July 3, 2011
Welcome back to In the Pitt, PantherLair.com’s breakdown of Pitt recruiting. It’s been awhile since we rolled out a new edition of In the Pitt, but with June in the rearview and July underway, it seemed like a good time to get it going once again.
Top of the Pitt
Today’s In the Pitt is naturally focused on the 2012 recruiting class: where it is and where it’s going. So we’ll start the look at the class with a breakdown of the offensive targets and recruiting situation.
Before we jump into it, there are a few resources worth having on hand during this discussion:
The 2012 offer sheethttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/offerlist.asp?SID=996&Sport=1&Year=2012&School=62
The 2012 commitment listhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/pittsburgh/football/recruiting/commitments/2012
The 2011 Scholarship Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=1219010
Each of those charts plays a valuable role in a discussion of Pitt’s recruiting situation with the class of 2012. The offer sheet gives you a pretty good overview of who Pitt is recruiting in the class, and the commitment list parses the offer sheet down to the players who have already picked Pitt.
The Scholarship Board is a key element, too, and one you should familiarize yourself with. As it pertains to recruiting, the Scholarship Board provides useful info when one is operating with the “three-year-out rule.”
The three-year-out rule
The “three-year-out” rule is a loose guideline for recruiting that says you line up your target numbers on each position based on three-year projections. The idea is that the players you recruit this year will be in position to contribute when they have sophomore eligibility, thus replacing the current players with sophomore eligibility.
In theory, that would mean that recruits in the class of 2012 will be looked at to replace players who came in the recruiting class of 2009.
Of course, the “three-year-out” rule relies largely on best-case scenarios: ideally, every recruit would redshirt and be in his third year with the program when he has sophomore eligibility. Also, ideally every recruit would be ready to contribute by his redshirt sophomore season. And, ideally you won’t have to player any player prior to his third year in the program.
We know that none of those conditions are guaranteed, but you also can’t predict injuries, academic casualties, or the player who bursts onto the scene as a freshman and leaves after his sophomore year (like Dion Lewis).
So while the “three-year-out” rule is not a perfect scenario, it does offer a basic guideline by which to build a class. Of course, several elements can thwart the intent of the “three-year-out” rule, like immediate need at a position - such as running back last year - or a change in philosophy that creates a need at a position.
All things being equal, though, coaches generally recruit by the “three-year-out” rule (and there is an inherent logic in the concept, so even if a coach doesn’t acknowledge the idea, he’s probably operating on it anyway, where he knows it or not).
So as we look at the class of 2012 and consider the top targets and target numbers at each position - starting today with the offense - we’ll consider four factors:
- Who the players in the class of 2012 will be replacing in three years (current sophomore-eligible players who will be seniors in 2013)
- Who the upperclassmen will be in 2014, when the current recruits are in their third years
- The target number at each position for the class of 2012
- The top targets at each position.
As Todd Graham told us this week, Pitt will probably look to take “18-20” recruits in this class. Naturally, that number is always in motion and never a set figure - even after Signing Day; look at what has occurred over the past four months - but we’ll use it as a general base. I think it will be close to an even split between offense and defense, along with a kicker. Today, though, we’ll focus on offense.
Quarterback
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Mark Myers
Anthony Gonzalez
There are considerable gaps on the Scholarship Board at quarterback, largely due to the fact that Pitt’s only quarterback recruit in the class of 2009 was Kolby Gray, who left Pitt after spending time at safety. So as it stands now, the most veteran quarterback on the 2014 roster will most likely come from the current recruiting class.
2014 will be Graham’s fourth season with the Panthers, so it’s almost an understatement to say that landing big-time quarterback in this class is of the utmost importance. It’s crucial, actually.
Top targets: Chad Voytik
Voytik is the top target. Pitt has made this clear to Voytik and any other quarterback they have talked to. They have prioritized him as No. 1 on the board, and to a certain extent, they have put many - if not all - of their eggs in the Cleveland, Tenn., standout’s basket.
Target number: 1 Voytik is Pitt’s top target, and I think his commitment would satisfy the coaching staff, although the future depth situation may lead to them to still consider taking an additional player at the position, most likely a recruit with position versatility.
