Immediate thoughts
- Thread starter gary2
- Start date
Credit has to be given to Horton. He can really shoot the ball when he’s in rhythm. Pitt hasn’t had a deep threat that can do that under Capel.
Xavier Johnson had a usage rate in this game of 46. 46!!!!!! That itself is a joke.
Xavier Johnson
20 minutes playing time
4 assists, 7 turnovers
5 fouls
ORTG rating-89
Turnover Rate- 46%
Bad, all the way around. X's ORTG is now a 99 in ACC play. His play has severely fallen. He has been lousy outside the Virginia Tech game recently.
Terrell Brown
BPM + / - efficiency- -27.5, this stat stays in line with just about every other ACC game, the moment Brown checks in and AKC checks out of the game, we get killed. It happens every single game. Brown has had the worst efficiency metrics in almost every game since the losing streak started.
Femi Odukale had a terrible first half. Femi finished with 4 assists and 0 turnovers in the 2nd half and was a big reason this team competed in the 2nd half.
Ithiel Horton's ORTG power rating is now 114 in ACC play. He has blown past X and Trey Mcgowens in Conference play in efficiency and it isn't even close any more. Give the man the ball and let him shoot it. Horton is shooting the 3 ball at 41% in acc play and is now scoring over 12 points per game in ACC games. Horton has the tools to be really good, way better than he is now. You can see every game the confidence is growing. Despite losing this game I really like our future backcourt pieces of Femi and Horton.
Horton is what a lot of people bizarrely tried to convince themselves Parker Stewart was. Seems like the mockery over Capel praising his game in practice was premature. Malik Ellison 2.0 my ass.
Maybe X needs to start the games on the bench. It worked once, although that is a small sample size.
Certainly not our best performance.
However, we weren't just going through
the motions like when we lost three in
a row. That losing streak might happen
again, but as long as the effort and edge
is there I'm ok with it.
As usual X is key to the outcome. He was
up and down today, mostly down. The TO's
he makes are awful for a pg. Their D also had
a lot to do with what he couldn't do today.
Their big is far better than what we have,
even though Coulibaly is giving us what he
can. Brown?.....I won't even go there. We
worked hard inside, but their inside players
were a match for us. I like our guys, but an
inside game of Coulibaly and two 6'6"
forwards is not exactly striking fear in the
opposing ACC teams.
GT can play. We did make a few runs, but a
loss like this isn't a killer. I can see maybe two
more wins, but that's no guarantee. Given
what we are, we almost have to play a
perfect game to win in the ACC. Hopefully
we have a few more in us.
However, we weren't just going through
the motions like when we lost three in
a row. That losing streak might happen
again, but as long as the effort and edge
is there I'm ok with it.
As usual X is key to the outcome. He was
up and down today, mostly down. The TO's
he makes are awful for a pg. Their D also had
a lot to do with what he couldn't do today.
Their big is far better than what we have,
even though Coulibaly is giving us what he
can. Brown?.....I won't even go there. We
worked hard inside, but their inside players
were a match for us. I like our guys, but an
inside game of Coulibaly and two 6'6"
forwards is not exactly striking fear in the
opposing ACC teams.
GT can play. We did make a few runs, but a
loss like this isn't a killer. I can see maybe two
more wins, but that's no guarantee. Given
what we are, we almost have to play a
perfect game to win in the ACC. Hopefully
we have a few more in us.
The Panthers did well to start out running the offense through Champagnie on the block/block extended. Even when not scoring, getting it to Champagnie helps offensive spacing and flow.
What's just as important is hitting your shooter(s) when he's open. It accomplishes the same thing; that is, if you don't get a good look, the defense gets stretched for better spacing/flow. It was even more important this game to hit Horton because he was feeling it. If you ever were a shooter and you got to your spot with your feet and hands ready, you know the feeling. On more than one occasion Horton was RIGHT THERE ready and the smart pass never came. Frustrating.
