Give me your "Hot Take" for Pitt's 2018 Football Season

[McKee Place]

Reasons to be optimistic and excited. But too many question marks and a tough schedule. We could take some big lumps early, and the team (and fans) could be too discouraged once the manageable games come up on the schedule.

Pickett will have a big target on his back. Defensive coordinators know he's key and will devise schemes to fool him, and an inexperienced OL probably will struggle to protect him. Mack will help but the receivers are unproven. The running backs are simply pedestrian. Defense is a huge question mark still, but I can only see it being average at best (which would still be a nice improvement but disappointing for year 4 of a defensive oriented HC). Kicking game will be a mixed bag, always have to worry a bit about a new punter.

Intangibles could include Ford, if used creatively, he can provide sparks in key situations. And if our OC shows some life in his game plan now, with an actual talented QB to work with. As with previous Duz years we are still going to have to rely on offense to win most games.

I see winning 6 and hopefully winning a bowl is the high end, unfortunately. Hope they can surprise me.

 

[JED_72]

I am merely hoping for a better W/L record than last year. But same as last year, I'll predict a 5-7 season. And, this year I think we have a better shot at 6-6 than 4-8. Would consider a 7 win regular season "successful".

 

[BuffetParrothead]

IMO we upset the Nitters and UCF.
There's been recent articles in the Lehigh Valley Morning Call a Nitter dedicated Fish Wrapper that PSU/ Nitters and coach Franklin lost alot of players and the learning curve for some players is steep.
On the other hand they say the Nitter OL will be formidable which will help the RB's replace Barkley.
So I say we win on Saturday 9/8 because Franklin isn't good at adjusting to change or adversity as evidenced by his first two years in the Cow Pasture!
I also think the UCF game will be an upset so factor in the other "gimmie wins" and that's where we end up 8-4.

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go PITT & CSU Rams!

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Pitt wins 6 games and both coordinators are replaced

 

[cruzer]

What would surprise me is if the team actually overperformed for once. That said, I'll predict another 6-6 season.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

I think they're on the verge of the next level.

 

[AlFromDadeville]

7-5 is my hope. If one of those 7 wins was week 2 I'd probably take that.
8-4 would be outstanding

They have to make a bowl.

Pickett a good prospect but still vastly inexperienced. Says the right things. But ultimately it is how he plays.

I do think defense is good and ACC schedule is very favorable.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

Pitt wins 6 games and both coordinators are replaced

Another positive post by the Glass Is Empty Empty Souf.

And you add Mt Washington in Pittsburgh will most likely erupt throwing lava over the city, Western PA and Ohio??
That's The Good News For Today- Signed: Souf

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go PITT & CSU Rams!

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Another positive post by the Glass Is Empty Empty Souf.

And you add Mt Washington in Pittsburgh will most likely erupt throwing lava over the city, Western PA and Ohio??
That's The Good News For Today- Signed: Souf

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go PITT & CSU Rams!

It’s my hot take.

Perhaps you think all the projections are wrong .

 

[Pitt69]

Pitt wins 6 games and both coordinators are replaced

From the Cheap Seats; can't comment on the staff, but at this point in time 6-6 may not be optimistic, but it certainly is realistic. Five games in Sept. will tell a lot. Three wins is a must. Four wins means that we beat a currently ranked team, and will at least increase my expectations to seven or possibly even eight wins. At this point, I just hope we can compete with every team on the schedule. H2P

 

[melwood]

to be fair I think many teams would finish 6-6 with this schedule. Not so much the horses being the problem. If we played PSU schedule we would finish 8-4

Whoa, pump the brakes. So we would beat OSU, Mich, Iowa, Mich St., and Wisconsin???
Look, I hate the Nitters as much as the next guy, but I gotta call you out on that last bit.
That being said, I think 7-5 would be a huge step forward for us this year....HTP!!!

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Whoa, pump the brakes. So we would beat OSU, Mich, Iowa, Mich St., and Wisconsin???
Look, I hate the Nitters as much as the next guy, but I gotta call you out on that last bit.
That being said, I think 7-5 would be a huge step forward for us this year....HTP!!!

not all 5, maybe 2.

