Part 1
There's no way around it - this season sucks. After the wins over PSU and Clemson last year, there was optimism that the program would take another step forward. Instead, Pitt has ostensibly taken a major step back - underwhelming on the field and, at times, absolutely nonsensical personnel decisions. While there is no one singular reason for this season's failure, I believe the greatest contributing factor is the lack of productivity from players brought in in the 2013 and 2014 recruiting cycles. Pitt is not a blue blood. They can't bring in 4 and 5 star recruits to replace outgoing productivity immediately. Pitt's bread and butter has to be bringing kids in in balanced recruiting classes that aren't depended on for productivity until their Junior/RS Junior/Senior/RS Senior. That isn't to say freshmen and sophomores shouldn't be expected to produce if they get the opportunity. Rather, the general goal should be to get the positional depth in good enough shape to where it isn't an absolute necessity to lean on three star, largely undeveloped underclassmen to come onto the field and contribute immediately.
Which leads me to discuss how the failures of the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes (and to a lesser extent the 2015 recruiting class) put Pitt in the position to largely fail this year. Again, this doesn't excuse the failures of the current coaching staff. At the same time, the staff can only do so much with the personnel it has at its disposal. As a guide, I broke down what players in the recruiting class could be considered a "hit," meaning they developed into a relatively solid contributor. Think of "hit" in baseball terms - that player essentially has a positive WAR while playing for Pitt (in my opinion).
Let's look at the 2013 recruiting class first. The 2013 class was actually pretty solid. I consider 12 out of the 27 players brought in to be "hits" - Dorian Johnson, Boyd, Conner, Galambos, Soto, Parrish, Tyrique Jarrett, Alex Officer, Jester Weah, Ryan Winslow, and Chris Blewitt. Twelve players, for various reasons, left the program prior to graduation. The issue is of those "hits," only three remain. The major offensive miss Pitt is feeling this year is at QB. Tra'von Chapman was the only QB brought in, and he was kicked off the team. Only one serviceable lineman remains (Officer), as JJS's injury has made him a nonfactor. Zero tight ends remain (Edwards is a DE and a nonfactor at any rate). On defense, no recruiting "hits" remain. At defensive end, zero remain. Overall, 0/4 DE recruits that year (Conner, Soto, Luke MacLean, and Justin Moody) ever contributed at DE at Pitt. Zero DT recruits remain with Taleni being dismissed. Only one LB was recruited, Galambos, and he graduated, so zero LB recruits remain. Both DB recruits, Titus Howard and Terrish Webb, were misses. Howard left the program early, and Terrish Webb was, well, we saw what he was last year. Like I said, not a terrible class. However, two things stick out: (1) the lack of remaining redshirt seniors; and (2) the amount of recruits that left early causing holes in the depth chart.
A lot of these misses could have been mitigated by a strong recruiting cycle in 2014. However, this is the recruiting class most responsible for putting Pitt in the situation it is in today. Of the 23 recruits signed, only five (5!) can be considered a hit: Chris James, Bookser, Maddox, O'Neill, and Ollison. 10 left the program early, including James. Again, Pitt swung and missed at QB with Adam Bertke. Only one of three lineman - Bookser - can be considered a "hit." The other "hit" lineman, O'Neill, was a TE rectuit. Since no other TE was recruited, Pitt has zero TEs from the 2014 recruiting cycle. Only 1/3 WRs remain (zero "hits"), and he was converted into a linebacker. Defensively, only one DE recruit remains, and he was converted into a DT (Roy). So this is a second class contributing zero DEs to the 2017 roster. Both DT's brought in, Dintino and Herndon, have switched positions and their contributions have been minimal. Again, there are no DT's brought in that remain on the roster as a contributing DT. At linebacker, Pitt went 0/3. Two do remain, but one, Folston, is now a subpar DE and Wirginis is redshirting. So again, zero contributors at that position this year. Pitt took five DBs in this class. Only one, Maddox, can be considered a "hit." Jalen Williams is now LB depth. Briggs is overmatched at this level. Motley has never done anything in his time at Pitt. Amara left the program early. While four remain, only has developed into any sort of player.
In summary, the two classes that should be the backbone of the team have resulted in: 17 "hits" out of the 50 recruits (34%). Defensively, players leaving the program early and the lack of "hits" have been felt the most in the front seven. 0/7 of the players brought in to play DE were a "hit" at DE, and none are still on the roster as a DE. 0/4 DTs brought in remain on the team as a contributor at the position. Only 1/4 LBs were a "hit," and he wasn't able to redshirt so he's graduated. I guess there's still hope for Wirginis, but I'm not holding my breath. Because of those lack of hits, Pitt is forced to start a transfer (looking like a "miss") and a JUCO ("miss") at DE with no depth behind them other than redshirt freshman and Folston (As an aside, the recruiting misses at DE last year will probably be felt in 2020). At DT, Pitt's only contributor from 2013-2014 is Shane Roy, and he's behind Watts, Camp, and probably Carter at this point (all look like recruiting "hits" at this early point). Watts, Camp, Carter have actually held their own pretty well this year, and this group is the strongest of the front seven. At LB...oof. The only player left from these classes is Wirginis, and he isn't playing this year. Which leaves Pitt with: a converted WR, an outside linebacker (RS Sophomore) starting in the middle, and a former walk-on defensive back starting this year. That's...terrible. While there's hope for some of the young depth at this position, the fact this staff had to turn to Zeise and Idowu to shore up the position indicates how poorly LBs were recruited.
