ESPN Probability of Winnning -- Rest of Season

[DC_Area_Panther]

Based on the ESPN probability of winning for each of Pitt"s remaining games--

(1) Pitt is slightly favored in one game (Georgia Tech) with a 57.3% likelihood of winning and given a shot at another (43.3% likelihood to win vs NC State).

(2) Overall, considering all games, there is a cumulative likelihood of close to winning a maximum of 2 games.

QUESTIONS:

A. Does Capel need to win two games to go to 5-15 ACC and get to 10 wins total for the season to be back next season? After all, Stallings was fired for going 8-24 (0-18 ACC).

B. If Capel were to be let go and a new coach hired will Pitt's timing be right so that the new coach can have a shot at doing well in the transfer portal and also have a shot at keeping the best players on the current roster? [Opinion: In the current transfer portal era you do NOT want to make the situation worse when you change coaches than it was before. This is why Louisville looks really smart in letting Mack go mid-season.]

C. RE: B. -- If you don't time the coaching change right at the end of this season--is it better to wait another year to make the change and do it with the most advantageous timing for the program? [Opinion: I believe the answer is probably yes.]

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Based on the ESPN probability of winning for each of Pitt"s remaining games--

(1) Pitt is slightly favored in one game (Georgia Tech) with a 57.3% likelihood of winning and given a shot at another (43.3% likelihood to win vs NC State).

(2) Overall, considering all games, there is a cumulative likelihood of close to winning a maximum of 2 games.

QUESTIONS:

A. Does Capel need to win two games to go to 5-15 ACC and get to 10 wins total for the season to be back next season? After all, Stallings was fired for going 8-24 (0-18 ACC).

B. If Capel were to be let go and a new coach hired will Pitt's timing be right so that the new coach can have a shot at doing well in the transfer portal and also have a shot at keeping the best players on the current roster? [Opinion: In the current transfer portal era you do NOT want to make the situation worse when you change coaches than it was before. This is why Louisville looks really smart in letting Mack go mid-season.]

C. RE: B. -- If you don't time the coaching change right at the end of this season--is it better to wait another year to make the change and do it with the most advantageous timing for the program? [Opinion: I believe the answer is probably yes.]

3-17: 50% chance of being fired
4-16: 30% chance
5-15: 10% chance
6-14: 0%

If he has many of the good players transfer: 100% of being fired regardless of record. Its ride or die with this core. He doesn't get a 3rd rebuild here.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

3-17: 50% chance of being fired
4-16: 30% chance
5-15: 10% chance
6-14: 0%

If he has many of the good players transfer: 100% of being fired regardless of record. Its ride or die with this core. He doesn't get a 3rd rebuild here.

He might win 1 more game the rest of the year, and that's not a given. This is February and his teams aren't built to do anything in February for whatever reason.

But he'll still be here next year, so we have to get over it. He'll have no good players returning (some will transfer or their eligibility is up) and he has no one recruited...not one player. If he gets lucky in the portal, he might get a player who can contribute right away. But that's just one. So next year might be worse than this year.

 

[WillFerrell]

3-17: 100%chance of being fired
4-16: 100% chance
5-15: 100% chance
6-14: 99% chance

 

[WillFerrell]

3-17: 100%chance of being fired
4-16: 100% chance
5-15: 100% chance
6-14: 99% chance

And 0% chance they finish 6-14.

And 60% of the time, it works every time.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

3-17: 100%chance of being fired
4-16: 100% chance
5-15: 100% chance
6-14: 99% chance

So 6-14, he's 99% gone but 7-13, he stays?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

But he'll still be here next year, so we have to get over it. He'll have no good players returning (some will transfer or their eligibility is up)

If Hugley leaves, he is gone. That is our only hope for next year.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So. Hugley.. the guy who avgs more Turnovers than rebounds the last 6 games, who is already exhausted less than half way thru ACC because of his weight and conditioning, whose Basketball IQ is equal to a Lemon.

This is what you are hoping for?