What’s becoming more and more problematic, though, is that “next-tier” targets like Perry Hills are coming off the board. The Pitt coaches thought highly of Appleby, but they could not do enough to convince him to hold off on a commitment while they wait to see what happens with Voytik, and Appleby committed to Purdue this week.
Pitt is looking at a number of quarterbacks, but Voytik’s commitment - most likely at some point in July - will have some long-reaching impact. If he commits elsewhere, then two things become absolutely essential:
- Making sure Mark Myers and Anthony Gonzalez don’t even consider transferring
- Getting a big-time quarterback in the class of 2013
The significance of Voytik can’t be overstated. I believe the coaching staff is confident about him, and they probably should be; if I was a coach, I wouldn’t want to consider the possible outcomes if he were to commit elsewhere.
Running back
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Derrick Burns - redshirt senior
Isaac Bennett - senior/redshirt junior
Jeremiah Bryson - senior/redshirt junior
Malcolm Crockett - senior/redshirt junior
Corey Davis - senior/redshirt junior
The lack of any scholarship running backs on the roster beyond Ray Graham made the position a priority in the class of 2011, so Pitt went all-out and signed four. I’m not sure that all four will play this season - particularly after Pitt added redshirt senior transfer Zach Brown - but at least two will see the field, and possibly more.
If I were placing odds on who sees the field, I’d probably go with Corey Davis and Isaac Bennett, in that order. Of course, if Bennett is one of the running backs who gets on the field, then I’m guessing Jeremiah Bryson will also play, since Bennett appears to project at the 3-back/fullback/H-back role rather than traditional tailback. Which would then create a need for an additional tailback to play, assuming Pitt uses four scholarship tailbacks this season.
So, potentially three of those incoming freshmen will be seniors in 2014, when the players in the recruiting class of 2012 will be in their third years of eligibility (junior/redshirt sophomore).
Technically, Pitt could get away without taking any running backs in the class, but there are a lot of good backs that the coaching staff is involved with, so that’s not likely to happen.
Top targets: Tavarreon Dickerson
Obviously Shell is the top target at the position and probably one of the top targets on the overall board (behind Voytik, of course), but the coaching staff has invested pretty serious time on Mahone as well. And I think that time has been well-spent, because Mahone is very high on the Panthers. Penn State is pushing pretty hard for him, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he picks between the two Pennsylvania schools.
As for the rest of the board, Dickerson recently put Pitt in his top two, so that seems to bode well for the Panthers. Harris probably projects at the three-back (H-back) position, so he is somewhat unique from the other recruits at this position. Garmon has kept Pitt in his top six, but I don’t see much future there.
Target number: 2 I’m setting the number low while thinking that Pitt won’t get Harris. I don’t have a lot of info on him - although he has put Pitt in his top two with Virginia Tech - but if they do land Harris, then I would expect Pitt to take two tailbacks plus Harris, so that would put the number at three. Otherwise, I’m guessing they’ll just go with two tailbacks, particularly if one of those two is either Mahone or Shell.
If Mahone and Shell both go elsewhere, then I would expect Pitt to take three tailbacks, since they’d be working on the next level of recruits.
Wide receiver
2013 seniors
Devin Street
Ed Tinker
2014 upperclassmen
Brendon Felder - redshirt senior
Kevin Weatherspoon - redshirt senior
Salath Williams - redshirt senior
Justin Jackson - senior/redshirt junior
Ronald Jones - senior/redshirt junior
Darius Patton - senior/redshirt junior
Pitt added three receivers in the class of 2011 (Jackson, Jones, Patton) but not a lot of size, with Jackson the tallest of the group at 6’3”. Of course, size isn’t the key ingredient for receivers in Pitt’s new offense, but the system does seem more complete with at least one tall receiver.
Then again, Pitt’s not in his top five).
So perhaps the emphasis truly is more on speed than on size, although that’s affected at least in part by the available recruits.
Top targets: Chaz Whittaker
The Davis twins have made no secret of how they feel about Pitt, and I think it’s safe to call Pitt their No. 1 school. They both will attend the same school, which keeps Oregon out of the picture for Demitrious (the Ducks haven’t offered Chris), and if the twins commit to Pitt, it should and will help Pitt’s efforts with Mahone.
