February 3, 2012
It’s time for another edition of In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com’s rundown of the latest happenings in Pitt recruiting. Today we’re wrapping up Signing Day 2012, breaking down the positional needs, and looking ahead to the class of 2013.
Before and after
And just like that, Signing Day 2012 is gone. After year of buildup, including the ridiculously hectic months of December and January, the class of 2012 is in the books. It’s odd to look back and think about how much time, effort, and energy was expended on the class, because now it’s all about the future and looking ahead.
Before we jump into 2013, though, let’s take one last look at the class that Pitt signed on Wednesday.
The core
I wrote about the Signing Day storylines on Signing Day, but the one that I keep coming back to is this:
The core of the class stuck together. We saw what happened a year ago when the core of the class wasn’t committed to sticking with Pitt; I can’t say that I blame those kids for making the decisions they made, but the contrast between the complete disassembling of that class and the relative sustaining of this class is considerable.
Of course, there are a variety of factors that played into this class sticking together. For starters, Pitt fired the coach last year, leaving a lot of recruits - and assistant coaches - feeling rather bitter about the situation, and the Mike Haywood fiasco was the final straw for a group that tenuously holding on as it was. This year, Todd Graham left Pitt, making Pitt the sympathetic figure. The recruits had no beef with Pitt in this situation, and that made it a lot easier to stick with their commitments.
And you have to give credit to some of the key players in this situation. I’ve written many times about the efforts of Chad Voytik, Rushel Shell, the Davis twins, and Adam Bisnowaty; those guys were key in making sure the class didn’t fall apart, and I’m going to write more about how that came together.
But I haven’t written nearly enough about the efforts of Chris LaSala and Bob Junko. If you’re a Pitt fan, you either know who those two guys are or you should know. LaSala is the Director of Football Operations and Junko is Director of Program Enhancement and Outreach; you won’t find two better representatives of Pitt than LaSala and Junko, and from the time Todd Graham left, those two worked tirelessly to keep the recruits on board.
(As an aside, Paul Chryst made it a point on Wednesday to mention how important LaSala and Junko were; by contrast, Graham marginalized both of them, despite the fact that they could have been his greatest assets in the transition at Pitt.)
The ones that got away
Of course, not all of the recruits stuck with Pitt. Eight previous commitments did not sign with Pitt on Wednesday:
Dakota Conwell - Arizona
Brandyn Cook - Miami (OH)
Marzett Geter - Slippery Rock
Tyrique Jarrett - did not sign
Corey Jones - Toledo
Adam Pankey - West Virginia
Will Parks - Arizona
Alkwan Williams - Temple
Of those eight, I can say with some amount of certainty that the staff would probably use the word “loss” to describe Conwell. They worked to try to get Pankey and visited him last week, but ultimately I don’t think they were disappointed that he chose West Virginia (which they expected to happen).
Otherwise, the staff was unmoved by the departures from the class. I think they would have liked to keep Jarrett, but he is not going to qualify, so he’ll go to Milford and probably join Pitt next year. I know that some were of the opinion that Jarrett would be more likely to come back to Pitt if he signed now, but given that Milford coach Bill Chaplick has a good relationship with some of the principles at Pitt, I don’t think there will be any problems with Jarrett getting back to Pitt as long as he takes care of his academics.
The real losses
If there were any real losses or misses, they were the recruits that Pitt was unable to land. The biggest one was J.J. Denman, who signed with Rutgers on Wednesday. Denman was a big-time recruit as a position of need, and I think the staff felt like they had a real opportunity to land him. If Rutgers hadn’t hired former OL coach Kyle Flood as the new head coach, I think Pitt would have had a chance. But that was a home-run hire for Rutgers, at least in terms of landing linemen (we’ll see how it works out on the field).
But obviously signing just two linemen in the class is well short of the goals the staff probably had. As has been well documented on this message board, Pitt is going to be light on linemen this year. Chris Jacobson is almost a lock to return for a sixth year, so the 2012 roster stands to have 14 linemen:
Redshirt seniors (4) - Zenel Demhasaj, Ryan Turnley, Justin Virbitsky, Chris Jacobson
Redshirt juniors (3) - Juantez Hollins, Cory King, Ryan Schlieper
Redshirt sophomores (4) - Arthur Doakes, Shane Johnson, Tom Ricketts, Matt Rotheram
Redshirt freshmen (1) - Artie Rowell
True freshmen (2) - Adam Bisnowaty, Gabe Roberts
You would like to have three or four per class, and that’s the case with the top three classes. But having just three linemen in the bottom two is troubling, and it means that Pitt will need to make a major haul in 2013 linemen.