App State - W
PSU - toss up, but for sake of argument W
Kent State - W
OSU - L, but maybe if at home and Urban still suspended a big upset
Indiana - W
Michigan - L
Rutgers - W
Illinois - W
MI State - W
Iowa - L
Wisky - W
Maryland - W

So that is 9-3

EDIT: I originally said 8-4, so let me edit to say out of PSU, MSU & Wisky, which I had all as wins to win 2 of those 3. So that would make it 8-4 rather than 9-3. I think we could beat PSU (think this will be another barnburner like 2016), not totally sold on Chryst, and MSU just because Narduzzi coached there and it may give an advantage.

 

[joeydavid]

The offense is undervalued due to the all of the new parts and will play over their current S&P+ rating.

The defense will approach a top 25 ranking.

Overall, it will be a successful campaign going 8-4 with a 2nd place finish in the Coastal.

 

[PittFanDan17]

not all 5, maybe 2.

App State - W
PSU - toss up, but for sake of argument W
Kent State - W
OSU - L, but maybe if at home and Urban still suspended a big upset
Indiana - W
Michigan - L
Rutgers - W
Illinois - W
MI State - W
Iowa - L
Wisky - W
Maryland - W

So that is 9-3

EDIT: I originally said 8-4, so let me edit to say out of PSU, MSU & Wisky, which I had all as wins to win 2 of those 3. So that would make it 8-4 rather than 9-3. I think we could beat PSU (think this will be another barnburner like 2016), not totally sold on Chryst, and MSU just because Narduzzi coached there and it may give an advantage.

Just curious, if you have us going 9-3 with THAT schedule, are you predicting us to go 12-0 with OUR schedule???

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Just curious, if you have us going 9-3 with THAT schedule, are you predicting us to go 12-0 with OUR schedule???

uh, follow along.....I said 6-6 with our schedule, 8-4 with the nits.

Here's the detail. I think we would gain 2 wins with Kent State & Indiana.

app state - Albany both a W
Kent State - Central Florida - Central florida so that is an L
OSU - Miami - OSU is probably better than Miami but I have both as L
Indiana - UNC, a wash but we have a thing with UNC so I gave that one to UNC
Michigan - GaTech , both as L
Rutgers - Wake Forest - both as W
Illinois - Syracuse - both as W
MI State - ND (nits play one more conference game) both as W
Iowa - VaTech both as L
Wisky - Virginia both as L
Maryland - Duke both as W

Man, you nitter trolls really need to get a life. Since you're here, nitter, what are your thoughts?

EDIT: That's at least 3 who have jumped to the defense of the PSU schedule. Pretty easy to smoke out the trolls.

 

[SSS811]

uh, follow along.....I said 6-6 with our schedule, 8-4 with the nits.

Man, you nitter trolls really need to get a life. Since you're here, nitter, what are your thoughts?

EDIT: That's at least 3 who have jumped to the defense of the PSU schedule. Pretty easy to smoke out the trolls.

You're not smoking out the "trolls," you're smoking out people with common sense. You have us winning games against Wisconsin, PSU, and Michigan State. 3 teams ranked in the top 11 in the country.

What exactly have you seen that has you pegging these 3 as W's? Realistically, we'd be solid double-digit underdogs to each of them, and already are to PSU.

Honestly, you're either a really good troll, or mentally retarded. I can't figure out which one it is.

 

[Dan1911]

Pitt signs Alabama, Oklahoma, and USC to 10 year home and home series and the locals gush with joy.

 

[pittdan77]

Pretty easy to smoke out the trolls.

How about passing whatever you're using to "smoke out the trolls". You've had enough.

 

[joeydavid]

The Blue/White game doesn't count as a win.

You're not smoking out the "trolls," you're smoking out people with common sense. You have us winning games against Wisconsin, PSU, and Michigan State. 3 teams ranked in the top 11 in the country.

What exactly have you seen that has you pegging these 3 as W's? Realistically, we'd be solid double-digit underdogs to each of them, and already are to PSU.

Honestly, you're either a really good troll, or mentally retarded. I can't figure out which one it is.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

You're not smoking out the "trolls," you're smoking out people with common sense. You have us winning games against Wisconsin, PSU, and Michigan State. 3 teams ranked in the top 11 in the country.

