It is amazing to me...

[UPitt129]

That I have seen multiple posts blasting Dixon about the 2011 class of Birch, Gilbert, and Johnson. Yes, it did not work out as all three busted, but that if a class of that caliber signed tomorrow for Pitt for 2016, we would all be jumping for joy.

Hindsight is a powerful, powerful thing....and a good way to make yourself always seem right. The reality is that the 2011 class may have been Dixon's best recruiting class. Three top 100 prospects, one elite prospect in Birch, and a top 15 class.

It just goes to show, like has been said over and over, it isn't all about those star rankings.

 

[ThatPittGuy]

Reasonable people reserve judgement on Dixon's recruiting classes until it's known how many wins those players produced at Pitt.

By that measure, 2011's recruiting was an abject failure and the trend is down. There's no argument here. Wins are down.

The real question is whether the recruiting problems are cyclical or structural.

 

[KiwiJeff]

By that measure, I would say we do not know if we are trending up or down, because we are reserving judgement on how the 2013 and 2014 classes will be, or are you pre-judging those?

 

[vegasgreed]

We are trending down.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[pittizit]

And down

 

[KiwiJeff]

Just so I don't mess it up then, we only reserve judgement on the future when the answer isn't mopey. Got it. I gotta get my mope on.

 

[Jeffburgh]

Context is important, but end of the day

results are what count.

I get your point totally.

in the last 2000s, the hue cand cry was that JD needed to get more highly regarded players.

He started to do that somewhat, but for the most part those players have not panned out for him.

Taylor, his first McDonalds AA, had a low three star college career in reality.

You are correct, I certainly was super happy about the Birch, Gilbert, Johnson class.

But, end of the day, the results are the results.

Ralph Williard had a top 10 class, and got a few other highly regarded guys.

But, he provided results like JD has given the last few years.

JD has a LOT of good will built up, and has earned a LOT of rope.

But, he is using a lot of it right now ...

His magic formula was roster stability, recruit and develop.

Over the last five or so years, that paradigm has slowly deteriorated to the point where the program now is in the kind of state that bad coaches and bad programs have.in terms of players flushing out and a revolving door of floatsom trying to put fingers in the holes in the dyke.

He is a in a really, REALLY bad spot now.

super shallow on talent now, marginal talent in the pipeline and a very tenuous hold on his primary recruit he would build the next team around ...

 

[UPitt129]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Absolutely, results are what matters. That said, the same people that were screaming for Dixon to get higher level recruits are now the ones blasting Dixon for those classes, even though theses classes from 2010-2012 were ranked as dIixon's best.

 

[Cap pitt]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Maybe Dixon can't get top notch recruits because they just don't want to play for him

 

[Harve74]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Originally posted by Cap pitt:
Maybe Dixon can't get top notch recruits because they just don't want to play for him

Charles Smith, Jerome Lane, Bobby Martin, etc. HATED Paul Evans. Still do.

But they came and played for him because the money was right. They liked their Mt. Washington and Shadyside apartments and BMW's.

If you want to understand why we don't sign 5-stars, that's a good place to start.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

If anyone out there can acturetly predict the future email me please. Also predicting how some kids develope and others plateau is not an exact science either. Recuirting Birch, Gilbert ,& Adams with Zanna and Taylor already here who would think the bigs would be ever be an issue and I'm not even counting M Young. The recuritment of guards is way more concerning to me ,other than JRob there's not been a high quality guard added in years. Pitts issues aren't the one and dones ,but in talent evualation and more importantly in acquiring the kids they really want. I'm tried of hearing about JDs style of play ,look at the scores of the tourament games defense rules . If you can't play D your not playing at the next level or at Duke or Ky etc of course you need offense but I just don't buy the style of play issue Sam Young ,Aston Gibbs ,Lamar Patterson all put up enough shots and numbers to satisfy an offensively gifted player. Maybe it's true that JD is not a good enough recuirter to overcome Pitts shortcomings ,the highly sought after transient ,Slice didn't help maybe just maybe Pitt is not as attractive place to play as NCS or other programs that keep beating Pitt in recuirting battles. Who knows what's offered, but its obvious that Pitts package is not attractive enough to get the players they want .I'm not privey to what really goes on in these recuirting battles ,but I'd bet that Pitt doesn't stray far from the straight and narrow and maybe that has a lot to do with. There's too much money at stake not to think otherwise.

 

[thebadby2]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

My thoughts exactly.

