It’s not over yet

[Pitt666]

There is always that one team that sneaks in or is controversial.

Let’s have NcST stay in the top 75 with a close loss tonight. Then have UNc demolish Virginia for perspective.

Have New Mexico lose tonight.

Have Texas A&m get blown out by Florida.

Have Oregon lose.

Have Colorado get blown out tonight.

Have FAU win out.

And Pitt will have a chance to leap in.

 

[LGP1989]

Same odds as a 6 game parlay, so better luck next year.

 

[Pitt666]

Also proof Lunardi is awful. He already posted Virginia and moved them up as winning several minutes ago. NCST with a chance to tie still.

 

[Pitt2009]

Wow NC State!

 

[Pitt666]

Also, Lunardi has a poor memory.

 

[LGP1989]

Virginia is probably below us now, but I don't think it matters.

 

[Pitt666]

 

[BreakingPitt]

Most rational fans never doubted.

 

[Gep Dawg]

It's pretty crazy that he uses such a falsehood (no bubble team that has had a bad OOC schedule getting in when two teams had worse just a year ago) to push his own narrative. There is no way Seton Hall and Virginia will be in ahead of us. It's kind of sick he's doing that and he has huge influence over this process anmd what other brackets go by as well. I believe it will be New Mexico and Pitt in those last two spots and SH and Virginia when its all said and done.

 

[DT_PITT]

It's pretty crazy that he uses such a falsehood (no bubble team that has had a bad OOC schedule getting in when two teams had worse just a year ago) to push his own narrative. There is no way Seton Hall and Virginia will be in ahead of us. It's kind of sick he's doing that and he has huge influence over this process anmd what other brackets go by as well. I believe it will be New Mexico and Pitt in those last two spots and SH and Virginia when its all said and done.

As long as there are no bid stealers today, it does feel like it comes down to Pitt, UVA and Seton Hall for that last spot.

 

[SteelBowl70]

ACC getting 3 bids after being the 4th highest NET rated conference and having the best tournament record the last 2 years (21-10) would have been hard to fathom a few weeks ago. Since the tourney expansion, what’s the lowest number of bids the ACC has had? I’m guessing it was 4 in 2013 but that was before the ACC expanded. So percentage wise, that was 33% of the conference. 3 bids this year would be just 20% which is dismal.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

ACC getting 3 bids after being the 4th highest NET rated conference and having the best tournament record the last 2 years (21-10) would have been to hard to fathom a few weeks ago. Since the tourney expansion, what’s the lowest number of bids the ACC has had? I’m guessing it was 4 in 2013 but that was before ACC expanded. So percentage wise, that was 33% of the conference. 3 bids this year would be just 20% which is dismal.

This all makes common sense and is logical. However, the committee nerds don't use common sense and logic to give out bids. If someone on that committee actually does, then I expect Pitt's name to be among the NCAAT bids tomorrow night.

 

[Pitt2009]

I’ll be honest here. I’m typically an optimist when it comes to Pitt sports, but I would be extremely surprised if Pitt received a bid.

I think Pitt should to be in and deserves to be in. But based on how the committee evaluates teams, I have serious doubts we get in.

That being said, I would LOVE to be wrong.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Time to look closely at Seton Halls team sheet.

 

[Protes]

ACC getting 3 bids after being the 4th highest NET rated conference and having the best tournament record the last 2 years (21-10) would have been hard to fathom a few weeks ago. Since the tourney expansion, what’s the lowest number of bids the ACC has had? I’m guessing it was 4 in 2013 but that was before the ACC expanded. So percentage wise, that was 33% of the conference. 3 bids this year would be just 20% which is dismal.

I would be shocked - really, really shocked - if the ACC only got 3 teams in. That would be an utter joke.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Time to look closely at Seton Halls team sheet.

Look at Michigan State. Sure, they played Duke, Baylor, Purdue × 2, Illinois ×2, Arizona, Wisconsin x 2, Northwestern x 2, Indiana State, Butler, James Madison, and Ohio State. That has to be close to the most difficult schedule in the country (aided in part by luck with Indiana State and JMU's computer success, because those teams aren'tactually that good). But they're 9-14 in Q1/2. Is that good enough? I honestly don't know (though I assume they will get in).

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Look at Michigan State. Sure, they played Duke, Baylor, Purdue × 2, Illinois ×2, Arizona, Wisconsin x 2, Northwestern x 2, Indiana State, Butler, James Madison, and Ohio State. That has to be close to the most difficult schedule in the country (aided in part by luck with Indiana State and JMU's computer success, because those teams aren'tactually that good). But they're 9-14 in Q1/2. Is that good enough? I honestly don't know (though I assume they will get in).

We are just at the mercy of the committee. But the way I see it is MSU have the same amount of Q1/Q2 wins as Pitt, in spite of more opportunities.

