September 9, 2011
Two weeks ago, we brought out a new edition of In the Pitt and broke down Pitt’s recruiting on offense in the class of 2012. The plan was to hit up the defensive side of the ball last week, but things got hectic with two commitments and the start of the season looming. But now we’re back and ready to run down the defense.
Top of the Pitt
Since Pitt did get a commitment from an offensive player since the last edition of In the Pitt, I figured we should run back through the offense for a quick recap.
Quarterback
Target number: 1
Commitments: Chad Voytik
- Pitt could add one more quarterback for depth late in the class, but they are pretty well set with Voytik.
Running back
Target number: 2
Commitments: None
- The big targets are the names you know by now: Tavarreon Dickerson, although with three running backs in the last class, it’s not necessary to take even one back in this class, let alone two. They’ll sign at least one, though, and probably two..
Wide receiver
Target number: 3
Commitments: Corey Jones
- Wait: the target number is three, but Pitt has four commitments. That doesn’t work, but that’s recruiting, and the first hard-and-fast rule of recruiting is that there is nothing hard-and-fast. Everything - offers, target numbers, commitments, prospect boards - is always flexible and usually in flux. In the case of receivers, Jones, Chris Davis, and maybe even Coles could play defense. The same is true with Wayne Capers; we’re hearing Capers is a pretty heavy lean to Pitt, and he’s got multi-position versatility.
Offensive line
Target number: 4
Commitments: Brandyn Cook
- The top two targets right now are Tavon Rooks; Pitt’s in the bottom half of his top four, but if they can get him on campus, they’ve got a shot. If they can land Bisnowaty and Pankey, though, expect the fourth lineman to come from a group that might not be offered yet.
Okay then, that covers the offense. Now on to the defense.
The Ground Rules
In the last In the Pitt, we covered the basics of how to approach class size and positional target numbers. Three resources to have on hand:
The 2012 commitment list
The 2012 offer sheet
The Scholarship Board
For class size, you start with the seniors, which is where the scholarships for this class will directly come from. Pitt has 15 seniors on scholarship this year, which would leave 15 for freshmen. Pitt is also - as far as we know - three scholarships under the 85-scholarship limit (currently 82 on the roster); even if those are given to walk-ons, a lot of walk-on scholarships don’t get renewed the next time. Let’s assume they have those three available for next year; that lifts the number to 18.
We can also probably assume a bit of attrition; a player could leave early for the NFL, players could be ineligible or kicked off the team, or players could simply choose to pursue their fortunes elsewhere.
The rough number I’ve heard is 20-22, and I think the coaches will end up right around 22 in the class. It will probably be a pretty even split of 11/11 on offense/defense; if you add up the target numbers for offense listed above, it comes out to nine. So expect two more in addition to those target numbers (maybe an extra quarterback or receiver).
Then there’s the three-year-out rule, a recruiting rule of thumb that generally guides you to the positional target numbers. The basic concept is that recruits in the current class will be ready to contribute by their third year of eligibility (juniors or redshirt sophomores). As such, you want to recruit this class to - by position - replace the class you recruited three years ago, since those players will be gone when the current class enters its third year of eligibility.
For example, the class of 2012 would, in theory, replace the class of 2009. So you’re looking at Devin Street and Juantez Hollins and Cory King and Dan Mason and Jason Hendricks. It’s not a perfect rule, but it creates a general guide.
More specifically, we’ll base our positional targets at least in part on the players with current sophomore eligibility (refer to the Scholarship Board). So as we go position-by-position, we’ll list several items:
- The 2013 seniors (who will graduate the year before the 2012 recruits are in their third years)
- The 2014 upperclassmen (players who will be on the roster when the 2012 recruits are in their third years)
- The target numbers at each position
- The committed recruits
- The top targets
Okay then…
Defensive line
2013 seniors
T.J. Clemmings
Aaron Donald
Tyrone Ezell
Jack Lippert
2014 upperclassmen
Khaynin Mosley-Smith - senior/redshirt junior
Clemmings is listed here, but barring anything unexpected, I think he’s taking a redshirt this season, so you could lump him in with Mosley-Smith as a redshirt senior in 2014. Suffice to say, that’s not a lot of depth. All of Pitt’s defensive linemen this season are redshirt seniors (Chas Alecxih, Myles Caragein, Justin Hargrove) or sophomores (true sophomores Clemmings and Donald, redshirt sophomores Ezell Lippert). Shayne Hale is a redshirt junior, too, and he’s back on the defensive line, but it doesn’t look like he’ll contribute much.