And f*&% the star rankings--JD and the guys on this staff should be able to identify the players needed to produce a successful team regardless of star rankings. Some will have high rankings, some will have less impressive rankings, but the point is you have to get the right number and kind of players in every class, or recruiting is a failure. Grabbing at whatever is left and taking transfers that you don't actually need just to fill roster spots is not a formula. Playing three years in a row with 2 true ballhandlers is not a winning formula. Grabbing whatever big body is left after the bell rings is not a winning formula. Having no scorers in the backcourt for 3-4 years straight is not a winning formula. Stacking up 3s and stretch 3s like cordwood while you have no guards or bigs is not a winning formula. Bringing in players that quit or transfer to and from other programs consistently is not a winning formula.

Is anyone, other than the guys who are hung up on assist to turnover ration, and who don't think it's important for PGs to score points (even on a team with no other backcourt scoring), impressed with James Robinson and his high 4 star ranking after his 3 yeas in the program? This was the year where he lost me--I had expected great things from him but I think he has proven that he really is no threat to score and is not a player the opposing defense has to pay much attention to. I sure wish we'd have been able to get his teammate, Oladipo, who was a much lower rated player. We offered but were never in the mix.

I love JD, and he has all the rope he need as far as I'm concerned, but he heeds to fix this wreck that his recruiting failures have caused. It's his job for chrissakes. He deserves our support, but not just a blind pass or a lot of excuses from the diehards. If he hadn't already proven that he can get it done, none of this would be a debate. But since we know he can coach, we know he can win, and we know we can be good under him, all of us have a right to be concerned after 4 straight years of sub-Dixon basketball. And even though we made the dance last year, that team was never built for success either. It went as far as Lamar Patterson could take it, and not a bit further. The issues have been almost entirely personnel related IMO. That is what JD needs to fix.

I'm with JD for the long haul, and I personally think it would be an unmitigated disaster if he left Pitt at this point. But he is not beyond some reproach, questioning or criticism.



.

This post was edited on 4/15 10:40 AM by thebadby2

 

[vinniep33]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Signing 3 highly talented players that only play a total of roughly 60 games out of a possible 180 is poor no matter how you slice it. There appears to have been no rhyme or reason to our recruiting the last 5 years.

We worked our way up to two #1 seeds and now we have missed the NCAAs in two out of the last four. PITT BASKETBALL IS TRENDING DOWNWARD. IT'S FACT. It's not negativity or self fulfilling prophecy or any psychobabble you guys throw out there. What is being done about it? That is the real concern.

 

[thebadby2]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Is that true? That would explain a lot. I assume that would also explain how Pitt got Michigan Mr. Basketball Demetrious Gore out of Detroit.

Without naming any names, how (generally) was the financing done? Boosters through handlers, or some other way?

This post was edited on 4/15 10:31 AM by thebadby2

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

There are people on this board much more in the know than I am but I believe one of the big contributors was a very prominent car dealer of that time. I think I know the name but so I don't wrongly "accuse" the incorrect person I'll let someone else say who it was...if I'm on the right track.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Originally posted by thebadby2:
My thoughts exactly.

And f*&% the star rankings--JD and the guys on this staff should be able to identify the players needed to produce a successful team regardless of star rankings. Some will have high rankings, some will have less impressive rankings, but the point is you have to get the right number and kind of players in every class, or recruiting is a failure. Grabbing at whatever is left and taking transfers that you don't actually need just to fill roster spots is not a formula. Playing three years in a row with 2 true ballhandlers is not a winning formula. Grabbing whatever big body is left after the bell rings is not a winning formula. Having no scorers in the backcourt for 3-4 years straight is not a winning formula. Stacking up 3s and stretch 3s like cordwood while you have no guards or bigs is not a winning formula. Bringing in players that quit or transfer to other programs consistently is not a winning formula.

Is anyone, other than the guys who are hung up on assist to turnover ration, and who don't think it's important for PGs to score points (even on a team with no other backcourt scoring), impressed with James Robinson and his high 4 star ranking after his 3 yeas in the program? This was the year where he lost me--I had expected great things from him but I think he has proven that he really is no threat to score and is not a player the opposing defense has to pay much attention to. I sure wish we'd have been able to get his teammate, Oladipo, who was a much lower rated player. We offered but were never in the mix.

I love JD, and he has all the rope he need as far as I'm concerned, but he heeds to fix this wreck that his recruiting failures have caused. It's his job for chrissakes. He deserves our support, but not just a blind pass or a lot of excuses from the diehards. If he hadn't already proven that he can get it done, none of this would be a debate. But since we know he can coach, we know he can win, and we know we can be good under him, all of us have a right to be concerned after 4 straight years of sub-Dixon basketball. And even though we made the dance last year, that team was never built for success either. It went as far as Lamar Patterson could take it, and not a bit further. The issues have been almost entirely personnel related IMO. That is what JD needs to fix.

