ESPN Probability of Winnning -- Rest of Season
- Thread starter DC_Area_Panther
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She's not dumb. Capel's not a guy you hitch your wagon to. Admitting it and moving on won't kill her, but backing him will.
She doesn't have to slip into DM's. If he announces he is leaving on April 18, he will be fired after, citing roster management problems.
So you think that she's going to be in trouble if she fires Caple, but you also think that she should be just fine with waiting until mid to late April to fire him if someone leaves in the portal. A time frame that would mean that Pitt had little to no chance to get one of the best available coaches and would mean that whomever the next coach is would have that much more difficult a time putting together a roster for next year.
I dare you to answer this question:
How many fans does Pitt average next year WITH Capel or a MM coach
I will answer:
Capel: 1500
MM coach: 2000
Its not relevant. We are going to be really bad next year with 12 new players playing for a new coach.
Well, I know she is IQ smart, but she compounded her own mistake with extending Capel. Looks like a similar disaster over on the women's side, seems like she puts too much emphasis on accolades vs performance/experience, and that is ....well dumb
First of all, there's no way Hugley is waiting that long. All transfer decisions will be made a week or 2 after our last game. But hypothetically, yes. If Hugley announces in April he's leaving, you fire Capel then and hire your lottery ticket. There's an endless supply of them. Will we suck next year? Yes. But we were going to suck even if you hired him March 15.
One of the main reasons to fire Capel is poor roster management. At their year-end review, Capel's big sell to save his job is he loves this core of players, they all bought in, and none are transferring. That a reason to potentially keep him. If a month later, they bail, there is no reason to keep him.
Do you really not understand that this decision is about a lot more than just next year?
Yep I do. But paying an extra $3 million to go 3-17 next year with a lottery ticket is asking a lot when you could return most of your good players.
April 18? This will be over by March 9th.
We get it. you'd rather go 6-14 next year and 3-17 the year after than go 3-17 next year and maybe improve the year after.
I mean it's completely, utterly illogical, but that's the box you've put yourself into.
Well, nobody can answer that, but I think everyone agrees it will be better without Capel than with. Even you have admitted as much.
The only way you keep him is if you still think he's your guy, not to save a few dollars in salary. That's just dumb.
Attendance will be very slightly better without him. Do you think we average 7000-8000 if we hire a MM coach and are picked 15th in the ACC?
If we fire Capel, we guarantee 3-17 next season with a MM coach and a roster full of misfit transfers. I cant do another rebuild right now. I believe that if Hugley and the 30 year old guards come back and we get a transfer PG, that we can contend for an NCAAT bid. So basically, I feel there is hope with Capel next year and no hope for the MM coach. I am not worried about 2023-24 at all because you can't plan for more than 5 minutes in today's college basketball. If we did hire a MM, its going to be a slow 4-5 year process to get to the NCAAT. Steve Forbes it will not be.
What good players? Gueye is graduating. Hugley will transfer, and he's not good enough to build a program around. The rest are very average to below average. Others will probably transfer. So who are these good players? We really don't have any now, with the exception of Gueye. If a program will struggle to get to double digit wins, show me the good players. Or is it the coach is that bad?
Hey SMF, do you like M&M’s that much? Why do you think the only coach we can hire is a mid-major coach? Medved isn’t a mid-major and other options aren’t either. I’m not saying we don’t hire one but none of us have any clue who Heather Lykes list is.
Lyke's list? Does she even have a list? We're assuming she'll try and replace him either at the end of this year or shortly thereafter. I don't think that is happening. Remember, this is Pitt athletics we're talking about here.
Does the name “Kevin Stallings” ring a bell?
Lyke canned him after 2 seasons.
I honestly think this is all but decided, unless they do something miraculous in the final games. She’s got a list, she’s not perfect but she’s also not stupid either.
If she doesn’t replace him, isn’t she risking her own replacement?
I never thought it possible, but I think Capel’s unpopularity is near Kevin Stallings levels.
It is not just the results, but how he has handled the results.
Honestly, how many times do I have to say if the good players leave, that he is done? I am assuming they are coming back because if they don't, there's no argument. He isn't getting a 3rd rebuild.
Why do you think Hugley is so joined at the hip with Capel?
surely Hugley has to know the only reason Capel took him back is because Capel desperately needed him. Capel didn’t do it out of the goodness of his heart, he needed Hugley more than Hugley needed him.
I actually think there is better chance Hugley stays if Capel gets the axe. It would require a name replacement plus a lucrative NIL.
Of all the moronic reasons to retain an under performing coach, that would be the most moronic.
