August 26, 2011
Training camp is over and the 2011 season is right around the corner, so it's time for another edition of In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com's comprehensive review of everything going on in Pitt recruiting. To make it a little less of a novel, we're breaking up the breakdown into two sections: offense this week, defense next week.
Top of the Pitt
It's been awhile since we rolled out an edition of In the Pitt, but this week seems like a good time to break it out. The goal for today is an offensive position-by-position breakdown of the class of 2012: what Pitt has, what Pitt needs, and what Pitt wants.
Let's start with the key resources you'll want to keep handy:
The 2012 commitment list
The 2012 offer sheet
The Scholarship Board
All three are valuable resources that are pretty essential when you want to figure out what a class will look like. Let's start with The Scholarship Board.
(A lot of you have heard the "Three-Year-Out" rule before, but there are a lot of new faces on the board, so we'll go through it again).
The "Three-Year-Out" rule is my term for a general rule-of-thumb in recruiting. Simply put, you recruit the current class to be ready to contribute in their third year of eligibility, so you look at the players on the current roster who will graduate three years from now. In theory, the current class will be expected to replace those players who currently have sophomore eligibility.
The "Three-Year-Out" rule does operate on a few ideal circumstances; for starters, it assumes that all recruits redshirt. It also assumes that there aren't any glaring holes in the roster that need to be addressed with the current class - as was the case at running back last season - and that all players stay with the team through the completion of their eligibility.
Obviously these are circumstances that don't always apply, but they are reliable in the majority of situations. And even if a coach won't specifically say he is recruiting three-years-out, the concept is probably driving the recruiting regardless.
So, as we look at the position breakdown, we'll be keeping the "Three-Year-Out" rule in mind and reference it. We'll also point out when the rule doesn't apply and special circumstances are at work.
The Count
Now it's time to come up with a target number for the class. The basic starting figure will be the number of current seniors, since those are the scholarships that will come immediately available for the recruits in the class of 2012. So let's go back to the Scholarship Board:
Pitt currently has 15 seniors on scholarship. So the starting number is 15.
They're going to sign more than 15 recruits, but the question is how many. Pitt enters the 2011 season with 81 players on scholarship, which means they could give four scholarships to walk-ons for the current season. In some cases, coaches have awarded scholarships to walk-ons but not renewed them the following season (remember: scholarships are renewed on a year-to-year basis).
My guess is that freshman quarterback Trey Anderson and transfer EJ Banks will get two of the scholarships, and those two will be renewed through the expiration of those players' eligibility. I'd guess the same would apply to Matt Yoklic, who will be Pitt's starting punter this season.
Those are relevant because that leaves just one scholarship to be given to a walk-on and not renewed next year, thus making it available for an incoming recruit.
That one would put the number at 16. There will be some attrition, but it's impossible to guess how much. I don't suspect Pitt will lose nine players from the current roster this offseason, which is the number they'd need to lose in order to get to the full complement of 25 in the class.
Todd Graham told me this summer that he expected Pitt to sign 18-20 recruits in the class; coaches inevitably sign more than they predict, so it will probably end up in the 20-22 range. Let's set 21 as a working target number for the class, with the understanding that it wouldn't be a surprise if they sign as many as 22.
If we reference back to the Commitment List, Pitt has 13 players committed in the class of 2012, which leaves eight spots for the rest of the class if they go for 21.
Let's see where those other eight will come from.
(As we go position-by-position, we'll list several items: the 2013 seniors (who will graduate right before the 2012 recruits are in their third years); the 2014 upperclassmen (who will be on the roster when the 2012 recruits are in their third years); the target numbers at each position; the committed recruits; and the top targets.)
Quarterback
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Mark Myers (redshirt senior)
Anthony Gonzalez (redshirt senior)
Trey Anderson (redshirt junior)
Obviously there are some assumptions there. For starters, we're assuming that none of the three transfer between now and then. We're also including Gonzalez with the quarterbacks, although my guess is he'll be a permanent fixture at H-back by then.
In a sense, the Three-Year-Rule would say Pitt doesn't need a quarterback in this class, since there are no 2013 seniors to replace. But here's one of the cases where an exception exists.