You are an Idiot

Him returning and becoming AA caliber is the only hope. He is the 2nd best freshman big we've had in decades behind Blair. Its possible

 

[WillFerrell]

Him returning and becoming AA caliber is the only hope. He is the 2nd best freshman big we've had in decades behind Blair. Its possible

But it has nothing to with HL's decision process. she's not slipping into his Instagram DMs asking Big John if he's coming back to help her make a decision. It's about "the overall state and direction of the program". And the answer to that question is pretty straightforward.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

But it has nothing to with HL's decision process. she's not slipping into his Instagram DMs asking Big John if he's coming back to help her make a decision. It's about "the overall state and direction of the program". And that question is pretty straightforward.

It’s mind boggling how so many don’t seem to understand that.

Being concerned about next year is so myopic it’s beyond silly.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

It’s mind boggling how so many don’t seem to understand that.

Being concerned about next year is so myopic it’s beyond silly.

I agree. This downtrend we're in goes way beyond next year if you look at the conditions and state of the whole program, from the AD to the administration to the coaches. There is nothing there to suggest that we're going to improve in the next few years, at least. The decision-making all around is poor in practically everything they do.

Since Stallings was here, the culture of the Pitt basketball program has been toxic. It has gotten worse in additional ways under Capel. That won't change overnight no matter who the coach is.

 

[gary2]

It’s mind boggling how so many don’t seem to understand that.

Being concerned about next year is so myopic it’s beyond silly.

Agree - Certainly not about next year

McGoweno, Johnson, Toney, Justin, Hugley, Coulibaly, Femi, Jeffress, Collier (last 2 highly rated but mistakes)

Horton, Nike, Burton, Gueye

He had Mintz

Some say he could have had Julian and Posh Alexander

I am guessing he passed on other gets while holding out for better

That level far exceeded ACC Dixon or Stallings. It would have brought a level of success if he could have managed and maintained his players.

We were “back“ around the time of the Duke game. The Hugley arrest started The end of that sentiment. The near season’s end transfers and the revelation of internal turmoil continued it. the Capel press conference on the transfers wearing a BLM sweatshirt and failing to invite half the media was pathetic. The Lyke ridiculous excuse mission was also pathetic. Covid, Covid, Covid. The Capel mansion tweet ended it for me, the epitome of clueless . He has no idea how to deal with the public. The lack of recruiting since these public utterances is the exclamation point

The opening double digit home loss to Citadel was treated as just another game.

And the same attitude exhibited there and the excuses continue.
.
There was the act of self destruction compounded by never ending excuse making regarding that self destruction.

It really needs to end.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

The state of the program is 22 wins in last 100 ACC games. If she and others have flipped on Jeff, well that’s a pickle. Maybe she’ll bolt before having to deal with it.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I don't care how much Hugley likes Capel. Anyone think he is going to stay in this mess with no help, teams just beating him and collapsing on him, with no shooters to spread out the D, no playmaker to creatively get him the ball and no other big to help defend and battle on the boards?

Oh yeah, I am sure we are going to dip into Stoney Brook and get another Mo Gueye.

 

[PittPoker]

Him returning and becoming AA caliber is the only hope. He is the 2nd best freshman big we've had in decades behind Blair. Its possible

He couldn't sniff Blair's jockstrap.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Are people seriously comparing Hugley and Blair????? You have got to be kidding!!!! If Hugley and Blair were on the same team, Hugley would be down the bench quite a bit and would only see playing time when we were up by 20 or so in the last minute of the game. Let's get real!

 

[Drew1208]

A good coach can convince Hugley to stay if that's important.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

He couldn't sniff Blair's jockstrap.

Blair shot nearly 60 percent from the field and averaged 12.5 boards per game on a great team in a much better league. You are 1000 percent correct. Hell, he can’t sniff Armondo Bacot’s jockstrap and Blair would eat him alive too.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Blair shot nearly 60 percent from the field and averaged 12.5 boards per game on a great team in a much better league. You are 1000 percent correct. Hell, he can’t sniff Armondo Bacot’s jockstrap and Blair would eat him alive too.

And Blair was pretty good on defense and didn't turn the ball over very much.

 

[iMissTheOldDayss]

John Hugley won’t be here next year regardless, also Hugley is about 1% of the player Blair was

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

He gone...