I'm with JD for the long haul, and I personally think it would be an unmitigated disaster if he left Pitt at this point. But he is not beyond some reproach, questioning or criticism.



.

This is a really good post. Its honest, true, and fair.

Jamie has earned himself a lot of rope but he's beginning to use it. For the first-time in his coaching career, he essentially has a complete "rebuild." He deserves to coach is way out of it and I have some confidence that he will. He definitely gets at least 2 more years without making the NCAA Tournament before potentially coaching for his job in 2017-18. And he probably gets 3 more years without making the NCAA Tournament before coaching for his job in 2018-19. I just dont see us missing that many NCAA Tournaments though. I think Jamie will get this corrected and be around a long time but the 02-11 run is just going to be the "good old days" like football had in the 70s and 80s. We'll be a bubble program from now on.

 

[NTOP]

It wasn't Debbie Flaherty!! *

*

 

[thebadby2]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Honestly King, you're right to be cautious--it would be a bad idea to name names on any message board. I will amend my post accordingly.

 

[Harve74]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Originally posted by thebadby2:
Is that true? That would explain a lot. I assume that would also explain how Pitt got Michigan Mr. Basketball Demetrious Gore out of Detroit.

Without naming any names, how (generally) was the financing done? Boosters through handlers, or some other way?


This post was edited on 4/15 10:31 AM by thebadby2

It's true.Iit's probably an understatement.

A national columnist wrote a few years ago that EVERY kid in the Top 25 expects SOMETHING.

I'm not about to name names, but boosters pretty much always provide the cash. No university is going to pay for direct rules violations, although one or two coaches have been linked to at least handling payments.

Pederson was hired to keep the boosters separate from the coaches and to get them under control. Thus the end of the Golden Panthers.

A big factor in Fraud's disillusionment with SP was when SP wouldn't let Fraud establish his "Inner Circle" booster group for extra support, i.e. Slush Fund.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Re: Context is important, but end of the day

Originally posted by vinniep33:
Signing 3 highly talented players that only play a total of roughly 60 games out of a possible 180 is poor no matter how you slice it. There appears to have been no rhyme or reason to our recruiting the last 5 years.

We worked our way up to two #1 seeds and now we have missed the NCAAs in two out of the last four. PITT BASKETBALL IS TRENDING DOWNWARD. IT'S FACT. It's not negativity or self fulfilling prophecy or any psychobabble you guys throw out there. What is being done about it? That is the real concern.

To your first stanza...

Totally agree...but, people also not need to go ballistic when we sign kids who aren't ranked high- and just wait to see if they product. Both in hoops and football.

To your second..I disagree... it's a dip, not a trend.
Trends need to be extended over time.

That we have struggled a bit the past 4 years... (the same time frame we've lost two recruiting classes worth of kids)..isn't surprising.

How we recover and how will fill those spots will tell us IF there is a trend. Frankly, we've just returned to a norm- from an aberrantly high level of performance from 2009-2011.

 

[drunkinoakland]

Kiwi, you've created a paradox where we could never decide if we are trending up or down. By the time we had gathered all the information, we'd all likely be dead.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[ThatPittGuy]

Kiwi, are you familiar with the concept of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators?

Might help you...

 

[Jeffburgh]

Yeah

He used to have his center spot set up - get a guy like Taft to play right away while Gray developed, get Blair while McGhee developed.

He SEEMED to do it again with Birch and Gilbert and both flaked out on him while Adams jumped after one year, and he has been scrambling at center ever since.

I think he suffered from some bad luck there, but he should have gotten a GOOD PREP center into the pipeline by now.

Instead he is rotating through the Uechebos, Haughtons and Nix's.

Guard ... Boy, he has just recruited the position for shit for so long now. John Johnson, the other kid from Virginia I think it was ... Just whiffs. Newkirk is a 1 1/2, not a true PG or true 2 guard ...

As noted, getting these 3 1/2 or 3 minus guys like artis, DJ ...

But, he just almost refuses to recruit a traditional 2G. He either gets two guard guy who can't really shoot like Wanny or Wright or a 1 1/2 guy.

Agree on JRob, I preached patience. I expected the normal junior year bump, I also thought he wore down after the U19s.

He has his physical limits, but you still saw him playing in a fog most of the year.

