This is going to be a long one, so bear with me. And if someone has done this already in the past and I wasted an hour or two, oh well.
Was bored working today and thinking about the recent morning Pitt's on recruiting success by stars, and decided to look at Duzz's recruiting success by class. So I built the following scoring system for each Pitt recruit based on their success solely at Pitt and used it to score every high school recruit in the Duzz era (up through class of 2020 - not enough data yet for class of 2021 and beyond for worthwhile results). This scoring system is far from perfect but it came out fairly well when compared with the eye test. The scoring system was as follows:
Total games played at Pitt/12 = 1 point
Total games started at Pitt/12 = 2 points
Each year receiving conference accolades (i.e. 1st, 2nd, 3rd or Hon. Mention ACC) = 5 points
Each year receiving national accolades (All American status or other national honor) = 10 points
Each year receiving a national award (Heisman Finalist, Biletnikoff, etc) = 20 points
Getting drafted = 10 points
Getting drafted in the 1st round = 20 points
I know I could have gone more granular with awards and such, but wanted to keep it simple enough. Anyway, I applied this to each recruit in each class between 2015-2020 to see how each class stacks up, and how it compares to the rivals rankings for that year. Also, I grouped recruits into 3 categories based on how many points they got over their Pitt careers: Stars (more than 15 points total), Contributors (more than 3 points but less than 15 points) and Busts (less than 3 points). If a player is still on Pitt in 2023, even if he has less than 3 points I do not consider them a bust. Here is the data I found for each class:
2015 - 15 recruits, including two 4-stars and five 2-stars:
Mean score - 10.16 (2/6)
Number of Stars- 3 (20%)
Number of Busts- 6 (40%)
Biggest Star- Jordan Whitehead (48 points)
Biggest Bust: Alex Paulina (5.7 Rivals, 0 points)
2016 - 24 recruits, five 4-stars and three 2-stars
Mean score - 9.76 (3/6)
Number of Stars - 5 (21%)
Number of Busts - 10 (42%)
Biggest Star - Patrick Jones (53 points)
Biggest Bust - Kaezon Pugh/George Hill (5.8 Rivals, 0 points)
2017 - 24 recruits, three 4-stars and two 2-stars
Mean score - 14.06 (1/6)
Number of Stars - 8 (33%)
Number of Busts - 9 (38%)
Biggest Star - Kenny Pickett (83 points - unsurprisingly the highest score of all recruits)
Biggest Bust - Charles Reeves (5.8 Rivals, 0 points)
2018 - 20 recruits, one 4-star and zero 2-stars
Mean score - 5.44 (5/6) (can still improve)
Number of Stars (could still go up) - 3 (15%)
Number of Busts - 9 (45%)
Biggest Star - Erick Hallett (35 points)
Biggest Bust - Mychale Salahuddin (5.9 Rivals, 0 points)
2019 - 19 recruits, one 4-star and three 2-stars
Mean score - 9.04 (4/6) (can still improve)
Number of Stars (could still go up) - 3 (11%)
Number of Busts (could still go up) - 6 (32%)
Biggest Star - Calijah Kancey (83 points)
Biggest Bust - Davis Beville (5.8 Rivals, 1 point)
2020 - 18 recruits, three 4-stars and two 2-stars
Mean score - 4.94 (6/6) (will definitely improve)
Number of Stars (could still go up) - 2 (11%)
Number of Busts (could still go up) - 6 (33%)
Biggest Star - Jordan Addison (56 points) *does not include points for getting drafted
Biggest Bust - Jaylon Barden (Rivals 5.7, 2 points)
This system is definitely not perfect - for example it considers Nick Patti barely a bust when he did exactly what Pitt needed him to do for 4 years. But I think it does a good job showing what years were successful and providing some interesting data. Happy to hear suggested tweaks. Cheers to June!
Was bored working today and thinking about the recent morning Pitt's on recruiting success by stars, and decided to look at Duzz's recruiting success by class. So I built the following scoring system for each Pitt recruit based on their success solely at Pitt and used it to score every high school recruit in the Duzz era (up through class of 2020 - not enough data yet for class of 2021 and beyond for worthwhile results). This scoring system is far from perfect but it came out fairly well when compared with the eye test. The scoring system was as follows:
Total games played at Pitt/12 = 1 point
Total games started at Pitt/12 = 2 points
Each year receiving conference accolades (i.e. 1st, 2nd, 3rd or Hon. Mention ACC) = 5 points
Each year receiving national accolades (All American status or other national honor) = 10 points
Each year receiving a national award (Heisman Finalist, Biletnikoff, etc) = 20 points
Getting drafted = 10 points
Getting drafted in the 1st round = 20 points
I know I could have gone more granular with awards and such, but wanted to keep it simple enough. Anyway, I applied this to each recruit in each class between 2015-2020 to see how each class stacks up, and how it compares to the rivals rankings for that year. Also, I grouped recruits into 3 categories based on how many points they got over their Pitt careers: Stars (more than 15 points total), Contributors (more than 3 points but less than 15 points) and Busts (less than 3 points). If a player is still on Pitt in 2023, even if he has less than 3 points I do not consider them a bust. Here is the data I found for each class:
2015 - 15 recruits, including two 4-stars and five 2-stars:
Mean score - 10.16 (2/6)
Number of Stars- 3 (20%)
Number of Busts- 6 (40%)
Biggest Star- Jordan Whitehead (48 points)
Biggest Bust: Alex Paulina (5.7 Rivals, 0 points)
2016 - 24 recruits, five 4-stars and three 2-stars
Mean score - 9.76 (3/6)
Number of Stars - 5 (21%)
Number of Busts - 10 (42%)
Biggest Star - Patrick Jones (53 points)
Biggest Bust - Kaezon Pugh/George Hill (5.8 Rivals, 0 points)
2017 - 24 recruits, three 4-stars and two 2-stars
Mean score - 14.06 (1/6)
Number of Stars - 8 (33%)
Number of Busts - 9 (38%)
Biggest Star - Kenny Pickett (83 points - unsurprisingly the highest score of all recruits)
Biggest Bust - Charles Reeves (5.8 Rivals, 0 points)
2018 - 20 recruits, one 4-star and zero 2-stars
Mean score - 5.44 (5/6) (can still improve)
Number of Stars (could still go up) - 3 (15%)
Number of Busts - 9 (45%)
Biggest Star - Erick Hallett (35 points)
Biggest Bust - Mychale Salahuddin (5.9 Rivals, 0 points)
2019 - 19 recruits, one 4-star and three 2-stars
Mean score - 9.04 (4/6) (can still improve)
Number of Stars (could still go up) - 3 (11%)
Number of Busts (could still go up) - 6 (32%)
Biggest Star - Calijah Kancey (83 points)
Biggest Bust - Davis Beville (5.8 Rivals, 1 point)
2020 - 18 recruits, three 4-stars and two 2-stars
Mean score - 4.94 (6/6) (will definitely improve)
Number of Stars (could still go up) - 2 (11%)
Number of Busts (could still go up) - 6 (33%)
Biggest Star - Jordan Addison (56 points) *does not include points for getting drafted
Biggest Bust - Jaylon Barden (Rivals 5.7, 2 points)
This system is definitely not perfect - for example it considers Nick Patti barely a bust when he did exactly what Pitt needed him to do for 4 years. But I think it does a good job showing what years were successful and providing some interesting data. Happy to hear suggested tweaks. Cheers to June!