At DB, Pitt was 1/7. The interesting issue with DBs hasn't been leaving the program early (only Howard and Amara did); rather, they haven't developed into "hits" by their junior and senior seasons. Four remain from 2014 - Maddox, J. Williams, Briggs, and Motley - but only one has developed into a solid contributor.
Offensively, the biggest failure is at QB. Pitt effectively went two recruiting cycles 2013-2014, without bringing a QB. Bringing in Peterman helped diminish the effect of this failure, but the lack of developing QBs on the roster meant Pitt had to hit a home run in 2015 or 2016, or bring in a capable transfer to replace Peterman. Obviously, that didn't happen. Browne was brought in as a hopeful short term bridge until 2018, but that didn't pan out, so the lack of a QB in those two classes has put Pitt in the position it is in today.
At the other positions, both remaining RBs from 2013-2014 have been disappointing this year. At WR, only one player remains from the two recruiting classes (Weah, whose propensity for dropping the ball is well chronicled). The optimism here is the development of Mathews, Ffrench, and the underclassmen. Araujo-Lopes has also been a surprise, and will probably be the top WR next year, allowing the 2017 class to develop more. Zero tight ends remain from these classes, forcing the staff to bring in Flanagan as a grad transfer so multiple freshmen wouldn't be forced to play (I'm cognizant of the misses in 2016 by the current staff, but it would still be unreliable to depend on RS freshman/true sophomores). On the offensive line, only 3/8 remain as original OL recruits. There were effectively 4 "hits" (including O'Neill's conversion), but one left as a senior (DoJo) and the rest have been seemingly ineffective. Next year could be rough. While Bookser, O'Neill, and Morrisey will return, they'll likely need multiple RS freshmen or sophomores to contribute.
When all of this is taken together, it makes sense why Pitt is currently sitting at 2-5. The team is devoid of upperclassmen, and the previous staff missed on a lot of recruits they brought in. This staff has tried to plug the holes with grad transfers (Browne, Flanagan, and Hodges), but that hasn't had the positive effect most hoped it would. On top of that, their schedule hasn't done them any favors - PSU, OK State, Georgia Tech, and NC State are all good football teams (Tech in particular is two plays away from being undefeated).
There's no way around it - this season sucks. After the wins over PSU and Clemson last year, there was optimism that the program would take another step forward. Instead, Pitt has ostensibly taken a major step back - underwhelming on the field and, at times, absolutely nonsensical personnel decisions. While there is no one singular reason for this season's failure, I believe the greatest contributing factor is the lack of productivity from players brought in in the 2013 and 2014 recruiting cycles. Pitt is not a blue blood. They can't bring in 4 and 5 star recruits to replace outgoing productivity immediately. Pitt's bread and butter has to be bringing kids in in balanced recruiting classes that aren't depended on for productivity until their Junior/RS Junior/Senior/RS Senior. That isn't to say freshmen and sophomores shouldn't be expected to produce if they get the opportunity. Rather, the general goal should be to get the positional depth in good enough shape to where it isn't an absolute necessity to lean on three star, largely undeveloped underclassmen to come onto the field and contribute immediately.
Which leads me to discuss how the failures of the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes (and to a lesser extent the 2015 recruiting class) put Pitt in the position to largely fail this year. Again, this doesn't excuse the failures of the current coaching staff. At the same time, the staff can only do so much with the personnel it has at its disposal. As a guide, I broke down what players in the recruiting class could be considered a "hit," meaning they developed into a relatively solid contributor. Think of "hit" in baseball terms - that player essentially has a positive WAR while playing for Pitt (in my opinion).
Let's look at the 2013 recruiting class first. The 2013 class was actually pretty solid. I consider 12 out of the 27 players brought in to be "hits" - Dorian Johnson, Boyd, Conner, Galambos, Soto, Parrish, Tyrique Jarrett, Alex Officer, Jester Weah, Ryan Winslow, and Chris Blewitt. Twelve players, for various reasons, left the program prior to graduation. The issue is of those "hits," only three remain. The major offensive miss Pitt is feeling this year is at QB. Tra'von Chapman was the only QB brought in, and he was kicked off the team. Only one serviceable lineman remains (Officer), as JJS's injury has made him a nonfactor. Zero tight ends remain (Edwards is a DE and a nonfactor at any rate). On defense, no recruiting "hits" remain. At defensive end, zero remain. Overall, 0/4 DE recruits that year (Conner, Soto, Luke MacLean, and Justin Moody) ever contributed at DE at Pitt. Zero DT recruits remain with Taleni being dismissed. Only one LB was recruited, Galambos, and he graduated, so zero LB recruits remain. Both DB recruits, Titus Howard and Terrish Webb, were misses. Howard left the program early, and Terrish Webb was, well, we saw what he was last year. Like I said, not a terrible class. However, two things stick out: (1) the lack of remaining redshirt seniors; and (2) the amount of recruits that left early causing holes in the depth chart.