Quite simply, Pitt has some holes at quarterback on the roster, largely because the quarterback who signed in 2009 - Kolby Gray - has since transferred. Plus, as is to be expected, the new coaching staff wants its quarterback. This recruiting class if an important one for Todd Graham, and a lot of the importance is placed on getting a big-time quarterback. On that note…
2012 commitments
Chad Voytik[/URL]
Voytik became Pitt's top target in the spring and he committed to the Panthers this summer. He doesn't have elite size, but he doesn't need it in Pitt's offense. He does have the mobility, arm strength, and accuracy that Pitt's quarterback will need, and he seems to be a near-ideal fit for the Panthers.
Target number: 1
For some time, I thought Pitt would sign Voytik and then add another quarterback for depth, perhaps an athletic quarterback who could provide a change of pace or project at another position, but I don't think that's a priority now. To a large extent, it looks like that territory has been covered by Trey Anderson.
Pitt may add a versatile athlete late in the class, but Voytik is the key piece of the class and the elite quarterback Pitt needed.
Running back
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Derrick Burns - redshirt senior
Isaac Bennett - senior/redshirt junior
Malcolm Crockett - senior/redshirt junior
Corey Davis - senior/redshirt junior
Like quarterback, Pitt won't have any senior running backs on scholarship during the 2013 season for the 2012 class to replace. Unlike quarterback, the coaches made a major haul at running back in the class of 2011, signing three backs - four, actually, although Jeremiah Bryson left Pitt after a short stay - and all three appear ready to contribute right off the bat.
This lessens the importance of signing a running back in the class of 2012, but that doesn't mean the staff plans to not sign any backs. Todd Graham has no problem having a lot of running backs on his team, and he's got Pitt in good position for a handful of standouts.
2012 commitments
None
Target number: 2
Obviously the two big targets are Rushel Shell[/URL] and William Mahone[/URL]. The winds certainly seem to blowing Shell toward Pitt, while Mahone has a strong force - his mother - pushing for Notre Dame. Pitt would be content with either recruit (or Drew Harris[/URL], for that matter) and then probably add another back like Tavarreon Dickerson[/URL], Shadrach Alexander[/URL], or one of the other backs who claim offers.
The big fish is Shell or Mahone, though, and Pitt will know by mid-fall whether they got one of them. Obviously they won't turn down any top back who wants to commit, but once a Shell or a Mahone commits, it's not likely that a Greg Garmon[/URL] would be considering Pitt all that much (although it seems like that ship sailed a long time ago).
Wide receiver
2013 seniors
Devin Street
Ed Tinker
2014 upperclassmen
Brendon Felder - redshirt senior
Kevin Weatherspoon - redshirt senior
Salath Williams - redshirt senior
Justin Jackson - senior/redshirt junior
Ronald Jones - senior/redshirt junior
Darius Patton - senior/redshirt junior
Under the Three-Year-Out rule, Pitt would be looking for two receivers in the class of 2012, but one of the chief observations of Todd Graham and the coaching staff upon taking over at Pitt was that the receiving corps needed a serious speed upgrade.
That's why the coaches have been so enamored with Jones and Patton, a pair of true freshmen. And that's why the current commitment list has a pair of small speedsters and a track star at receiver.
2012 commitments
Trenton Coles[/URL]
Chris Davis[/URL]
Demitrious Davis[/URL]
Target number: 3
So the target number is three, and Pitt has three commitments; that means they're done at receiver, right?
Not quite.
Again, we're eschewing the Three-Year-Out rule here, because Pitt has three receivers committed, but the coaching staff isn't done recruiting at the position. Recruits like Corey Jones[/URL] and Wayne Capers[/URL] are still very much in play, but there's a caveat:
Jones and Capers could both project as defensive backs, and really, any of Pitt's three receiver commits could as well. Versatility means that Pitt might sign as many as five players who will be listed as receivers on Rivals.com and on Pitt's Signing Day press release, but they'll line up at cornerback or safety or even Spur linebacker when they put on a Pitt jersey in training camp.
(This is a good time to point out the most hard-and-fast rule of recruiting:
There are no hard-and-fast rules in recruiting. Everything is fluid, everything is constantly in motion, and everything can change from one day to the next. The only thing that's solid is a Letter of Intent, and we saw two situations locally this year where even that wasn't exactly a rock.
So what's the point of an exercise like this? To give you a working idea of how the coaching staff is approaching the class of 2012, and where the focal points are.)
