Final 3 game breakdown - what to take from it?

[Slick Manager of Champs]

it's been kind of discussed in some threads, but let's put it together here. What are your thoughts for how the season plays out

a) win one of three, finish 7-5; okay season, need bowl win to be considered good season

b) win two of three, finish 8-4; Good season, very good if a bowl win.

c) win three of three, finish 9-3; Outstanding season, bowl win is icing on cake.

d) lose all three; Would consider the season somewhat a disappointment, but not failure. All coaches get a pass in year one. Need a bowl win to take some sting off and have some momentum in off-season

Also Noteworthy, our schedule did us no favors. Two P5 teams OOC, plus all the road games to start the year.

 

[Seneca_Valley]

it's been kind of discussed in some threads, but let's put it together here. What are your thoughts for how the season plays out

a) win one of three, finish 7-5; okay season, need bowl win to be considered good season

b) win two of three, finish 8-4; Good season, very good if a bowl win.

c) win three of three, finish 9-3; Outstanding season, bowl win is icing on cake.

d) lose all three; Would consider the season somewhat a disappointment, but not failure. All coaches get a pass in year one. Need a bowl win to take some sting off and have some momentum in off-season

Also Noteworthy, our schedule did us no favors. Two P5 teams OOC, plus all the road games to start the year.

Generally agree but your bar is lower than mine. A 6-6 record is a failure when you consider the 6-1 start. It also means that we did not beat anyone but lousy teams. 8 or 9 wins signals we may be on to something although next years tougher schedule may mask overall improvement.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

not sure I would say failure; more like disappointment at losing last 3. These aren't cakewalks by any stretch of the imagination. Plus it is year one.

 

[NCanton Panther]

'Also Noteworthy, our schedule did us no favors. Two P5 teams OOC, plus all the road games to start the year'

I really don't think playing two P5 teams (or 1 plus ND as was the case) OOC is excessive. When you get right down to it, that should be the minimum standard every year.

Also, all the road games to start the year really didn't hurt us. We won all those road games except for Iowa. That may have came out differently if playing at home but that's definitely not a given. When you get right down to it, we have 3 losses and those were all to the teams better than us (UNC and ND definitely, Iowa only slightly so), whether or not those games were home or on the road, early in the year or late.

 

[MrGee]

it's been kind of discussed in some threads, but let's put it together here. What are your thoughts for how the season plays out

a) win one of three, finish 7-5; okay season, need bowl win to be considered good season

b) win two of three, finish 8-4; Good season, very good if a bowl win.

c) win three of three, finish 9-3; Outstanding season, bowl win is icing on cake.

d) lose all three; Would consider the season somewhat a disappointment, but not failure. All coaches get a pass in year one. Need a bowl win to take some sting off and have some momentum in off-season

Also Noteworthy, our schedule did us no favors. Two P5 teams OOC, plus all the road games to start the year.

Pretty much agree with you

 

[OriginalEther]

I would have to say at least 1-2 (more on that in a sec) to go 7-5.
I'll give a different angle to explain why.

Some time before the season started, I tried to look at current, good head coaches who started out in a similar situation to Narduzzi. That is, being a coordinator taking their first head coaching job at a BCS school. I was able to think of a quite a few, but the names I can remember right now are Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini, and Dan Mullen.
Anyways, all those guys managed to win 1 more regular season game in their first season than the team did in the year before (actually, with the exception of Pelini, that was pretty much all they did; the breakthrough season was year 2). I could find anyone like that who won the same amount or fewer, and still turned out successful.

So, at least with that criteria, Pitt needs to finish 7-5 to give hope for the future.

Back to a more conventional viewpoint, Pitt so far has lost to the 3 best teams they played. Not great, but acceptable
They haven't had any WTF losses (something that plagued Wanny and Chryst every season), so that's actually pretty good.
As others have mentioned, the next three games are against teams around Pitt's level, so Pitt should be expected to muster at least one win.

 

[pittfan67]

Don't bet on Pitt getting a bowl bid if they lose out and finish 6-6.

 

[OriginalEther]

Don't bet on Pitt getting a bowl bid if they lose out and finish 6-6.

With 40 bowls, they will.
Even some 5-7 teams will get to go bowling this year.

 

[Pittx9]

With 40 bowls, they will.
Even some 5-7 teams will get to go bowling this year.

They may decline it though. There is no way a single person in that program would feel good about losing their last 5. Enough so, that Narduzzi may look at it as a reward that they didn't earn. For them to lose their last 3 though, they would have to all of a sudden play much, much worse than they did these past 2 losses. I mean people really need to put those games into perspective, Pitt wasn't awful, they made a few mistakes. Against teams that good, one mistake and you're probably done.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There's a lot to take from it. Our season, so far, has been very "Penn State-esque." We beat all the bad teams and lost to all the good teams. PSU has been doing that for over a decade. Now, that is still somewhat of an improvement because all other Pitt teams have at least 1 WTF loss.

But these last 3 games are against 3 good teams, 3 bowl teams who we are competing with to land in a Tier 2 bowl game. If Narduzzi wins these last 3, it is a sign that we have a very positive future and that he is an excellent coach. 9-3 with being underdogs in 7 games would be simply incredible. 8-4 is still very good.

 

[OriginalEther]

They may decline it though. There is no way a single person in that program would feel good about losing their last 5. Enough so, that Narduzzi may look at it as a reward that they didn't earn.

I doubt it.

How many programs have turned down a bid?
Only one I can think of was Notre dame, and I think there was some sort of turmoil with them in the first place.

If anything, pitt and narduzzi will accept just to get those 15 extra practices, which is something a new regime is going to want anyways.

 

[Jeffburgh]

I doubt it.

How many programs have turned down a bid?
Only one I can think of was Notre dame, and I think there was some sort of turmoil with them in the first place.

If anything, pitt and narduzzi will accept just to get those 15 extra practices, which is something a new regime is going to want anyways.[/QUOTE
]
It would kill them to turn down a bowl game.
These kids bust their tails, win or lose and deserve the trip.
Would really hurt recruiting to not be in a bowl and turn it down, recruits would see that and the current players would not be as positive about the program.

 

[Jeffburgh]

it's been kind of discussed in some threads, but let's put it together here. What are your thoughts for how the season plays out

a) win one of three, finish 7-5; okay season, need bowl win to be considered good season

b) win two of three, finish 8-4; Good season, very good if a bowl win.

c) win three of three, finish 9-3; Outstanding season, bowl win is icing on cake.

d) lose all three; Would consider the season somewhat a disappointment, but not failure. All coaches get a pass in year one. Need a bowl win to take some sting off and have some momentum in off-season

Also Noteworthy, our schedule did us no favors. Two P5 teams OOC, plus all the road games to start the year.

I mostly agree. I am a big Duzz guy, but we are going to see a lot about him over the next four games, for better or for worse.

Losing out would absolutely suppress the enthusiasm after such a great start.
Winning one would be the bare minimum to maintain most of the enthusiasm.
Two or more wins and the program has real positive momentum.

I have a hard time not seeing this team pull out at least one of the last three games.

 

[JSSTartan]

8 and 4 in the regular season would be a big step forward considering injuries, new systems, etc.

 

[Pittx9]

Only one I can think of was Notre dame, and I think there was some sort of turmoil with them in the first place.

I think Charlie Weis was already at the end of the road. It was either that or he was just so disgusted that ND was supposed to be really good that year and weren't. I just remember it was definitely Weis who was right in the middle of the decision not to go.