A lot of these misses could have been mitigated by a strong recruiting cycle in 2014. However, this is the recruiting class most responsible for putting Pitt in the situation it is in today. Of the 23 recruits signed, only five (5!) can be considered a hit: Chris James, Bookser, Maddox, O'Neill, and Ollison. 10 left the program early, including James. Again, Pitt swung and missed at QB with Adam Bertke. Only one of three lineman - Bookser - can be considered a "hit." The other "hit" lineman, O'Neill, was a TE rectuit. Since no other TE was recruited, Pitt has zero TEs from the 2014 recruiting cycle. Only 1/3 WRs remain (zero "hits"), and he was converted into a linebacker. Defensively, only one DE recruit remains, and he was converted into a DT (Roy). So this is a second class contributing zero DEs to the 2017 roster. Both DT's brought in, Dintino and Herndon, have switched positions and their contributions have been minimal. Again, there are no DT's brought in that remain on the roster as a contributing DT. At linebacker, Pitt went 0/3. Two do remain, but one, Folston, is now a subpar DE and Wirginis is redshirting. So again, zero contributors at that position this year. Pitt took five DBs in this class. Only one, Maddox, can be considered a "hit." Jalen Williams is now LB depth. Briggs is overmatched at this level. Motley has never done anything in his time at Pitt. Amara left the program early. While four remain, only has developed into any sort of player.
In summary, the two classes that should be the backbone of the team have resulted in: 17 "hits" out of the 50 recruits (34%). Defensively, players leaving the program early and the lack of "hits" have been felt the most in the front seven. 0/7 of the players brought in to play DE were a "hit" at DE, and none are still on the roster as a DE. 0/4 DTs brought in remain on the team as a contributor at the position. Only 1/4 LBs were a "hit," and he wasn't able to redshirt so he's graduated. I guess there's still hope for Wirginis, but I'm not holding my breath. Because of those lack of hits, Pitt is forced to start a transfer (looking like a "miss") and a JUCO ("miss") at DE with no depth behind them other than redshirt freshman and Folston (As an aside, the recruiting misses at DE last year will probably be felt in 2020). At DT, Pitt's only contributor from 2013-2014 is Shane Roy, and he's behind Watts, Camp, and probably Carter at this point (all look like recruiting "hits" at this early point). Watts, Camp, Carter have actually held their own pretty well this year, and this group is the strongest of the front seven. At LB...oof. The only player left from these classes is Wirginis, and he isn't playing this year. Which leaves Pitt with: a converted WR, an outside linebacker (RS Sophomore) starting in the middle, and a former walk-on defensive back starting this year. That's...terrible. While there's hope for some of the young depth at this position, the fact this staff had to turn to Zeise and Idowu to shore up the position indicates how poorly LBs were recruited.
At DB, Pitt was 1/7. The interesting issue with DBs hasn't been leaving the program early (only Howard and Amara did); rather, they haven't developed into "hits" by their junior and senior seasons. Four remain from 2014 - Maddox, J. Williams, Briggs, and Motley - but only one has developed into a solid contributor.
Offensively, the biggest failure is at QB. Pitt effectively went two recruiting cycles 2013-2014, without bringing a QB. Bringing in Peterman helped diminish the effect of this failure, but the lack of developing QBs on the roster meant Pitt had to hit a home run in 2015 or 2016, or bring in a capable transfer to replace Peterman. Obviously, that didn't happen. Browne was brought in as a hopeful short term bridge until 2018, but that didn't pan out, so the lack of a QB in those two classes has put Pitt in the position it is in today.
At the other positions, both remaining RBs from 2013-2014 have been disappointing this year. At WR, only one player remains from the two recruiting classes (Weah, whose propensity for dropping the ball is well chronicled). The optimism here is the development of Mathews, Ffrench, and the underclassmen. Araujo-Lopes has also been a surprise, and will probably be the top WR next year, allowing the 2017 class to develop more. Zero tight ends remain from these classes, forcing the staff to bring in Flanagan as a grad transfer so multiple freshmen wouldn't be forced to play (I'm cognizant of the misses in 2016 by the current staff, but it would still be unreliable to depend on RS freshman/true sophomores). On the offensive line, only 3/8 remain as original OL recruits. There were effectively 4 "hits" (including O'Neill's conversion), but one left as a senior (DoJo) and the rest have been seemingly ineffective. Next year could be rough. While Bookser, O'Neill, and Morrisey will return, they'll likely need multiple RS freshmen or sophomores to contribute.
When all of this is taken together, it makes sense why Pitt is currently sitting at 2-5. The team is devoid of upperclassmen, and the previous staff missed on a lot of recruits they brought in. This staff has tried to plug the holes with grad transfers (Browne, Flanagan, and Hodges), but that hasn't had the positive effect most hoped it would. On top of that, their schedule hasn't done them any favors - PSU, OK State, Georgia Tech, and NC State are all good football teams (Tech in particular is two plays away from being undefeated).