A final thought
Before we get into the 2013 recruiting, a final thought or two on the class of 2012:
- Pitt landed a class that has some considerable quality, even if it doesn’t address all of the needs (like the OL).
- The top level of the class - Chad Voytik and Rushel Shell - is very good. As good as the top level of the 2009 class (Ray Graham and Dan Mason) and comparable with the top level of the class of 2008 (Jonathan Baldwin, Lucas Nix, Shayne Hale - think of them as recruits).
- Coaching changes can be difficult on recruiting classes, but this one survived rather well.
- I can understand the disappointment in Pitt not adding any “big names” to the class after the coaching change. I think they tried but it didn’t work out.
- That being said, I don’t think it’s a reflection on the staff’s recruiting ability; I don’t think you can really judge a staff on its recruiting until they have a full year to recruit. That’s not making excuses; it’s common-sense reality in the world of recruiting.
- Really, you have to give a staff two years to honestly assess their recruiting ability, but who has that kind of time?
The numbers game
Okay, enough about the past. Let’s look to the future. And let’s start with something we touched on in the section about offensive line recruits.
Let’s talk about numbers. If my calculations are correct, Pitt had 81 players on scholarship during the 2011 season. That leaves four available spots, so we’ll start there.
4
The roster featured 15 seniors and redshirt seniors, but Chris Jacobson will return for a sixth year, so that means 14 spots will be opening.
4+14=18
Freshman tight end Sam Collura also left the team after the season, so that’s one more.
4+14+1=19
Okay. 19 is the number of open spots this year. Pitt signed 16 recruits.
19-16=3 (bear with me; there’s a point to all of this)
They will likely add at least one transfer, but we’ll assume they use the other two scholarships either for another transfer or for walk-ons on the roster. As such, we’ll assume they play with 85 scholarship players on the roster this year.
There are currently 15 juniors and redshirt juniors on the roster who will be seniors and redshirt seniors this fall. Jacobson will be added to that group, so that’s 16. And that’s where we’ll start with the class of 2013.
16
That’s the starting point for available scholarships in the class of 2013. But as we all know, that’s a flexible number, as attrition - through a variety of means - can increase the number. You can sign a maximum of 25 recruits in any given class, although there are some flexibilities in there, depending on roster size and the size of the previous class; that’s a several -hundred page essay in and of itself. Let’s assume that Pitt has a roster of 85 scholarship players this season, which means they could only sign 25.
The real question then becomes how close they can get to 25. 16 is the starting number; will there be enough attrition from the roster to open 9 extra spaces? Probably not (although I’m sure many can - and will - name 9 players they would like to remove to open up extra room).
From the starting point of 16, it’s probably safe to assume that Pitt will find a way to get to 20 or 21. Let’s slide the scale up and assume 21.
The target numbers
So how will the coaches use those 21 spots? Let’s take a look.
(Note: all of this is very preliminary and based on my understanding of the roster and recruiting needs. These numbers will likely evolve over the next year.)
Quarterback
Tino Sunseri will be a redshirt senior this year; in 2013, Pitt will have Mark Myers as a redshirt junior, Trey Anderson as (probably) a redshirt sophomore, and Chad Voytik as a second-year player (most likely redshirt freshman, but perhaps a sophomore if he plays in 2012). The coaches will also have Chandler Kincade waiting in the class of 2014.
They’ll want to take at least one quarterback in the class of 2013, but my guess is they won’t take more than that. The 2013 roster would be Myers-Voytik-Anderson and the 2013 recruit, and that’s probably enough depth. Still, there are quite a few very good quarterback prospects in the class of 2013 that Pitt will have a chance with. Consider these:
Malik Zaire
Eddie Stockett
Damion Terry
Brandon Bossard
Chavas Rawlins
That’s five good quarterbacks; four of them are in Pennsylvania and the fifth (Zaire) is in Dayton. Rawlins and Zaire already have offers from Pitt, and I think the staff will go after the others, too. And those are just the guys on the radar right now. The list will grow, and I wonder if the staff will feel like it has to take two just because there are some good players out there.