• The Pete is a morgue
• They have no recruits and no prospects
• He's not going to fire his assistants
• There is no hope for next year
• The decision will be made(likely already has) irrespective and even before transfers

There's no way you can keep this staff. They lose more financially trying to save a year of buyout with an empty Pete. It's an easy decision, unpleasant, but easy.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Are people seriously comparing Hugley and Blair????? You have got to be kidding!!!! If Hugley and Blair were on the same team, Hugley would be down the bench quite a bit and would only see playing time when we were up by 20 or so in the last minute of the game. Let's get real!

But but but…Hugley will be the best big in college next year.

 

[gary2]

He gone...

• The Pete is a morgue
• They have no recruits and no prospects
• He's not going to fire his assistants
• There is no hope for next year
• The decision will be made(likely already has) irrespective and even before transfers

There's no way you can keep this staff. They lose more financially trying to save a year of buyout with an empty Pete. It's an easy decision, unpleasant, but easy.

Capel’s only positive attribute was his ability to recruit. He has lost that here.

He does nothing else a coach needs to do at even an adequate level.

 

[DT_PITT]

John Hugley won’t be here next year regardless, also Hugley is about 1% of the player Blair was

Blair was a first team AA and Big John is not in the same class. But let’s not sell him short either. He’s a really good player — one who is often the only option for his team. He’s also a better jump shooter than Blair ever was. I will resist putting a number on it but saying he’s about 1% of the player Blair was is way off I believe.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Blair was a first team AA and Big John is not in the same class. But let’s not sell him short either. He’s a really good player — one who is often the only option for his team. He’s also a better jump shooter than Blair ever was. I will resist putting a number on it but saying he’s about 1% of the player Blair was is way off I believe.

55-70%

 

[DT_PITT]

55-70%

Something like that.

 

[iMissTheOldDayss]

Blair was a first team AA and Big John is not in the same class. But let’s not sell him short either. He’s a really good player — one who is often the only option for his team. He’s also a better jump shooter than Blair ever was. I will resist putting a number on it but saying he’s about 1% of the player Blair was is way off I believe.

DT I respect your opinion more than most on here, you can’t seriously believe he is anything more than maybe 10-15% of Blair’s talent and overall skill…Hugley looks great some nights for us because we roster a team full of D2 talent for the most part. Dejuan was a man from the second he stepped on campus, Hugley is a good college player but absolutely nowhere close to Dejuan, I will agree with the jumper being better obviously although it’s still nowhere near the level Hugley needs it at if he wants any chance at the league

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Capel’s only positive attribute was his ability to recruit. He has lost that here.

He does nothing else a coach needs to do at even an adequate level.

I agree on the recruiting. He's got no mojo and has either gone about it wrong (shooting too high) or he and his staff just can't get it done. I don't know the answer.

His Xs and Os are meh, but I didn't ever expect anything great there. I do think his teams generally play hard, so he is able to motivate and extract effort.

I just don't see any value in keeping him. Let him finish the season and move on. It didn't work out.

 

[Silkky1982]

Bye bye Capel, and take your cronies with you 🥾

 

[bwh05]

The issue isn’t whether he deserves to be fired. He clearly does. The question is can we take the financial hit to buy him out. I believe he’s owed north of $20 million. That’s a big number.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

The issue isn’t whether he deserves to be fired. He clearly does.

Money aside, it it that clear to Lyke?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I believe he’s owed north of $20 million.

No, he's not.

 

[bwh05]

No, he's not.

So the buyout is a lot lower?

 

[pittzip]

The buyout is 8.5 Milly

 

[bwh05]

The buyout is 8.5 Milly

Oh thank god. That gives me hope then.

 

[pittzip]

Oh thank god.

Yea the first two years were fully guaranteed but when capel got extended that changed

Its still a lot of money.

Chris Mack was slightly higher and he settled for 4.5

I picked the wrong line of work!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

So the buyout is a lot lower?

A lot lower than north of $20 million?

Yeah, a lot lower than that.

 

[gary2]

The issue isn’t whether he deserves to be fired. He clearly does. The question is can we take the financial hit to buy him out. I believe he’s owed north of $20 million. That’s a big number.

Find a way to negate it or lower it.

 

[bwh05]

Find a way to negate it or lower it.

I thought he was guaranteed what he’s owed. I’m glad he’s not. The know right people definitely want him done so I think it happens.

 

[pittzip]

Everything is negotiate.
But even if it wasn't, they have the money

Recruiting violation's, university policy,so forth.