I completely respect your opinion as well. Maybe this is just a question of definitions and/or perspective. What I'm saying is that I would grade someone like Max as 10-15% of Big Fella. By the same scale, I'd put someone like Big John around 60-70% of Big Fella. Maybe it's just a question of how we are grading? I don't think it's a disagreement between the two of us that Big Fella was a truly elite player while John is not in the same class.
Are you referring to Max Amadasun or another Max? Max Amadasun is like 1% of Blair. Max is in Tyrone Haughton territory. Hugley is about 50% of Blair. He’s a pretty good player, but Blair was one of our all-time greats.
Sure .., maybe Max is 1% of Blair, and maybe John is closer to 50% I might go with maybe 70% for a guy who maybe will be All-ACC, but I think you get my point.
Well Matt Steinbrink on the pay board said he thinks Capel will be back next season. That's utterly disappointing.
There are 2 scenarios where Capel won't be back:
1. Hugley leaves. Say what you want about him but his return and development into a premier college basketball center is the only hope this team has. The kid is very very skilled but needs refinement. He COULD make a huge improvement. He is only a Redshirt FRESHMAN.
2. Everyone stays but we go 3-17 and get blown out and look disinterested the rest of the season. Even in this scenario, its 50/50 on whether he stays or goes.
People thinking she is firing a coach she hired and extended with 5 years and $15 million left on his contract who returns 4 starters are insane. She's going to give him another year and say a lot of prayers she doesn't have to "realize" her mistake in March 2023.
8 figures is an sh!t ton of money for Pitt to buyout, especially to hire a MM no-name who will coach in an empty arena next season.
This team had no ticket revenue in 2020-21. This year, they probably sold 2000 season tickets and sell close to 0 single game tickets (except for Duke) so that's lets say $1,00,000 in revenue. Minus the cost of staffing The Pete + the $100K it costs to bring in cupcakes, you are at a net loss for 2021-22. I realize some of you will say, "see this is why he needs to go." Yea, if you can get Pitino, Oats, Buzz, Sean Miller (a lot of people will be over the moon and he will sell tickets whether you personally like him or not), etc. Attendance is going to be really bad next year whether its Capel or a no-name. And Heather cannot be banking on huge crowds for 2023-24 when the no-name pulls a Steve Forbes and puts together and NCAAT team. That is EXTREMELY unlikely to happen.
You can't assume anyone is coming back. If we don't win another game the rest of the year, which is a distinct possibility, there will be numerous transfers. Even if we do. This is a train wreck.
I can assume they will because it is pointless to think otherwise because then there would be no debate. If they leave, he's gone and we can all stop wasting time discussing it the "what ifs." He cannot lose another round of players and keep his job
You can hypothetically say they'll all be back, which is no big deal. But you can't assume anything, ever.
He can lose another round of players, and he probably will. And he will keep his job in all probability for at least another year. That's the way Pitt athletics works now.
The problem is it’s gone too far, people are done with Capel due to players transferring out, lack of recruiting, February meltdowns, and many excuses. He’s failed in every aspect of coaching here at Pitt, and honestly no matter what he does from this point on people are beyond the point of caring cause they know he continually fails at his job. That’s why I think No matter what the money is, when you lose any and all hope thats the death of a program. A change needs made to bring that Hope back and we’ll go from there.
I have to believe that Heather has some trusted mentors and advisors in the AD departments across the country. People she can talk to about the current situation. Usually fans think they know things about the failings of a program but if you step back and look at those opinions with a thoughtful eye, you realize it is all just wishes from fans and not actual facts to about the situation. However in Pit’s current situation it is just the opposite. You see the poor play and the INCONSISTENCY and can hardly believe things are so obviously BAD. Heather sees that too.
I said a long time ago she is stuck because she cannot even use a guy from his staff as an Interim coach because they are so deeply tied in with him. She has to let the season just play out and end in a month and fire him the day after the ACC tourney.
She will be getting advice on the kinds of guys out there who have the ability to take a group of kids of any caliber and get them in a winnable condition within two years to provide enough hope for the future. That window can then help with maybe attracting more recruits and we go from there.
Capel has ZERO chance of coming back. Heather won’t let the basketball team be such a laughing stock that it effects football and other sports.
I said a long time ago she is stuck because she cannot even use a guy from his staff as an Interim coach because they are so deeply tied in with him. She has to let the season just play out and end in a month and fire him the day after the ACC tourney.
She will be getting advice on the kinds of guys out there who have the ability to take a group of kids of any caliber and get them in a winnable condition within two years to provide enough hope for the future. That window can then help with maybe attracting more recruits and we go from there.
Capel has ZERO chance of coming back. Heather won’t let the basketball team be such a laughing stock that it effects football and other sports.