So even though Pitt now plays a 3-4 defense, they’re going to have to recruit this year’s class like they’re a 4-3. They still need D-linemen and they like to rotate them, so expect a big haul in the class of 2012.
2012 commitments
Myles Hilliard
Darryl Render
Tyrique Jarrett
Jarrett is the new addition to the list, having committed last Friday, and he gives the class a tackle prospect to complement Render and Hilliard, who are both ends.
Target number: 4
Pitt could probably get away with signing three defensive linemen in the class, but it’s not likely. Expect at least one more commit, and with Jarrett’s academic situation a question mark, they might even take two more. The most likely scenario is one more commit, though. I’m looking at end prospects like Willie Henry. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the fourth defensive line commit is in that group somewhere.
Linebacker
2013 seniors
Carl Fleming
Shane Gordon
Dan Mason
2014 upperclassmen
Todd Thomas - redshirt senior
Eric Williams - redshirt senior
Bryan Murphy - redshirt senior
Devin Cook - redshirt junior/senior
Nick Grigsby - senior/redshirt junior
Juan Price - senior
LaQuentin Smith - senior/redshirt junior
Bryan Murphy will take a redshirt this year due to his academic ineligibility, which makes him a redshirt senior in 2014. Cook is headed for a redshirt, so he’s most likely to be a redshirt junior in 2014, but I think Grigsby and Smith will both join Price as having played this season, so they’ll be on track to be true seniors in 2014.
There’s also the inside/outside and Panther/Spur designations to consider. But while we’ll keep them in mind, we can’t get too caught up in them, since guys have moved around a lot. For instance, Todd Graham said this week that Price - who has been a Panther - could move inside, and over the summer I heard that Smith would be a Panther, but he practiced in the middle during training camp.
So we’ll consider those designations, but we also won’t over-emphasize them.
2012 commitments
Dakota Conwell
Devon Porchia
Alkwan Williams
I know I said we wouldn’t over-emphasize the Panther/Spur/inside designations, but we’ll still mention them for the sake of reference. What you’ll find, though, is that none of them are set in stone. Conwell is most likely a Spur, but the coaches could bulk him up a little and move his speed inside. Similarly, Porchia is probably headed for Spur, but he’s versatile enough that he could move inside, or perhaps even bulk up and play Panther. And Williams will probably be a Panther to start, but he could play inside as well.
Target number: 3
If the target number is three, then Pitt is probably done with linebackers, right? Well, not exactly. I think they’ve gotten to a point where the linebackers they would take at this point will come from a smaller pool than what the offer sheet shows. Lloyd Grogan probably is, too, as are some of the bigger names left on the offer sheet. But I think the coaching staff would be okay if they end up on Signing Day with Conwell, Porchia, and Williams. Remember: they signed four linebackers - Smith, Price, Cook, Grigsby - in the class of 2011.
Defensive back
2013 seniors
Jason Hendricks (safety)
K’Waun Williams (cornerback)
2014 upperclassmen
Cullen Christian (cornerback) - redshirt senior
Brandon Ifill (safety) - redshirt senior
Ray Vinopal (safety) - redshirt senior
Lloyd Carrington (cornerback) - senior/redshirt junior
Jason Frimpong (safety) - redshirt junior/senior
Lafayette Pitts (safety) - senior/redshirt junior
Roderick Ryles (safety) - redshirt junior/senior
Steve Williams (safety) - redshirt junior/senior
When the class designations are split, I listed the most likely one first. For instance, I expect Carrington and Pitts to play this season, so they are more likely to be true seniors in 2014, rather than redshirt juniors. Conversely, I expect Frimpong, Ryles, and Williams to redshirt, so they’re more likely to be redshirt juniors. Christian and Vinopal are true sophomores this season, but they will redshirt due to transfer ineligibility.
