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In the Pitt - 10/19/2012

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Chris Peak

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October 19, 2012

Welcome back to In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com's rundown of everything going on in Pitt recruiting. Three weeks ago we ran down Pitt's top targets at every position, and two weeks ago we honed in on some specific topics. Today we'll look at the remaining 2013 targets and project how this class might look when it's all said and done.


Top of the Pitt

The biggest news in Pitt recruiting this week came on Thursday night after much of this report had been written (yeah, some things have had to be edited). The news was that Gaithersburg (Md.) Avalon School athlete Rachid Ibrahim committed to Pitt. He is listed as a running back in the Rivals.com database, but Pitt projects him as a safety.

Ibrahim's decision comes just a few days after he got an offer from the Pitt coaches; actually, he received his offer while in Pittsburgh on an unofficial visit over the weekend. After attending Pitt's game against Louisville on Saturday, he spent time with head coach Paul Chryst Sunday morning, and that's when the offer came.

At the time, he admitted that his top two of Iowa and Boston College had quickly expanded to a top three that included Pitt. And on Thursday night, he accepted the Pitt offer.

Ibrahim first appeared on the scene as a sophomore at Avalon when he set a Maryland high school record with seven rushing touchdowns in a single game, and he was named to the MDHigh.com All-Private School second team.

The following spring, Ibrahim took part in the Badger Sports' Elite 7-on-7 Tournament that was held at Pitt, and he stood out once again, with one analyst writing the following evaluation on Ibrahim:

Strong instincts with very quick reactions. Showed the ability to read the QB's eyes and explode on routes. Is an outstanding RB on film who had a very productive season as a sophomore. Showed great natural athletic ability at the camp. Is a class of 2013 prospect. Must add bulk to frame.

Prior to Ibrahim's senior season, the guys at MDHigh.com spoke to Tad Shields, the head coach at Avalon, and he talked about Ibrahim:

Rachid is getting a lot of college looks on defense, but he really excels as a running back for us. He is just an incredibly gifted runner. Rachid has certain on-field instincts that most kids at this level just don't have. He seems to know exactly when to make his cuts, and he anticipates where the holes will open. Then physically, Rachid is a great speed-power combination. I mean, you'll see some big 'backs our there or some little speed 'backs, but Rachid is both. In a way, Rachid reminds me of [former Vikings RB] Robert Smith. He has these long strides, he has great vision and he makes great decisions. He's very quick, he's very agile and he's nimble between the tackles, which [allows him to] get skinny in the holes..[Moreover], Rachid can also finish off his runs and maintain his speed downfield.

But Rachid is also a tough son-of-a-gun at safety. He's extremely aggressive, and he's as good as anybody in this area when the ball's in the air. But Rachid really does well at diagnosing running plays. He gets a great jump on the ball, he hits the gap quickly and then he lays the wood. And then what really sets Rachid apart is his passion and work ethic. A lot of kids can play good football, but Rachid has that extra gear going for him…. [To get better], Rachid has to work on his reads as a safety in terms of recognizing patterns and getting to the right spot. Then he has to improve his breaks and deep cover skills. As a running back, he can always use another step or two [of speed].


While his coach thinks he's a good running back, Pitt likes him at safety. The coaches wanted another safety in this class, and Ibrahim fits the bill. It's important to recognize Ibrahim as a safety, because Corey Clement remains the priority at running back.

Here are the first two games of this season.

We were unsuccessful in our efforts to reach Ibrahim Thursday night; we will continue working to get an interview with him through the weekend. The interview we ran with him after he got his offer does talk a lot about his thoughts on Pitt.


The target number

With Ibrahim on board, Pitt now has remaining offers are on the board. Obviously the first question is how many more recruits Pitt will sign.

I have gone back and forth on this, particularly since it looks like they'll be well short of that number after this season. According to The Scholarship Board, Pitt will start with 15 open spots from the seniors and one extra spot from this year's roster. But I am fairly confident that Pitt will sign 25 recruits in the class of 2013. That means nine instances of attrition - or un-renewed walk-on scholarships - if they want to get to 25. I will say with a fair amount of confidence that they will get there.

I'm sure speculation will follow about where the attrition will come from, but one way or the other, they'll find the space to sign 25.


The remaining spots

For those final six spots, then, here's what I see as Pitt's going after by position:

Offensive line - I expect Pitt to try to land two more offensive linemen in this class. In fact, you can remove the "try;" Pitt will land two more offensive linemen in the class. Restocking the offensive line is a key for this recruiting class.

Defensive back - In the first draft of this report, I wrote that Pitt will go for two more defensive backs in the class, probably with one cornerback and one safety. With Ibrahim, that number (obviously) drops to one.

