Craig Meyer P-G

[gary2]

Craig Meyer‏Verified account@CraigMeyerPG 6h6 hours ago




Sure, Pitt's past 4 opponents haven't been as good as its 1st 4. That gap still isn't big enough to explain that kind of a statistical jump.

We are currently 135 in offensive efficiency. (all 8 games?)








http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/...cus-carr-kevin-stallings/stories/201712020138

 

[Pitt3Putt]

Yeah, the results today have moved that a bit (now 132nd in offensive efficiency; 168th defensively), but it's also worth noting that right now preseason expectations are still heavily weighted into these efficiencies.

Preseason expectations are comprised of previous 5 seasons, returning players, and overall coach history, FWIW. So, Pitt was probably pretty low.

Also interesting, Pitt is 350 out of 351 in a new stat called "minutes continuity", which is pretty self explanatory. Mississippi Valley State is the only team lower. Combine that with being 312th in overall roster D-I experience and, yeah. It's a pretty clear complete and total turning over the roster.

An interesting comparison for Pitt this year, in my opinion, is Cal. They are 320th in Experience and 344th in Minutes Continuity.

 

[R-M-U-h-o-o-p-s-f-a-n]

Yeah, the results today have moved that a bit (now 132nd in offensive efficiency; 168th defensively), but it's also worth noting that right now preseason expectations are still heavily weighted into these efficiencies.

Preseason expectations are comprised of previous 5 seasons, returning players, and overall coach history, FWIW. So, Pitt was probably pretty low.

Also interesting, Pitt is 350 out of 351 in a new stat called "minutes continuity", which is pretty self explanatory. Mississippi Valley State is the only team lower. Combine that with being 312th in overall roster D-I experience and, yeah. It's a pretty clear complete and total turning over the roster.

An interesting comparison for Pitt this year, in my opinion, is Cal. They are 320th in Experience and 344th in Minutes Continuity.

Lol poor Mississippi Valley St. One of the worst teams each year...if not the worst

 

[Pitt3Putt]

Lol poor Mississippi Valley St. One of the worst teams each year...if not the worst

Yeah I went through and it looks like they must go heavy on JUCO guys and transfers. They tend to have a decent amount of juniors and seniors but usually are really low on continuity.

Makes sense, can't imagine it's easy to get freshmen in their situation.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

ure, Pitt's past 4 opponents haven't been as good as its 1st 4. That gap still isn't big enough to explain that kind of a statistical jump.

We are currently 135 in offensive efficiency. (all 8 games?)

It's really three games that we have improved over. Four games ago was Oklahoma State and we were at 0.97 points per possession. But Oklahoma State is a pretty good defensive team (not great, but pretty good) so that was probably right around what we should have expected. In the other three, we did better than we "should have" against Lehigh and Duquesne and about what we "should have" against High Point.

 

[Pitt3Putt]

It's really three games that we have improved over. Four games ago was Oklahoma State and we were at 0.97 points per possession. But Oklahoma State is a pretty good defensive team (not great, but pretty good) so that was probably right around what we should have expected. In the other three, we did better than we "should have" against Lehigh and Duquesne and about what we "should have" against High Point.

Yeah when you drill down it's really the eFG% consistency that's been much better. They aren't bricking shots for long stretches recently.

Turnovers have killed overall efficiency in 2 of the 4 games, though, as you mentioned.

 

[R-M-U-h-o-o-p-s-f-a-n]

Yeah I went through and it looks like they must go heavy on JUCO guys and transfers. They tend to have a decent amount of juniors and seniors but usually are really low on continuity.

Makes sense, can't imagine it's easy to get freshmen in their situation.

Right if you bring in JUCO's most will play their junior year & stay for senior year. Unless they have some weird eligibility where they were hurt or something & can Grad Transfer somewhere. Toole at RMU has brought in some of the better JuCo's that I've seen in Karvel Anderson & Rodney Pryor. Bringing in 1-2 per class is usually a good thing.

 

[thirteenNINE]

I whipped up a little graph for everyone, since I liked Meyer's article, showing how we have done game by game compared to what would be expected given our opposition.

As you can see there is a definite trendline upwards for our offense, however, I would caution against too much optimism because right now it seems as though this team overperforms against bad defenses and underperforms against good ones which is really common in a younger squad. The more ball pressure that we see the worse relative to expectations that we perform.

 

[gary2]

It's really three games that we have improved over. Four games ago was Oklahoma State and we were at 0.97 points per possession. But Oklahoma State is a pretty good defensive team (not great, but pretty good) so that was probably right around what we should have expected. In the other three, we did better than we "should have" against Lehigh and Duquesne and about what we "should have" against High Point.

Thanks for that clarification

 

[gary2]

I whipped up a little graph for everyone, since I liked Meyer's article, showing how we have done game by game compared to what would be expected given our opposition.

As you can see there is a definite trendline upwards for our offense, however, I would caution against too much optimism because right now it seems as though this team overperforms against bad defenses and underperforms against good ones which is really common in a younger squad. The more ball pressure that we see the worse relative to expectations that we perform.

Thanks for providing this

 

[Pitt3Putt]

I whipped up a little graph for everyone, since I liked Meyer's article, showing how we have done game by game compared to what would be expected given our opposition.

As you can see there is a definite trendline upwards for our offense, however, I would caution against too much optimism because right now it seems as though this team overperforms against bad defenses and underperforms against good ones which is really common in a younger squad. The more ball pressure that we see the worse relative to expectations that we perform.

Interesting, thanks.

Said this in another thread but I think WVU is going to absolutely kill us. They’re better than Pitt at baseline and on top of it I think it’s a bad matchup. High Point flustering Carr and Milligan wasn’t unexpected but definitely hammered home that WVU’s press is going to give us a ton of trouble.