From a position standpoint, things could change. Pitts is at safety now, but he could move back to corner, which they might need given the look of that 2014 list (six safeties and two corners).
2012 commitments
Marchez Coates
Marzett Geter
William Parks
Jevonte Pitts
Target number: 4
Here we are again: the target number matches up with the number of commitments, but Pitt is not done recruiting defensive backs. At least part of that is due to the versatility of the commits; I don’t think Coates, Geter, or Parks are dead-set for cornerback. All three could play safety. Then again, some of the receivers - Chris Davis or Corey Jones - could probably play corner.
(Pitts on the commit list because Mike Farrell talked to Milford head coach Bill Chaplick, who said that the Woodland Hills product who signed with Pitt in February will do so once again this year.)
Still, the staff has its eye on at least two more defensive back prospects, and they are recruits that the coaches really want: Demetrious Cox. I think they’ll get one of the two, and I feel better about Pitt’s chances with Bradley than with Cox.
Wrapping up
I realize this doesn’t quite count as a list of who Pitt will get and exactly the class will look like, and there’s a reason for that:
It’s impossible to say for sure at this point. Recruiting is naturally always in motion, and there are a lot of variables that can affect it. Pitt’s season, for instance, could sway a few recruits toward the Panthers if everything goes well over the next four months.
Plus, we’ve seen what this staff could accomplish with two weeks’ worth of official visits; what if they had an entire fall, all of December, and all of January? Maybe they can get into a top-five for a big recruit, get him on campus for an official visit, and seal the deal for a surprise commit/signing.
You just never know for sure. Last year at this time, I had a pretty firm grasp on what Pitt’s class was going to look like. Actually, I probably could have told you with about 90-95% certainty who they were going to sign; in the end, I would have only been right on four predictions: Sam Collura, Lafayette Pitts, Artie Rowell, and Khaynin Mosley-Smith.
So you never know what will happen. But that’s where things stand on September 9, 2011.
Two weeks ago, we brought out a new edition of In the Pitt and broke down Pitt’s recruiting on offense in the class of 2012. The plan was to hit up the defensive side of the ball last week, but things got hectic with two commitments and the start of the season looming. But now we’re back and ready to run down the defense.
Top of the Pitt
Since Pitt did get a commitment from an offensive player since the last edition of In the Pitt, I figured we should run back through the offense for a quick recap.
Quarterback
Target number: 1
Commitments: Chad Voytik
- Pitt could add one more quarterback for depth late in the class, but they are pretty well set with Voytik.
Running back
Target number: 2
Commitments: None
- The big targets are the names you know by now: Tavarreon Dickerson, although with three running backs in the last class, it’s not necessary to take even one back in this class, let alone two. They’ll sign at least one, though, and probably two..
Wide receiver
Target number: 3
Commitments: Corey Jones
- Wait: the target number is three, but Pitt has four commitments. That doesn’t work, but that’s recruiting, and the first hard-and-fast rule of recruiting is that there is nothing hard-and-fast. Everything - offers, target numbers, commitments, prospect boards - is always flexible and usually in flux. In the case of receivers, Jones, Chris Davis, and maybe even Coles could play defense. The same is true with Wayne Capers; we’re hearing Capers is a pretty heavy lean to Pitt, and he’s got multi-position versatility.
Offensive line
Target number: 4
Commitments: Brandyn Cook
- The top two targets right now are Tavon Rooks; Pitt’s in the bottom half of his top four, but if they can get him on campus, they’ve got a shot. If they can land Bisnowaty and Pankey, though, expect the fourth lineman to come from a group that might not be offered yet.
Okay then, that covers the offense. Now on to the defense.
The Ground Rules
In the last In the Pitt, we covered the basics of how to approach class size and positional target numbers. Three resources to have on hand:
The 2012 commitment list
The 2012 offer sheet
The Scholarship Board
For class size, you start with the seniors, which is where the scholarships for this class will directly come from. Pitt has 15 seniors on scholarship this year, which would leave 15 for freshmen. Pitt is also - as far as we know - three scholarships under the 85-scholarship limit (currently 82 on the roster); even if those are given to walk-ons, a lot of walk-on scholarships don’t get renewed the next time. Let’s assume they have those three available for next year; that lifts the number to 18.
