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China Can’t Go It Alone

pittbb80

Board of Trustee
Oct 9, 2004
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Good article on the Trade war with China

Assertions that America is at a disadvantage in a trade war with China take official bluster at face value while overlooking the profound structural weaknesses of the Chinese economy. The only trade partner capable of helping China out of the fix in which it now finds itself is the United States, which means a win for Donald Trump is likely.​


 
Good article on the Trade war with China

Assertions that America is at a disadvantage in a trade war with China take official bluster at face value while overlooking the profound structural weaknesses of the Chinese economy. The only trade partner capable of helping China out of the fix in which it now finds itself is the United States, which means a win for Donald Trump is likely.​


I can see China though saying "**** it" and start a war like Japan did with us when we refused to sell them oil.
 
Good article on the Trade war with China

Assertions that America is at a disadvantage in a trade war with China take official bluster at face value while overlooking the profound structural weaknesses of the Chinese economy. The only trade partner capable of helping China out of the fix in which it now finds itself is the United States, which means a win for Donald Trump is likely.​


I definitely hope so. My concern is that China being an authoritarian regime whose people already have a crappy existence can wait us out. And they have some cards to play unlike many countries.
 
Good article on the Trade war with China

Assertions that America is at a disadvantage in a trade war with China take official bluster at face value while overlooking the profound structural weaknesses of the Chinese economy. The only trade partner capable of helping China out of the fix in which it now finds itself is the United States, which means a win for Donald Trump is likely.​


I am not very knowledgable about economics. What are the structural weaknesses?
 
I am not very knowledgable about economics. What are the structural weaknesses?
They subsidize industry to prop it up and we are the top consumer, removing our demand destroys their export revenue for everything cheap, leaving them exposed when the demand is removed.

They argue that they are exporting more elsewhere, however much of these are strategically transshipped good destined for the USA. [dodging prior tariffs through canada etc]

Previous rounds of tariffs they mitigated via currency devaluation [china domestically consumes less, allowing cheaper exports]

Now at current tariff levels their mitigation tactics and many of their factories are useless.
 
They subsidize industry to prop it up and we are the top consumer, removing our demand destroys their export revenue for everything cheap, leaving them exposed when the demand is removed.

They argue that they are exporting more elsewhere, however much of these are strategically transshipped good destined for the USA. [dodging prior tariffs through canada etc]

Previous rounds of tariffs they mitigated via currency devaluation [china domestically consumes less, allowing cheaper exports]

Now at current tariff levels their mitigation tactics and many of their factories are useless.
Their economy is a house of cards based on real estate. If you’ve ever been to China there are literal ghost cities being built The golf course where they held the Shanghai masters has multi million dollar homes surrounding the course that are empty. It’s just not sustainable. They were on the ropes at then end of trumps last term when Covid bailed them out
 
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