For now, though, I think the target number at quarterback is 1.
Running back
Pitt took one running back in the class of 2012 because when that one running back is Rushel Shell, one is all you need. It also helps when the previous class featured three running backs.
Ray Graham will graduate after this season, so the roster for 2013 figures to have upperclassmen in Isaac Bennett, Corey Davis, Malcolm Crocket, and Shell. That’s not a bad group. Assuming none of those three - Bennett, Davis, Crockett - decides there is too much depth and leaves, you would really only need to add one more back to the mix. After all, Pitt carried five running backs this year, and while they had a lot of injuries, they still managed to redshirt Crockett.
Still, the more the merrier when it comes to running backs, so I think Pitt will try to sign two. The problem is that Shell might be a deterrent; Dorian Brown feel the same way.
But there are a lot of running backs out there, and I think Pitt will try to get a couple of them. I think the target number for running backs is 2.
Wide receivers
There are decent numbers at receiver on the roster. Nobody graduates this year and they’re adding the Davis twins, so there will be 13 receivers on the roster this season. Josh Brinson, Cam Saddler, and Mike Shanahan are all done after 2012, so that opens some space, but they’ll still have 10 on the roster for 2013, plus the new recruits who come in.
Now, this is a case where quantity does not necessarily overlap with quality. There are some good players at receiver, but I think they’re probably in the minority. I’m just not sure how much of a future there is for some of the receivers (you can look at the roster and figure out for yourself which players have brighter tomorrow’s than others).
So while there are numbers at receiver, I think the staff needs to add quite a bit in the class of 2013. And there are some big names to add. Jay Harris are legit, too.
That’s just a small sample of the receivers who will be on Pitt’s radar this year. They need to get one of the big-time playmakers; Foster is the biggest of the big-timers, but Wilson, Boyd, and Harris are playmakers, too (although only Wilson has Foster’s combination of size and speed). Then they’ll need to complement the big-timer playmaker with at least one if not two more solid receivers to build some quality depth in the receiving corps.
I think Pitt tries to go strong on receivers this year and signs 3.
Tight end
We all know tight end is going to be an emphasis in Paul Chryst’s offense. Hubie Graham should excel this year, and I think Brendan Carozzoni’s potential as well. Drew Carswell could stay at tight end - or move back, since he basically moved to receiver at the end of last season - since he has the frame to bulk up. But I think Anthony Gonzalez has to find another position, probably on defense although if Chryst is really as adaptive as he claims to be, I think Gonzalez could be used.
Still, they’re going to need more natural tight ends. JP Holtz is a good start in this class, but even that’s tenuous since Holtz can really project at a variety of positions (Chryst said on Wednesday Holtz could play five or six positions; I think an eventual move to the defensive line is a real possibility).
So Pitt’s going to need to hit on some tight ends, and that’s one of the positions we’re going to be working pretty hard to track down this spring. Adam Breneman is the obvious target that everyone wants, but it’s pretty well-assumed that he is headed for Penn State.
Scott Orndorff is another possibility, since he committed to Wisconsin. But I’ve heard mixed reviews on Orndorff, so we’ll see how the staff handles it.
I’ve got a list of potential tight end targets I’m going to be running down; for now, I’ll just say that I think the staff looks to get 2.
Offensive line
Ah yes, the offensive line; the source of much consternation for the fan base and even more for the coaching staff, and rightly so. The line has been a weak spot on the team for much of recent memory, and the last two classes haven’t done much to address those issues, with just three offensive linemen signed in the classes of 2011 and 2012.
Consider the upperclassmen on the roster in 2013:
Redshirt seniors: Juantez Hollins, Cory King, Ryan Schlieper
Redshirt juniors: Arthur Doakes, Shane Johnson, Tom Ricketts, Matt Rotheram
Redshirt sophomores: Artie Rowell
Sophomores/redshirt freshmen: Adam Bisnowaty, Gabe Roberts
Yeah…they need some help, especially when you extrapolate that out to 2014 and subtract Hollins/King/Schlieper; then you’re left with seven linemen and the 2013 recruits. Suffice to say, numbers are low.
