Comparing the 2009 Swine Flu epidemic that most have forgotten about...

Discussion in 'Locker Room' started by drp1tt, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. drp1tt

    drp1tt All American
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    Just trying to put things in perspective. A big difference in my opinion is the social media and the TV media which loves to put crazy spins on things and tossing out scary numbers and “experts” that nobody has heard oof before. The modern countries are showing a less than 1% death rate which should go lower as testing shows more positive results.

    This isn’t a nuclear holocaust. The sun will come up and in 1-2 months it will slow and in 6 months, like the swine flu, there will be some solutions.

    A look back at swine flu: 8 facts about the world's last pandemic in 2009

    Mackenzie Bean - Thursday, March 12th, 2020" rel="nofollow" style="color: rgb(0, 57, 116); font-size: 1em; word-break: normal; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px;"> Print | Email

    The World Health Organization on March 11 declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, the first such declaration in 11 years.

    Here's a look back on the 2009 swine flu pandemic with eight key facts from the CDC:

    1. The flu strain responsible for the outbreak — influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 — was first detected in America in April 2009.

    2. The strain represented a unique combination of influenza viruses never before seen in humans or animals.

    3. The virus quickly spread globally, primarily affecting children and adults under 65 who lacked immunity to H1N1.

    4. The WHO declared the swine flu outbreak a pandemic on June 11, 2009.

    5. Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, the CDC estimates swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S.

    6. On Oct. 5, 2009, the U.S. began administering a newly approved H1N1 vaccine to select Americans, with vaccination coverage expanding nationwide by that December.

    7. WHO declared an end to the pandemic on Aug. 10, 2010.

    8. Globally, an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 people died from swine flu in the first year of the pandemic.

    For reference, the COVID-19 pandemic has sickened 1,323 Americans and killed 38, as of March 12. More than 127,00 cases and 4,700 deaths have been reported globally.
     
  2. larboski280

    larboski280 Junior
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    Please don’t try and use facts - emotion is the only thing that matters right now.
     
  3. goodtymes

    goodtymes Freshman
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    But everyone uses full year swine flu stats. Let’s not act like we have any clue where the ceiling is on this thing
     
  4. pittjd06

    pittjd06 All Conference
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    So, using the death rate of almost 4% which is cited in the statistics espoused by the OP, 2.25 million people would die if COVID-19 infects as many people as the swine flu did.

    Even if we use the most recently cited statistics of a predicted 1.4% death rate, it's 850,000 deaths. That's damn near a million deaths in the United States.

    Which is why the spread of the virus has to be curtailed. Which is why social distancing is important.

    This isn't the swine flu.
     
  5. h2p_5150

    h2p_5150 Head Coach
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    Even if you dont die from this, there are some concerns that this virus might cause permanent lung damage to those that get pneumonia from it.
     
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  6. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    Coronavirus death rate isnt actually almost 4% though

    No country has enough tests to get an accurate number of infections

    Seen epidemiologists saying they think for every confirmed case there are 5 to 10 people who have it but havent been confirmed

    The actual death rate will be higher than that of SARS or swine flu but it is going to be lower than 3-4%
     
  7. Dr. von Yinzer

    Dr. von Yinzer Athletic Director
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    I have no idea if people are overreacting or under-reacting to this illness. I just know that when the swine flu was around, the leaders weren’t openly talking about closing down major cities and effectively cratering the world economy for months at a time, as they are doing now.

    I know it’s easy to blame social media or the dreaded “main stream media,” and I have no doubt that many people will do just that because for many that has become an easy target and a security blanket.

    If you don’t like the news, just decry it as being fake news and go about your business.

    Well, that’s a propaganda trick that works when you’re dealing with issues that are not affecting people’s’ day-to-day lives. You can say it’s all fake news when talking about election interference or extortion or any other number of crimes.

    However, when someone’s dad dies from this illness, you can’t call that fake news...because he’s definitely still dead.
     
  8. wbrpanther

    wbrpanther Lair Hall of Famer
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    This isn’t the flu. Wishing it is mostly hysteria doesn’t make it so. The death rate so far is tracking between 1 and 2 percent. We don’t know where that is going and shouldn’t speculate. No one should be panicking but no one should be saying the hype is overblown.
     
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  9. rschaitkin30

    rschaitkin30 Redshirt
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    The number of confirmed cases is way lower than the actual number of cases because we don't have nearly enough testing.