What exactly have you seen that has you pegging these 3 as W's? Realistically, we'd be solid double-digit underdogs to each of them, and already are to PSU.

Honestly, you're either a really good troll, or mentally retarded. I can't figure out which one it is.

right, you're one of the common sense, realist fans, who just happens to defend PSU at every turn while rarely if ever posting anything positive towards Pitt. Gotcha.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

How about passing whatever you're using to "smoke out the trolls". You've had enough.

whatever, just give PSU a NYD bowl if they finish 9-3 with that murderous schedule. Michigan State is so much tougher than ND, and Paul Chryst just strikes fear in my heart when compared to VaTech.

 

[joeydavid]

He hasn't figured out that it's time for another new faux-handle.

right, you're one of the common sense, realist fans, who just happens to defend PSU at every turn while rarely if ever posting anything positive towards Pitt. Gotcha.

 

[cpc247]

I'm curious to hear what other fans think can happen this year that will surprise some people. Whether if that is a big win, player having a huge year, whatever! I will give mine. I will say that Pitt will finish 2nd in the coastal this year behind Miami and get to a bigger bowl game than in past years. We got a favorable in conference schedule and our defense will surprise a lot of people, plus Pickett will hold down the offense and do what he needs to do. I think the big game will be VT at home. We always play them tough and they lost a lot on defense and I'm not sold on their starting QB at all. I'm curious to hear some other hot takes for Pitt!

I would love to agree with you, but I think that the brutal non conference is going to result in higher than normal injury count. That is something Pitt can't sustain. 7-5 better next year.

Hope I'm wrong. Really want to see a big year (9 wins plus) from the D and the offense be good enough to win a game.

H2P.....Penn State 17.....Pitt 24 ...KP game winning drive

 

[Pittstudent313]

I personally think 6-6 is kind , I think 5-7 is where we end up. So unless you pick Pitt to win 9 games or more you are a troll? That sounds like something a true dummy would state, especially after last year. We did lose to UNC that was playing waterboys and intramural flag football players

 

[pittdan77]

I believe it was Dokish who made a great point the other day. If Pitt just wins the games it’s supposed to, eight wins is doable. But that hasn’t happened in a while.

 

[pittbb80]

My hot take is When Pitt meets or exceeds the 6 to 7 win season most of the fan base thinks would be a good year this year those same fans will move the bar and bitch about Narduzzi and claim he under achieved again.

 

[Pittx9]

Has a Narduzzi team been blown out other than OSU?

Miami the week before we beat Clemson in 2016. Close game, weah dropped what could’ve been a td right before the half, then it all went downhill.

 

[McKee Place]

I believe it was Dokish who made a great point the other day. If Pitt just wins the games it’s supposed to, eight wins is doable. But that hasn’t happened in a while.

We tend to win one game we shouldn't, in recent years.

But we still lose 2 or more we should win, or at least had in the bag and overturned it.

Narduzzi minimized those kind of losses the first two years, to his credit but the program found its usual level again last year.

The guy above who wrote "we'll win 5 or 6 and replace our coordinators" is an astute predictor. That is basically our program now.

 

[cashisking884]

I believe it was Dokish who made a great point the other day. If Pitt just wins the games it’s supposed to, eight wins is doable. But that hasn’t happened in a while.

There’s a difference between “should” win and “winnable.”
There aren’t 8 games on the schedule we should win. There are at least 8 games on the schedule that are winnable.

 

[Pittstudent313]

5-7 to 7-5, that's us this year at worst and best

 

[BuffetParrothead]

My hot take is When Pitt meets or exceeds the 6 to 7 win season most of the fan base thinks would be a good year this year those same fans will move the bar and bitch about Narduzzi and claim he under achieved again.

Correct!
That's the way it's supposed work!
The bar is supposed to move higher, and higher, and higher every year.
It's called continuous improvement.
Each time you meet a goal, set a higher more aggressive goal, on and on!
Would you expect Narduzzi to set 6 or 7 wins as his high water mark?
You do this until the program is undefeated, wins the NC, and at that time you set a goal of repeating the undefeated season and winning the NC!!
Noone gets tired of winning!
That's how you achieve excellence!