So I think Pitt will try to hit for quality and quantity on the line in the class of 2013. Mike McGlinchey, from Philadelphia; the coaching staff is taking a good look at him, and he’s 6’9”. Very intriguing.
I expect the coaching staff to scour the traditional recruiting territories and probably look into the Midwest for linemen, and I think the class will have 4.
Defensive line
Similarly, they need numbers on the defensive line. If Paul Chryst is right and Terrell Jackson is a defensive end, then Pitt will have recruited two defensive tackles in the last three classes (technically Khaynin Mosley-Smith was in two of those classes, but I’m only counting him once). At 285, Jackson will probably grow into a tackle, but that doesn’t change the fact that they need numbers on the line.
Here are the 2013 upperclassmen:
Seniors/redshirt seniors: Aaron Donald, Tyrone Ezell, Jack Lippert
Juniors/redshirt junior: TJ Clemmings, Khaynin Mosley-Smith, Bryan Murphy
Sophomores/redshirt freshmen: Terrell Jackson, Darryl Render
Eight is not very many defensive linemen. Even if players like LaQuentin Smith and Devin Cook move to defensive end, they would have five ends (Smith, Cook, Murphy, Clemmings, Render) and five tackles (Donald, Ezell, Lippert, Mosley-Smith, Jackson). That’s barely enough to play with a healthy rotation.
So the class of 2013 needs to feature linemen on both sides of the ball. Pitt has offers out to some big names like Billy Price. Price is going to have a lot of suitors, but perhaps the Davis twins can help Pitt’s cause.
Pitt also offered Taco Charlton, and while that is going to be a tough one, I think we can all agree it would be great to follow a recruit named Taco.
Regardless, I think Pitt will have to shake a lot of trees on the defensive line and shoot for 4.
Linebackers
It will be interesting to see how Pitt’s linebacker corps shapes up this year now that the Panthers will be back to playing a 4-3. I think a few of the “Panther” linebackers will move to defensive end (my guesses are Bryan Murphy, LaQuentin Smith, and possibly Devin Cook). But I think all of the “Spurs” will stay at linebacker rather than move to safety. That means Todd Thomas, Carl Fleming, and Eric Williams will still be linebackers (in my opinion).
Let’s look at the 2013 upperclassmen:
Redshirt seniors: Shane Gordon, Dan Mason, Carl Fleming
Redshirt juniors: Todd Thomas, Eric Williams
Juniors/redshirt sophomores: Ejuan Price, Nick Grigsby
Sophomores/redshirt freshmen: Mike Caprara, Devon Porchia
That’s actually not a bad group. There are good numbers and good abilities (just think of this year’s possible line of Price-Grigsby or Gordon-Thomas, or some combination thereof). You also have to like the distribution of two players in each class group; that’s a good way to split things up, and I think they’ll continue in that distribution.
Pitt has offers out to handful of 2013 linebackers like TJ Armstrong.
Ultimately, I think Pitt continues with its current class distribution at linebacker and signs 2.
Defensive back
Pitt needed cornerbacks in this class, and they addressed that need with Jahmahl Pardner, Ryan Lewis, and possibly Trenton Coles. They also added safeties in Deaysean Rippy and Bam Bradley. Adding five defensive backs after they added five last year - seven if you include transfers Cullen Christian and Ray Vinopal - may seem like overkill, but not when there were some serious holes at corner and the safeties coming in this year are the caliber of Rippy and Bradley.
But after adding 10 (or 12) defensive backs in two years, the staff can probably take it a little easier this year. There are plenty of targets out there already, including recruits like Clairton’s Tyler Foreman, who said recently that Pitt has shown interest.
We’ll see who else shows up on the radar, but I think will Pitt’s haul of defensive backs will ultimately be 2.
Calculating
All together now, my prediction on each position:
Quarterback: 1
Running back: 2
Wide receiver: 3
Tight end: 2
Offensive line: 4
Defensive line: 4
Linebacker: 2
Defensive back: 2
And I also think they’ll try to land a kicker. That would put the total at 21.
Keep in mind these are all estimations based on my understanding of the roster and the recruiting breakdown. These numbers will likely change over the next year, but I think this is a good starting point.
Now it’s time to cover the class. Josh and I will be rolling out tons of content on 2013 prospects starting today. As always, thanks for reading Panther-Lair.com.