 

[KiwiJeff]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
Kiwi, are you familiar with the concept of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators?

I was just using what you wrote. You said you wait to see how the classes turned out before making a decision. Apparently you do not. Or maybe only when it is expedient to your point to do so.

 

[KiwiJeff]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
Reasonable people reserve judgement on Dixon's recruiting classes until it's known how many wins those players produced at Pitt.

So...are you unreasonable then? By your own definition, you are.

 

[KiwiJeff]

Originally posted by drunkinoakland:
Kiwi, you've created a paradox where we could never decide if we are trending up or down. By the time we had gathered all the information, we'd all likely be dead.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

Depends on what time frame one chooses. I was responding to the notion that nothing can be decided till we see how the classes finish up. Wasn't my suggestion.

ThatPittGuy's leading indicator would have had him kicking Lamar and Brad off the team after one year, but he reserves judgement to decide if someone was bad or good till after they are done, except when he doesn't, then he does the exact opposite. What day is it today?
This post was edited on 4/15 1:08 PM by KiwiJeff

 

[ThatPittGuy]

Oh my goodness, Kiwi. Do you force everybody in your life to be this explicit with you?

I thought it was clear that we're only talking about the recruiting classes that have cycled through the program. That was my point about lagging indicators.

Yes, it remains to be seen how how the recent couple of classes will be judged. Got it now? Feel better?

 

[ThatPittGuy]

By the way, Kiwi, I have really high hopes for the Young / Artis / Jones / Jeter core group of players. I think they can be really good. Does it help you relax a little bit knowing that?

Again, what I'm saying is the established trend is down. And that's concerning.

Please don't make me explain this again.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
By the way, Kiwi, I have really high hopes for the Young / Artis / Jones / Jeter core group of players. I think they can be really good. Does it help you relax a little bit knowing that?

Again, what I'm saying is the established trend is down. And that's concerning.

Please don't make me explain this again.

Don't sweat it. Kiwi's a lost cause. Trying to speak English to him usually doesn't end well.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Originally posted by drunkinoakland:
Kiwi, you've created a paradox where we could never decide if we are trending up or down. By the time we had gathered all the information, we'd all likely be dead.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

I think at this point in time, reserving judgment is fair just because you have something that could qualify as warranting an arbitrary endpoint on which to judge. To me, they had a clear shift in recruiting philosophy after their Elite 8 run, which lasted from 2009 through the 2012 recruiting cycle (with the 2011 class and Pat Skerry being probably the pinnacle of this shift).

To me, they got back to program type players in the 2013 class. I like the early returns on 2014. Damon Wilson and Corey Manigault are Pitt types of kids in 2015 and 2016.

I want to see where they are in 2 years (after this huge group of rising juniors leaves). The Pitt teams of old would have some rising sophomores and juniors who were ready to step up and take on larger roles. If Pitt has a nice core of talent then, I'll feel good about where the program still is.

I'm also encouraged that they cut ties with a kid like Mostella last year, who just didn't seem to be a fit in terms of either playing style or off-court attitude. I'm optimistic their priority now is one where they place an emphasis on fit again, instead of just trying to stockpile as many stars as possible and trying to pound square pegs into round holes.

I fully agree that results matter, but it's probably fair to acknowledge that a) Pitt's recruiting philosophy DID shift and b) that shift was in line with what the fanbase believed was the overriding issue.

 

[NCPitt]

Originally posted by Sean Miller Fan:

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
By the way, Kiwi, I have really high hopes for the Young / Artis / Jones / Jeter core group of players. I think they can be really good. Does it help you relax a little bit knowing that?

Again, what I'm saying is the established trend is down. And that's concerning.

Please don't make me explain this again.

Don't sweat it. Kiwi's a lost cause. Trying to speak English to him usually doesn't end well.

Kiwi understood it perfectly. Others...not so much. Probably because the right interpretation fails to align with their agenda.

 

[ThatPittGuy]

What's the agenda? To undermine the Pitt hoops program via posts on a message board?

Snap out of it.

 

[NCPitt]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
What's the agenda? To undermine the Pitt hoops program via posts on a message board?

Snap out of it.

I don't know but the logic in this thread is off the rails.

Kiwi nailed it and the rest defy logic by claiming otherwise.

So its either an agenda...or ignorance.

 

[ThatPittGuy]

Originally posted by NCPitt:

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
What's the agenda? To undermine the Pitt hoops program via posts on a message board?

Snap out of it.

I don't know but the logic in this thread is off the rails.

Kiwi nailed it and the rest defy logic by claiming otherwise.

