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COVID VS FLU

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steelcurtain55.

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May 6, 2017
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A colleague of mine posted this today - thoughts?

Age 0-50
2x likely to die from flu vs Covid 19

Age 51-64
similar chances of dying from flu as Covid 19 (in a bad flu year)

Age 65+
Covid is 10x worse than flu in terms dying but sits at 1.3%

These rates are based upon SFR - symptomatic fatality rates which means people WITH symptoms. Approximately 35-50% cases are going to be symptomatic which further lowers the above numbers.

Data was pulled directly from the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

This isn't my post. Like I said, a colleague of mine posted it.
 
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Even if this is correct it’s more contagious than the flu and there are no treatments or vaccines like there are for the flu. So for now it’s far worse. The raw numbers of dead from Covid far exceed the flu in much less time. With mitigation. And speaking of - it’s expected that flu numbers dropped because of mitigation as well as this overlapped the end of flu season. But that’s anecdotal at this point.
 
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King Of All Message Boards said:
Even if this is correct it’s more contagious than the flu and there are no treatments or vaccines like there are for the flu. So for now it’s far worse. The raw numbers of dead from Covid far exceed the flu in much less time. With mitigation. And speaking of - it’s expected that flu numbers dropped because of mitigation as well as this overlapped the end of flu season. But that’s anecdotal at this point.
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Say a 2nd wave hits the United States in the future, if state governor's don't force covid positive patients into nursing homes, what do you think the #'s will be then?
 
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steelcurtain55. said:
Outside of the Flu vaccine which I've read is about 40% effective, what are the effective known treatments? Every time I've had the flu and sought treatment, my doctors have never have given me any medicine.
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Flu vaccine varies. There are several strains. If they nail the vaccine it’s more effective. If not maybe less. But I don’t know the numbers.

Tamiflu is an effective treatment but I think it has to be administered fairly early on. Don’t know if there are others.

As to your question - I haven’t a clue. When I post in these type of threads I post what I’ve read. I don’t know enough to speculate and I’m not in a scientific or medical field. I’m just another guy with an internet connection and a device to participate on the internet.

If a second wave hits hopefully we’ll have learned enough and have enough equipment/PPE to better handle it.

And hopefully we’re on the other side of the first wave. We should know in 3-4 weeks with things opening. I saw yesterday Montgomery AL was down to 1 ICU bed and were sending people to Birmingham. Don’t know if there are any other areas having the same issue.
 
The numbers don't lie but they certainly don't tell the truth with Covid at this point. We lose sight of the fact that we had the largest ever quarantine in the history of our country the past 10 weeks. This could explode without masks and social distancing in the fall. We flattened the curve now we must maintain it. It can be done without all of this government nonsense that is destroying the economy.
 
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Seems so many folks making these types of analysis .. comparisons..
minimizing.. projecting.. conspiracy theories... from all perspectives... everybody seems to find the facts that fit their belief, or makes them feel better, and they run with it... like it's gospel...
Which seems like reasonable coping mechanism due to stress and anxiety and so much uncertainty....
 
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steelcurtain55. said:
Outside of the Flu vaccine which I've read is about 40% effective, what are the effective known treatments? Every time I've had the flu and sought treatment, my doctors have never have given me any medicine.
Click to expand...
Tamiflu , relenza, rapivab, xofluza

that’s assuming you have confirmed influenza - and not just “flu”
 
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New stats every day. New recommendations from the CDC every day. New scientific evidence every day. Who really knows what, when and how. I remain cautious.
 
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King Of All Message Boards said:
Flu vaccine varies. There are several strains. If they nail the vaccine it’s more effective. If not maybe less. But I don’t know the numbers.

Tamiflu is an effective treatment but I think it has to be administered fairly early on. Don’t know if there are others.

As to your question - I haven’t a clue. When I post in these type of threads I post what I’ve read. I don’t know enough to speculate and I’m not in a scientific or medical field. I’m just another guy with an internet connection and a device to participate on the internet.

