Have to show me again this week

[gopitt1976]

What team is going to show up this week? A championship team and great teams win a game this week. Can the offense step up? Can they stop shooting themselves in the foot. Cab they string some wins together while being ranked?

Not only us fans but a lot of others will be watching this week to see if Pitt can win and break this cycle of stagnation and put a consistent winner on the field. Many people want to like Pitt but won't until they keep winning.

I like the Panthers tomorrow

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Keys to victory?
Punt more than 30 yds, stop missing makeable kicks, stop shooting self(us) in foot, stop dropping 5 yd passes.
Pitt has started out 3-0 once in the last 10yrs.
So I guess Ville +2.5 the pick.

 

[cashisking884]

Show what “again”? “Championship teams” and “great teams”? What exactly is the expectation for this team and why?

 

[joeydavid]

The offensive is going to be a evolution this season imo. They pretty much picked up where they left off last year but have potential young weapons that need more game experience.

It does seem more jet sweeps and vertical shots will help the passing game.

Izzy almost needs to be the answer in the run game.

The defense is stacked. Still unfortunate that it's not going to be 100% this year. It could have been really special.

 

[pittdan77]

Show what “again”? “Championship teams” and “great teams”? What exactly is the expectation for this team and why?

Same post'er, different handle, same BS. This guy thinks Louisville is some kind of litmus test for greatness.

 

[jrnPitt]

Same post'er, different handle, same BS. This guy thinks Louisville is some kind of litmus test for greatness.

Louisville is a litmus test for the Pitt offense. If we can't put up a solid 30 plus points this week Pitt will lose this game.

 

[Pittisit4me]

Not sure about this game. That said, I have zero faith that if they can beat Louisville they can beat NC ST the following week. I think there is no way that a Pat Narduzzi coached Pitt team will be 4-0 after the NC ST game. They will lose at least one of the next two. They will probably play one good spirited game, and one will be like Syracuse where they did everything possible to earn a loss, but, the Cuse was simply not good enough to take advantage. Hate to be negative, but, under Narduzzi, there is ample evidence to expect what I predict will come to pass.

 

[gopitt1976]

Wow! They got it done. I think the D is for real. i has some work to do. Big win. Take the next step next weekend?

 

[Millerton]

The offensive is going to be a evolution this season imo. They pretty much picked up where they left off last year but have potential young weapons that need more game experience.

It does seem more jet sweeps and vertical shots will help the passing game.

Izzy almost needs to be the answer in the run game.

The defense is stacked. Still unfortunate that it's not going to be 100% this year. It could have been really special.

Where was Carter and I would like to see Sibley get some carries too

 

[joeydavid]

Where was Carter and I would like to see Sibley get some carries too

Think Carter is still hurt. I don't get Sibley's lack of carries.

 

[pittdan77]

Louisville is a litmus test for the Pitt offense. If we can't put up a solid 30 plus points this week Pitt will lose this game.

You were saying?

 

[President Stache]

What team is going to show up this week? A championship team and great teams win a game this week. Can the offense step up? Can they stop shooting themselves in the foot. Cab they string some wins together while being ranked?

Not only us fans but a lot of others will be watching this week to see if Pitt can win and break this cycle of stagnation and put a consistent winner on the field. Many people want to like Pitt but won't until they keep winning.

I like the Panthers tomorrow

We simply don’t have a great or even very good offense.
The question is can our defense continue to put out championship type games every week and lead us to victory despite a very pedestrian offense and can the offense uptick enough to lead us to wins against the upper eschelon te

 

[cashisking884]

We simply don’t have a great or even very good offense.
The question is can our defense continue to put out championship type games every week and lead us to victory despite a very pedestrian offense and can the offense uptick enough to lead us to wins against the upper eschelon te

Probably not.
Connelly released some of the S&P+ post-game win expectancy for this past week. We were at 32%. That’s bad.

There is no team that can consistently win playing that poorly. Lady Luck is going to stop smiling on us. The offense has to do something or eventually the damn is going to break.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Connelly released some of the S&P+ post-game win expectancy for this past week. We were at 32%. That’s bad.

I saw that, and I don't see how that's even theoretically possible. That's a rating system that is based in large part on yards gained. And we outgained Louisville 376-223. If you look at games where one team has nearly 70% more yards gained than the other the team with the more yards wins that game a very high percentage of the time. And yeah, we ran more plays than they did, but we still outgained them in yards per play 4.8 - 4.4, so again, advantage to us. They also had one more turnover than we did, and teams that win the turnover battle tend to win games. And it's not like any of our scores were kind of "random" scores, like say we had returned one of the interceptions for a touchdown or we had run a kick back for a touchdown were you could say that we got points that you just wouldn't normally expect to get.

In short, if you give me the game stats from yesterdays game without giving me the game score, you would assume that Pitt won the game, in fact won the game reasonably easily. And if someone shows you those numbers and then offers to give you the team with Pitt's numbers at 2-1 odds you jump all over that with both feet.

 

[cashisking884]

I saw that, and I don't see how that's even theoretically possible. That's a rating system that is based in large part on yards gained. And we outgained Louisville 376-223. If you look at games where one team has nearly 70% more yards gained than the other the team with the more yards wins that game a very high percentage of the time. And yeah, we ran more plays than they did, but we still outgained them in yards per play 4.8 - 4.4, so again, advantage to us. They also had one more turnover than we did, and teams that win the turnover battle tend to win games. And it's not like any of our scores were kind of "random" scores, like say we had returned one of the interceptions for a touchdown or we had run a kick back for a touchdown were you could say that we got points that you just wouldn't normally expect to get.

In short, if you give me the game stats from yesterdays game without giving me the game score, you would assume that Pitt won the game, in fact won the game reasonably easily. And if someone shows you those numbers and then offers to give you the team with Pitt's numbers at 2-1 odds you jump all over that with both feet.