    West Virginia just confirmed their first case yesterday because they didn't have any testing until two days ago! It's not because there were no cases there.

    As for the numbers you presented: since March 12, the number of confirmed cases in the US has quintupled. We have more than 7,000 cases confirmed now.

    To recap: (1) this is spreading very rapidly, and (2) a lot more people have it than we know about.

    This could be seen as both good and bad. First, it's probably less deadly than we think because most people without symptoms haven't been tested and are unconfirmed.

    But it's bad because those of us who are young and relatively healthy may have been risking infecting others without showing any real symptoms.

    In summation, it's a big deal. It's not the media (though the TV media has done a great job of beating a dead horse as always), it's truly a big deal. We should all take it seriously.
     
  10. MIXED_PANTHER#1

    MIXED_PANTHER#1 Redshirt
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    If anything this pandemic is more closely relatable to the Spanish Flu

    The death rate was 2.34 or 2.31

    Rona has a death rate of 3.14

    The swine flu even at its highest was no where near as bad as this is right now at the beginning stages

    But take it serious

    Dont take it serious I dont care

    Just stay your ass inside & away from others atleast have respect enough to not even take a chance

    Stay strong fellas/ladies

    #H2P
     
  11. MIXED_PANTHER#1

    MIXED_PANTHER#1 Redshirt
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    Mind you the numbers i put have varried from site to site but the numbers aren't too far off

    The point is you dont have to take it serious for you to catch something. We all need to do our part and stay inside & if you feel symptoms get tested immediately
     
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  12. Dr. von Yinzer

    Dr. von Yinzer Athletic Director
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    I think that is why you’re seeing Trump trying to pull a Jedi mind trick on everyone and now pretend like he never called it a hoax or a liberal conspiracy and that he has known all along that this was going to be a pandemic.

    That’s obviously an absurd attempt to revise history, but what choice does he have? Right now, he stands to be known as one of the biggest fools in the history of the world.

    Right now, he’s the guy who called at all a hoax and who eliminated the pandemic response team purely out of spite for his predecessor.

    If this goes as poorly as I’m afraid it’s going to go, he’s going to go down in history as one of the most incompetent world leaders of all-time.

    Trump knows that too, which is why he’s trying so desperately to rewrite the history books and pretend like he didn’t call it a liberal hoax and like they were well prepared for this catastrophe.

    That’s also why his people are trying to call it the “Chinese Flu.” They’re trying to do anything they can to take the heat off of him, because right now, as things currently stand, he looks like an absolute buffoon idiocy and fool-hardiness is going to cost thousands of people their lives and thousands more of their livelihood.

    Trump’s mistake was approaching this as a public relations crisis, rather than what it actually was - a global health crisis. Had he treated it with even a modicum of humanity, rather than only considering the markets, we would’ve been better positioned to fight this scourge. Thousands of people still would’ve died, but thousands more would’ve been saved. Also, he would’ve look far less ridiculous in retrospect.

    Instead, he ignored his own scientists and ignored what was literally happening across the world and listened to his dumb ass rich friends at Mar-a-Lago and his boneheaded son-in-law, Jared.
     
  13. Pitt3Putt

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    In addition to being more deadly, this is a bigger deal than swine flu because the medical community has no effing clue what they’re dealing with, there’s no immunity within the population, and no starting off point for building a vaccine.

    That’s where the 12-18 month window and 2/3 of the population getting it comes from. It’s either going to take a vaccine, which is nowhere close to being ready, or enough people getting sick that there’s finally some herd immunity.
     
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  14. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    With the lengthy incubation period it is really hard to get a handle on how fast the virus is actually spreading. If 80% or something f newly confirmed cases were infected in the last week that is very not good. If they were infected 10 days or 2 weeks ago it is not so bad

    The real problem is nobody has enough data except maybe China and China just plain lies and lies and lies. By the end of the month we should have much more data and a much better idea of what is actually going on
     
  15. Dr. von Yinzer

    Dr. von Yinzer Athletic Director
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    One thing he does have going for him is an absolutely incredible propaganda machine – spearheaded by Fox News.

    I have no doubt that by June at the latest, they will have half the country convinced that he was actually the one sounding the alarm bells and that no one would listen and that this is actually all Chuck Schumer’s and Nancy Pelosi‘s fault; who of course were aided by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

    Also, George Soros will somehow be sprinkled in there too for good measure. Why? Who knows? Who knows why George Soros is connected to every conspiracy?