What's just as important is hitting your shooter(s) when he's open. It accomplishes the same thing; that is, if you don't get a good look, the defense gets stretched for better spacing/flow. It was even more important this game to hit Horton because he was feeling it. If you ever were a shooter and you got to your spot with your feet and hands ready, you know the feeling. On more than one occasion Horton was RIGHT THERE ready and the smart pass never came. Frustrating.
So true! When you' have that "feeling,"
(and let's face it, it's not always there)
the hoop seems 10 feet wide. You know
it's good as soon as it leaves your hand.
Johnson was not the best on the team, at all.
BPM + / - Player efficiency Ratings against Georgia Tech
Horton- + 9.5
Champ- +3.5
Toney- +1.5
AKC- +1.4
Jeffress- +1.1
X- +.4
Players in the Negative today
Sibande- -3.8
Odukale- -8.9
Brown- -27.6
Femi did not have a good game today, he was quite bad in the first half. Was much better in the 2nd half. Although Ill still blame any player that has 7 turnovers with a 46% turnover rate with a 46% usage rate every time regardless of the + / - numbers. Brown drags down every players averages when he is on the floor.
The point, was our team gets outscored with Brown on the floor every single game in the BPM efficiency metrics. The + / - today just further confirms that even in a few minutes, Brown hurts this teams chances to win. Brown is a constant net negative.
Pitt had one player today who was a positive in +/-. ONE. And his name was Xavier Johnson at +2. Horton was second best, and he was a zero. Odukale was the worst, he was at -11.
Everyone is playing worse right now except
for Horton and probably AkC.
for Horton and probably AkC.
Good point. Some people never figure
out that important as stats are, they can
also be misleading and don't always
give a full picture of what's truly
happening in a game. They're often
used here and elsewhere to fit a
certain narrative....both in and out
of sports.
I learned a long time ago that if you
use statistics to fit a narrative, it's
very possible to take the same stats
to fit the opposite narrative.
You dont understand the difference between BPM + / - and standard + / -. Standard is what it is, standard. BPM is an efficiency based + / -. They are not the same thing.
Actually I do understand the difference. I talked about their +/- and YOU changed the metric to fit the narrative that you wanted to push.
The funny thing is that other than one other person you are the person on this board most likely to quote a metric that you clearly don't understand.
Plus Minus only tells you so much "loose" information. If you have 4 All Star Players on the floor accumulating all the stats and 1 jr high level player on the court standing there watching while doing nothing, the standard plus minus isnt going to tell you the one player doing nothing is really doing nothing. He will have the same plus minus as the other 4 players doing all the work.
BPM is the real meat statistic in plus minus. It tells you what players are actually contributing and doing the real damage in the game on a 100 possession basis. I use BPM 95% of the time. It tells you why Terrell Brown, if ones eyesight isn't picking up on it, is not close to a D1 P6 basketball player. He is by far the weakest link on the team in the current rotation. And it isnt even close.
AKC does some nice things on the court, but some of his defense is frustrating. He works hard guarding under the hoop, but there are issues away from the basket. Hedging, switching, and doubling are defensive skills that improve with experience, and he's not where he needs to be on them. A lot of his hedges morph into double-teams or semi-switches (a big no no), which lead to problems when the man he's guarding rolls early or slips to the hoop. When he gets more comfortable, he should be anticipating the slip ON TIME and be in better position to cover it.
My impression of AKC on defense:
He is excellent when he has established contact. He doesn’t get backed down and he can defend post moves. Taller players can shoot over him.
He gets out on shooters as far as he probably is coached to.
He has done a better job on hedging than I anticipated him being able to do.
Today on offense, Tech left him plenty of room. I thought we could have done something to take advantage of it. If nothing else, I would have like to have seen some foul line jumpers.
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I can see the coaching is there with him, and I give him credit for the effort. IMO he just needs more experience to get a better feel for it. Sometimes his momentum is still going toward midcourt when his big man has already started slipping/rolling to the hoop. Unless his man is a 3-point threat, he should be anticipating the slip/roll and should be poised in anticipation to fire back in defensive coverage. In other words, his problem is not getting to the hedge; it's staying too long.