 

[Vader_Storm]

We are just at the mercy of the committee. But the way I see it is MSU have the same amount of Q1/Q2 wins as Pitt, in spite of more opportunities.

Not totally.

We need Florida Atlantic and Colorado to win.

Those are huge.

Florida and San Diego St. winning could maybe help.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

We are just at the mercy of the committee. But the way I see it is MSU have the same amount of Q1/Q2 wins as Pitt, in spite of more opportunities.

Very true, but the quality of their Q1/2 competition was probably also much more difficult. I'm more of a fan of measuring each individual game rather than throwing everything into these generic quads, so I can't veer from that when it favors us.

They also don't have the Q3 losses we do (since, in spite of my wishes, they do use quads).

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Not totally.

We need Florida Atlantic and Colorado to win.

Those are huge.

Florida and San Diego St. winning could maybe help.

I don't think they're going to penalize teams for still playing when other teams are done. They're already saying UNC is a lock as a 1-seed because Arizona and Tennessee can't gain any ground while not playing. So if losing to a meh NC State team can't hurt them, then I doubt Florida even winning by 30 could hurt A&M.

 

[Vader_Storm]

I don't think they're going to penalize teams for still playing when other teams are done. They're already saying UNC is a lock as a 1-seed because Arizona and Tennessee can't gain any ground while not playing. So if losing to a meh NC State team can't hurt them, then I doubt Florida even winning by 30 could hurt A&M.

Florida winning the SEC championship makes Pitts non conference schedule look better, which everyone is ripping.


There are still teams out there that are on really thin ice, Northwestern is one of them.

Joe Lunardi has South Florida in the tournament. If they lose to Florida Atlantic, South Florida is not getting into the tournament.

I have high doubts, very high doubts, little Indiana State is getting in, regardless of how much Lunardi wants them in.

Seton Hall is also in trouble.

It could come down to Pitt vs Virginia for that final slot, but also need Colorado to win.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Florida winning the SEC championship makes Pitts non conference schedule look better, which everyone is ripping.


There are still teams out there that are on really thin ice, Northwestern is one of them.

Joe Lunardi has South Florida in the tournament. If they lose to Florida Atlantic, South Florida is not getting into the tournament.

I have high doubts, very high doubts, little Indiana State is getting in, regardless of how much Lunardi wants them in.

Seton Hall is also in trouble.

It could come down to Pitt vs Virginia for that final slot, but also need Colorado to win.

Well Virginia beat Florida, so it would also bolster their resume if Florida wins its next two.

 

[Vader_Storm]

Well Virginia beat Florida, so it would also bolster their resume if Florida wins its next two.

They did.

And Pitt blew the doors off Virgina on Virginia's home court, which is why Palm has Pitt in and Virginia out.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

I would be shocked - really, really shocked - if the ACC only got 3 teams in. That would be an utter joke.

Yes, it would be a monumental joke. But that's what metrics have turned the NCAAT into.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

They did.

And Pitt blew the doors off Virgina on Virginia's home court, which is why Palm has Pitt in and Virginia out.

They're a Q1 win for UVA and a Q1 loss for Pitt. Winning the SEC isn't going to change that. You're looking at this from way too myopic of a lens. You'd have to apply that logic to everyone they played, everyone they played, and so forth. And honestly - is losing to a team that wins the SEC tournament by 15 impressive?

Yes, Pitt may get in over UVA. But it sure as hell won't have anything to do with what Florida does the next two days.

 

[Vader_Storm]

They're a Q1 win for UVA and a Q1 loss for Pitt. Winning the SEC isn't going to change that. You're looking at this from way too myopic of a lens. You'd have to apply that logic to everyone they played, everyone they played, and so forth. And honestly - is losing to a team that wins the SEC tournament by 15 impressive?

Yes, Pitt may get in over UVA. But it sure as hell won't have anything to do with what Florida does the next two days.

Texas A&M is still on the bubble with 5 Q3 losses. And if they lose today its loss number 14. They are not a lock to be in the tournament yet.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Texas A&M is still on the bubble with 5 Q3 losses. And if they lose today its loss number 14. They are not a lock to be in the tournament yet.

13-8 in Q1/2 is exceptional. It's a weird resume. I feel like getting to 20 wins may have been an important hurdle they cleared. We'll see.

 

[Cap pitt]

There is always that one team that sneaks in or is controversial.

Let’s have NcST stay in the top 75 with a close loss tonight. Then have UNc demolish Virginia for perspective.

Have New Mexico lose tonight.

Have Texas A&m get blown out by Florida.

Have Oregon lose.

Have Colorado get blown out tonight.

Have FAU win out.

And Pitt will have a chance to leap in.

Is that all, well no problem, if all that happens maybe Pitt will be a 1 seed,

 

[Pitt666]

If UNC and Colorado win tonight, and FAU tonight and tomorrow, I like Pitt’s chances at taking one of the spots. Lunardi first moved Virginia up thinking they won, then down, then back in. For all his Pitt hate, he is finally caving that they do have a chance to make it.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Also, Lunardi has a poor memory.