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go PITT & CSU Rams!

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

See thread on noodling on Sagarin ratings for additional perspective.

 

[buckage]

Kenny Pickett will struggle in his first year of starting, to the point fans call for his benching.

The defense will be the strength this year.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

If the team strength is the same as last year overall we predict 5-7. If the team's overall strength out of the gate matches the level of the average of the last 5 games of last season (improved D and Pickett effect over last 2 games) we predict 7-5 to 8-4. If we start at the very end of last season (Miami game) level and improve above that level as the season goes on then 9-10 wins is possible.

So, the real question is whether we have dropped back from where we were at season's end to where we were on average last season overall, or whether that is our starting point, or somewhere in between. Vegas, Sagarin and other prognosticators think we have dropped back and that is why they predict 5-7. Time will tell.

 

[steelhead52]

I think the secondary will be good. I'm a little concerned about depth on DL. I think Kenny will do fine. He's a gamer with instincts, and he is putting in the extra time and study to succeed. My biggest concern as is everyones is the OL. Its a must to keep Kenny healthy. I can see 7 wins but as with most teams struggling with depth, being injury free is key. If all goes well, this offense will improve as the year goes on.

The Penn State game will be interesting. We hit them early of course. They will have 8 new starters on defense and recently lost two potential starting DEs giving up ball due to lingering injuries. On offense, they lost Barkley, Hamilton, and Gesicki, and also Moorehead. I have no idea what their offense will look like. On the other hand, we are putting together a mostly new OL and have a QB with little starting experience. It will be an interesting matchup and I think it could be a surprisingly close game.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I think the secondary will be good. I'm a little concerned about depth on DL. I think Kenny will do fine. He's a gamer with instincts, and he is putting in the extra time and study to succeed. My biggest concern as is everyones is the OL. Its a must to keep Kenny healthy. I can see 7 wins but as with most teams struggling with depth, being injury free is key. If all goes well, this offense will improve as the year goes on.

The Penn State game will be interesting. We hit them early of course. They will have 8 new starters on defense and recently lost two potential starting DEs giving up ball due to lingering injuries. On offense, they lost Barkley, Hamilton, and Gesicki, and also Moorehead. I have no idea what their offense will look like. On the other hand, we are putting together a mostly new OL and have a QB with little starting experience. It will be an interesting matchup and I think it could be a surprisingly close game.

FWIW, Herbie with his PSU crush thinks Miles Sanders will be the equal of Barkley and McSorley will win the Heisman.

 

[pittbb80]

Very interesting thread to read again

Not calling anybody out but wonder if the fans who though the team would win at most six games consider this season a success and have changed their views of the staff.

As an aside Pitt would beat Wisconsin and MSU and most of the fat 10 teams

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Very interesting thread to read again

Not calling anybody out but wonder if the fans who though the team would win at most six games consider this season a success and have changed their views of the staff.

As an aside Pitt would beat Wisconsin and MSU and most of the fat 10 teams

Hypotheticals are silly

The season is better than I expected, by a game so far. (Vt falling off a cliff being the difference thus far)
Hopefully by 2 after Saturday

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Very interesting thread to read again

Not calling anybody out but wonder if the fans who though the team would win at most six games consider this season a success and have changed their views of the staff.

As an aside Pitt would beat Wisconsin and MSU and most of the fat 10 teams

I predicted 5-7 and clearly underestimated the power of having so many seniors starting, including four fifth year senior offensive linemen. I also think it's helped that Chryst, Chaney, Canada, and Watson run a lot of the same plays instead of rebooting too much. I also assumed our divsion would be better than it has been.

 

[HailToPitt725]

We go undefeated, untied, and unscored upon. Pickett’s so good, he has a statue of him striking the Heisman pose by mid-season. Penn State drops us for 2019 out of shame and Notre Dame joins the ACC full-time out of guilt. Saban retires after Shocky and Paris Ford run laps around the Crimson Tide in the national championship.

These are hot takes, correct?

I was off just a tad bit on mine.