Sometimes his hedges even go beyond the ballhandler. That is, his man AND the ballhandler are between him and the basket he's guarding.
There are a total of 12 players in the ACC scoring over 15+ points per game this year.
5 of the Top 9 and 7 of the top 12 scorers in the entire ACC play the 4 / 5. Garrison Brooks and Aamir Simms were preseason 1st Team All ACC Selections and neither are scoring over 15+ points per game right now.
College Basketball is a guards game. But the ACC is absolutely loaded with frontcourt talent this year. In fact, the talent in the frontcourt in the ACC blows away the backcourt talent in the ACC this year. It isn't even close. Generally you have teams like Duke and UNC with Elite bigs and maybe a few more teams. Not this year, there are high quality bigs all over the place in the ACC. Its a weird year as the frontcourt talent is way up and the guard talent is down in the ACC.
All this talk about AKC's defense going against All Conference players on a nightly basis like AKC is the weak link on the team is pretty ironic. Most of this frontcourt talent will be out of the league next year. When the All Conference Teams are announced at seasons end, the frontcourt players in the ACC will be the bulk of the All Conference Selections. All these players AKC keeps facing will be on the All League Teams. And most of these players are upperclassmen or seniors.
I agree. You can see the coaching is there,
because AKC is actually doing what he's
being taught. If you watch him, you can
predict what he's going to do and how he
goes about it. As I watch him it's mostly
mechanical at this point. He's not doing
these things instinctively. You described it
as "getting a feel for it" and I'm saying he
doesn't do these things instinctively yet.
He originally looked not only mechanical,
but almost like a robot. I feel they're making
real progress with him though.
Now if only he had someone else on this
team to share the center position.
A Big Tall Elite Center can make all the difference in the world to the entire team defense by anchoring the middle of the paint. I don't comment a lot on past teams but Steven Adams has been a pretty hot topic on this board for one reason or another. Just look at the difference Adams made on our team defense without him and with him year over year.
2012 Team Defense basketball Ranking without Adams- 151st Nationally
2013 Team Defense basketball ranking with Adams- 21st Nationally
That is 1 big athletic center making everyone else job easier and our team improving 130 spots Nationally on defense year over year. When you have a Big Rim protector in college whether its Adams or Emeka Okafor or someone else, it helps the entire defense extend defensive pressure, it helps rebounding, it helps the transition game, it helps in so many different areas. We are banking on Coulibaly going against All Conference Players this year nightly playing with a weak defensive player in Champ beside him followed by Brown. No need to beat the dead horse on this one and why there are some problems here. All things considered I think AKC has done a decent job this year given the circumstances including his age and going against a loaded ACC upperclassmen frontcourt.
+/- is a shtt metric in basketball, no matter how you slice it
Not "beating a dead horse" at all. Read the
entire post...I was actually complimenting
AKC while saying he wasn't "instinctive" enough
at this time. Also said he was doing what he's
being coached to do. All realistic comments IMO.
You're the last one to talk about "beating a
dead horse" with your incessant BPM and ORTG
power ratings. Some of us are capable of
eyeballing what's happening on the floor and
draw accurate and realistic conclusions. Some
of us played the game at higher levels, coached
it, been there, and can also use statistics in a
logical and reasonable way.
Every one of my predictions in the preseason was almost spot on.
That includes Brown not starting which he didnt as I told you he was 3rd on the depth chart in the preseason from practices, Horton's estimated ORTG which he is exceeding right now, which freshmen would contribute the most (Odukale and Hugley followed by Jeffress as I predicted). I also said Trey Mcgowens was ridiculously overrated on offense and on defense multiple times and we didn't need him, which we don't and his ORTG at Nebraska along with his shooting percentages are lousy. I also said Collier is likely to redshirt or used sparingly and some people thought he was our top freshmen coming into the program when even Jeff Capel said otherwise.