We can also probably assume a bit of attrition; a player could leave early for the NFL, players could be ineligible or kicked off the team, or players could simply choose to pursue their fortunes elsewhere.
The rough number I’ve heard is 20-22, and I think the coaches will end up right around 22 in the class. It will probably be a pretty even split of 11/11 on offense/defense; if you add up the target numbers for offense listed above, it comes out to nine. So expect two more in addition to those target numbers (maybe an extra quarterback or receiver).
Then there’s the three-year-out rule, a recruiting rule of thumb that generally guides you to the positional target numbers. The basic concept is that recruits in the current class will be ready to contribute by their third year of eligibility (juniors or redshirt sophomores). As such, you want to recruit this class to - by position - replace the class you recruited three years ago, since those players will be gone when the current class enters its third year of eligibility.
For example, the class of 2012 would, in theory, replace the class of 2009. So you’re looking at Devin Street and Juantez Hollins and Cory King and Dan Mason and Jason Hendricks. It’s not a perfect rule, but it creates a general guide.
More specifically, we’ll base our positional targets at least in part on the players with current sophomore eligibility (refer to the Scholarship Board). So as we go position-by-position, we’ll list several items:
- The 2013 seniors (who will graduate the year before the 2012 recruits are in their third years)
- The 2014 upperclassmen (players who will be on the roster when the 2012 recruits are in their third years)
- The target numbers at each position
- The committed recruits
- The top targets
Okay then…
Defensive line
2013 seniors
T.J. Clemmings
Aaron Donald
Tyrone Ezell
Jack Lippert
2014 upperclassmen
Khaynin Mosley-Smith - senior/redshirt junior
Clemmings is listed here, but barring anything unexpected, I think he’s taking a redshirt this season, so you could lump him in with Mosley-Smith as a redshirt senior in 2014. Suffice to say, that’s not a lot of depth. All of Pitt’s defensive linemen this season are redshirt seniors (Chas Alecxih, Myles Caragein, Justin Hargrove) or sophomores (true sophomores Clemmings and Donald, redshirt sophomores Ezell Lippert). Shayne Hale is a redshirt junior, too, and he’s back on the defensive line, but it doesn’t look like he’ll contribute much.
So even though Pitt now plays a 3-4 defense, they’re going to have to recruit this year’s class like they’re a 4-3. They still need D-linemen and they like to rotate them, so expect a big haul in the class of 2012.
2012 commitments
Myles Hilliard
Darryl Render
Tyrique Jarrett
Jarrett is the new addition to the list, having committed last Friday, and he gives the class a tackle prospect to complement Render and Hilliard, who are both ends.
Target number: 4
Pitt could probably get away with signing three defensive linemen in the class, but it’s not likely. Expect at least one more commit, and with Jarrett’s academic situation a question mark, they might even take two more. The most likely scenario is one more commit, though. I’m looking at end prospects like Willie Henry. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the fourth defensive line commit is in that group somewhere.
Linebacker
2013 seniors
Carl Fleming
Shane Gordon
Dan Mason
2014 upperclassmen
Todd Thomas - redshirt senior
Eric Williams - redshirt senior
Bryan Murphy - redshirt senior
Devin Cook - redshirt junior/senior
Nick Grigsby - senior/redshirt junior
Juan Price - senior
LaQuentin Smith - senior/redshirt junior
Bryan Murphy will take a redshirt this year due to his academic ineligibility, which makes him a redshirt senior in 2014. Cook is headed for a redshirt, so he’s most likely to be a redshirt junior in 2014, but I think Grigsby and Smith will both join Price as having played this season, so they’ll be on track to be true seniors in 2014.
There’s also the inside/outside and Panther/Spur designations to consider. But while we’ll keep them in mind, we can’t get too caught up in them, since guys have moved around a lot. For instance, Todd Graham said this week that Price - who has been a Panther - could move inside, and over the summer I heard that Smith would be a Panther, but he practiced in the middle during training camp.
