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In the Pitt - 8/29/08

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Chris Peak

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Welcome back to In The Pitt, PantherLair.com’s new weekly discourse featuring a roundup of everything that’s happened in the past week, with insight and inside information thrown in for good measure.


August 29, 2008


Top of The Pitt

It’s game week. Finally.

We’re approaching the 24-hour countdown to kickoff for the 2008 season, and there is no bigger story in Pitt athletics than the football team’s upcoming campaign. The list of things at stake for the Panthers runs long and has been oft-repeated, but there’s no denying that for the fans, the players, the coaches, and the administration, 2008 has a the-time-is-now feel to it.

Could Dave Wannstedt and his staff survive a 7-5 regular season record? Probably. Could they even survive a 6-6 record, provided they slip into a bottom-tier bowl? Probably. But do they absolutely have to be playing in the post-season? Yes. That much is the unspoken mandate for Pitt this year, and since the 6-6 bowl trip is never a sure thing, it would be in Wannstedt’s best interests for the Panthers to win more games than they lose.

But we’ve talked about that before, and that end result is still several months away. For now, Pitt is focused on tomorrow’s tilt with Bowling Green, a MAC conference favorite with a potent offensive system, plenty of weapons, and a knack for knocking off BCS opponents.

With the lack of juicy matchups in week one, the Pitt-Bowling Green has been starting to get some confidence heading into the game, and for good reason: overall, Pitt has more talent across the board than Bowling Green. Simple as that. But there are a few things to watch out for.

The Falcons’ spread offense, a derivative of Urban Meyer’s system (which he used at BG in 2001 and 2002 before taking it to Utah - and we all remember what came of that - and then Florida), is built to move the ball on quick passes. That kind of attack requires sure tackling from the defense, which the Panthers showed in spades against West Virginia last year, but it also requires the defense to break up the timing of the offense. With Bowling Green’s quarterback making use of short drops, a lot of shotgun snaps, and quick passes, Pitt’s defensive line might not put up the kinds of numbers one expects from that group this season. Instead, the impetus falls on the Panthers’ back seven, particularly the defensive backs, who will need to be physical with the Falcons’ receivers in order to disrupt the passing attack.

This added emphasis on physical play and sure tackling from the back seven, along with Bowling Green’s tendency to spread the offense with four and five-receiver sets, will probably result in the Pitt defense using a lot of multiple-defensive back packages. For Pitt fans, that means a healthy dose of Elijah Fields, who looks to be the fifth defensive back in the Panthers’ nickel and dime alignments.

On the other side of the ball, it will be very interesting to watch how Matt Cavanaugh handles this game. Most people on this board have opinions about what Pitt’s offense has looked like under Cavanaugh; more to the point, most people on this board have opinions about what Pitt’s offense should look like under Cavanaugh. The truth is, the 2008 Panthers have more talent and depth at the offensive skill positions than any Pitt team in recent memory, and it is incumbent upon Cavanaugh to use those weapons.

Missing tackles on defense is one way to lose to Bowling Green; the other is allowing the Falcons to stay in the game long after their hopes should have been dashed. Cavanaugh - and the Pitt offense as a whole - might be best served by unleashing an attack of biblical proportions on Saturday and not letting up until well into the fourth quarter. Bill Stull knows the offensive system as well as, if not better than, anyone else on the team; all he lacks is in-game experience. As such, it would seem that Cavanaugh could look at Saturday as 60 minutes of seasoning for the redshirt junior quarterback.

There will be games in 2008 when Pitt will need to use LeSean McCoy and the running game to sit on a lead and run out the clock. Saturday will not be one of them. The Panthers can benefit in a lot of ways from scoring early and often.


Reviewing the past month in recruiting

We haven’t had an In the Pitt since August 1st, or three days before training camp started. With the non-stop action of camp, we never really got a chance to break down the five commitments Pitt got in August. So let’s do that now.

First up was Montvale (NJ) athlete No. 29 player in the state of New Jersey, and he picked Pitt over Syracuse. Akron had also offered.

The general feeling about Adams is that Pitt got a steal. Stories about a poor 40 time seem to have dogged him a bit on the recruiting trail, and perhaps that kept more colleges away, but word is the coaching staff feels very confident that Adams could explode in his senior season.

Next came Reistertown (MD) safety Leon Kinnard - led him to almost put the Huskies on top. Prior to his visit to Pitt on the 8th, he was planning on taking a visit to Connecticut later in the month, but the trip convinced him that Pittsburgh was the place to be.