I also doubled down on Horton in the non conference schedule when a lot of you had already thrown in the towel and thought he was overmatched after not playing a single game in 2 years.
Spare me the "I dont use stats in a logical way". When Im wrong as often as bballinsider about everything or even really wrong about just 1 thing, then you have something to get on me for. The closest thing Ive said to being wrong is Nike Sibande providing better depth. Sibande has provided next to nothing valuable this year.
Don't pull bballinsider into your nonsense.
He's not your issue here, I am. I called you
out, and the best you can do is tell us why
you're always "almost spot on" concerning
"predictions" and everything else you listed
above. IMO your rational is nothing more
than a litany of how and when (in your
delusional mind) you were right while many
others on here were wrong.
Tell ya what.....include some "IMO's" or maybe
some "this is how I see it" in your posts. I do
it in most of mine because, even though I feel I'm
right....I also realize it's often an opinion, not
always a fact, and that I just might be wrong.
You didn't write the book on basketball analysis,
and all the overly used BPM's and ORTG's's
backing up your OPINIONS aren't going to cut
it with some of us here.
Just my two cents.
He's not your issue here, I am. I called you
out, and the best you can do is tell us why
you're always "almost spot on" concerning
"predictions" and everything else you listed
above. IMO your rational is nothing more
than a litany of how and when (in your
delusional mind) you were right while many
others on here were wrong.
Tell ya what.....include some "IMO's" or maybe
some "this is how I see it" in your posts. I do
it in most of mine because, even though I feel I'm
right....I also realize it's often an opinion, not
always a fact, and that I just might be wrong.
You didn't write the book on basketball analysis,
and all the overly used BPM's and ORTG's's
backing up your OPINIONS aren't going to cut
it with some of us here.
Just my two cents.
Ah yes, the guy who told everyone Will Jeffress wasn’t ready to play all year, that Horton would average 8 per game (2 off, could easily still get to my number) that Hugley wouldn’t be a good player here and that the staff needed upgrading being pulled into the argument he wasn’t a part of as “wrong”.
Vader you twist every metric available to try and prove your point and then cherry pick games to further try to prove your point. You’re consistently wrong. And no I’m not gonna read your Leo Tolstoy esque response.
Vader you twist every metric available to try and prove your point and then cherry pick games to further try to prove your point. You’re consistently wrong. And no I’m not gonna read your Leo Tolstoy esque response.
Will Jeffress is the youngest ACC player in 40 years. Literally everyone understood his youth and had fairly realistic expectations along with it "this" season. I cant remember anyone making some huge outrageous Jeffress prediction this year in the preseason. Everyone knew he was very young.
John Hugley was producing just fine in the action he got.
That’s not true about Jeffress at all. Everyone here thought he’d be an immediate contributor.
And Hugley is gone. We hardly knew ye
Interested in your last statement.
Why do you think he has provided so little.
He was productive in a decent league.
He doesn't look comfortable in his current role or seem to fit into our current offense and I have not seen enough dribble penetration from him to attack the inside. And on defense he has been pretty bad, like close to worst on the team bad. A few games ago I mentioned playing him and extending defensive pressure to 3/4 to full court to try to force a few turnovers and use his athletic ability to try to force some turnovers and get a transition bucket when he is on the floor. Just like with Brown, our team is getting soundly beaten when he is on the floor, repeatedly, game after game.
Thanks for the reply.
I think Pitt should play pressure defense more,regardless if Nike plays more or not.
That is the net: When X plays well, Pitt plays well. When X plays poorly, Pitt plays poorly. It's that simple.
And sitting him isn't going to help. The aforementioned +/- of debatable value at least shows that. Pitt was still +2 with bad X on the floor.
And the reason why sitting him doesn't really help is because the guy that replaces him when he sits isn't appreciably better than what "Bad Johnson" gives us. He does almost all of the same things that people bitch about with Johnson when he isn't playing well, and yet I guess because he is a freshman people give him a pass.
Not only is he given a “pass” it’s excused as potential despite him filing for social security in 3 years.
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