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Elite Eight Sunday: The Final Four is Set

17-15

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On March 4, Duke blew N.C. State out of its own gym, 79-64. This was the third of four straight N.C. State losses to end the regular season, the last of which, on March 9, was a second loss to a Pitt team that also had beaten the Wolfpack in Raleigh. N.C. State finished in 10th place in the ACC. Now, just 22 days later, N.C. State has won nine straight games, over Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia (with a miracle), North Carolina, Texas Tech, Oakland (with a big scare), Marquette and Duke again. I am not a betting man, but I would assume that anyone who bet on this happening would be a very wealthy person today.

Watching this deep, talented and well-rounded team, one question that comes to mind: Why was N.C. State the tenth-place team in the ACC? My answer: I don’t know.

I only know that they are really good now, they have been really good since we saw them in person beat Duke and North Carolina soundly in the ACC Tournament two weeks ago, and they were superb in the second half in beating Duke even more soundly tonight. Facing a 27-21 deficit at halftime, a first half in which both Duke and N.C. State played good defense but also played tight, as Charles Barkley insightfully noted at halftime, the Wolfpack exploded for 55 points in the second half. The DJs, D.J. Burns and D.J. Horne, just Went Off, scoring a combined 36 points in the second half. Burns and Horne play with passion and enthusiasm. And talent. When they get it going as they did in the second half, they are very hard to guard, even more so when they get it going at the same time. Add to this the steadiness and defense of O’Connell (who had 11 rebounds (at 6-2) and 6 assists tonight), Morsell, Middlebrooks and Bradley, and the elite rebounding and defense and improved scoring of Mo Diarra (a little off and mired in foul trouble tonight, perhaps impacted by his fasting for Ramadan) and that’s seven legitimate players.

For Duke, frankly, they did better than I thought they would in this tournament, even before they were aided by the devastating injury to Shead. The 40 point win over a James Madison team that had just dismantled the Wisconsin team that beat Purdue the weekend before was a great performance. We were not impressed at all with Duke in the ACC Tournament. Just not enough athleticism, odd as that seems for a team that is as selective as Duke is in recruiting. McCain had a terrific tournament, and he was terrific again tonight with 32 points. Filipowski is a player and can be a force on offense, but he is not a dominant player, and he is not an impact defender or rim protector. Plus, he’s pretty much a one-man band inside, while N.C. State had three. To his credit, Roach, who looked overmatched in the ACC Tournament, played aggressively and well in this Tournament. But Mitchell, one of Duke’s few plus athletes, needed to play well and instead he struggled. N.C. State looked like a better basketball team than Duke in Washington two weeks ago and they looked like a better basketball team than Duke in Dallas tonight.

As for the first game today, Purdue’s 72-66 win over Tennessee, if your idea of a good basketball game is one where the best player on Tennessee takes 31 shots, and the best player on Purdue shoots twice as many foul shots as the entire other team, Tennessee-Purdue was the game for you. It is not mine. Dalton Knecht was brilliant at times. 37 points is 37 points. Some of Knecht’s taking 31 shots was that his teammates were struggling, especially Jonas Aidoo, who was scoreless, and Zakai Zeigler, a valuable distributor and defensive pest as always, but who was 3-12 from the field and 1-8 from three. But James and Gainey were each 2-2 from three, yet they only took seven shots between them. Whatever the cause, the longer the game went on, the more the Tennessee offense became Knecht and four guys standing around. I don’t know if there was a way for Tennessee to come back on Purdue, but if there was, that was not it.

Purdue starts and ends with Zach Edey, and he is most of the middle, too. I remember him well as a promising but raw freshman who played 15 minutes a game behind a good player, Trevion Williams. I can only imagine the hard work between then and now that led to the overwhelming unstoppable force that Edey has been throughout this season and this Tournament. He dominated the Midwest Regional, averaging 30 points and 16 rebounds a game. He is so enormous that he makes gigantic human beings look small. He is not quick, but neither is he slow, and he is coordinated and skilled. He shoots fouls well for a big man, which is good because he gets fouled a lot and maybe protected a little bit, too. When you shoot 11 foul shots a game, as Edey did this year, or 22 foul shots, as he did today, it is important to make them. Lots of big men don’t. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Edey is that he plays almost 32 minutes a game, very high for a big man, and he played a remarkable 39 minutes today.

As for the supporting cast, it is frankly hard to say. Edey is so central to what Purdue does that everyone else seems like the Pips. There is talent there, and a little depth, and they won’t be overmatched physically, but on this team they are the Pips. Put a decent but unspectacular center on Purdue and they look like about a 9 seed to me.

So, the Final Four is set:

11-seed N.C. State from the ACC against 1-seed Purdue from the Big Ten, tip at 6:09 Saturday on TBS.

1 -seed UConn from the Big East against 4-seed Alabama from the SEC, tip at 8:49 Saturday on TBS.

The first game is a fascinating match-up. Edey who is seven feet, four inches tall vs. Burns who is seven feet, four inches wide. Burns was doubled against Marquette and took four shots. Duke played more straight up, and Burns scored 29. If Edey can stop Burns head up that would be a big advantage. It will be fascinating to watch him try. N.C. State’s big men need to find a way to make it hard for Edey and avoid foul trouble (which Edey himself almost never has.) N.C. State’s guards need to outplay Purdue’s, which is possible but not certain. Purdue is a strong favorite. I expect a close game.

In the second game, UConn is an even bigger favorite. UConn has been a machine for the second Tournament in a row. We won’t know if anyone can give them a game until someone gives them a game. Here is predicting, and hoping, that it won’t be Alabama.

6:09 Tip Saturday. Enjoy the games!

17-15
 
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