Probably because we actually did win the turnover battle. All advanced analytic models view turnovers as very lucky. You saw it in our game. One controversial referee call and it’s a fumble. One horrible throw that doesn’t lead their WR into the open space but instead goes behind him to our DB, and it’s an INT.

I’m sure explosiveness is probably a factor as well. That’s one of his 5 true factors, and I think we had one explosive play all game (the knee not down play).

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Probably because we actually did win the turnover battle. All advanced analytic models view turnovers as very lucky. You saw it in our game. One controversial referee call and it’s a fumble. One horrible throw that doesn’t lead their WR into the open space but instead goes behind him to our DB, and it’s an INT.

I agree that at some level turnovers do involve luck. But way more wrt fumble recoveries than interceptions. For instance their QB made a bad throw that led to an interception not so much because of luck, but because he just isn't a very good quarterback. And if you were to magically replay the game over and over that fact isn't going to change. No matter what, he's likely to throw interceptions. Because our defense is pretty good and he, well, isn't.

On the other hand, Pickett fumbles the ball on the one play when scrambling but the ball just went straight down right to where he was already falling, so he gets an easy recovery. If the ball gets knocked out a little to the side or to where he isn't already falling and who knows who recovers it. Things like that involve a lot more luck and a lot more "which way is the ball going to bounce".

I know you aren't going to get it, but I would seriously like to know what is going on in the "nuts and bolts" of his system that leads it to conclude that after the fact we only had a 32% chance to win that game. Because that just logically doesn't make any sense to me. Had he said it was 55-45 or 50-50 or something along those lines then to me that would make sense. 68-32 in favor of Louisville doesn't, or even anything close to that.

 

[cashisking884]

I agree that at some level turnovers do involve luck. But way more wrt fumble recoveries than interceptions. For instance their QB made a bad throw that led to an interception not so much because of luck, but because he just isn't a very good quarterback. And if you were to magically replay the game over and over that fact isn't going to change. No matter what, he's likely to throw interceptions. Because our defense is pretty good and he, well, isn't.

On the other hand, Pickett fumbles the ball on the one play when scrambling but the ball just went straight down right to where he was already falling, so he gets an easy recovery. If the ball gets knocked out a little to the side or to where he isn't already falling and who knows who recovers it. Things like that involve a lot more luck and a lot more "which way is the ball going to bounce".

I know you aren't going to get it, but I would seriously like to know what is going on in the "nuts and bolts" of his system that leads it to conclude that after the fact we only had a 32% chance to win that game. Because that just logically doesn't make any sense to me. Had he said it was 55-45 or 50-50 or something along those lines then to me that would make sense. 68-32 in favor of Louisville doesn't, or even anything close to that.

But even with inaccurate QBs that make dumb throws, there’s a ton of luck.

That Pickett pass to Addison should have been an INT. It was pure luck it wasn’t. Throw that pass 10 times and it’s picked 8 out of 10 times and we don’t score a TD on the drive.

 

[ThePanthers]

So getting interceptions are pure luck except when it doesn't then its pure luck.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

But even with inaccurate QBs that make dumb throws, there’s a ton of luck.

I absolutely agree. On an individual pass level. But the difference is that a team might fumble the ball two or three times a game, making it a lot more likely that the ball will bounce the right or wrong way more often than you would expect. But quarterbacks throw lots of passes a game. Pickett threw 38 of them yesterday. There is a far, far smaller chance that dumb luck falls the wrong way an inordinate amount of times the more times the event occurs.

On the whole, fumble recoveries are likely far more random than interceptions, because the chances for fumble recoveries are much smaller than the chances for interceptions.

 

[cashisking884]

So getting interceptions are pure luck except when it doesn't then its pure luck.

No

 

[gary2]

So getting interceptions are pure luck except when it doesn't then its pure luck.

I don't see how anyone looking at this box score could think Pitt was the lucky team.

Pitt 23 Louisville 20 Box Score PDF - Pitt Panthers #H2P

Pitt 23 Louisville 20 Box Score PDF

pittsburghpanthers.com

 

[cashisking884]

I don't see how anyone looking at this box score could think Pitt was the lucky team.

Pitt 23 Louisville 20 Box Score PDF - Pitt Panthers #H2P

Pitt 23 Louisville 20 Box Score PDF

pittsburghpanthers.com

Well if it makes you feel better, no one did. A computer did.

 

[President Stache]

Probably not.
Connelly released some of the S&P+ post-game win expectancy for this past week. We were at 32%. That’s bad.

There is no team that can consistently win playing that poorly. Lady Luck is going to stop smiling on us. The offense has to do something or eventually the damn is going to break.

Completely agree. There are some signs we can be efficient in offense. I think it’s clear Izzy has the most game breaking ability rushing, and we need some more big plays in the passing game. It’s tough sledding, period. Same story for picketts four years. We need to win the nail biters, and every game IS a nail biter. Luckily, we are used to it, so maybe better equipped than most??

 

[BPKY]

I don't see how anyone looking at this box score could think Pitt was the lucky team.

Pitt 23 Louisville 20 Box Score PDF - Pitt Panthers #H2P

Pitt 23 Louisville 20 Box Score PDF

pittsburghpanthers.com

The offense has shot itself in the foot the last two games. Dropped passes. Pedestrian running attack.

Barring injuries, the O will likely improve over the season. Of course, the longer the O continues to drop passes and make mistakes, it becomes an issue of just not being very good. It's too early to say that yet. Syracuse has a good secondary and Louisville is no slouch. Sooner or later, the D will play a complete game and our passing game will finally click. Then ... look out.

Our D can limit any team to 20 points. We'll be in every game.