU could go undefeated and they will not make the playoffs. Sadly, neither will Tennessee.
 
If TCU want undefeated they are guaranteed in.
It would be good if they were left out, more yelling for automatic qualifiers would amp up. That's what I want. and WTF an unbeaten P5 team left out? What BS is that?
 
What if UNC wins out and beats a 1-loss Clemson in the final? Both lost to Notre Dame, UNC loss margin was actually less than Clemson.
 
If TCU goes undefeated they will absolutely be in the playoff. Tennessee probably needs a little help. TCU just needs to keep winning.
I really do hope that happens, but they will not let it happen. Nothing against TCU, in fact, I'd love to see a team like TCU have chance, but again, they will not let it happen.
 
I really do hope that happens, but they will not let it happen. Nothing against TCU, in fact, I'd love to see a team like TCU have chance, but again, they will not let it happen.


Just out of curiosity, is the conspiracy against TCU run by the same cabal that all the football and basketball refs that have been engaging in a decades long conspiracy against Pitt football and basketball belong to, or is it a different one?

And to recap, this cabal wants to keep an undefeated P5 out but they had no problem with Cincinnati just last year?
 
This is the correct answer. Georgia will beat the brakes off of whoever they play.
That’s certainly how it looks, but not necessarily how it will play out. See last year for example, when Alabama beat the brakes off UGA in the SEC champ then went down hard to them in the NC.
 
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Just out of curiosity, is the conspiracy against TCU run by the same cabal that all the football and basketball refs that have been engaging in a decades long conspiracy against Pitt football and basketball belong to, or is it a different one?

And to recap, this cabal wants to keep an undefeated P5 out but they had no problem with Cincinnati just last year?
There is no conspiracy going on, it is just a fact. What happened last year to Cincinnati last year, was not the norm. You can try to spin it any way you'd like, but the odds of an undefeated TCU team getting selected to be one of the four teams in the national playoff, are very low.
I would love to see it happen every year, but the folks that make those decisions will find a way to justify keeping a team like TCU out of the playoffs.
Don't blame me, blame the flawed system.
 
You can try to spin it any way you'd like, but the odds of an undefeated TCU team getting selected to be one of the four teams in the national playoff, are very low.


I'm not spinning it at all. You are spinning it, assuming that by "spinning it" you mean "substituting your opinion for the obvious facts of the situation".

There is no way that TCU gets left out if they go undefeated. Literally, no way. No matter how many times you say otherwise so you can spin your conspiracy tales it won't change the way that things really are. If TCU wins out they are obviously in.

Of course they aren't going to win out, but that's a different story.
 
There is no conspiracy going on, it is just a fact. What happened last year to Cincinnati last year, was not the norm. You can try to spin it any way you'd like, but the odds of an undefeated TCU team getting selected to be one of the four teams in the national playoff, are very low.
I would love to see it happen every year, but the folks that make those decisions will find a way to justify keeping a team like TCU out of the playoffs.
Don't blame me, blame the flawed system.
Zero % chance an undefeated TCU doesn't make it.
 
I'm not spinning it at all. You are spinning it, assuming that by "spinning it" you mean "substituting your opinion for the obvious facts of the situation".

There is no way that TCU gets left out if they go undefeated. Literally, no way. No matter how many times you say otherwise so you can spin your conspiracy tales it won't change the way that things really are. If TCU wins out they are obviously in.

Of course they aren't going to win out, but that's a different story.
I hope that we get the chance to see what they will do with an undefeated TCU team. Sadly, tonight they have shown little against a slightly better then average Texas football team.
 
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