Offensive line
2013 seniors
Juantez Hollins
Cory King
Ryan Schlieper
2014 upperclassmen
Arthur Doakes - redshirt senior
Shane Johnson - redshirt senior
Tom Ricketts - redshirt senior
Matt Rotheram - redshirt senior
Artie Rowell - senior/redshirt junior
Boy, Pitt has to hope that the class of 2010 - the one with Doakes and Johnson and Rotheram - pans out; otherwise, they'll be hurting in 2014. Either way, they'll need a decent haul in the class of 2012, probably more than the three indicated by the Three-Year-Out rule.
2012 commitments
Brandyn Cook[/URL]
Cook is a center, so that's a good start for the class. But the real need is at tackle, and it's a much more immediate need than the 2013 or 2014 season. Pitt will graduate four tackles after this season, leaving Juantez Hollins, Zenel Demhasaj, and Justin Virbitsky as possible tackles after this season. Players like Rotheram or Doakes could possibly move outside to tackle from guard, but the depth situation is not good.
That puts a major onus on the class of 2012. You never want to recruit offensive linemen with the expectation that they will start as freshmen, but with this class, you're hoping at least a few of them are ready to go by the 2013 season.
Target number: 4
Adam Bisnowaty[/URL] is priority No. 1, and the more I talk to him and other people who are following his recruitment, the harder time I have seeing him go to Florida (the Gators are Pitt's main competition for his services).
But Bisnowaty alone is not enough. They'll need at least one more tackle in addition to Bisnowaty, if not two, as well as a guard (so the number could stretch to five). Adam Pankey[/URL] was very high on Pitt after his visit; he has gone quiet for the time being, but at this point he seems to be the primary target. Tony Matteo[/URL] was a high target due to his versatility, but he committed to West Virginia in something of a surprise move.
If Pitt could land Bisnowaty and Pankey, that might be enough. But they do have Logan Dietz[/URL] as a possibility as well. I'm still trying to develop a list of targeted guard prospects, but the real need is at tackle.
Also, there was an article this week about Josh Stepoli[/URL], who has landed in North Carolina after stops at Monessen and Greensburg Central Catholic. He said he is high on Pitt, but that's a one-way street, as I've been told Pitt is not reciprocating whatever interest he has. There's too much baggage with Stepoli.
Next week we'll review the defensive recruiting and take an overall look at how the class could come together.
Training camp is over and the 2011 season is right around the corner, so it's time for another edition of In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com's comprehensive review of everything going on in Pitt recruiting. To make it a little less of a novel, we're breaking up the breakdown into two sections: offense this week, defense next week.
Top of the Pitt
It's been awhile since we rolled out an edition of In the Pitt, but this week seems like a good time to break it out. The goal for today is an offensive position-by-position breakdown of the class of 2012: what Pitt has, what Pitt needs, and what Pitt wants.
Let's start with the key resources you'll want to keep handy:
The 2012 commitment list
The 2012 offer sheet
The Scholarship Board
All three are valuable resources that are pretty essential when you want to figure out what a class will look like. Let's start with The Scholarship Board.
(A lot of you have heard the "Three-Year-Out" rule before, but there are a lot of new faces on the board, so we'll go through it again).
The "Three-Year-Out" rule is my term for a general rule-of-thumb in recruiting. Simply put, you recruit the current class to be ready to contribute in their third year of eligibility, so you look at the players on the current roster who will graduate three years from now. In theory, the current class will be expected to replace those players who currently have sophomore eligibility.
The "Three-Year-Out" rule does operate on a few ideal circumstances; for starters, it assumes that all recruits redshirt. It also assumes that there aren't any glaring holes in the roster that need to be addressed with the current class - as was the case at running back last season - and that all players stay with the team through the completion of their eligibility.
Obviously these are circumstances that don't always apply, but they are reliable in the majority of situations. And even if a coach won't specifically say he is recruiting three-years-out, the concept is probably driving the recruiting regardless.
So, as we look at the position breakdown, we'll be keeping the "Three-Year-Out" rule in mind and reference it. We'll also point out when the rule doesn't apply and special circumstances are at work.
The Count
Now it's time to come up with a target number for the class. The basic starting figure will be the number of current seniors, since those are the scholarships that will come immediately available for the recruits in the class of 2012. So let's go back to the Scholarship Board:
Pitt currently has 15 seniors on scholarship. So the starting number is 15.
They're going to sign more than 15 recruits, but the question is how many. Pitt enters the 2011 season with 81 players on scholarship, which means they could give four scholarships to walk-ons for the current season. In some cases, coaches have awarded scholarships to walk-ons but not renewed them the following season (remember: scholarships are renewed on a year-to-year basis).