With regards to the defensive backs, there is some talent at those positions, but the secondary is a spot where the "three-years-out" rule applies. In case you're not familiar, coaches tend to recruit with an eye to three years down the road, i.e. recruits in this class will be expected to contribute and/or start as juniors/redshirt sophomores. When you look at it that way, the defensive backfield could use another recruit or two in this class to build the depth.

Linebacker - Pitt will want at least one more linebacker in this class, and if the coaches can get two of their top targets (we'll get to those in a second) then they'll take them both.

Wide receiver - Here again, Pitt wants one more, but if both of the top targets (and you know who they are) want to commit, the coaches will take them both.

If Pitt gets two offensive linemen, one defensive back, one linebacker, and one receiver, that would be five of the six remaining spots.

Quarterback - 1
Running back - 1
Wide receiver - 3
Tight end - 2
Fullback - 1
Offensive line - 4
Defensive line - 4
Linebacker - 2
Defensive back - 4
Specialists - 2

That's 24 of 25, and the 25th recruit will probably come from one of the position groups listed above (OL, LB, DB, WR).


The primary list

So let's look at who could fill those spots.

Offensive line

Dorian Johnson - The top offensive line target on the board and one recruit Pitt will continue pursuing until the day he puts pen to paper.

[URL=http://pittsburgh.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=135460]Jaryd Jones-Smith
- Another top target who is a priority for the Pitt staff, Jones-Smith will probably commit once he actually visits, which will probably happen after the season.

Donovan Munger - Munger is listed as a defensive tackle in the Rivals.com database and most schools are recruiting him for that position, but Pitt seems to be projecting him for offense. The Panthers are not at the top for Munger, but they could get an official visit out of him.

Alex Officer - Officer has rather quietly kept Pitt as one of his top schools, and the Panthers seem to be in good shape. The staff definitely likes him, but he's probably below the top three.

Eric Tetlow - Pitt may get an official visit, but it's probably a moot point. His interests lie elsewhere.

Linebacker

Al-Rasheed Benton - I think Pitt is in good shape with Benton, and he could be lined up for an official visit in the near future.

Courtney Love - This is a long shot because Love is committed to Nebraska, but I keep hearing that Pitt is involved. He visited at least twice over the summer - despite his commitment to the Huskers - and now the key is to get an official visit.

Alton Meeks - The last time I communicated with Meeks, he said Pitt was a school he would like to see on an official visit, but he is committed to Cincinnati as a quarterback and he wanted to clear potential visits with the Bearcats' coaching staff. I'm still waiting to hear whether or not he has scheduled anything, but Pitt is definitely in pursuit.

Defensive back

Jaleel Hytchye - There was a time when Pitt's main competition for Hytchye was Northwestern. Now Penn State has offered and coaches from Wisconsin and Georgia have been showing interest. Pitt is still high on his list (although probably behind Northwestern), but the new schools mean the field is getting bigger.

this article when it was published last month, but McClain isn't completely solid on his Kentucky commitment. He was high on Pitt when he committed to Kentucky, and the Panthers are one of the teams he has stayed in contact with since the commitment. I look for Pitt to get an official visit and maybe have a chance to land the Winter Park (Fla.) cornerback.

Brian Brown - Brown is a bit of an enigma; Pitt is his "biggest" offer - as opposed to East Carolina and Richmond - but I've never gotten a sense that he is anxious to commit or really even leaning much to the Panthers. I think he likes Pitt and Pitt obviously likes him, but it's at least a little weird. Brown is a safety prospect, though, and Ibrahim's commitment could put him on the outside looking in, unless there is a spot open late in the process.

Wide receiver

Robert Foster - Probably the biggest name on the board (other than Dorian Johnson), Foster is a priority recruit for Pitt, and it seems that his top group of schools - from what we can tell - keeps dropping, having gone from a top seven to Pitt, Alabama, and Ohio State, to Pitt and Alabama (although Ohio State could get back involved). Everything seems to point to Foster staying home, and while there are questions about his eligibility, I'll say this: we have seen plenty of recruits over the years look very questionable at this point in their senior years. But only a small handful of cases have been completely hopeless. Most kids who are struggling can usually salvage something by the time we get to June. Chris Jacobson and Lucas Nix come to mind; both had eligibility concerns at this point in their senior years, but both got it together. I guess I am saying not to rule out Foster being eligible for his freshman year of college.

Tyler Boyd - The other big-time receiver on Pitt's board, Boyd has been leaning pretty heavily to West Virginia since…well, for a long time. But Pitt's not completely out of it. The Panthers certainly trail the Mountaineers - and maybe one or two other teams - but receivers coach Bobby Engram has done some good work with Boyd (and Foster) and Pitt is still in the conversation.

