I posted this last year and it's still relevant this year - Updated

[pittmeister]

I have been following Pitt football since 1973. I have donated since I left college in the early 80’s. I have defended the present and past coaches to a fault. I still support our current coach, but it's getting weaker. As a die hard fan. I have but one question:

Is it too much to ask to have more than one 10 win season (2009) in the last 39 YEARS (1981)??????

Think about that.... 39 YEARS and only ONE ten-win season. That's as many as the following teams since 1981...

Virginia / Wake Forest / Tulane / Rutgers / Kentucky / Duke / North Carolina St / Buffalo

The following are teams that I would consider on the same playing field as Pitt that have had more 10 win seasons since 1981:

Virginia Tech (14) - Prior to Beamer, that school was a misfit in a pitiful town, so they make the list.
TCU (12)
Iowa (9)
UCLA (8)
Utah (8)
Kansas St (7)
Stanford (7)
Colorado (7)
West Virginia (7)
Michigan St (7)
Arizona State (6)
Louisville (6)
Syracuse (6)
Missouri (5)
Baylor (5)
North Carolina (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Northwestern (4)
Maryland (3)
Boston College (3)
Arizona (3)
Kansas (2)
Minnesota (2)

Current Non-Power 5 schools:

Boise State (17 since 1996)
Air Force (8)
UCF (7)
Cincinnati (7)
Houston (5)
Navy (4)
Memphis (3)
Army (3)
Navy (3)
Temple (2)
Rice (2)

Yes, even Kansas and Kansas St have more 10-win seasons than Pitt. That's right Kansas St.

Will we win 10 games this year? No… Will we get there next year? With a new QB and this offense, I doubt it...

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of watching the same movie every year. I'm tired of watching the team that looks unfocused, undisciplined, and mistake prone during a game. I'm tired of the post-game excuses.

No relief in sight I'm afraid

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I believe just Pitt, Indiana, and Vanderbilt have failed to finish a regular season with 2 or fewer losses in that time frame.

Its incredible we haven't even started a season 4-0 in 20 years since 2 of those should be early season cupcake Ws

 

[HailtoPitt]

I believe just Pitt, Indiana, and Vanderbilt have failed to finish a regular season with 2 or fewer losses in that time frame.

Its incredible we haven't even started a season 4-0 in 20 years since 2 of those should be early season cupcake Ws

And Indiana and Vanderbilt have had MUCH tougher competition.

 

[PharMorNightStocker]

This program is a joke and has been a joke for 40 years. Anyone with an ounce of objectivity can see that.

 

[JokePa]

Pitts fate this year was sealed when they changed our schedule to be the most difficult in the country.
We don’t have the horses. Looking at the original schedule, we had a very good chance at 9 wins and a bowl win. This schedule will be a dog fight every game (if we are lucky), and will come down to turnovers, refs, lucky bounces, and things like that. Not a recipe for a 10 win season.
I think you need to break it down a with root cause analysis and try to fix individual gaps in the team. Heather Luke has been great at doing this in nearly every other of Pitts sports teams, and I feel

 

[pittmeister]

Pitts fate this year was sealed when they changed our schedule to be the most difficult in the country.
We don’t have the horses. Looking at the original schedule, we had a very good chance at 9 wins and a bowl win. This schedule will be a dog fight every game (if we are lucky), and will come down to turnovers, refs, lucky bounces, and things like that. Not a recipe for a 10 win season.
I think you need to break it down a with root cause analysis and try to fix individual gaps in the team. Heather Luke has been great at doing this in nearly every other of Pitts sports teams, and I feel

Your first sentence is very true. However, no one expected to lose to NCST. That's what's troubling...

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

It’s also tiring hearing Pitt players and coaches who have never even been part of a 10 or even 9 win seasons talk abort being “disrespected” simply because they are not projected to be a top ACC team.

For years there has been a little too much talk from players about how good they will be in the upcoming season (this year some players were better about the need to earn it) and too many excuses for why they lose.


