I don’t understand why anyone would not kick a fg

[doubleAA's]

When Pitt was in the 2 in the fourth.

I was reading twitter and Zeise commented that it was the only decision. I am perplexed. I never heard of this and I’ve been watching football a really long time.

1. Our offense was inept. We just ran and was stopped.
2. We don’t have a te that can catch. Often you go to a Te in this situation
3. WE WERE LOSING in the 4th qtr. by one point.
4. Our defense was playing well, feeling had to be we would stop them. And we did! Three and out and we got the call back.

THis alone proves it was a successful decision. Story over. How can anyone argue it? It literally makes no sense. We did what you would think you should. It worked out and we got the ball back.

I literally can’t understand how anyone can think with our pathetic offense and Miami’s defense that we should go for it and most likely still be down 10-9 hoping for another stop and some miracle that Pickett can drive the ball back down the field for the same FG attempt as this one. It’s completely dumbfounding.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

4. Our defense was playing well, feeling had to be we would stop them. And we did! Three and out and we got the call back.

If you think that the defense was playing well and that a three and out was likely, then why would giving Miami the ball at it's own one yard line be a bad thing? A three and out is much more likely there than from a "normal" position on the field, and a three and out there basically puts you into field goal range almost as soon as you catch the punt.

 

[pittman71]

If you think that the defense was playing well and that a three and out was likely, then why would giving Miami the ball at it's own one yard line be a bad thing? A three and out is much more likely there than from a "normal" position on the field, and a three and out there basically puts you into field goal range almost as soon as you catch the punt.

it would be a bad thing because instead of being up 2 you would be behind by 1

 

[FireballZ]

If you think that the defense was playing well and that a three and out was likely, then why would giving Miami the ball at it's own one yard line be a bad thing? A three and out is much more likely there than from a "normal" position on the field, and a three and out there basically puts you into field goal range almost as soon as you catch the punt.

Yep - exactly. Not to mention the possibly of a safety would also put you ahead as well if you're stopped.

Do you have more faith in your defense stopping them from their own 1 and getting the ball back for you where you might only need 10 yards to try a FG again, with more clock ran for you? Or do you have more faith in your defense stopping them from a FG attempt after you go up 2 when they get a kick return opportunity coupled with our defenses propensity for PIs? I was shouting for the latter, personally, but can't fault the decision to kick.

Regardless, if our guys catch even half of the drops and our punter doesn't suck, we probably win, anyways.

 

[pittman71]

When Pitt was in the 2 in the fourth.

I was reading twitter and Zeise commented that it was the only decision. I am perplexed. I never heard of this and I’ve been watching football a really long time.

1. Our offense was inept. We just ran and was stopped.
2. We don’t have a te that can catch. Often you go to a Te in this situation
3. WE WERE LOSING in the 4th qtr. by one point.
4. Our defense was playing well, feeling had to be we would stop them. And we did! Three and out and we got the call back.

THis alone proves it was a successful decision. Story over. How can anyone argue it? It literally makes no sense. We did what you would think you should. It worked out and we got the ball back.

I literally can’t understand how anyone can think with our pathetic offense and Miami’s defense that we should go for it and most likely still be down 10-9 hoping for another stop and some miracle that Pickett can drive the ball back down the field for the same FG attempt as this one. It’s completely dumbfounding.

I think this is the result of so many dumb people being given jobs as NFL pundits on television, spouting nonsense daily on networks like ESPN FS1 and NFL network. Also on sports talk radio.

All of their stupidity and crap on a daily basis has filtered down to the public. Another scenario I find dumb is teams going for 2 late in games instead of going for the tie and sending the game to overtime. That is for a different thread though

 

[BFo8]

I think this is the result of so many dumb people being given jobs as NFL pundits on television, spouting nonsense daily on networks like ESPN FS1 and NFL network. Also on sports talk radio.

All of their stupidity and crap on a daily basis has filtered down to the public. Another scenario I find dumb is teams going for 2 late in games instead of going for the tie and sending the game to overtime. That is for a different thread though

Agree about those pundits and TV guys being dumb, but pretty sure most of them would kick the FG there because they don’t understand the math concept.

FTR I’ve asked a couple professional gamblers and bookmakers I know about their opinion and it’s unanimous they should’ve gone for it.