If a second wave hits hopefully we’ll have learned enough and have enough equipment/PPE to better handle it.

And hopefully we’re on the other side of the first wave. We should know in 3-4 weeks with things opening. I saw yesterday Montgomery AL was down to 1 ICU bed and were sending people to Birmingham. Don’t know if there are any other areas having the same issue.
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Nice post. It really is nice to read a post on this subject that doesn't go off the political rails (right or left).
 
I haven't heard much from my local health department, my state government, the federal government as to what are their PLANS (now that all 50 states are reopening to some degree) for dealing with any increases in infections/ flare ups / hot spots... before they get out of control ?..
I hear that a lot of workers are needed for contact tracing, so that seems to mean there is some kind of plan in place.. but haven't otherwise heard much about it..
DJT saying they'll suppress all "embers" and "flair ups" seems a bit lacking in detail..
Are there details ?
 
steelcurtain55. said:
A colleague of mine posted this today - thoughts?

Age 0-50
2x likely to die from flu vs Covid 19

Age 51-64
similar chances of dying from flu as Covid 19 (in a bad flu year)

Age 65+
Covid is 10x worse than flu in terms dying but sits at 1.3%

These rates are based upon SFR - symptomatic fatality rates which means people WITH symptoms. Approximately 35-50% cases are going to be symptomatic which further lowers the above numbers.

Data was pulled directly from the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

This isn't my post. Like I said, a colleague of mine posted it.
Click to expand...
Bingo!
 
jivecat said:
The numbers don't lie but they certainly don't tell the truth with Covid at this point. We lose sight of the fact that we had the largest ever quarantine in the history of our country the past 10 weeks. This could explode without masks and social distancing in the fall. We flattened the curve now we must maintain it. It can be done without all of this government nonsense that is destroying the economy.
Click to expand...

But it might not.

Its a great scare tactic. I heard one lunatic scientist who's predicting Wave # 3????? Maybe??
 
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jivecat said:
The numbers don't lie but they certainly don't tell the truth with Covid at this point. We lose sight of the fact that we had the largest ever quarantine in the history of our country the past 10 weeks. This could explode without masks and social distancing in the fall. We flattened the curve now we must maintain it. It can be done without all of this government nonsense that is destroying the economy.
Click to expand...

BULLSEYE! It can be done...
 
PITTF2 said:
But it might not.

Its a great scare tactic. I heard one lunatic scientist who's predicting Wave # 3????? Maybe??
Click to expand...
Reality is not a scare tactic. Scientists warn that without a vaccine, there could be a third wave. Why does that make it lunacy?
 
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Franb said:
Reality is not a scare tactic. Scientists warn that without a vaccine, there could be a third wave. Why does that make it lunacy?
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Because there is a slow death when it comes to science and expertise among some because they don’t like the answers or information. Most reasonable people realize it not infallible. And it’s dynamic. There are still people screaming about how all the models were wrong not realizing that models aren’t static. Models changed as mitigation occurred and behaviors changed. And none are perfect. They help drive decision making.

And this is so new there’s absolutely no chance to have a very high degree of accuracy. And I would imagine the chaos of it all adds to the errors. Hopefully it keeps getting dialed in so we can learn to live with it while we need to however long that is.
 
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Franb said:
Reality is not a scare tactic. Scientists warn that without a vaccine, there could be a third wave. Why does that make it lunacy?
Click to expand...

I would say to most people, it's skepticism, not lunacy. Most people take whatever the CDC says as gospel. When they are wrong they say "Well..... There's a lot of things we don't know about this virus" So how do we know they're right this time? How do we know they'll be a third wave when we don't know if they'll be a second wave? We don't. So skepticism is warranted.
 
I have treated more flu fatalities in the ER this year than coronavirus. I also see 1-2 young kids die each year from flu. I have not seen 1 kid with complications from COVID.
 