It’s time for another edition of In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com’s rundown of the latest happenings in Pitt recruiting. Today we’re wrapping up Signing Day 2012, breaking down the positional needs, and looking ahead to the class of 2013.
Before and after
And just like that, Signing Day 2012 is gone. After year of buildup, including the ridiculously hectic months of December and January, the class of 2012 is in the books. It’s odd to look back and think about how much time, effort, and energy was expended on the class, because now it’s all about the future and looking ahead.
Before we jump into 2013, though, let’s take one last look at the class that Pitt signed on Wednesday.
The core
I wrote about the Signing Day storylines on Signing Day, but the one that I keep coming back to is this:
The core of the class stuck together. We saw what happened a year ago when the core of the class wasn’t committed to sticking with Pitt; I can’t say that I blame those kids for making the decisions they made, but the contrast between the complete disassembling of that class and the relative sustaining of this class is considerable.
Of course, there are a variety of factors that played into this class sticking together. For starters, Pitt fired the coach last year, leaving a lot of recruits - and assistant coaches - feeling rather bitter about the situation, and the Mike Haywood fiasco was the final straw for a group that tenuously holding on as it was. This year, Todd Graham left Pitt, making Pitt the sympathetic figure. The recruits had no beef with Pitt in this situation, and that made it a lot easier to stick with their commitments.
And you have to give credit to some of the key players in this situation. I’ve written many times about the efforts of Chad Voytik, Rushel Shell, the Davis twins, and Adam Bisnowaty; those guys were key in making sure the class didn’t fall apart, and I’m going to write more about how that came together.
But I haven’t written nearly enough about the efforts of Chris LaSala and Bob Junko. If you’re a Pitt fan, you either know who those two guys are or you should know. LaSala is the Director of Football Operations and Junko is Director of Program Enhancement and Outreach; you won’t find two better representatives of Pitt than LaSala and Junko, and from the time Todd Graham left, those two worked tirelessly to keep the recruits on board.
(As an aside, Paul Chryst made it a point on Wednesday to mention how important LaSala and Junko were; by contrast, Graham marginalized both of them, despite the fact that they could have been his greatest assets in the transition at Pitt.)
The ones that got away
Of course, not all of the recruits stuck with Pitt. Eight previous commitments did not sign with Pitt on Wednesday:
Dakota Conwell - Arizona
Brandyn Cook - Miami (OH)
Marzett Geter - Slippery Rock
Tyrique Jarrett - did not sign
Corey Jones - Toledo
Adam Pankey - West Virginia
Will Parks - Arizona
Alkwan Williams - Temple
Of those eight, I can say with some amount of certainty that the staff would probably use the word “loss” to describe Conwell. They worked to try to get Pankey and visited him last week, but ultimately I don’t think they were disappointed that he chose West Virginia (which they expected to happen).
Otherwise, the staff was unmoved by the departures from the class. I think they would have liked to keep Jarrett, but he is not going to qualify, so he’ll go to Milford and probably join Pitt next year. I know that some were of the opinion that Jarrett would be more likely to come back to Pitt if he signed now, but given that Milford coach Bill Chaplick has a good relationship with some of the principles at Pitt, I don’t think there will be any problems with Jarrett getting back to Pitt as long as he takes care of his academics.
The real losses
If there were any real losses or misses, they were the recruits that Pitt was unable to land. The biggest one was J.J. Denman, who signed with Rutgers on Wednesday. Denman was a big-time recruit as a position of need, and I think the staff felt like they had a real opportunity to land him. If Rutgers hadn’t hired former OL coach Kyle Flood as the new head coach, I think Pitt would have had a chance. But that was a home-run hire for Rutgers, at least in terms of landing linemen (we’ll see how it works out on the field).
But obviously signing just two linemen in the class is well short of the goals the staff probably had. As has been well documented on this message board, Pitt is going to be light on linemen this year. Chris Jacobson is almost a lock to return for a sixth year, so the 2012 roster stands to have 14 linemen:
Redshirt seniors (4) - Zenel Demhasaj, Ryan Turnley, Justin Virbitsky, Chris Jacobson
Redshirt juniors (3) - Juantez Hollins, Cory King, Ryan Schlieper
Redshirt sophomores (4) - Arthur Doakes, Shane Johnson, Tom Ricketts, Matt Rotheram
Redshirt freshmen (1) - Artie Rowell
True freshmen (2) - Adam Bisnowaty, Gabe Roberts
You would like to have three or four per class, and that’s the case with the top three classes. But having just three linemen in the bottom two is troubling, and it means that Pitt will need to make a major haul in 2013 linemen.