Pitt seems like it is in good shape for Nixon, Jones, and Whittaker; all three project on both sides of the ball, with Jones and Nixon at cornerback and Whittaker at safety. Lewis recently put Pitt in his top five, but it still seems like he is favoring Penn State.
Pitt has also lost a couple targets off the board at receiver in Cameron Wilson (Iowa).
Target number: 3 While Pitt doesn’t necessarily need three receivers in this class, they already have a commitment from Coles, and I think they’ll add the Davis brothers, so that puts the number at three.
Even if that happens, I think they’ll still pursue Nixon, Jones, and Whittaker, since all three could play defense. In fact, I think Nixon may be on Pitt’s board as a cornerback rather than a receiver, so perhaps we should include him in the defensive breakdown next week.
Offensive line
2013 seniors
Juantez Hollins
Cory King
Ryan Schlieper
2014 upperclassmen
Arthur Doakes - redshirt senior
Shane Johnson - redshirt senior
Matt Rotheram - redshirt senior
Brandon Sacco - redshirt senior
Artie Rowell - senior/redshirt junior
Pitt only signed one offensive lineman in the class of 2011 (although Sam Collura could potentially move to the line), so there’s a need for numbers in the class of 2012. More importantly, of course, is the need for quality, particularly given the state of Pitt’s o-line recruiting the past few years.
The problem is, a number of high-quality linemen are already off the board, like Ian Park.
That leaves Pitt in the tough situation of needing talent and quality, but not having - at this point, anyway - a lot to pick from.
Top targets: Tony Matteo
Cook is on board as a center commitment, but that’s just a start. Pitt needs recruits in this class at every position on the line, both tackle and guard. That’s why Bisnowaty is a priority: he has the size to play tackle and looks like his best days are ahead of him. Pitt’s battle for his commitment, though, is a tough one. But it’s one the coaching staff has to fight, because Bisnowaty is the best chance the Panthers have at landing a top tackle in this class.
Kalis and Pankey are also very good tackles, but neither seems likely for Pitt.
Jarrett has good size and projects at guard, but we have heard that his grades are pretty rough; while he has a year to get things in order, that doesn’t appear likely. I don’t have a good feel for Matteo yet, but he has said he plans to visit Pitt this summer.
Target number: 4 With Cook on board, Pitt needs three more offensive linemen. Given the current status of the recruits Pitt has offered, the coaching staff may be focused on watching for senior-year developers, i.e. recruits who come into their own during their senior seasons.
That’s not the worst approach, but it does require holding out and during thorough evaluations. Avoiding panic is a key in recruiting, and the Pitt coaching staff needs to adhere to that as well. They cannot get nervous about offensive line recruiting and extend offers to lower-tier recruits who aren’t on the BCS level.
Missing on offensive linemen en masse is a recipe for disaster.
In conclusion
I realize I left tight end out of the list, and that’s for good reason: I don’t really see Pitt taking a tight end in this class. A handful of players are still on the board at that position, like JP Holtz, but I don’t really get a strong Pitt-lean from either one, and if both go elsewhere, I don’t think the Pitt coaches would bemoan the losses too much.
Ultimately, the tight end position isn’t as crucial in the new offense. Plus, Pitt has two redshirt freshmen in Andrew Carswell and Brendan Carozzoni, as well as redshirt sophomore Brock DeCicco. DeCicco will actually play tight end this year, but Carswell and possibly Carozzoni will line up at the three-back/H-back position, which will be more of a focus in coming seasons.
Overall, this is a pretty important class at a number of positions - quarterback and offensive line, in particular - but it’s too early to tell how that will shape up. Voytik is obviously the key at quarterback, but the coaches may have to wait on offensive linemen, which isn’t the worst option.
As I said above, the key is to not panic. The coaches need to be patient and not overreact to developments in the recruiting world. If Voytik commits to Mississippi State, then yes, the coaches need to put the full-court press on other quarterback targets. But if Bisnowaty were to commit to another school, the coaches have to be careful not to overreact and extend offers to recruits who are not deserving.
Tune in next week for the defensive breakdown, and we’ll work to keep In the Pitt rolling all summer for the latest on Pitt recruiting.