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Macchiato said:
Tamiflu? It has to be started in 1-2 days. I rarely see people with sx in 1-2 days. I also rarely prescribe tamiflu and never prescribed that new drug out they are pushing.
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True
It’s simply shortens duration by helping your body clear it with a boost from an antiviral .
If it’s not within 48-72 hours of symptoms - frankly you’re too late as your body will clear it within 5-7 days normally anyway
But- frankly - gaining 1-2 days of productivity back per person across the country is enormously economically beneficial .

Kiddo had flu a this spring - we took him in immediately because he doesn’t ever act sick and fell asleep in school .
They doubted he was positive , he was - started tamiflu that night - ended up only missing 3 days of school - which let mom and dad both work .

I’m not a push medication on everything type of pharmacist -
But - the financial benefits to tamiflu need considered when you’re treating patients, doc .
Just something to consider
 
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Macchiato said:
I have treated more flu fatalities in the ER this year than coronavirus. I also see 1-2 young kids die each year from flu. I have not seen 1 kid with complications from COVID.
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That makes sense
Totally different disease progressions
One has risk of massive fluid accumulation in the longs
The other is a slow fibrosis process with cytokine storm responses later .
Bad analogy but it’s like comparing asthma and copd.
 
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steelcurtain55. said:
A colleague of mine posted this today - thoughts?

Age 0-50
2x likely to die from flu vs Covid 19

Age 51-64
similar chances of dying from flu as Covid 19 (in a bad flu year)

Age 65+
Covid is 10x worse than flu in terms dying but sits at 1.3%

These rates are based upon SFR - symptomatic fatality rates which means people WITH symptoms. Approximately 35-50% cases are going to be symptomatic which further lowers the above numbers.

Data was pulled directly from the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

This isn't my post. Like I said, a colleague of mine posted it.
Click to expand...

The rate at which this thing kills older people is incredible. We've never seen anything like it. I agree that for younger people, there is virtually no risk of dying. I'm not worried about college kids dying. I'm worried they are going to spread it like wildfire killing old people.
 
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Here is another tidbit about flu, we weren’t testing for it at all in the urgent cares and rarely testing in the ED. The ED was a send out so completely useless unless admitting the patient.

I have personally diagnosed 11 COVID patients in Pennsylvania. My last exposure window ended almost 2 weeks ago. I go back and forth with this disease. Some days I think we would just call it a bad flu season oif unknown about COVID and some days it scares me.

the travesty is the patients who refused to seek treatment because they feared the ER. It will be interesting to see how many cancer diagnoses were delayed. The lack of elective procedures also contributed to some decline in health amongst the population.

If we didn’t do any mitigation then the denominator would have increased significantly with an increased number of deaths during a shorter time frame. Flattening the curve reduce the spike in fatalities but lengthens the bell curve for a longer duration of disease. In retrospect, we should have barricaded adult care facilities in Feb or early March and then just let it rip.

To obtain a successful vaccination program 3 out of 4 people will need to vaccinate. The disinformation has people scared and there is a growing dissent to vaccination. This is why we will have to just let go and let COVID do it’s thing.
 
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steelcurtain55. said:
A colleague of mine posted this today - thoughts?

Age 0-50
2x likely to die from flu vs Covid 19

Age 51-64
similar chances of dying from flu as Covid 19 (in a bad flu year)

Age 65+
Covid is 10x worse than flu in terms dying but sits at 1.3%

These rates are based upon SFR - symptomatic fatality rates which means people WITH symptoms. Approximately 35-50% cases are going to be symptomatic which further lowers the above numbers.

Data was pulled directly from the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

This isn't my post. Like I said, a colleague of mine posted it.
Click to expand...
Yep they just updated it .4 percent overall death rate not including asymptomatic patients, which is one third of the population. If these numbers are correct this was the biggest miscalculation in history. We tanked the economy worldwide for something that if kept out of nursing homes is no worse than the flu.
 
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The IFR rates listed the OP are fraudulent. Fake news. In reality they are much higher. The inflection rate for severity is around 40 years, not 65.

People need to get back to work and on with their lives but please stop from propagating false information.
 