Fleming is a big safety (every bit of 6’1” and 191 pounds) who can run a sub-4.5 40. He rushed for 1,099 yards and 15 touchdowns last season and recorded 50 tackles and 6 interceptions en route to first team all-county honors.

One day after Fleming committed, the Panthers Tyrone Ezell. Ezell, all of 6’5” and 255 pounds, was long said to be deciding between Pitt and Ohio State, and while most felt he was probably going to stay local, the early commitment was something of a surprise. But Ezell said that when he visited Pitt on the 9th, he could tell that he wanted to be a Panther.

In Ezell, the Pitt staff picked up a big, athletic defensive lineman who could play end but will probably move inside to tackle. Ezell is ranked No. 10 in Pennsylvania, and last season he recorded 122 tackles and 9 sacks; for his efforts he was named first team all-conference.

Ezell got to be the Panthers’ newest commitment for four days; then, on August 13th, he wasn’t even the Panthers’ newest defensive lineman, as Allderdice defensive end committed to Pitt. Clarke was a summer camp phenom, having earned offers from Pitt and Akron at the Panthers’ prospect camp and later picking up a scholarship from West Virginia at the WVU prospect camp.

A 6’6” 240-pound raw defensive end prospect, Clarke showed the Pitt staff that he could do a lot of things that can’t be coached. His athleticism and size reminded many onlookers of Greg Romeus, another rather raw prospect with a sky-high ceiling, and Clarke’s potential seems to approach Romeus’ level.

Pitt’s fifth commitment in the month of August came three days after Clarke in the person of Elizabeth (NJ) running back picked Pitt over offers from Rutgers, Michigan State, Maryland, Connecticut, South Carolina, and North Carolina State.

Graham is a big get for the Pitt staff. A four-star recruit who ranks No. 8 among all-purpose backs nationwide, Graham rushed for 1,290 yards and 13 touchdowns as a sophomore. As a junior in 2007, his season was limited to just four games due to a broken collarbone, but in those four games he rushed for 750 yards and 12 touchdowns.

If you need any further proof that Graham has some game, watch the first clip in his highlight reel and count how many times you think the run is over. I count at least a half-dozen; the first time I watched that video, the group that was assembled around my lap top issued many configurations of “No way!”, most of which are not fit for print.


Current state of recruiting

With those five August pledges on board, Pitt’s commitment sheet stands at 11 heading into the season (for comparison’s sake, the 2006 class had 16). The breakdown of the current group is as follows:

Two running backs - Raymond Graham
One wide receiver - Devin Street
Three offensive linemen - Fernando Diaz
Three defensive linemen - Tyrone Ezell
One safety - Carl Fleming
One linebacker - Kevin Adams

Now, the two obvious questions out of that breakdown are:

1. How many players total will they sign?
2. What positions are they still going after?

For the answer to question number one, you have to look at the current roster. The 2008 Panthers have 10 redshirt seniors 4 true seniors on scholarship. So that’s 14 spots right there. Then you can probably add in Doug Fulmer, whose future appears to be in jeopardy, and LeSean McCoy (for the purposes of this exercise, we will assume McCoy leaves for the NFL draft, despite his comments on national television earlier this month). That puts the number at 16, which would leave just five more scholarships available for the class of 2009. I think we can all assume that Pitt will sign more than 16 players in February.

The target number I have heard thrown around from various sources is 21, which means they would have to find five more spots. The offer to defensive line prospect Scott Covert is for a grayshirt, which means he would join the team in January of 2010 and count as part of that recruiting class, thus lowering the number of needed spots to four. Not counting Fulmer, there are 11 redshirt juniors on the team this year; to assume that a few of the 11 will not be back doesn’t seem like an outrageous stretch, although four does seem like a lot.

Of course, there is work to do every year when a coaching staff attempts to sign all of its targets. But at this point I think we can assume that the working number for spaces to open up is four.

So if we go forward with 21 as the target for the class, we can then take a look at question number two regarding the position breakdown of the group. In looking at the team’s makeup and the coaching staff’s recruiting focus, and talking to a few different sources, this is what I think the class could look like:

Running backs - 3
Wide receivers - 2
Tight ends - 2
Offensive linemen - 4
Defensive linemen - 4
Linebackers - 3
Defensive backs - 3

(Noticeably absent from that list is the quarterback position, but from the looks of the staff’s recruiting efforts thus far and the pool of quarterbacks currently available, I’m not entirely sure they’ll take one in this class).