My guess is that freshman quarterback Trey Anderson and transfer EJ Banks will get two of the scholarships, and those two will be renewed through the expiration of those players' eligibility. I'd guess the same would apply to Matt Yoklic, who will be Pitt's starting punter this season.
Those are relevant because that leaves just one scholarship to be given to a walk-on and not renewed next year, thus making it available for an incoming recruit.
That one would put the number at 16. There will be some attrition, but it's impossible to guess how much. I don't suspect Pitt will lose nine players from the current roster this offseason, which is the number they'd need to lose in order to get to the full complement of 25 in the class.
Todd Graham told me this summer that he expected Pitt to sign 18-20 recruits in the class; coaches inevitably sign more than they predict, so it will probably end up in the 20-22 range. Let's set 21 as a working target number for the class, with the understanding that it wouldn't be a surprise if they sign as many as 22.
If we reference back to the Commitment List, Pitt has 13 players committed in the class of 2012, which leaves eight spots for the rest of the class if they go for 21.
Let's see where those other eight will come from.
(As we go position-by-position, we'll list several items: the 2013 seniors (who will graduate right before the 2012 recruits are in their third years); the 2014 upperclassmen (who will be on the roster when the 2012 recruits are in their third years); the target numbers at each position; the committed recruits; and the top targets.)
Quarterback
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Mark Myers (redshirt senior)
Anthony Gonzalez (redshirt senior)
Trey Anderson (redshirt junior)
Obviously there are some assumptions there. For starters, we're assuming that none of the three transfer between now and then. We're also including Gonzalez with the quarterbacks, although my guess is he'll be a permanent fixture at H-back by then.
In a sense, the Three-Year-Rule would say Pitt doesn't need a quarterback in this class, since there are no 2013 seniors to replace. But here's one of the cases where an exception exists.
Quite simply, Pitt has some holes at quarterback on the roster, largely because the quarterback who signed in 2009 - Kolby Gray - has since transferred. Plus, as is to be expected, the new coaching staff wants its quarterback. This recruiting class if an important one for Todd Graham, and a lot of the importance is placed on getting a big-time quarterback. On that note…
2012 commitments
Chad Voytik[/URL]
Voytik became Pitt's top target in the spring and he committed to the Panthers this summer. He doesn't have elite size, but he doesn't need it in Pitt's offense. He does have the mobility, arm strength, and accuracy that Pitt's quarterback will need, and he seems to be a near-ideal fit for the Panthers.
Target number: 1
For some time, I thought Pitt would sign Voytik and then add another quarterback for depth, perhaps an athletic quarterback who could provide a change of pace or project at another position, but I don't think that's a priority now. To a large extent, it looks like that territory has been covered by Trey Anderson.
Pitt may add a versatile athlete late in the class, but Voytik is the key piece of the class and the elite quarterback Pitt needed.
Running back
2013 seniors
None
2014 upperclassmen
Derrick Burns - redshirt senior
Isaac Bennett - senior/redshirt junior
Malcolm Crockett - senior/redshirt junior
Corey Davis - senior/redshirt junior
Like quarterback, Pitt won't have any senior running backs on scholarship during the 2013 season for the 2012 class to replace. Unlike quarterback, the coaches made a major haul at running back in the class of 2011, signing three backs - four, actually, although Jeremiah Bryson left Pitt after a short stay - and all three appear ready to contribute right off the bat.
This lessens the importance of signing a running back in the class of 2012, but that doesn't mean the staff plans to not sign any backs. Todd Graham has no problem having a lot of running backs on his team, and he's got Pitt in good position for a handful of standouts.
2012 commitments
None
Target number: 2
Obviously the two big targets are Rushel Shell[/URL] and William Mahone[/URL]. The winds certainly seem to blowing Shell toward Pitt, while Mahone has a strong force - his mother - pushing for Notre Dame. Pitt would be content with either recruit (or Drew Harris[/URL], for that matter) and then probably add another back like Tavarreon Dickerson[/URL], Shadrach Alexander[/URL], or one of the other backs who claim offers.
The big fish is Shell or Mahone, though, and Pitt will know by mid-fall whether they got one of them. Obviously they won't turn down any top back who wants to commit, but once a Shell or a Mahone commits, it's not likely that a Greg Garmon[/URL] would be considering Pitt all that much (although it seems like that ship sailed a long time ago).
