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It's cold, and here are some cold hard recruiting facts

Read on Yahoo 22 of the 33 5 star recruits on rivals went to 4 schools this year. There are a handful of schools that get all the talent. Pitt isn't and won't be one of them.

But we can compete for the coastal, which we have and maybe have a magical season occasionally. That should be the goal.

We need a "style" a "brand" of football to help us with recruiting. Look at wisconsin they don't get all the top talent, but their system allows for good QB, OL (development) and RB recruiting. The WR/TE follow from winning. Defense too.

We need to have a system like "RBU" where we know our style will attract high end players at specific positions. Maybe whipple will make it "QBU", but it doesn't seem like a natural fit with HCPN.
 
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We need a "style" a "brand" of football to help us with recruiting. Look at wisconsin they don't get all the top talent, but their system allows for good QB, OL (development) and RB recruiting. The WR/TE follow from winning. Defense too.

We need to have a system like "RBU" where we know our style will attract high end players at specific positions. Maybe whipple will make it "QBU", but it doesn't seem like a natural fit with HCPN.

It’s really incredible that Wisconsin produces such incredible offensive lines. I don’t think they travel far to find these kids either. But, even Wisconsin has struck a balance. Teams know that Wisconsin wants to pound the ball down your throat, but they can run play-action and kill you too. That was the most trusting thing last year, Pitt should have feasted on play-action last year.
 
Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts
  • 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
  • 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
  • 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
  • 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.
So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

Can’t argue with any of that...

However. what frustrates a lot of us, is the fact that there are teams who consistently recruit as good or worse than Pitt doing better on the field.

In my opinion if Pitt wants to play in better bowls and have a better record is to scrap the pro set offense for a more dynamic offense and schedule more manageable out of conference games
 
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I am clearly in the minority regarding the OL. I like what is in the pipeline. Large athletic recruits. Perhaps not the numbers given the three years out thing Chris harps about. But these two from this class along with Dick and Goncalves point to at least a program that is looking for similar types. Add in Warren and Drake and you can see some rather Wisconsin-like size. Guess we'll see how they develop and are coached.
 
Can’t argue with any of that...

However. what frustrates a lot of us, is the fact that there are teams who consistently recruit as good or worse than Pitt doing better on the field.

In my opinion if Pitt wants to play in better bowls and have a better record is to scrap the pro set offense for a more dynamic offense and schedule more manageable out of conference games

Like Toddy's Gas & Go offense that he touted?
 
I am clearly in the minority regarding the OL. I like what is in the pipeline. Large athletic recruits. Perhaps not the numbers given the three years out thing Chris harps about. But these two from this class along with Dick and Goncalves point to at least a program that is looking for similar types. Add in Warren and Drake and you can see some rather Wisconsin-like size. Guess we'll see how they develop and are coached.

This class and last year's was better in terms of quality.
 
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Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts
  • 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
  • 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
  • 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
  • 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.
So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

Is your stat on star draftees based on the percent of the NFL draft or the percent that get drafted by the NFL. I kind of find it hard to believe that 60% of the NFL players drafted every year are 5 star players simply because in a given college recruiting year there are not that many 5 star players. So its not surprising that a greater percentage of the 5 star players get drafted.

Given the limited number of 5 and 4 stars each year, teams like Pitt have to be much better at evaluating talent and finding kids who are 3 stars that have high ceilings. Given how the talent on defense has improved significantly since Duzz took over, they appear to be pretty good on that side of the ball. Not surprising since that is his specialty.

However where theyv'e fallen short is on the offensive side of the ball where they have had no continuity in the coaching staff.

So I would take issue that this class will not likely make a difference. The question is, with whipple assisting, are they better at assessing offensive talent ? Time will tell. Most of the highly ranked players are on that side of the ball.
 
This is precisely why those of us who lived through the glory years of the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s are so bitterly disappointed with Pitt football.

So what you are saying is that you pine for the lawless days when there were no class limits (Majors brought in 76 recruits his first year) and have the boosters ahem grease a bunch of palms?

Pitt recruits at the level it should be recruiting at. There is no real difference from 25-50 in terms of class rankings. The same handful of teams that make the CFP each year are always in the Top 10 in recruiting. That is an impossible nut to crack.

As Pitt-Girl noted, there are a lot of miserable people on this forum
 
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The best chance at success for Pitt is to land good players and then develop them. We are not going to land a bunch of great players like Ohio State, Clemson, Bama, LSU, etc.
PITT also should be sure they market the "you can play early" if you're a great one and work hard.

But that goes away as PITT improves recruiting and begins to get better quality players but for now market that PITT football staff.

PITT and other programs have to find the developing HS players. A guy who isn't quite there yet but has upside. Lots of HS athletes are early developers and are almost maxed out as HS seniors.
 
If I was in the AD I would call up Mike Leach and offer him a bunch of money, though I don't think he would like the city life. If you can't get Leach go for exciting offense, the floor is lower but the ceiling is a lot higher.
 
So what you are saying is that you pine for the lawless days when there were no class limits (Majors brought in 76 recruits his first year) and have the boosters ahem grease a bunch of palms?