Also

taking an official visit last weekend, but that won't happen until after the season. Pitt likes Moody quite a bit, and he could be the sixth recruit in the class to go with the offensive linemen, defensive back, linebacker(s), and receiver(s).

Kenton Gibbs - Gibbs is considering Pitt after decommitting from Illinois. The Panthers may get an official visit, but there are a number of Big Ten schools pursuing him.

Devon Edwards - Pitt would probably like another tight end in this class and Edwards took an official visit for the Virginia Tech game. He's still looking at Cincinnati and West Virginia, but I don't have a great feel for his recruitment. He seems to be leaning away from Pitt, but I can't say for sure.


No matter what

In past years I have referred to a small group of recruits as "no-matter-whats;" these are the recruits that Pitt will take regardless of what else happens with the class; there will always be a spot for these recruits, no matter what.

In the class of 2013, I think the remaining "no-matter-whats" are:

Dorian Johnson
Robert Foster
Tyler Boyd
Jaryd Jones-Smith

And I think Donovan Munger, Courtney Love, and possibly Blake McClain are in that group, too, although obviously those are longer shots. But if you see Pitt land another offensive line recruit - let's say Officer - don't think they will turn away Johnson or Jones-Smith.


If it happens

Let's play the what-if game and assume that Pitt fills its final six spots with these recruits (these are hypothetical; some seem like Pitt will get them, while others are guesses):

Dorian Johnson
Jaryd Jones-Smith
Robert Foster
Al-Rasheed Benton
Justin Moody
Blake McClain

If Pitt gets those six recruits, we can estimate the ranking of the class using this formula. Note that the formula only counts the top 20 recruits; also note that this estimate is based on the current prospect rankings, which are likely to change as recruits get re-evaluated.

Based on the current rankings, though, if Pitt landed those six recruits, the class would have 1,529 points; in the current team rankings, Pitt's 1,529 points would rank No. 23 overall, just 6 points behind No. 22 UCLA. That would be the highest total in the current Big East and rank No. 6 in the ACC.

If that's how they finish, that's not too bad. Even if Pitt doesn't land McClain (5.6 Rivals rating) and replaces him with a two-star player, the class would still rank No. 1 in the Big East and No. 6 in the ACC. The keys are Foster and Johnson; if Pitt lands Foster and Johnson to go with Chapman (three 4-star recruits) and the set of 3-star recruits, the Panthers will have a class that ranks in the upper half of the ACC, and I don't think that's a bad place to start. Plus, if they could pull off a Courtney Love or a Donovan Munger, then the class could climb even higher.

And the ranking might improve if some of Pitt's commits get a bump in the ratings. I think Zach Challingsworth, Matt Galambos, Reggie Green, and possibly Tony Harper could all see upgrades from 2-stars to 3-stars, which would improve their Rivals Ratings and the ranking of the class overall.

This could end up being a top-25 class, but the keys are Johnson and Foster. Pitt needs to land those two (and/or Boyd).


Official visits

We have seen that the coaching staff is shying away from in-season official visits; so far there have only been two. There are a couple reasons behind that, but the primary motivation is that you have much more time to spend with the recruits if they visit in December or January than you have on a game day.

On game day, the team has meetings Friday night, pregame activities Saturday morning, and the game throughout the afternoon. That is all valuable time that the recruits could be spending with the coaches or current players, and you don't have any of it if a kid visits during the fall on a game day.

Now, if Dorian Johnson called Pitt and said he wanted to take his official visit

From what we have gathered, the coaches are aiming to have the recruits who plan to enroll early - Tra'von Chapman, Corey Clement, Scott Orndoff, Shakir Soto, and I think there is one other; I always lose track - take their official visits in December, and the rest of the commits will take their visits in January. Then the coaches will place the remaining targets into the visits depending on the recruits' preferences.

I have heard that Al-Rasheed Benton could be setting up a visit for the next month, but otherwise I expect the rest of the visits for those targets we mentioned to be after the season.


On the road again

I'll be leaving this afternoon to drive up to Buffalo. Pitt should be able to win this game with relative ease; I look for the running backs to do the heavy lifting and I expect big days from both Ray Graham and Rushel Shell. This might even look a little like the 2009 game at Buffalo: some passing touchdowns early and a lot of running to kill the final three quarters.

I'll be back in Pittsburgh on Sunday, and I'll be hosting on 93.7 The Fan Sunday afternoon. They are broadcasting one of the one o'clock NFL games; I'll be on from that game's conclusion until 6 pm. That will probably only be an hour or an hour and a half, but I'm going to fill it with Pitt talk, so tune in. We'll have a conversation about the Buffalo game, the outlook for the final five games, recruiting, Pitt hoops, and whatever else we want to talk about.[/URL]
 
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