ESPN Analytics?

[DC_Area_Panther]

ESPN Analytics still predicts Pitt has only a 22.2% chance to beat Vanderbilt.

Sagarin's computer (which usually predicts close to what the Vegas odds makers will do) would have Vandy by only about 1 point (based only on the Home Court Advantage).

This seems like a disconnect--probably too much emphasis by ESPN Analytics on Pitt's early games? If ESPN Analytics were closer to Sagarin's computer Pitt would probably have an over 40% chance of winnnig, I would expect.

It will be interesting to see which prediction the odds makers will be closer to favoring when they release their opening line in a day or two.

 

[mas1021]

ESPN gave them around the same percentage to beat Northwestern and we saw how that worked out

 

[wbrpanther]

ESPN Analytics still predicts Pitt has only a 22.2% chance to beat Vanderbilt.

Sagarin's computer (which usually predicts close to what the Vegas odds makers will do) would have Vandy by only about 1 point (based only on the Home Court Advantage).

This seems like a disconnect--probably too much emphasis by ESPN Analytics on Pitt's early games? If ESPN Analytics were closer to Sagarin's computer Pitt would probably have an over 40% chance of winnnig, I would expect.

It will be interesting to see which prediction the odds makers will be closer to favoring when they release their opening line in a day or two.

Meh! The computer don't play. We were supposed to get blown out by Northwestern and NCState too.

 

[UPitthoops]

If we are getting points I am all over it.

 

[pittchagg]

Pitt’s going to be punished in some of the computer rankings (I’m guessing ESPN and NET are among them) because of the two blowout losses. They’ll play less of a part as we have more games (ideally more wins against not awful opponents) in our sample size.

 

[DT_PITT]

Pitt’s going to be punished in some of the computer rankings (I’m guessing ESPN and NET are among them) because of the two blowout losses. They’ll play less of a part as we have more games (ideally more wins against not awful opponents) in our sample size.

Exactly.

 

[Duneaux Harm]

Well the computer says we are heavy underdogs so no matter what the final score is then that is what we are. At least that is what some folks have been telling me.

 

[Cavalier Panther]

I don't get the sense that ESPN's model is very good or well regarded in the industry. Others do a better job.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I love this stuff because other than the first 3 weeks of womens college hoops this is the kind of weakness you can exploit on men’s college hoops. It looks like we’re a completely different team then those two games and Vegas will not have adjusted yet.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I don't get the sense that ESPN's model is very good or well regarded in the industry. Others do a better job.

It's not.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

It's not.

It has changed a little today. Pitt chance of winning now given as 30.3%

 

[Pitt2006]

I feel like prior to the NW game their BPI was 124. They then bumped up to 104 after that win and to 94 after nc state. I think it’s more Vandy is thought of as decent (bpi of 78) than Pitt not gaining? Should bump Pitt if they win and win decently.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

If we are getting points I am all over it.

We will be getting points. Probably 4-6.

 

[Wanstash21]

I’d be disappointed with anything less than a win