To me this is a situation where for the most part the squares are on the side of kicking and the sharps are more inclined to go for it.

 

[Pitt2006]

If we scored a td we still lose 17-16. Miami wouldn’t have gone for 2.

 

[pittman71]

Agree about those pundits and TV guys being dumb, but pretty sure most of them would kick the FG there because they don’t understand the math concept.

FTR I’ve asked a couple professional gamblers and bookmakers I know about their opinion and it’s unanimous they should’ve gone for it.

To me this is a situation where for the most part the squares are on the side of kicking and the sharps are more inclined to go for it.

Did those gamblers and bookmakers actually watch the entire Pitt game? How Pitt struggled most of the game on offense?

there was no guarantee Pitt would have gotten another chance to get into position to take the lead

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

it would be a bad thing because instead of being up 2 you would be behind by 1

What matters the most is putting yourself in the best position to win the game, not what puts you in the best position to be ahead with seven minutes left to go in the game.

And for the record, I think it's a relatively close call. I understand why you might want to kick there. But aggressive coaches go for it there. Aggressive coaches understand that if you don't make it you still have the other guys backed up at their own goal line. And aggressive coaches who think their defense is pretty good would have no problem with that.

Unfortunately, our head coach is anything but aggressive.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

How Pitt struggled most of the game on offense?

Did you notice what the Miami offense had looked like up until that point?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

FTR I’ve asked a couple professional gamblers and bookmakers I know about their opinion and it’s unanimous they should’ve gone for it.

I know we have discussed the problems with the win odds on the ESPN Gamecast before, but I find it interesting that they had Pitt with the exact same odds to win the game before they kicked the field goal as they had after they kicked it.

 

[BFo8]

Did those gamblers and bookmakers actually watch the entire Pitt game? How Pitt struggled most of the game on offense?

there was no guarantee Pitt would have gotten another chance to get into position to take the lead

It’s not a definitive call by any means, but it is certainly something that should be discussed.

My issue is with the many on here that thought even considering going for it was unheard of. They either aren’t able to comprehend or refuse to consider that going for it would’ve given Pitt a slightly higher probability of winning the game.

 

[pittman71]

Did you notice what the Miami offense had looked like up until that point?

lol but Miami switched quarterbacks

 

[pittman71]

It’s not a definitive call by any means, but it is certainly something that should be discussed.

My issue is with the many on here that thought even considering going for it was unheard of. They either aren’t able to comprehend or refuse to consider that going for it would’ve given Pitt a slightly higher probability of winning the game.

I think watching the game and making decisions based on how the game has been going is more reliable than using generic statistical analysis.

Also Pitt is a poor running team and in short yardage situations you want to have a strong running game

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

lol but Miami switched quarterbacks

Well first of all, it's not like we knew they were going to do that ahead of time. And secondly, isn't the first quarterback playing so poorly that the opponent has to bring in the guy that their coaches think isn't as good as the guy who was struggling generally a good thing?

 

[pittman71]

Well first of all, it's not like we knew they were going to do that ahead of time. And secondly, isn't the first quarterback playing so poorly that the opponent has to bring in the guy that their coaches think isn't as good as the guy who was struggling generally a good thing?

If Miami doesn’t switch quarterbacks Pitt most likely wins 12-10. That decision by the Miami coach obviously was the biggest in the game. If I understand correctly the quarterback who came into the game was actually their original starter from prior games.

don’t know if that is true as I don’t watch Miami

 

[BFo8]

I know we have discussed the problems with the win odds on the ESPN Gamecast before, but I find it interesting that they had Pitt with the exact same odds to win the game before they kicked the field goal as they had after they kicked it.

Here’s one for you, after LSU took over at their own 1 yesterday up 23-13 with 4+ minutes left ESPN had their win probability at 99.3%. I forget the timeout situation, but that one stuck out as particularly stupid to me. They would go broke if they were booking those kind of bets.

I had been following the ingame wagering on Pitt for much of the game, and as usual it was much different than what ESPN had. As to the difference before and after the FG, I actually tend to agree with them to some extent. Pitt’s win probability should have gone up a little, but not by much in my opinion.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If Miami doesn’t switch quarterbacks Pitt most likely wins 12-10. That decision by the Miami coach obviously was the biggest in the game. If I understand correctly the quarterback who came into the game was actually their original starter from prior games.

don’t know if that is true as I don’t watch Miami

Miami has gone back and forth between their quarterbacks this season. They play one until he stinks so bad they can't ignore it anymore, and then they switch to the other. And then they play him until he stinks so bad they can't ignore it anymore, and then they switch back.