So we’ll consider those designations, but we also won’t over-emphasize them.
2012 commitments
Dakota Conwell
Devon Porchia
Alkwan Williams
I know I said we wouldn’t over-emphasize the Panther/Spur/inside designations, but we’ll still mention them for the sake of reference. What you’ll find, though, is that none of them are set in stone. Conwell is most likely a Spur, but the coaches could bulk him up a little and move his speed inside. Similarly, Porchia is probably headed for Spur, but he’s versatile enough that he could move inside, or perhaps even bulk up and play Panther. And Williams will probably be a Panther to start, but he could play inside as well.
Target number: 3
If the target number is three, then Pitt is probably done with linebackers, right? Well, not exactly. I think they’ve gotten to a point where the linebackers they would take at this point will come from a smaller pool than what the offer sheet shows. Lloyd Grogan probably is, too, as are some of the bigger names left on the offer sheet. But I think the coaching staff would be okay if they end up on Signing Day with Conwell, Porchia, and Williams. Remember: they signed four linebackers - Smith, Price, Cook, Grigsby - in the class of 2011.
Defensive back
2013 seniors
Jason Hendricks (safety)
K’Waun Williams (cornerback)
2014 upperclassmen
Cullen Christian (cornerback) - redshirt senior
Brandon Ifill (safety) - redshirt senior
Ray Vinopal (safety) - redshirt senior
Lloyd Carrington (cornerback) - senior/redshirt junior
Jason Frimpong (safety) - redshirt junior/senior
Lafayette Pitts (safety) - senior/redshirt junior
Roderick Ryles (safety) - redshirt junior/senior
Steve Williams (safety) - redshirt junior/senior
When the class designations are split, I listed the most likely one first. For instance, I expect Carrington and Pitts to play this season, so they are more likely to be true seniors in 2014, rather than redshirt juniors. Conversely, I expect Frimpong, Ryles, and Williams to redshirt, so they’re more likely to be redshirt juniors. Christian and Vinopal are true sophomores this season, but they will redshirt due to transfer ineligibility.
From a position standpoint, things could change. Pitts is at safety now, but he could move back to corner, which they might need given the look of that 2014 list (six safeties and two corners).
2012 commitments
Marchez Coates
Marzett Geter
William Parks
Jevonte Pitts
Target number: 4
Here we are again: the target number matches up with the number of commitments, but Pitt is not done recruiting defensive backs. At least part of that is due to the versatility of the commits; I don’t think Coates, Geter, or Parks are dead-set for cornerback. All three could play safety. Then again, some of the receivers - Chris Davis or Corey Jones - could probably play corner.
(Pitts on the commit list because Mike Farrell talked to Milford head coach Bill Chaplick, who said that the Woodland Hills product who signed with Pitt in February will do so once again this year.)
Still, the staff has its eye on at least two more defensive back prospects, and they are recruits that the coaches really want: Demetrious Cox. I think they’ll get one of the two, and I feel better about Pitt’s chances with Bradley than with Cox.
Wrapping up
I realize this doesn’t quite count as a list of who Pitt will get and exactly the class will look like, and there’s a reason for that:
It’s impossible to say for sure at this point. Recruiting is naturally always in motion, and there are a lot of variables that can affect it. Pitt’s season, for instance, could sway a few recruits toward the Panthers if everything goes well over the next four months.
Plus, we’ve seen what this staff could accomplish with two weeks’ worth of official visits; what if they had an entire fall, all of December, and all of January? Maybe they can get into a top-five for a big recruit, get him on campus for an official visit, and seal the deal for a surprise commit/signing.
You just never know for sure. Last year at this time, I had a pretty firm grasp on what Pitt’s class was going to look like. Actually, I probably could have told you with about 90-95% certainty who they were going to sign; in the end, I would have only been right on four predictions: Sam Collura, Lafayette Pitts, Artie Rowell, and Khaynin Mosley-Smith.
So you never know what will happen. But that’s where things stand on September 9, 2011.