    I have no doubt that as more and more people die from this terrible thing disease – perhaps you or me – others will tell themselves fairytales that their hero was right all along – but that he wasn’t able to do anything about it because of the evil opposition party.

    However, when people produce old footage or his own Twitter screen grabs of him saying the exact opposite, conservatives will just dismiss it as “fake news” and liberal propaganda, or they will come up with some elaborate conspiracy theory that explains this all away; and there will be a huge percentage of the country that chooses to accept that version of events rather than the harsh reality that they let con man con them one too many times.

    That’s how things seem to work nowadays.
     
  16. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    You've engaged in the same behaviors you criticize the president for in your jeremiads

    Multiple untruths, hubristic declarations, politics before all else, etc

    Incredibly dire expectations have been set up for the next 6 months by remarks like yours. If they dont materialize, you have essentially reassured his reelection as the backlash will be immense. Big bet you've laid down on the table
     
    16 deepelemblues, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
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  17. eyebugs

    eyebugs Freshman
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    Could we all just discuss the virus itself and keep the politics away? I am so fatigued of the constant blame between left and right... The hype machine certainly cuts both ways... This issue is the virus.. Time to come together and do whats best to prevent the spread of the disease..
     
  18. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    Apparently we cannot. Coming together now wont help the president in November if the dire predictions come true. If they dont, the blowback is going to give him another four years

    Joe Biden gets it, hes trying to chart a more middle course. Criticize the president without letting his id run wild. It's the smart play. Too bad so many other opponents of the president cant do the same. It's Trump's biggest strength and greatest weakness, he cant restrain himself and his opponents respond to it with no restraint either
     
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  19. PantherRJ

    PantherRJ Freshman
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    The only example we have of an entire, closed population having been tested was with the passengers and crew of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Testing produced a fairly decent sample size of 700 infected persons and a mortality rate of 1.0%. But this was a predominantly elderly population (known to have a much higher mortality rate). Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, would yield a Covid-19 mortality rate of 0.125%.
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
     
    19 PantherRJ, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
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  20. jimmoyer

    jimmoyer Freshman
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  21. palpitt

    palpitt Freshman
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    You seem to be obsessed with Trump..for once, please, give it a break.
     
  22. jimmoyer

    jimmoyer Freshman
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    Why don’t you simply shut the f up and keep your petty political opinions to yourself. Most of us recognize our responsibility to each other and don’t need fools like you injecting your small minded political bull shit. Try to grow up and act like a man for once in your life and just shut up. Try being of service to someone rather than pushing your ignorance
     
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  23. palpitt

    palpitt Freshman
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    If you are referring to me...I simply reacted to someone else who made it political.
     
  24. bayardstreet

    bayardstreet Sophomore
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    Trump is toast and this is from a guy who likes him, voted for him and leans conservative in issues of immigration and boarders etc.

    Presidents get re-elected based on the economy doing well, quality of life in general and strong consumer sentiment. Safety also.

    The economy is shot. It will take many months to rebound. All of the stock market gains are back to zero as if today versus the day he took office. That’s tragic and all because of a virus.

    Trump gets re-elected if the economy rebounds quickly which it won’t. Trump gets re-elected if Biden mumbles and bumbles on the debate stage. Trump gets re-elected if he asks Nickie Haley to be his vice presidential running mate because Biden is going to cave to the DNC and ask Warren to join him. Trump will need to combat that move because he needs the female vote.

    Just my opinion.

    and remember the stock market dropped 40 percent in the 2008 banking crisis. It took a while to rebound and this will be the case as we sit here in hysteria It’s just not going to come back fast enough.
     
  25. ShibaPanther

    ShibaPanther Scholarship
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    I just love how these threads stay non-partisan and non-political and don't stay on thread topic.
     
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  26. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    Cuomo is heaping praise on Trump

    Because Trump is coming through for New York

    Is Cuomo gonna be campaigning for Trump in the fall?

    Hell no. Cuomo will be lashing Trump with gouts of lava then

    But right now that isnt important. And recognizing it isnt important will give Cuomo more credibility when he lashes Trump with gouts of lava in the fall

    Stop being so petty political now. That will allow you to be more effectively petty political later. If you cant stop yourself now you're stopping yourself later

    Even Trump understands this
     
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  27. billy7015

    billy7015 Scholarship
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    Your political interjection on this topic reminds me why I typically scroll right past your “novels”.