Neither one of them is any good.

 

[BFo8]

If Miami doesn’t switch quarterbacks Pitt most likely wins 12-10. That decision by the Miami coach obviously was the biggest in the game. If I understand correctly the quarterback who came into the game was actually their original starter from prior games.

don’t know if that is true as I don’t watch Miami

They are basically interchangeable and Diaz doesn’t really seem to know what he wants to do there. I thought him making the switch was a mistake, and just because it happened to work doesn’t change my opinion.

 

[BFo8]

I think watching the game and making decisions based on how the game has been going is more reliable than using generic statistical analysis.

Also Pitt is a poor running team and in short yardage situations you want to have a strong running game

I think the point a lot of fans don’t understand is even if Pitt gets stopped on the 4th and 1 their probability of winning isn’t all that much worse than it would’ve been by kicking the FG.

If they get the TD the win probability goes way, way up.

Also factoring in is that a FG is no guarantee. It could be blocked, a snap fumbled, and he’d already missed a similar one earlier in the season.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Also factoring in is that a FG is no guarantee. It could be blocked, a snap fumbled, and he’d already missed a similar one earlier in the season.

Until we took the delay of game penalty it was the exact same field goal that he missed against Penn State. One yard line, ball on the left hash. That's why we assumed that they took the delay of game penalty on purpose, to move the ball back and change the angle a little.

 

[pittman71]

I think the point a lot of fans don’t understand is even if Pitt gets stopped on the 4th and 1 their probability of winning isn’t all that much worse than it would’ve been by kicking the FG.

If they get the TD the win probability goes way, way up.

Also factoring in is that a FG is no guarantee. It could be blocked, a snap fumbled, and he’d already missed a similar one earlier in the season.

The biggest issue we have is that we know how bad Pitt’s offense is. First off there is no guarantee they get a touchdown (odds are they don’t) and if they don’t get a touchdown there is no guarantee they get another chance like that to go ahead.

I have never seen a coach pass up a chip shot field goal to go ahead midway through the fourth quarter.

 

[BFo8]

The biggest issue we have is that we know how bad Pitt’s offense is. First off there is no guarantee they get a touchdown (odds are they don’t) and if they don’t get a touchdown there is no guarantee they get another chance like that to go ahead.

I have never seen a coach pass up a chip shot field goal to go ahead midway through the fourth quarter.

They do, and I will mention it next time the situation arises. Obviously will be tough to find the exact same scenario (score, time, distance) but coaches don’t just automatically play it safe anymore.

We will never know how it would’ve played out, but if Pitt gets stuffed there it’s probably a very high probability they get it back a couple minutes later on the Miami side of the field. Diaz almost certainly runs it up the middle on both 1st and 2nd downs in that situation.

 

[President Stache]

I think this is the result of so many dumb people being given jobs as NFL pundits on television, spouting nonsense daily on networks like ESPN FS1 and NFL network. Also on sports talk radio.

All of their stupidity and crap on a daily basis has filtered down to the public. Another scenario I find dumb is teams going for 2 late in games instead of going for the tie and sending the game to overtime. That is for a different thread though

im guessing this is it. The pundits need something to complain about and listeners that already have a biased will just agree. Same with politics.

 

[President Stache]

They do, and I will mention it next time the situation arises. Obviously will be tough to find the exact same scenario (score, time, distance) but coaches don’t just automatically play it safe anymore.

We will never know how it would’ve played out, but if Pitt gets stuffed there it’s probably a very high probability they get it back a couple minutes later on the Miami side of the field. Diaz almost certainly runs it up the middle on both 1st and 2nd downs in that situation.

It is tough, but really with our offense against Miami’s defense that HAS to play into it as well. If we had JAMES Conner and playing against Idaho, then sure, although it’s still the wrong choice, at least you have a really good feeling they can make the 2 yards. Or as someone said if your kicker is injured or just plain horrible

 

[BFo8]

It is tough, but really with our offense against Miami’s defense that HAS to play into it as well. If we had JAMES Conner and playing against Idaho, then sure, although it’s still the wrong choice, at least you have a really good feeling they can make the 2 yards. Or as someone said if your kicker is injured or just plain horrible

Stache you and I are never going to agree on this, but I respect your opinion. Mine is different in that I feel overall it makes more sense percentage wise to go for it there, but it’s a close call in my mind.