Pitt recruits at the level it should be recruiting at. There is no real difference from 25-50 in terms of class rankings. The same handful of teams that make the CFP each year are always in the Top 10 in recruiting. That is an impossible nut to crack.

As Pitt-Girl noted, there are a lot of miserable people on this forum

I pine for the results of those days. I was never aware of any real cheating on Pitt's part (if you say there was I will take your word for it). However, Pitt never got caught by the NCAA with a serious violation if there were any such.

Also, to be clear, the 76 recruit year was a one time shot in Majors first year to fill a very empty talent cupboard and was entirely within the NCAA rules at the time. Subsequent classes were in the 30-35 range which was, at the time, also within the rules and more typical. IMHO, the 25-85 rule intended to make it easier for teams other than the top few to succeed has had the opposite effect and virtually insures that only those few top schools can keep everyone else down by scarfing up the 5 and high 4 stars and limiting how many lower 4-stars and 3-stars that lower in the pecking order schools can take. this prevents those schools (like Pitt) from "mining" larger numbers of higher potential 3-star "diamonds in the rough" from the pool of 3-stars in order to better compete with the top teams.

All of these things being aired, I find myself at the point each season now that once Pitt has had its 4th loss I stop watching games and begin hoping that the next season will finally be better because for me the season has once again become a disappointment.
 
this is a good point. every year we see multiple teams with recruiting classes that are annually far much worse than ours and they are in the top 20 and often higher..

I think that is why people don't hold too much stock in these rankings and further validates that the difference between a 30th ranked class and a 50th is often very subjective and very wrong..
What it really means is some coaches are better than others.
 
Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts
  • 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
  • 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
  • 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
  • 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.
So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

Love the post. Point by point:
1. Pitt won’t likely be a perennial top 10 school, but a top 10 finish at any point gives their recruiting an edge. They need a breakout season with even a top 20 finish and they can drive some playmakers into the program.

2. Kids playing 4-6 hrs drive from their home doesn’t apply as much now as it did 10 years ago. A lot of Pitt’s current class is far more than that drive. Combine that with playing an away game a year within driving distance from home and it makes the distance less of an obstacle to overcome. Not everyone can play for Clemson, Bama and Florida on the east coast either. The recruiting rankings don’t normalize their stars for region either. It is possible a 3 star in Florida or Georgia could be a 4 star in PA, just played against tougher competition.

3. As my response to point 1, won’t be a perennial top 10 and likely never a national brand. Really all they need is exposure and the ACCn should provide that. Win 10 games and keep the offensive assistants in place for more than 2 years and start they’ll start getting some recognition. If you string together a few solid seasons then the momentum replenishes the program.

4. Star ratings I am sure matter to some degree, but largely biased to the south I am sure. I will take 3 stars from Florida, Georgia and Alabama over most 3 stars from the northeast. These guys play football in fall and spring. Combine that with early enrollment and you have guys ready to play early.

5. Yes. This is the same class on paper but the geography has changed. 7 players enrolling early. I am not betting my house that this class changes Pitt’s legacy of mediocrity, but it sure does look like they have changed the direction of their recruiting.

I don’t disagree with your well-researched opinion. I think this is the first class I have seen that Pitt has finally tapped into the ACC footprint. If they can get a breakout 10 win season in the next year or 2, produce some offense and retain Whipple, they will have an opportunity to correct for the other factors in terms of recruiting.
 
In 2003 and 2004, Clemson had the 66 and 53 ranked classes. They were horrible. Now look at them.

Coaching Matters! Facilities Matter. We need to find our Dabo Swinney and find a big fish to donate and get more football alumn to be engaged like AD.

And not to bring up the stadium debate (but I am even though it is like the house dems and reps), I firmly believe that the move off campus was the death of Pitt Football. Well, maybe the final nail in the coffin, the 90's were more like the death of Pitt football.
 
In 2003 and 2004, Clemson had the 66 and 53 ranked classes. They were horrible. Now look at them.

Coaching Matters! Facilities Matter. We need to find our Dabo Swinney and find a big fish to donate and get more football alumn to be engaged like AD.

And not to bring up the stadium debate (but I am even though it is like the house dems and reps), I firmly believe that the move off campus was the death of Pitt Football. Well, maybe the final nail in the coffin, the 90's were more like the death of Pitt football.

The death of it? My god you are dramatic.
 
I I firmly believe that the move off campus was the death of Pitt Football. Well, maybe the final nail in the coffin, the 90's were more like the death of Pitt football.

Pederson.....walking up and down the aisles of Pitt Stadium, shaking hands with every fan...thanking them for coming.

Pitt football died LONG before they moved off campus.
 
No at 45 or 50 it puts us right where 8-5 teams in crappy bowls are ranked in the season and recruiting. Star ratings matter and playing in an empty stadium in front of a sparse crowd matters as well. Duzz is faced with a huge stumbling block no one attends our games.
When he consistently fields an entertaining product, people will jump onboard. Sadly his 1st 2 years were his best.
 
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