Wide receiver
2013 seniors
Devin Street
Ed Tinker
2014 upperclassmen
Brendon Felder - redshirt senior
Kevin Weatherspoon - redshirt senior
Salath Williams - redshirt senior
Justin Jackson - senior/redshirt junior
Ronald Jones - senior/redshirt junior
Darius Patton - senior/redshirt junior
Under the Three-Year-Out rule, Pitt would be looking for two receivers in the class of 2012, but one of the chief observations of Todd Graham and the coaching staff upon taking over at Pitt was that the receiving corps needed a serious speed upgrade.
That's why the coaches have been so enamored with Jones and Patton, a pair of true freshmen. And that's why the current commitment list has a pair of small speedsters and a track star at receiver.
2012 commitments
Trenton Coles[/URL]
Chris Davis[/URL]
Demitrious Davis[/URL]
Target number: 3
So the target number is three, and Pitt has three commitments; that means they're done at receiver, right?
Not quite.
Again, we're eschewing the Three-Year-Out rule here, because Pitt has three receivers committed, but the coaching staff isn't done recruiting at the position. Recruits like Corey Jones[/URL] and Wayne Capers[/URL] are still very much in play, but there's a caveat:
Jones and Capers could both project as defensive backs, and really, any of Pitt's three receiver commits could as well. Versatility means that Pitt might sign as many as five players who will be listed as receivers on Rivals.com and on Pitt's Signing Day press release, but they'll line up at cornerback or safety or even Spur linebacker when they put on a Pitt jersey in training camp.
(This is a good time to point out the most hard-and-fast rule of recruiting:
There are no hard-and-fast rules in recruiting. Everything is fluid, everything is constantly in motion, and everything can change from one day to the next. The only thing that's solid is a Letter of Intent, and we saw two situations locally this year where even that wasn't exactly a rock.
So what's the point of an exercise like this? To give you a working idea of how the coaching staff is approaching the class of 2012, and where the focal points are.)
Offensive line
2013 seniors
Juantez Hollins
Cory King
Ryan Schlieper
2014 upperclassmen
Arthur Doakes - redshirt senior
Shane Johnson - redshirt senior
Tom Ricketts - redshirt senior
Matt Rotheram - redshirt senior
Artie Rowell - senior/redshirt junior
Boy, Pitt has to hope that the class of 2010 - the one with Doakes and Johnson and Rotheram - pans out; otherwise, they'll be hurting in 2014. Either way, they'll need a decent haul in the class of 2012, probably more than the three indicated by the Three-Year-Out rule.
2012 commitments
Brandyn Cook[/URL]
Cook is a center, so that's a good start for the class. But the real need is at tackle, and it's a much more immediate need than the 2013 or 2014 season. Pitt will graduate four tackles after this season, leaving Juantez Hollins, Zenel Demhasaj, and Justin Virbitsky as possible tackles after this season. Players like Rotheram or Doakes could possibly move outside to tackle from guard, but the depth situation is not good.
That puts a major onus on the class of 2012. You never want to recruit offensive linemen with the expectation that they will start as freshmen, but with this class, you're hoping at least a few of them are ready to go by the 2013 season.
Target number: 4
Adam Bisnowaty[/URL] is priority No. 1, and the more I talk to him and other people who are following his recruitment, the harder time I have seeing him go to Florida (the Gators are Pitt's main competition for his services).
But Bisnowaty alone is not enough. They'll need at least one more tackle in addition to Bisnowaty, if not two, as well as a guard (so the number could stretch to five). Adam Pankey[/URL] was very high on Pitt after his visit; he has gone quiet for the time being, but at this point he seems to be the primary target. Tony Matteo[/URL] was a high target due to his versatility, but he committed to West Virginia in something of a surprise move.
If Pitt could land Bisnowaty and Pankey, that might be enough. But they do have Logan Dietz[/URL] as a possibility as well. I'm still trying to develop a list of targeted guard prospects, but the real need is at tackle.
Also, there was an article this week about Josh Stepoli[/URL], who has landed in North Carolina after stops at Monessen and Greensburg Central Catholic. He said he is high on Pitt, but that's a one-way street, as I've been told Pitt is not reciprocating whatever interest he has. There's too much baggage with Stepoli.
Next week we'll review the defensive recruiting and take an overall look at how the class could come together.