A final thought
Before we get into the 2013 recruiting, a final thought or two on the class of 2012:
- Pitt landed a class that has some considerable quality, even if it doesn’t address all of the needs (like the OL).
- The top level of the class - Chad Voytik and Rushel Shell - is very good. As good as the top level of the 2009 class (Ray Graham and Dan Mason) and comparable with the top level of the class of 2008 (Jonathan Baldwin, Lucas Nix, Shayne Hale - think of them as recruits).
- Coaching changes can be difficult on recruiting classes, but this one survived rather well.
- I can understand the disappointment in Pitt not adding any “big names” to the class after the coaching change. I think they tried but it didn’t work out.
- That being said, I don’t think it’s a reflection on the staff’s recruiting ability; I don’t think you can really judge a staff on its recruiting until they have a full year to recruit. That’s not making excuses; it’s common-sense reality in the world of recruiting.
- Really, you have to give a staff two years to honestly assess their recruiting ability, but who has that kind of time?
The numbers game
Okay, enough about the past. Let’s look to the future. And let’s start with something we touched on in the section about offensive line recruits.
Let’s talk about numbers. If my calculations are correct, Pitt had 81 players on scholarship during the 2011 season. That leaves four available spots, so we’ll start there.
4
The roster featured 15 seniors and redshirt seniors, but Chris Jacobson will return for a sixth year, so that means 14 spots will be opening.
4+14=18
Freshman tight end Sam Collura also left the team after the season, so that’s one more.
4+14+1=19
Okay. 19 is the number of open spots this year. Pitt signed 16 recruits.
19-16=3 (bear with me; there’s a point to all of this)
They will likely add at least one transfer, but we’ll assume they use the other two scholarships either for another transfer or for walk-ons on the roster. As such, we’ll assume they play with 85 scholarship players on the roster this year.
There are currently 15 juniors and redshirt juniors on the roster who will be seniors and redshirt seniors this fall. Jacobson will be added to that group, so that’s 16. And that’s where we’ll start with the class of 2013.
16
That’s the starting point for available scholarships in the class of 2013. But as we all know, that’s a flexible number, as attrition - through a variety of means - can increase the number. You can sign a maximum of 25 recruits in any given class, although there are some flexibilities in there, depending on roster size and the size of the previous class; that’s a several -hundred page essay in and of itself. Let’s assume that Pitt has a roster of 85 scholarship players this season, which means they could only sign 25.
The real question then becomes how close they can get to 25. 16 is the starting number; will there be enough attrition from the roster to open 9 extra spaces? Probably not (although I’m sure many can - and will - name 9 players they would like to remove to open up extra room).
From the starting point of 16, it’s probably safe to assume that Pitt will find a way to get to 20 or 21. Let’s slide the scale up and assume 21.
The target numbers
So how will the coaches use those 21 spots? Let’s take a look.
(Note: all of this is very preliminary and based on my understanding of the roster and recruiting needs. These numbers will likely evolve over the next year.)
Quarterback
Tino Sunseri will be a redshirt senior this year; in 2013, Pitt will have Mark Myers as a redshirt junior, Trey Anderson as (probably) a redshirt sophomore, and Chad Voytik as a second-year player (most likely redshirt freshman, but perhaps a sophomore if he plays in 2012). The coaches will also have Chandler Kincade waiting in the class of 2014.
They’ll want to take at least one quarterback in the class of 2013, but my guess is they won’t take more than that. The 2013 roster would be Myers-Voytik-Anderson and the 2013 recruit, and that’s probably enough depth. Still, there are quite a few very good quarterback prospects in the class of 2013 that Pitt will have a chance with. Consider these:
Malik Zaire
Eddie Stockett
Damion Terry
Brandon Bossard
Chavas Rawlins
That’s five good quarterbacks; four of them are in Pennsylvania and the fifth (Zaire) is in Dayton. Rawlins and Zaire already have offers from Pitt, and I think the staff will go after the others, too. And those are just the guys on the radar right now. The list will grow, and I wonder if the staff will feel like it has to take two just because there are some good players out there.