This post was edited on 7/5 9:14 AM by Chris Peak
Welcome back to In the Pitt, PantherLair.com’s breakdown of Pitt recruiting. It’s been awhile since we rolled out a new edition of In the Pitt, but with June in the rearview and July underway, it seemed like a good time to get it going once again.
Top of the Pitt
Today’s In the Pitt is naturally focused on the 2012 recruiting class: where it is and where it’s going. So we’ll start the look at the class with a breakdown of the offensive targets and recruiting situation.
Before we jump into it, there are a few resources worth having on hand during this discussion:
The 2012 offer sheethttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/offerlist.asp?SID=996&Sport=1&Year=2012&School=62
The 2012 commitment listhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/pittsburgh/football/recruiting/commitments/2012
The 2011 Scholarship Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=1219010
Each of those charts plays a valuable role in a discussion of Pitt’s recruiting situation with the class of 2012. The offer sheet gives you a pretty good overview of who Pitt is recruiting in the class, and the commitment list parses the offer sheet down to the players who have already picked Pitt.
The Scholarship Board is a key element, too, and one you should familiarize yourself with. As it pertains to recruiting, the Scholarship Board provides useful info when one is operating with the “three-year-out rule.”
The three-year-out rule
The “three-year-out” rule is a loose guideline for recruiting that says you line up your target numbers on each position based on three-year projections. The idea is that the players you recruit this year will be in position to contribute when they have sophomore eligibility, thus replacing the current players with sophomore eligibility.
In theory, that would mean that recruits in the class of 2012 will be looked at to replace players who came in the recruiting class of 2009.
Of course, the “three-year-out” rule relies largely on best-case scenarios: ideally, every recruit would redshirt and be in his third year with the program when he has sophomore eligibility. Also, ideally every recruit would be ready to contribute by his redshirt sophomore season. And, ideally you won’t have to player any player prior to his third year in the program.
We know that none of those conditions are guaranteed, but you also can’t predict injuries, academic casualties, or the player who bursts onto the scene as a freshman and leaves after his sophomore year (like Dion Lewis).
So while the “three-year-out” rule is not a perfect scenario, it does offer a basic guideline by which to build a class. Of course, several elements can thwart the intent of the “three-year-out” rule, like immediate need at a position - such as running back last year - or a change in philosophy that creates a need at a position.
All things being equal, though, coaches generally recruit by the “three-year-out” rule (and there is an inherent logic in the concept, so even if a coach doesn’t acknowledge the idea, he’s probably operating on it anyway, where he knows it or not).
So as we look at the class of 2012 and consider the top targets and target numbers at each position - starting today with the offense - we’ll consider four factors:
- Who the players in the class of 2012 will be replacing in three years (current sophomore-eligible players who will be seniors in 2013)
- Who the upperclassmen will be in 2014, when the current recruits are in their third years
- The target number at each position for the class of 2012
- The top targets at each position.
As Todd Graham told us this week, Pitt will probably look to take “18-20” recruits in this class. Naturally, that number is always in motion and never a set figure - even after Signing Day; look at what has occurred over the past four months - but we’ll use it as a general base. I think it will be close to an even split between offense and defense, along with a kicker. Today, though, we’ll focus on offense.
Quarterback
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Mark Myers
Anthony Gonzalez
There are considerable gaps on the Scholarship Board at quarterback, largely due to the fact that Pitt’s only quarterback recruit in the class of 2009 was Kolby Gray, who left Pitt after spending time at safety. So as it stands now, the most veteran quarterback on the 2014 roster will most likely come from the current recruiting class.
2014 will be Graham’s fourth season with the Panthers, so it’s almost an understatement to say that landing big-time quarterback in this class is of the utmost importance. It’s crucial, actually.
Top targets: Chad Voytik
Voytik is the top target. Pitt has made this clear to Voytik and any other quarterback they have talked to. They have prioritized him as No. 1 on the board, and to a certain extent, they have put many - if not all - of their eggs in the Cleveland, Tenn., standout’s basket.
Target number: 1 Voytik is Pitt’s top target, and I think his commitment would satisfy the coaching staff, although the future depth situation may lead to them to still consider taking an additional player at the position, most likely a recruit with position versatility.