It all starts with the HC and expectations from that coach. A coach needs to prove he can hire talented assistants, recruit well, coach well, prepare his team well for each game and recognize the necessary changes needed to be made during games (to give his players the best chance to win) and before the next game (so the same mistakes aren’t repeated).

This year’s team no doubt has some very talented players doing some things well- the coaches deserve some of the credit - but unfortunately, too many details are being missed by PN and staff. He does not appear to be the type of coach who is obsessed with fixing the details- just brings up that things “need to be cleaned up” - which is what one might expect to hear from a coach currently not doing enough or possibly incapable of ever doing enough to take a teams to the 10 + level.

Average coaches make excuses.
Great coaches make improvements - and win.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

And Indiana and Vanderbilt have had MUCH tougher competition.

oh here we go again with the B10....yes, Michigan, OSU & PSU every year are formidable and most likely an L. But the rest of the schedule, not so much. Indiana usually pads three cupcakes for OOC. Plus you add in Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland and the path to 8 or 9 wins a year isn't that much more difficult than us.

 

[LivinWell]

What’s unfortunate is Pitt could have really done well in the rankings this week if they would have just taken care of business with all the losses yesterday

 

[PittPanther44]

NC state has had ZERO

I still think this is a team that will win some of the big games this year and have a winning season. But 10 wins was probably never in the cards with this schedule

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

What’s unfortunate is Pitt could have really done well in the rankings this week if they would have just taken care of business with all the losses yesterday

I would really hope in Narduzzi's performance review that Lyke has Top 25 finish as a goal. This happens all to often, when a ranking is on the line, the team folds. UNC in 2015, Northwestern in 2016, and now today. No one expects undefeated. But maybe head into Miami undefeated to create some nice buzz, play a good game, but if you lose on the road to them not a huge deal. 8-3 or 9-2 most likely gets you ranked heading into the bowl season.

I would say no top 25 finsih this year the seat is warm. Really can't do anything drastic this year with Covid, but I would definitely warm that seat without a top 25 final ranking, in year 6 of his regime. This is very similar to Walt 2003, Wanny 2009.....make or break time.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

NC state has had ZERO

I still think this is a team that will win some of the big games this year and have a winning season. But 10 wins was probably never in the cards with this schedule

true, 10-1 never happening but why not 9-2? That would have meant 2 wins against ND, Va Tech, Clemson, Miami and beat all the other teams that you are favored in. Not a big ask in year 6 with a senior QB and many seniors on Defense. Now it is most likely not happening

Once again, need a top 25 finish this year or the seat has to be warm.

 

[docpanther26]

This is only my opinion and I wish it were different but we are not getting to even 9-2 with this coaching staff.
We have had the same conversations after these losses the last 3 years about his seat being warm, it’s always the next year he has to do it.
I hope I’m wrong and we can continue to win the games we are supposed to win!

 

[BFo8]

Pitts fate this year was sealed when they changed our schedule to be the most difficult in the country.
We don’t have the horses. Looking at the original schedule, we had a very good chance at 9 wins and a bowl win. This schedule will be a dog fight every game (if we are lucky), and will come down to turnovers, refs, lucky bounces, and things like that. Not a recipe for a 10 win season.
I think you need to break it down a with root cause analysis and try to fix individual gaps in the team. Heather Luke has been great at doing this in nearly every other of Pitts sports teams, and I feel

Pitt’s schedule definitely tough this season, but multiple teams play tougher schedules than they do. Some of the SEC teams literally have to run a gauntlet every single week.

 

[JokePa]

Your first sentence is very true. However, no one expected to lose to NCST. That's what's troubling...

This is true, but I for one assume every game we play is going to be close. So we will lose some we should win and win some we should lose

 

[JokePa]

Pitt’s schedule definitely tough this season, but multiple teams play tougher schedules than they do. Some of the SEC teams literally have to run a gauntlet every single week.