No one seems to have a firm idea of exactly where the ball was at either. The percentages of the decision certainly vary depending whether the ball was at the 1 or the 2.

 

[President Stache]

Stache you and I are never going to agree on this, but I respect your opinion. Mine is different in that I feel overall it makes more sense percentage wise to go for it there, but it’s a close call in my mind.

No one seems to have a firm idea of exactly where the ball was at either. The percentages of the decision certainly vary depending whether the ball was at the 1 or the 2.

I just watched on YouTube it’s between the one and two. So either is right. It was inches from the goal line.
Look, honestly I was super surprised that Narduzzi was looking like he was going to go for it. I always think it’s better to have your own destiny than letting the opponent have theirs. Really we should have had better plays the previous three plays? I watched it and it was basically three runs between the tackles, so that was rather dull and not “going for it” so I’d agree with that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

When Pitt was in the 2 in the fourth.

I was reading twitter and Zeise commented that it was the only decision. I am perplexed. I never heard of this and I’ve been watching football a really long time.

1. Our offense was inept. We just ran and was stopped.
2. We don’t have a te that can catch. Often you go to a Te in this situation
3. WE WERE LOSING in the 4th qtr. by one point.
4. Our defense was playing well, feeling had to be we would stop them. And we did! Three and out and we got the call back.

THis alone proves it was a successful decision. Story over. How can anyone argue it? It literally makes no sense. We did what you would think you should. It worked out and we got the ball back.

I literally can’t understand how anyone can think with our pathetic offense and Miami’s defense that we should go for it and most likely still be down 10-9 hoping for another stop and some miracle that Pickett can drive the ball back down the field for the same FG attempt as this one. It’s completely dumbfounding.

Yep. When it looked like Narduzzi was contemplating going for it, I was freaking out. Complain about the first 3 downs but the 4th down play call was 100% correct

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

If you think that the defense was playing well and that a three and out was likely, then why would giving Miami the ball at it's own one yard line be a bad thing? A three and out is much more likely there than from a "normal" position on the field, and a three and out there basically puts you into field goal range almost as soon as you catch the punt.

I like the FG choice. I wouldn't have done what you suggested because after the 3 and out, their punter either would have hit another bomb, our returners would have failed to field it and let it roll another 20 yards, we would have had a penalty or we would have fumbled. The chances that we would have got in field position for a game winning FG were no guarantee.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

They do, and I will mention it next time the situation arises. Obviously will be tough to find the exact same scenario (score, time, distance) but coaches don’t just automatically play it safe anymore.

We will never know how it would’ve played out, but if Pitt gets stuffed there it’s probably a very high probability they get it back a couple minutes later on the Miami side of the field. Diaz almost certainly runs it up the middle on both 1st and 2nd downs in that situation.

Not necessarily. Read below. Our punt returns have sucked all year long. No reason to believe we get the ball on Miami's side of the field.

 

[BFo8]

Yep. When it looked like Narduzzi was contemplating going for it, I was freaking out. Complain about the first 3 downs but the 4th down play call was 100% correct

It’s not 100%, there are quite a few people that would go for it there.

 

[PittFamily2]

If we scored a td we still lose 17-16. Miami wouldn’t have gone for 2.

Who knows if they would have scored the last TD.

The score and situation would be different. Who knows how they or Pitt would have played things.

 

[Delpanther]

When Pitt was in the 2 in the fourth.

I was reading twitter and Zeise commented that it was the only decision. I am perplexed. I never heard of this and I’ve been watching football a really long time.

1. Our offense was inept. We just ran and was stopped.
2. We don’t have a te that can catch. Often you go to a Te in this situation
3. WE WERE LOSING in the 4th qtr. by one point.
4. Our defense was playing well, feeling had to be we would stop them. And we did! Three and out and we got the call back.

THis alone proves it was a successful decision. Story over. How can anyone argue it? It literally makes no sense. We did what you would think you should. It worked out and we got the ball back.