    Go post your political opinion somewhere else.
     
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  28. 4Mark_Marty

    4Mark_Marty Senior
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    He was already thought of as one of the biggest fools in history. Now it’s official.

    It’s better to remain silent and have people think your a fool, than to open it and remove all doubt. Or something like that.
     
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  29. Dr. von Yinzer

    Dr. von Yinzer Athletic Director
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    This is exactly what I was talking about earlier. The race to historical revision is on! Obviously, these infectious disease “experts” learned a hell of a lot in a week’s time.

    Trust me when I tell you that we are probably only days away from some insane conspiracy theory blaming Obama or Hillary Clinton for all of this. It’s coming as sure as there will be a Tuesday next week.

    They have one play and they run it over and over and over and over again because a solid third (or more) of the country falls for it over and over and over and over again.

     
    29 Dr. von Yinzer, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
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  30. pitt-girl

    pitt-girl Chancellor
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    Amen
     
  31. recruitsreadtheseboards

    recruitsreadtheseboards Lair Hall of Famer
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    I don't care what happened up to this point now. What I care about is moving forward.

    I don't care if things make Trump look bad or make him look like a god, I just want straight out facts and know that those in charge are taking this seriously and doing everything in their power.
     
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  32. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    They're certainly spinning the electronic money printing press like they're serious at least
     
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  33. andyjc712

    andyjc712 Junior
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    And he will be re elected because the Democrat Party cant nominate a better candidate which is pathetic
     
  34. deepelemblues

    deepelemblues Athletic Director
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    Why isnt the doctor 50 points ahead we might ask
     
  35. vietvet1

    vietvet1 Senior
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    Doc, your flat out wrong about President Trump calling this a hoax, he never said that.
     
  36. Estif2

    Estif2 Junior
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    Care to share your thoughts on the responses to your OP this thread? The CDC wasn’t going around suggesting we shut down the economy over swine flu, don’t really have a history of reacting to media induced overblown news. The CDC is genuinely concerned for public health (at least more so than virtually anybody else we hear from in Washington). Any other highly uniformed opinions should be noted as such.
     
  37. Estif2

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    Fact is he comparison being made is 12 months to 1 month. And that 1 month is way, way under- reported because there are about 1 /100th of the tests available to understand who actually has it, not just who gets sick from an obvious carrier or travel.
     
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  38. KTP

    KTP Senior
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    As someone who runs a nursing home and is responsible for 164 lives I have a little different perspective. I have spent the last few weeks on teleconference calls with the CDC CMS and DHS as well as my corporation which is one of the largest in the country. First of I can tell you the guidance and regs are changing constantly. All three organizations surprisingly will admit they know very little about what is happening and are learning on the run.

    I will tell you this many times questions are asked you can sense the frustration of having little to no information or ideas they thought are different it’s as if they had ideas or theories and things are different. The government agencies would never say it but u do get a feeling of frustration due to the feeling they either received very little info or very bad info from around the world. Comments like we are writing and re-writing the book daily, which was said Monday on a CDC call.

    I also sadly believe that we couldn’t of quarantined any earlier. I don’t think people would have responded. Evan last weekend bars were still packed I know my own daughter was out on Carson street. Now because of increased numbers and constant media attention people are only in the last week or so really taking it seriously. Any politician who had tried anything earlier would have been destroyed.

    from everything I have read and been told here is my theory and what I have been able to get. First an elderly person who is compromised physically. I have seen numbers from American LTC facilities that if a person is infected the death rate is 60%. It was also initially thought until the last few days that children couldn’t get it were only carriers. That is now proven incorrect. I have also seen and heard that a normal healthy adult the survival rate is 99+%. But you could have anything from so mild symptoms that u probably would never see a dr to being very Sick.

    I honestly don’t think they could have done much else and are handling it as well as possible. Time to follow the rules and support your agencies and don’t buy all the toilet paper.
     
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  39. PittME75

    PittME75 Sophomore
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    Here is what he said:

    “Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that, right?”

    “Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa.”

    “They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They’d been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning. They lost. It’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”
     
  40. bobfree

    bobfree Assistant Coach
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    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...ald-trump-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus/index.html

    It’s like you don’t even a clue what’s going on. Hahaha
     

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