I meant by rankings. Pitts remainder of schedule before ncst was ranked #1 in the country

 

[BFo8]

I meant by rankings. Pitts remainder of schedule before ncst was ranked #1 in the country

I guess they are all over the board then. Looked up a couple and Pitt was not even in top 20 toughest schedules. Probably too early to get a firm grasp.

 

[JokePa]

I guess they are all over the board then. Looked up a couple and Pitt was not even in top 20 toughest schedules. Probably too early to get a firm grasp.

It was in ESPN. And shown on game day this weekend.

 

[cashisking884]

true, 10-1 never happening but why not 9-2? That would have meant 2 wins against ND, Va Tech, Clemson, Miami and beat all the other teams that you are favored in. Not a big ask in year 6 with a senior QB and many seniors on Defense. Now it is most likely not happening

Once again, need a top 25 finish this year or the seat has to be warm.

Eh. It’s a fairly big ask. We’re probably a double digit underdog in those 4 games expect VT.
And a lot of the other games were going to be coin flips. Asking the staff to win every coin flip is a huge ask.

Now, we can debate whether in Year 6 some of these games should essentially be coin flip games. But we weren’t going to be favorites in a ton of games this year. There’s a reason why the analytic models all had us at 6 to 7 wins this year with a 12 game schedule.

 

[thebadby2]

Pitts fate this year was sealed when they changed our schedule to be the most difficult in the country.
We don’t have the horses. Looking at the original schedule, we had a very good chance at 9 wins and a bowl win. This schedule will be a dog fight every game (if we are lucky), and will come down to turnovers, refs, lucky bounces, and things like that. Not a recipe for a 10 win season.
I think you need to break it down a with root cause analysis and try to fix individual gaps in the team. Heather Luke has been great at doing this in nearly every other of Pitts sports teams, and I feel

Was NCSU considered as one of the teams that make the schedule so difficult?

It doesn’t matter how hard the meat of the schedule is when you can’t even take care of the side dishes.

 

[HailtoPitt]

oh here we go again with the B10....yes, Michigan, OSU & PSU every year are formidable and most likely an L. But the rest of the schedule, not so much. Indiana usually pads three cupcakes for OOC. Plus you add in Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland and the path to 8 or 9 wins a year isn't that much more difficult than us.

Still tougher than the watered down Big East, where Pitt still was mediocre.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt’s schedule definitely tough this season, but multiple teams play tougher schedules than they do. Some of the SEC teams literally have to run a gauntlet every single week.

ESPN FPI rated Pitt with the toughest remaining schedule (including the NCSU game) in the nation.

 

[BFo8]

ESPN FPI rated Pitt with the toughest remaining schedule (including the NCSU game) in the nation.

I’m going to say by the end of the year they won’t even be close to #1.

 

[dr2011]

I have been following Pitt football since 1973. I have donated since I left college in the early 80’s. I have defended the present and past coaches to a fault. I still support our current coach, but it's getting weaker. As a die hard fan. I have but one question:

Is it too much to ask to have more than one 10 win season (2009) in the last 39 YEARS (1981)??????

Think about that.... 39 YEARS and only ONE ten-win season. That's as many as the following teams since 1981...

Virginia / Wake Forest / Tulane / Rutgers / Kentucky / Duke / North Carolina St / Buffalo

The following are teams that I would consider on the same playing field as Pitt that have had more 10 win seasons since 1981:

Virginia Tech (14) - Prior to Beamer, that school was a misfit in a pitiful town, so they make the list.
TCU (12)
Iowa (9)
UCLA (8)
Utah (8)
Kansas St (7)
Stanford (7)
Colorado (7)
West Virginia (7)
Michigan St (7)
Arizona State (6)
Louisville (6)
Syracuse (6)
Missouri (5)
Baylor (5)
North Carolina (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Northwestern (4)
Maryland (3)
Boston College (3)
Arizona (3)
Kansas (2)
Minnesota (2)

Current Non-Power 5 schools:

Boise State (17 since 1996)
Air Force (8)
UCF (7)
Cincinnati (7)
Houston (5)
Navy (4)
Memphis (3)
Army (3)
Navy (3)
Temple (2)
Rice (2)

Yes, even Kansas and Kansas St have more 10-win seasons than Pitt. That's right Kansas St.