So its either an agenda...or ignorance.

Any discussion you aren't able to follow or find agreement with is an agenda... or ignorance.

Is that right?

 

[NCPitt]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:

Originally posted by NCPitt:

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
What's the agenda? To undermine the Pitt hoops program via posts on a message board?

Snap out of it.

I don't know but the logic in this thread is off the rails.

Kiwi nailed it and the rest defy logic by claiming otherwise.

So its either an agenda...or ignorance.

Any discussion you aren't able to follow or find agreement with is an agenda... or ignorance.

Is that right?

I'm not the one who isn't following.

 

[ThatPittGuy]

Are you sure?

 

[NCPitt]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
Are you sure?

That lack of certainty tells me I'm right.

Look, this is simple, Your first post made the claim that the "trend is down" based on your standard of the wins in a single recruiting class. Kiwi called you on it and you tried to explain away your misstep. My comments supporting Kiwi were made based on that exchange.

Now, you asked what the agenda is. There is a contingent here that wants to conclude a trend exists because they like to bitch. In this case, they stretched their agenda to make your statistically insignificant data points conclusion fit their opinion. The fact that so many jumped on your erroneous statement to justify their opinion tells me that there is an agenda.

If somebody wants to talk trends, there are a lot better arguments than your single recruiting class.

Let me be clear, though. I saw underperformance last year and have yet to see light at the end of the tunnel in this recruiting cycle. But, I think it DT who stated this more a dip than a trend. As a true fan, I have faith that the ship will be righted before a trend IS established. True fans are optimistic while recognizing the reality. True fans are not pessimists.

 

[ThatPittGuy]

I was all set to be done with this back-and-forth, but this last post wasn't totally full of snark and I appreciate that. So, I'll give it another shot.

Firstly, true fans are people. People are optimists and pessimists. Personally, I'm ambivalent day to day toward the future of Pitt hoops. I hope we can return to 2009. There are a number of factors that make me doubtful that's going to happen. Plenty of folks see it that way. That doesn't mean there is an agenda. We're Pitt fans for goodness sake. I think people have forgotten what "agenda" means... but that's probably a discussion for the Locker Room.

Is it sometimes annoying when an exasperated Pitt fan makes some melodramatic post after the slightest bit of bad news? Absolutely. So are the staunch defenses of the program's shortcomings and the lectures from "true" fans about optimism. Spare us.

As for the trend... let's agree to avoid the phrase "statistically insignificant." Outside of a small group of posters on this board, the robustness of analysis offered here makes the use of that terminology laughable. Certainly nothing in THIS thread would qualify. If you want to take exception to how I've characterized "trend", I can live with that. Lag is an elusive concept, I suppose.

Let's hope DT is right about this being a dip. All it takes is a couple things to break our way. We've had a lot of bad bounces these past few years. I agree with those who credit Dixon for keeping the ship afloat where most others would have sunk. He's a hell of a coach. But, lately, his recruiting has been... hell.

 

[NCPitt]

Originally posted by ThatPittGuy:
I was all set to be done with this back-and-forth, but this last post wasn't totally full of snark and I appreciate that. So, I'll give it another shot.

Firstly, true fans are people. People are optimists and pessimists. Personally, I'm ambivalent day to day toward the future of Pitt hoops. I hope we can return to 2009. There are a number of factors that make me doubtful that's going to happen. Plenty of folks see it that way. That doesn't mean there is an agenda. We're Pitt fans for goodness sake. I think people have forgotten what "agenda" means... but that's probably a discussion for the Locker Room.

Is it sometimes annoying when an exasperated Pitt fan makes some melodramatic post after the slightest bit of bad news? Absolutely. So are the staunch defenses of the program's shortcomings and the lectures from "true" fans about optimism. Spare us.

As for the trend... let's agree to avoid the phrase "statistically insignificant." Outside of a small group of posters on this board, the robustness of analysis offered here makes the use of that terminology laughable. Certainly nothing in THIS thread would qualify. If you want to take exception to how I've characterized "trend", I can live with that. Lag is an elusive concept, I suppose.

Let's hope DT is right about this being a dip. All it takes is a couple things to break our way. We've had a lot of bad bounces these past few years. I agree with those who credit Dixon for keeping the ship afloat where most others would have sunk. He's a hell of a coach. But, lately, his recruiting has been... hell.

Yours was a reasonable post until the "Spare me." line. If you want me to "spare you" of my opinion, please spare me from yours.

As an economist, I understand statistics and lagging and leading indicators. So, if you're implying that I don't know what statistically significant is, well, spare me.