For now, though, I think the target number at quarterback is 1.
Running back
Pitt took one running back in the class of 2012 because when that one running back is Rushel Shell, one is all you need. It also helps when the previous class featured three running backs.
Ray Graham will graduate after this season, so the roster for 2013 figures to have upperclassmen in Isaac Bennett, Corey Davis, Malcolm Crocket, and Shell. That’s not a bad group. Assuming none of those three - Bennett, Davis, Crockett - decides there is too much depth and leaves, you would really only need to add one more back to the mix. After all, Pitt carried five running backs this year, and while they had a lot of injuries, they still managed to redshirt Crockett.
Still, the more the merrier when it comes to running backs, so I think Pitt will try to sign two. The problem is that Shell might be a deterrent; Dorian Brown feel the same way.
But there are a lot of running backs out there, and I think Pitt will try to get a couple of them. I think the target number for running backs is 2.
Wide receivers
There are decent numbers at receiver on the roster. Nobody graduates this year and they’re adding the Davis twins, so there will be 13 receivers on the roster this season. Josh Brinson, Cam Saddler, and Mike Shanahan are all done after 2012, so that opens some space, but they’ll still have 10 on the roster for 2013, plus the new recruits who come in.
Now, this is a case where quantity does not necessarily overlap with quality. There are some good players at receiver, but I think they’re probably in the minority. I’m just not sure how much of a future there is for some of the receivers (you can look at the roster and figure out for yourself which players have brighter tomorrow’s than others).
So while there are numbers at receiver, I think the staff needs to add quite a bit in the class of 2013. And there are some big names to add. Jay Harris are legit, too.
That’s just a small sample of the receivers who will be on Pitt’s radar this year. They need to get one of the big-time playmakers; Foster is the biggest of the big-timers, but Wilson, Boyd, and Harris are playmakers, too (although only Wilson has Foster’s combination of size and speed). Then they’ll need to complement the big-timer playmaker with at least one if not two more solid receivers to build some quality depth in the receiving corps.
I think Pitt tries to go strong on receivers this year and signs 3.
Tight end
We all know tight end is going to be an emphasis in Paul Chryst’s offense. Hubie Graham should excel this year, and I think Brendan Carozzoni’s potential as well. Drew Carswell could stay at tight end - or move back, since he basically moved to receiver at the end of last season - since he has the frame to bulk up. But I think Anthony Gonzalez has to find another position, probably on defense although if Chryst is really as adaptive as he claims to be, I think Gonzalez could be used.
Still, they’re going to need more natural tight ends. JP Holtz is a good start in this class, but even that’s tenuous since Holtz can really project at a variety of positions (Chryst said on Wednesday Holtz could play five or six positions; I think an eventual move to the defensive line is a real possibility).
So Pitt’s going to need to hit on some tight ends, and that’s one of the positions we’re going to be working pretty hard to track down this spring. Adam Breneman is the obvious target that everyone wants, but it’s pretty well-assumed that he is headed for Penn State.
Scott Orndorff is another possibility, since he committed to Wisconsin. But I’ve heard mixed reviews on Orndorff, so we’ll see how the staff handles it.
I’ve got a list of potential tight end targets I’m going to be running down; for now, I’ll just say that I think the staff looks to get 2.
Offensive line
Ah yes, the offensive line; the source of much consternation for the fan base and even more for the coaching staff, and rightly so. The line has been a weak spot on the team for much of recent memory, and the last two classes haven’t done much to address those issues, with just three offensive linemen signed in the classes of 2011 and 2012.
Consider the upperclassmen on the roster in 2013:
Redshirt seniors: Juantez Hollins, Cory King, Ryan Schlieper
Redshirt juniors: Arthur Doakes, Shane Johnson, Tom Ricketts, Matt Rotheram
Redshirt sophomores: Artie Rowell
Sophomores/redshirt freshmen: Adam Bisnowaty, Gabe Roberts
Yeah…they need some help, especially when you extrapolate that out to 2014 and subtract Hollins/King/Schlieper; then you’re left with seven linemen and the 2013 recruits. Suffice to say, numbers are low.
