History will show that it is quite possible for that exact thing to happen. Before we go any further though, lets all see if this undefeated TCU team can beat Texas tonight.
CFP is fascinating
- Thread starter Duneaux Harm
- Start date
No it won't. History will show no undefeated power 5 team has ever missed the playoffs.
I would love to see what the Vegas odds would be on a 2 loss Alabama football team being selected for one of the four playoff spots, over an undefeated TCU team.
Since LSU has officially clinched the SEC west and Alabama has two loses I'd say Alabama's odds of making the playoff are slightly less than 1% right now. The committee isn't taking the fourth best SEC team over an undefeated power five conference champ.
As someone who lives in Vegas and worked as an oddsmaker at a major book I will tell you that the odds of an undefeated TCU being excluded in favor of a 2 loss Alabama team are 0.0%.
Mind you if they played right now Alabama would be a 14+ point favorite over TCU, hell a 3 loss Texas team was a 7 point favorite over TCU tonight. It doesn’t matter, if TCU runs the table they are in, probably as a #3 seed.
Stop using facts. You're going to befuddle him.
Or I should say, befuddle him even more.
The game isn't over yet, but they are beating the team that the committee had ranked 18th this week on the road. If they continue on to win YOU might think that's an example of a team showing little against a slightly better than average team, but the COMMITTEE obviously won't think that way.
So, I guess here is the better question. I think if UGA goes 12-0 regular season they are 100% in. So too would the Ohio St/Michigan winner if both are 11-0 going into big game. And so too would TCU with an undefeated season.
How would these 3 teams be ranked:
1 loss Michigan/Ohio St loser
1 loss Tennessee
2 loss LSU (who would have beaten UGA in SEC championship).
Even with the UGA win - they have to put Tennessee in, right? Head to Head win over LSU enough? One less loss?
Funny you mention that as this scenario was a topic of discussion between a few of us last night. The consensus seemed to be that Tennessee is sitting in a pretty good spot right now, which the odds certainly reflect.
Obviously a lot of games left to play, but (other than Georgia with an SEC title game loss) Tennessee figures to be the highest rated 1 loss team and I don’t think it will even be that controversial.
There will be the usual crowd saying “but Tennessee didn’t even play in the conference title game”, but their overall resume will surpass anything the others will have. We will also probably have a scenario where the theoretical SEC champion (LSU) is excluded, so at least the SEC and Brian Kelly haters can take some solace from that.
It really gets interesting if TCU would lose, then you’d have Georgia, OSU/Michigan winner and Tennessee in, with the final spot going to either:
OSU/Michigan loser (would leave us with 2 SEC teams vs 2 BIG teams and people would be pissed)
SEC champ LSU (would leave us with 3 SEC teams and people would be REALLY pissed)
1 loss USC - would have a pretty good resume but hard to see them running the table from here
1 loss TCU - would have a recent loss to someone not all that good and probably fall out of contention
1 loss Clemson - certainly has name recognition but would’ve beaten absolutely no one
Its a fun discussion to have, I almost miss the annual SMF post saying if 42 separate events occur Penn St can still get in.
Are we 100% sure that if Michigan beats Ohio St, but then loses to like…Iowa…they are in?
could you get 3 SEC teams and TCU?
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