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SoufOaklin4Life said:
Tamiflu , relenza, rapivab, xofluza

that’s assuming you have confirmed influenza - and not just “flu”
Click to expand...
Not to nitpick but "flu" is influenza. The various other thing like stomach distress and the like which are called flu are simply other viruses.
 
The sickness that has consumed the once greatest nation the planet has ever seen - another in an endless "it is only old people" screed.

No one on the planet knew what this thing was 7 months ago. It is the worst virus we have seen in our lifetimes due to its mix of transmissibility, long period of gestation, people having it being asymptomatic spreaders and its death rate. It tears arse when it gets into contained environments, similar to Legionarres disease.

EVERYONE wants things to "open" again, but there are these people who think they are so very special in that regard, and have some super secret insight to it all who are the squeeky wheels that are playing the role in making this infinitely more difficult than it has to be.

We are still figuring it all out, but it has been our closest brush with the big one in our lives. You want to wave the flag, babble about patriotism, well this is your moment to shine - think about others for a change.

Have yet to see or hear those wailing endlessly about opening things up aim their anger at the people who made this situation worse than it had to be, have done little more than than play grade school politics with it with and who have had next to no focus on doing the functional things needed to expedite getting us going again.
 
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Spectacle said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...rus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities
Click to expand...

I haven’t look at numbers recently but the only death under 50 in our region had multiple comorbidities and was medically fragile before the virus. I was at the COVID testing site on the Southside multiple days checking out the screening process. We were all shocked by the lack of severe patients they were sending us. Most looked like seasonal allergies or mild flu. The people I saw on 6th floor of presby were mostly people that had multiple medical issues going into COVID season. I remember when we had 9 flu fatalities in one week from previously healthy patients. I said to a colleague to imagine if 9 people died from COVID that did not have a long list of comorbidities. It would make front news. The influenza fatalities did not make front page
 
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Your personal observations do not comport with the statistics.

Western PA has largely been spared; that could quickly change. The local infection rate is less than 2 percent.

I'm not a chicken little. I go to work, and hope others go about their business with the necessary precautions, but the perpetual lying regarding the severity is terrible. See the CDC statistics cited in my linked article.
 
Jeffburgh said:
The sickness that has consumed the once greatest nation the planet has ever seen - another in an endless "it is only old people" screed.

No one on the planet knew what this thing was 7 months ago. It is the worst virus we have seen in our lifetimes due to its mix of transmissibility, long period of gestation, people having it being asymptomatic spreaders and its death rate. It tears arse when it gets into contained environments, similar to Legionarres disease.

EVERYONE wants things to "open" again, but there are these people who think they are so very special in that regard, and have some super secret insight to it all who are the squeeky wheels that are playing the role in making this infinitely more difficult than it has to be.

We are still figuring it all out, but it has been our closest brush with the big one in our lives. You want to wave the flag, babble about patriotism, well this is your moment to shine - think about others for a change.

Have yet to see or hear those wailing endlessly about opening things up aim their anger at the people who made this situation worse than it had to be, have done little more than than play grade school politics with it with and who have had next to no focus on doing the functional things needed to expedite getting us going again.
Click to expand...


I would call HIV the worst virus of our lifetime.
 
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Spectacle said:
Your personal observations do not comport with the statistics.

Western PA has largely been spared; that could quickly change. The local infection rate is less than 2 percent.

I'm not a chicken little. I go to work, and hope others go about their business with the necessary precautions, but the perpetual lying regarding the severity is terrible. See the CDC statistics cited in my linked article.[/QUOTE

All I can speak of is what I see with my eyes and hear from my ears from colleagues across the United States. I don’t speak about what CNN or Fox states because both are obviously spinning for an election.
Click to expand...
 
That's not what it says. Read it again.

Those numbers are the risk relative to the flu, given a set number of deaths from Covid. For instance, if you are 40 to 45, you are five times more likely to die from Covid.

Basically a non-event for anyome under 19, fairly benign for anyone under 40, with sharply increased severity thereafter.
 
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