Now, if we put that against the current commitments, we get a “remaining targets list” of sorts that looks like this:

Runnings backs - 1
Wide receivers - 1
Tight ends - 2
Offensive linemen - 1
Defensive linemen - 1
Linebackers - 2
Defensive backs - 2

So, who is the staff going to look at for each position?

Obviously Thomas Jefferson tight end Steve Marck, who did well at the Pitt prospect camp; from the sounds of things, the Pitt coaching staff is keeping an eye on Marck’s senior campaign.

At running back, Naples (FL) all-purpose back talks to the Pitt staff almost daily and he seems to be very high on the Panthers. Pratt is a 5’8” 164-pound speedster (which is pretty typical of the majority of the running backs in the class of 2009) with offers from Cincinnati, Illinois, North Carolina State, and Indiana.

At receiver, a few options still exist. The most notable name is Beaver Falls standout Todd Thomas. As questions about his academics continue to swirl, he seems to lean more and more toward the Panthers. Thomas has the athleticism at 6’3” 200 to be a defensive back, but the Pitt staff seems to like him most as a receiver.

On the offensive line, the top remaining target is still New Jersey guard blown away by his visit to Stanford. Wilkes has Pitt, Stanford, Wake Forest, and Rutgers in his top four, but the timetable for his decision keeps getting pushed back, which should give him another opportunity to visit Pittsburgh early in the fall.

Also on the offensive line, the Pitt staff is still keeping an eye on Brashear tackle John Wetzel. Wetzel is very raw, but there is a lot of upside to his 6’7” frame. The Pitt coaches figure to keep an eye on his senior season and could move if they like what they see.

On the other side of the ball, the staff is probably looking at splitting the four defensive linemen evenly, with two ends and two interior players. Clarke is definitely an end, and Ezell is almost definitely a tackle. Lippert has some versatility: he’s an end now, but at 6’3” and 243 pounds, it’s not hard to imagine him bulking up a bit and moving inside. That versatility gives the Pitt coaches some wiggle room with the fourth linemen in this class, since they can be somewhat selective in what player they take, regardless of whether he’s an end or a tackle.

At end, the top names still out there for Pitt are Scott Covert. My guess is they’ll end up taking an interior guy. Randolph has pretty much ruled Pitt out and Holmes seems to be on a course for Maryland, so I would put those guys at the bottom of the list. Elizondo has had Pitt in his top four for a long time and is greatly anticipating a visit north, although it’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not he decides to come here full-time. If the fourth defensive lineman is a tackle prospect, at this point it looks like it could most likely be Covert, with Elizondo a close second.

If Adams does count as a linebacker, then the staff is still looking for two more at that position in this class. Penn Hills standout called Pitt a favorite this week, but an underwhelming performance at the Panthers’ prospect camp in June may have caused the staff to cool on him a little bit. Still, if Drakeford has a strong senior season, the coaches may turn the heat back up.

Erie’s AJ Fenton is also a possibility; although he’s got some position flexibility, linebacker seems like his ideal spot.

My guess here is Fenton, followed by one of the Florida linebackers, probably either Gordon or Gamble, but there’s always the possibility that a new name could emerge this fall.

Finally, they’ll be looking for two more defensive backs in this class, and this is probably the toughest position to call. The names still on the offer board are going to be tough gets for the Pitt staff. There’s Terry Patrick, who reportedly has very poor grades).

Truthfully, I think Pitt’s other defensive backs in this class will come from two sources: unknowns who emerge this fall, and decommitments. When you look at The Big Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=803554, there are at least two or three names of defensive backs who could be looking elsewhere - and possibly to Pitt - by the end of the season.

That makes predictions a bit tough.


Speaking of predictions

I think we’ll end this week’s In the Pitt with a prediction for the season-opener. Despite what I said above about Matt Cavanaugh needing to be aggressive and the implication that he has not been aggressive in his time here, I think Pitt will lay it on Bowling Green a bit, partially because they can and partially because they’ll need to.

Final score:

Pitt 38, BG 21

I invite you to add your prediction to this thread.




Thanks for joining this week’s edition of In The Pitt. Feel free to e-mail chrispeak1@comcast.net with any suggestions, feedback, or other input.
This post was edited on 8/29 12:54 AM by Chris Peak
 
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