What’s becoming more and more problematic, though, is that “next-tier” targets like Perry Hills are coming off the board. The Pitt coaches thought highly of Appleby, but they could not do enough to convince him to hold off on a commitment while they wait to see what happens with Voytik, and Appleby committed to Purdue this week.
Pitt is looking at a number of quarterbacks, but Voytik’s commitment - most likely at some point in July - will have some long-reaching impact. If he commits elsewhere, then two things become absolutely essential:
- Making sure Mark Myers and Anthony Gonzalez don’t even consider transferring
- Getting a big-time quarterback in the class of 2013
The significance of Voytik can’t be overstated. I believe the coaching staff is confident about him, and they probably should be; if I was a coach, I wouldn’t want to consider the possible outcomes if he were to commit elsewhere.
Running back
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Derrick Burns - redshirt senior
Isaac Bennett - senior/redshirt junior
Jeremiah Bryson - senior/redshirt junior
Malcolm Crockett - senior/redshirt junior
Corey Davis - senior/redshirt junior
The lack of any scholarship running backs on the roster beyond Ray Graham made the position a priority in the class of 2011, so Pitt went all-out and signed four. I’m not sure that all four will play this season - particularly after Pitt added redshirt senior transfer Zach Brown - but at least two will see the field, and possibly more.
If I were placing odds on who sees the field, I’d probably go with Corey Davis and Isaac Bennett, in that order. Of course, if Bennett is one of the running backs who gets on the field, then I’m guessing Jeremiah Bryson will also play, since Bennett appears to project at the 3-back/fullback/H-back role rather than traditional tailback. Which would then create a need for an additional tailback to play, assuming Pitt uses four scholarship tailbacks this season.
So, potentially three of those incoming freshmen will be seniors in 2014, when the players in the recruiting class of 2012 will be in their third years of eligibility (junior/redshirt sophomore).
Technically, Pitt could get away without taking any running backs in the class, but there are a lot of good backs that the coaching staff is involved with, so that’s not likely to happen.
Top targets: Tavarreon Dickerson
Obviously Shell is the top target at the position and probably one of the top targets on the overall board (behind Voytik, of course), but the coaching staff has invested pretty serious time on Mahone as well. And I think that time has been well-spent, because Mahone is very high on the Panthers. Penn State is pushing pretty hard for him, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he picks between the two Pennsylvania schools.
As for the rest of the board, Dickerson recently put Pitt in his top two, so that seems to bode well for the Panthers. Harris probably projects at the three-back (H-back) position, so he is somewhat unique from the other recruits at this position. Garmon has kept Pitt in his top six, but I don’t see much future there.
Target number: 2 I’m setting the number low while thinking that Pitt won’t get Harris. I don’t have a lot of info on him - although he has put Pitt in his top two with Virginia Tech - but if they do land Harris, then I would expect Pitt to take two tailbacks plus Harris, so that would put the number at three. Otherwise, I’m guessing they’ll just go with two tailbacks, particularly if one of those two is either Mahone or Shell.
If Mahone and Shell both go elsewhere, then I would expect Pitt to take three tailbacks, since they’d be working on the next level of recruits.
Wide receiver
2013 seniors
Devin Street
Ed Tinker
2014 upperclassmen
Brendon Felder - redshirt senior
Kevin Weatherspoon - redshirt senior
Salath Williams - redshirt senior
Justin Jackson - senior/redshirt junior
Ronald Jones - senior/redshirt junior
Darius Patton - senior/redshirt junior
Pitt added three receivers in the class of 2011 (Jackson, Jones, Patton) but not a lot of size, with Jackson the tallest of the group at 6’3”. Of course, size isn’t the key ingredient for receivers in Pitt’s new offense, but the system does seem more complete with at least one tall receiver.
Then again, Pitt’s not in his top five).
So perhaps the emphasis truly is more on speed than on size, although that’s affected at least in part by the available recruits.
Top targets: Chaz Whittaker
The Davis twins have made no secret of how they feel about Pitt, and I think it’s safe to call Pitt their No. 1 school. They both will attend the same school, which keeps Oregon out of the picture for Demitrious (the Ducks haven’t offered Chris), and if the twins commit to Pitt, it should and will help Pitt’s efforts with Mahone.