I literally can’t understand how anyone can think with our pathetic offense and Miami’s defense that we should go for it and most likely still be down 10-9 hoping for another stop and some miracle that Pickett can drive the ball back down the field for the same FG attempt as this one. It’s completely dumbfounding.

Have you watched this defense all year? Yes they are good but not invincible as evidenced by drives they have surrendered in the second halves of the last several games. The idea that a 2 point lead would have been invincible is just dumb and failed to account for the small margin you would be giving the D. If Pitt had been up 6 on Miami’s last Drive so only a TD could have beaten them, they could have defended that drive much differently.... although who knows what goes thru Narduzzi’s brain.

 

[tetonpanther]

stooped. stooped stooped. You take the points ,take the lead. really simple

 

[pitt2533]

My issue wasn't the FG call. Getting to 4th down, I believe it was absolutely the correct call to take the 3 points and get the lead at that point in the game. Miami's offense was doing nothing to that point and you have to get the lead in the 4th qtr knowing that.

BUT, the play calling leading to 4th down was way too conservative. You have to try and score a TD there BEFORE getting to 4th down and I don't think we tried doing that.

Also, I haven't really seen it mentioned but I also haven't really read the boards either because I am disgusted by this loss. But the Punter stinks. He 8 yard punt(exaggerating) was brutal and while I am too lazy to look it up, he seems to choke every time they need a big punt.

Pitt kicks the FG for the lead, gets Miami to go 3 and out, Pitt then does nothing on offense and punts, and we get a terrible punt. That can't happen.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

It'd be mathematically interesting to calculate the expected win percentage under both scenarios. I think it's be pretty damn close. Typically the computers say always go for it from the 1 no matter what. But maybe this would fit into the rare scenario where not.

Which is to say I think the decision was fine but the other decision would have been fine too.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

When Pitt was in the 2 in the fourth.

I was reading twitter and Zeise commented that it was the only decision. I am perplexed. I never heard of this and I’ve been watching football a really long time.

1. Our offense was inept. We just ran and was stopped.
2. We don’t have a te that can catch. Often you go to a Te in this situation
3. WE WERE LOSING in the 4th qtr. by one point.
4. Our defense was playing well, feeling had to be we would stop them. And we did! Three and out and we got the call back.

THis alone proves it was a successful decision. Story over. How can anyone argue it? It literally makes no sense. We did what you would think you should. It worked out and we got the ball back.

I literally can’t understand how anyone can think with our pathetic offense and Miami’s defense that we should go for it and most likely still be down 10-9 hoping for another stop and some miracle that Pickett can drive the ball back down the field for the same FG attempt as this one. It’s completely dumbfounding.

we lost so there is your justification right there..

 

[PittFamily2]

My issue wasn't the FG call. Getting to 4th down, I believe it was absolutely the correct call to take the 3 points and get the lead at that point in the game. Miami's offense was doing nothing to that point and you have to get the lead in the 4th qtr knowing that.

BUT, the play calling leading to 4th down was way too conservative. You have to try and score a TD there BEFORE getting to 4th down and I don't think we tried doing that.

And I haven't really seen it mentioned but I haven't really read the boards either because I am disgusted by this loss. But the Punter stinks. He 8 yard punt(exaggerating) was brutal and while I am too lazy to look it up, he seems to choke every time they need a big punt.

Pitt kicks the FG for the lead, gets Miami to go 3 and out, Pitt then does nothing on offense and punts, and we get a terrible punt. That can't happen.

This is an excellent point.

We should be scoring before we put the offense in a 4th and 1 yard for a TD.

The offense had many opportunities to score one or two TD's which would have buried that Miami team.

As one football analyst said if your team cant score a TD during an entire college football game you don't deserve to win!

 

[pittdan77]

The decision to kick is just as terrible as it was at PSU. If you trust your defense, you take your shot at the TD and if you miss, you put them out there with Miami's back against the goal line.

 

[NCanton Panther]

The decision to kick is just as terrible as it was at PSU. If you trust your defense, you take your shot at the TD and if you miss, you put them out there with Miami's back against the goal line.

You can be in favor of going for it there instead of kicking the FG, if that’s your opinion fine. But please quit comparing it to PSU. The 2 are completely different situations, starting foremost with the fact one gave you the lead and the other didn’t.