View embedded media

I did this yesterday, but it was shortly before the game last night so it may have gotten buried, so here it is again. Current non-conference SOS of several at large possible teams (some of these can still win their conference tournaments):

Pitt - 343
Iowa State - 324
TCU - 328
Nebraska - 305
Northwestern - 330
South Florida - 320

Other schools in the high 200s:
BYU - 293
South Carolina - 289
Washington State - 295
New Mexico - 273
Colorado - 262

Ohio State and Wake just miss the list at 248 and 249 respectively.

Our non-conference schedule sucked. We can comment about why it was quite as bad as what it turned out to be, but it was likely going to be bad no matter what. It needs to be better going forward, no question about that.

But if our non-conference SOS is such a big problem, then how is Northwestern getting such a pass? Is the 330 SOS better by any real margin on the court than 343?

And then look at the other metrics. NET, Pitt 41, Northwestern 54. Q1s, Pitt 4-6, Northwestern 4-7. Q2s, Pitt 5-3, Northwestern 5-3. Bad losses, Pitt has two Q3s, Northwestern has 1 Q4. Road record, Pitt 7-4, Northwestern 4-7. Neutral records, both 2-2.

Everyone has Northwestern in. Not just in, safely in. Our actual resume is similar to theirs. In fact a little bit better than theirs. And somehow we are right on the cut line.

 

[Vader_Storm]

I did this yesterday, but it was shortly before the game last night so it may have gotten buried, so here it is again. Current non-conference SOS of several at large possible teams (some of these can still win their conference tournaments):

Pitt - 343
Iowa State - 324
TCU - 328
Nebraska - 305
Northwestern - 330
South Florida - 320

Other schools in the high 200s:
BYU - 293
South Carolina - 289
Washington State - 295
New Mexico - 273
Colorado - 262

Ohio State and Wake just miss the list at 248 and 249 respectively.

Our non-conference schedule sucked. We can comment about why it was quite as bad as what it turned out to be, but it was likely going to be bad no matter what. It needs to be better going forward, no question about that.

But if our non-conference SOS is such a big problem, then how is Northwestern getting such a pass? Is the 330 SOS better by any real margin on the court than 343?

And then look at the other metrics. NET, Pitt 41, Northwestern 54. Q1s, Pitt 4-6, Northwestern 4-7. Q2s, Pitt 5-3, Northwestern 5-3. Bad losses, Pitt has two Q3s, Northwestern has 1 Q4. Road record, Pitt 7-4, Northwestern 4-7. Neutral records, both 2-2.

Everyone has Northwestern in. Not just in, safely in. Our actual resume is similar to theirs. In fact a little bit better than theirs. And somehow we are right on the cut line.

Ive been beating this same drum on Northwestern recently. They aren't safe. And that includes in Palm's bracket.

 

[Pitt666]

Ive been beating this same drum on Northwestern recently. They aren't safe. And that includes in Palm's bracket.

Teams in that would not shock me if out:
Northwestern
Colorado State
Oklahoma

Also, why is Pitts OOC Rpi so much higher than Net OOC?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Also, why is Pitts OOC Rpi so much higher than Net OOC?

RPI and NET measure two completely different things.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Palm seems to be the most logical in his approach.

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[Pitt666]

Palm seems to be the most logical in his approach.

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

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I wonder if he drops A&M if they get blown out by Florida.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Very true, but the quality of their Q1/2 competition was probably also much more difficult. I'm more of a fan of measuring each individual game rather than throwing everything into these generic quads, so I can't veer from that when it favors us.

They also don't have the Q3 losses we do (since, in spite of my wishes, they do use quads).

Everyone likes to complain about the Quads. I could be wrong but I’d like to think the Quad system is a good way to summarize team resumes for the initial first cut/comparison. Once they get down to a couple or more teams to make the hard decision on, I sure would hope they drill down to the details when doing so.

 

[Pitt666]

South Florida lost which is good.
Miss state bows out though likely in.
Texas A&M now tied after having 18 point lead.

 

[NCanton Panther]

South Florida lost which is good.
Miss state bows out though likely in.
Texas A&M now tied after having 18 point lead.

A&M down 8 with just over 5 minutes left

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Everyone likes to complain about the Quads. I could be wrong but I’d like to think the Quad system is a good way to summarize team resumes for the initial first cut/comparison. Once they get down to a couple or more teams to make the hard decision on, I sure would hope they drill down to the details when doing so.

Well, did you think our win at Duke was equal to our win at BC? Had they been able to make a shot at the end of the game against UVA the other night, they'd both be lumped in generically as Q1 wins. That's my issue: If you have the entire ranking system, why is there need to use these imperfect quads as if they actually mean something? Just find a multiplier for neutral games and one for road games and use that.