Pitt seems like it is in good shape for Nixon, Jones, and Whittaker; all three project on both sides of the ball, with Jones and Nixon at cornerback and Whittaker at safety. Lewis recently put Pitt in his top five, but it still seems like he is favoring Penn State.
Pitt has also lost a couple targets off the board at receiver in Cameron Wilson (Iowa).
Target number: 3 While Pitt doesn’t necessarily need three receivers in this class, they already have a commitment from Coles, and I think they’ll add the Davis brothers, so that puts the number at three.
Even if that happens, I think they’ll still pursue Nixon, Jones, and Whittaker, since all three could play defense. In fact, I think Nixon may be on Pitt’s board as a cornerback rather than a receiver, so perhaps we should include him in the defensive breakdown next week.
Offensive line
2013 seniors
Juantez Hollins
Cory King
Ryan Schlieper
2014 upperclassmen
Arthur Doakes - redshirt senior
Shane Johnson - redshirt senior
Matt Rotheram - redshirt senior
Brandon Sacco - redshirt senior
Artie Rowell - senior/redshirt junior
Pitt only signed one offensive lineman in the class of 2011 (although Sam Collura could potentially move to the line), so there’s a need for numbers in the class of 2012. More importantly, of course, is the need for quality, particularly given the state of Pitt’s o-line recruiting the past few years.
The problem is, a number of high-quality linemen are already off the board, like Ian Park.
That leaves Pitt in the tough situation of needing talent and quality, but not having - at this point, anyway - a lot to pick from.
Top targets: Tony Matteo
Cook is on board as a center commitment, but that’s just a start. Pitt needs recruits in this class at every position on the line, both tackle and guard. That’s why Bisnowaty is a priority: he has the size to play tackle and looks like his best days are ahead of him. Pitt’s battle for his commitment, though, is a tough one. But it’s one the coaching staff has to fight, because Bisnowaty is the best chance the Panthers have at landing a top tackle in this class.
Kalis and Pankey are also very good tackles, but neither seems likely for Pitt.
Jarrett has good size and projects at guard, but we have heard that his grades are pretty rough; while he has a year to get things in order, that doesn’t appear likely. I don’t have a good feel for Matteo yet, but he has said he plans to visit Pitt this summer.
Target number: 4 With Cook on board, Pitt needs three more offensive linemen. Given the current status of the recruits Pitt has offered, the coaching staff may be focused on watching for senior-year developers, i.e. recruits who come into their own during their senior seasons.
That’s not the worst approach, but it does require holding out and during thorough evaluations. Avoiding panic is a key in recruiting, and the Pitt coaching staff needs to adhere to that as well. They cannot get nervous about offensive line recruiting and extend offers to lower-tier recruits who aren’t on the BCS level.
Missing on offensive linemen en masse is a recipe for disaster.
In conclusion
I realize I left tight end out of the list, and that’s for good reason: I don’t really see Pitt taking a tight end in this class. A handful of players are still on the board at that position, like JP Holtz, but I don’t really get a strong Pitt-lean from either one, and if both go elsewhere, I don’t think the Pitt coaches would bemoan the losses too much.
Ultimately, the tight end position isn’t as crucial in the new offense. Plus, Pitt has two redshirt freshmen in Andrew Carswell and Brendan Carozzoni, as well as redshirt sophomore Brock DeCicco. DeCicco will actually play tight end this year, but Carswell and possibly Carozzoni will line up at the three-back/H-back position, which will be more of a focus in coming seasons.
Overall, this is a pretty important class at a number of positions - quarterback and offensive line, in particular - but it’s too early to tell how that will shape up. Voytik is obviously the key at quarterback, but the coaches may have to wait on offensive linemen, which isn’t the worst option.
As I said above, the key is to not panic. The coaches need to be patient and not overreact to developments in the recruiting world. If Voytik commits to Mississippi State, then yes, the coaches need to put the full-court press on other quarterback targets. But if Bisnowaty were to commit to another school, the coaches have to be careful not to overreact and extend offers to recruits who are not deserving.
Tune in next week for the defensive breakdown, and we’ll work to keep In the Pitt rolling all summer for the latest on Pitt recruiting.
This post was edited on 7/5 9:14 AM by Chris Peak