Will we win 10 games this year? No… Will we get there next year? With a new QB and this offense, I doubt it...

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of watching the same movie every year. I'm tired of watching the team that looks unfocused, undisciplined, and mistake prone during a game. I'm tired of the post-game excuses.

No relief in sight I'm afraid

NC State has had one 10 win season in their history

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

I have been following Pitt football since 1973. I have donated since I left college in the early 80’s. I have defended the present and past coaches to a fault. I still support our current coach, but it's getting weaker. As a die hard fan. I have but one question:

Is it too much to ask to have more than one 10 win season (2009) in the last 39 YEARS (1981)??????

Think about that.... 39 YEARS and only ONE ten-win season. That's as many as the following teams since 1981...

Virginia / Wake Forest / Tulane / Rutgers / Kentucky / Duke / North Carolina St / Buffalo

The following are teams that I would consider on the same playing field as Pitt that have had more 10 win seasons since 1981:

Virginia Tech (14) - Prior to Beamer, that school was a misfit in a pitiful town, so they make the list.
TCU (12)
Iowa (9)
UCLA (8)
Utah (8)
Kansas St (7)
Stanford (7)
Colorado (7)
West Virginia (7)
Michigan St (7)
Arizona State (6)
Louisville (6)
Syracuse (6)
Missouri (5)
Baylor (5)
North Carolina (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Northwestern (4)
Maryland (3)
Boston College (3)
Arizona (3)
Kansas (2)
Minnesota (2)

Current Non-Power 5 schools:

Boise State (17 since 1996)
Air Force (8)
UCF (7)
Cincinnati (7)
Houston (5)
Navy (4)
Memphis (3)
Army (3)
Navy (3)
Temple (2)
Rice (2)

Yes, even Kansas and Kansas St have more 10-win seasons than Pitt. That's right Kansas St.

Will we win 10 games this year? No… Will we get there next year? With a new QB and this offense, I doubt it...

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of watching the same movie every year. I'm tired of watching the team that looks unfocused, undisciplined, and mistake prone during a game. I'm tired of the post-game excuses.

No relief in sight I'm afraid

I get your frustration and feel the same way about most of what you said. What I don't get is why point out the number of "10 win seasons"? I am willing to bet that you would be saying the same thing about a program that has 39 "10 win seasons" and just can't seem to get to that 11 or 12 win mark.
It does suck to be a Pitt sports fan. I can't tell you how many times over the years I've watched them break the hearts of Pitt fans. Both of the major sports at the school. football and basketball have been culprits. It has gotten to the point that when it happens now, I anticipate it and it seems to lessen the pain, but the frustration continues.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What I don't get is why point out the number of "10 win seasons"? I am willing to bet that you would be saying the same thing about a program that has 39 "10 win seasons" and just can't seem to get to that 11 or 12 win mark.

Always remember, there were some Pitt fans, not a lot, but some, for whom 11-1, 11-1, 11-1, over three seasons wasn't enough because none of those seasons brought a national championship.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

I predicted 7-4 before the season started. If we win this week, then we can still get there.

 

[BFo8]

I predicted 7-4 before the season started. If we win this week, then we can still get there.

I remember seeing you post that. I thought 7-4 seemed ambitious while 6-5 seemed a little pessimistic. Welcome to being a Pitt fan I guess.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

NC State has had one 10 win season in their history

FWIW, NC State might have the best football fanbase relative to historical program strength.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I’m going to say by the end of the year they won’t even be close to #1.

That metric included NC State and BC which had to have drug it down and it was still #1. I would think their final 6 games would still be the toughest final 6 games in the nation. 2 Top 5 teams, VT and Miami both Top 20ish, at GT and at FSU wont be easy.

 

[BFo8]

That metric included NC State and BC which had to have drug it down and it was still #1. I would think their final 6 games would still be the toughest final 6 games in the nation. 2 Top 5 teams, VT and Miami both Top 20ish, at GT and at FSU wont be easy.