So I think Pitt will try to hit for quality and quantity on the line in the class of 2013. Mike McGlinchey, from Philadelphia; the coaching staff is taking a good look at him, and he’s 6’9”. Very intriguing.
I expect the coaching staff to scour the traditional recruiting territories and probably look into the Midwest for linemen, and I think the class will have 4.
Defensive line
Similarly, they need numbers on the defensive line. If Paul Chryst is right and Terrell Jackson is a defensive end, then Pitt will have recruited two defensive tackles in the last three classes (technically Khaynin Mosley-Smith was in two of those classes, but I’m only counting him once). At 285, Jackson will probably grow into a tackle, but that doesn’t change the fact that they need numbers on the line.
Here are the 2013 upperclassmen:
Seniors/redshirt seniors: Aaron Donald, Tyrone Ezell, Jack Lippert
Juniors/redshirt junior: TJ Clemmings, Khaynin Mosley-Smith, Bryan Murphy
Sophomores/redshirt freshmen: Terrell Jackson, Darryl Render
Eight is not very many defensive linemen. Even if players like LaQuentin Smith and Devin Cook move to defensive end, they would have five ends (Smith, Cook, Murphy, Clemmings, Render) and five tackles (Donald, Ezell, Lippert, Mosley-Smith, Jackson). That’s barely enough to play with a healthy rotation.
So the class of 2013 needs to feature linemen on both sides of the ball. Pitt has offers out to some big names like Billy Price. Price is going to have a lot of suitors, but perhaps the Davis twins can help Pitt’s cause.
Pitt also offered Taco Charlton, and while that is going to be a tough one, I think we can all agree it would be great to follow a recruit named Taco.
Regardless, I think Pitt will have to shake a lot of trees on the defensive line and shoot for 4.
Linebackers
It will be interesting to see how Pitt’s linebacker corps shapes up this year now that the Panthers will be back to playing a 4-3. I think a few of the “Panther” linebackers will move to defensive end (my guesses are Bryan Murphy, LaQuentin Smith, and possibly Devin Cook). But I think all of the “Spurs” will stay at linebacker rather than move to safety. That means Todd Thomas, Carl Fleming, and Eric Williams will still be linebackers (in my opinion).
Let’s look at the 2013 upperclassmen:
Redshirt seniors: Shane Gordon, Dan Mason, Carl Fleming
Redshirt juniors: Todd Thomas, Eric Williams
Juniors/redshirt sophomores: Ejuan Price, Nick Grigsby
Sophomores/redshirt freshmen: Mike Caprara, Devon Porchia
That’s actually not a bad group. There are good numbers and good abilities (just think of this year’s possible line of Price-Grigsby or Gordon-Thomas, or some combination thereof). You also have to like the distribution of two players in each class group; that’s a good way to split things up, and I think they’ll continue in that distribution.
Pitt has offers out to handful of 2013 linebackers like TJ Armstrong.
Ultimately, I think Pitt continues with its current class distribution at linebacker and signs 2.
Defensive back
Pitt needed cornerbacks in this class, and they addressed that need with Jahmahl Pardner, Ryan Lewis, and possibly Trenton Coles. They also added safeties in Deaysean Rippy and Bam Bradley. Adding five defensive backs after they added five last year - seven if you include transfers Cullen Christian and Ray Vinopal - may seem like overkill, but not when there were some serious holes at corner and the safeties coming in this year are the caliber of Rippy and Bradley.
But after adding 10 (or 12) defensive backs in two years, the staff can probably take it a little easier this year. There are plenty of targets out there already, including recruits like Clairton’s Tyler Foreman, who said recently that Pitt has shown interest.
We’ll see who else shows up on the radar, but I think will Pitt’s haul of defensive backs will ultimately be 2.
Calculating
All together now, my prediction on each position:
Quarterback: 1
Running back: 2
Wide receiver: 3
Tight end: 2
Offensive line: 4
Defensive line: 4
Linebacker: 2
Defensive back: 2
And I also think they’ll try to land a kicker. That would put the total at 21.
Keep in mind these are all estimations based on my understanding of the roster and the recruiting breakdown. These numbers will likely change over the next year, but I think this is a good starting point.
Now it’s time to cover the class. Josh and I will be rolling out tons of content on 2013 prospects starting today. As always, thanks for reading Panther-Lair.com.