That will pale against the closing stretch some of the SEC teams will face.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

That metric included NC State and BC which had to have drug it down and it was still #1. I would think their final 6 games would still be the toughest final 6 games in the nation. 2 Top 5 teams, VT and Miami both Top 20ish, at GT and at FSU wont be easy.

Auburn's last five games are against 17, 14, 2 and 21 and the team that you declared last week to be coached by the greatest coach in the world.

If we had done this exercise a week ago it would have been 20, 16, 21, 2 and 13. And that would have been after playing their first two games against teams that were ranked when they played. Of the ten teams they play this year, eight of them got votes in the AP poll this week, and nine of them got votes in the coaches poll.

But yeah, our schedule is tougher than that.

 

[BFo8]

Auburn's last five games are against 17, 14, 2 and 21 and the team that you declared last week to be coached by the greatest coach in the world.

If we had done this exercise a week ago it would have been 20, 16, 21, 2 and 13. And that would have been after playing their first two games against teams that were ranked when they played. Of the ten teams they play this year, eight of them got votes in the AP poll this week, and nine of them got votes in the coaches poll.

But yeah, our schedule is tougher than that.

I truly hate myself for saying this as I thought Jeremy Pruitt was a boob and Guarantano a joke, but Tennessee may be better than any team in the ACC outside of Clemson, and they are maybe the 5th best team in the SEC.

There is no way no how Pitt has the toughest schedule in the country, not even close. Anyone or any metric that shows this is very mistaken.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Arkansas has already played teams that were ranked 4 and 16 when they played. Their next game is against 13. Then ORV. Then 21, then 14, 4 and 17. Then after a week where they play their one and only team on the schedule not receiving votes in the AP poll this week they get number 2.

We aren't going to pretend our schedule is tougher than that, are we?

 

[LeftCoastPanther]

Tough to read the facts and incredible it cannot come together here and there for some 10-win seasons.

Does this boil down to the school just not giving a damn? Football has been so poorly run since 1982 that it is no shock it has been as mediocre as it has been. The seven- and eight-win seasons seem to be OK for the school until it is not.

There is also no pageantry when it comes to Pitt football and that is either important or not to a university. What is sad is for so many decades there were kids in the area to recruit and now that appears to be over with sans some kids here and there. The job has become even tougher due to that factor.

 

[Phillypanther2]

oh here we go again with the B10....yes, Michigan, OSU & PSU every year are formidable and most likely an L. But the rest of the schedule, not so much. Indiana usually pads three cupcakes for OOC. Plus you add in Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland and the path to 8 or 9 wins a year isn't that much more difficult than us.

Is the B10 overrated? Yes
Does Indiana play a tougher schedule than us most years? Yes

 

[DruidTM]

Always remember, there were some Pitt fans, not a lot, but some, for whom 11-1, 11-1, 11-1, over three seasons wasn't enough because none of those seasons brought a national championship.

I was a kid

but remember it well

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Does Indiana play a tougher schedule than us most years? Yes

I'm not sure what metric you want to use, but the Sagarin (because he's famous) SOS ranking for the two teams the last five years:

Pitt: 62, 3, 28, 9, 27
Indiana: 58, 22, 48, 63, 54

Pitt average: 25.8
Indiana average: 49.0

That's not even close, and not in the direction you seem to think. But it's also not surprising when Indiana's non-conference schedules include Ball State, Eastern Illinois, UConn, FIU, Virginia, Ball State (again), Virginia (again), FIU (again), Georgia Southern, FIU (again), Ball State (again), Wake Forest, Southern Illinois, FIU (again) and Western Kentucky.

The only question there is how did they manage to include a decent Virginia team in amongst all those teams that don't even have a pulse?

 

[JokePa]

Your first sentence is very true. However, no one expected to lose to NCST. That's what's troubling...

Id agree that after the VT game that was and should be the feeling. At the beginning of the year though, I for sure the game woulda been a toss up.