Good Afternoon Lairmen,
Now that the dust has settled on what ended up being a disappointing finish to the 2019 season, I think it was time to reflect on the season, and as such I have added my thoughts here.
1. This team ended up exactly where we thought it would - Prior to the 2019 campaign, the Lair did their traditional record prediction, which is a fairly standard practice for the fans of most teams. Much like many of the posts on here, there were many people fairly down on the prediction, and many people very high - and like most things - reality ended up in the middle. I think if you averaged out everyone's predictions (I haven't), it would have fallen somewhere around the 6.5-7.5 win range. This is exactly where we thought they would be. While everyone, including myself, became more optimistic as the season wore on, the correction to the season took place, and we landed squarely back at 7 wins. Regardless of what the record was at any point in the season, it still ended up at 7 wins.
2. The defense ended up exactly where we were told it would - When Narduzzi was hired, he came in with a terrific defensive coaching pedigree. While many people argued that his defense was built for the archaic Big Ten offenses, there was still a proven track record of success with his system. That success, as many of us pointed out, or were even told by MSU guys, came with a caveat : his system was going to drive everyone nuts with its ineffectiveness until 4 or 5 years down the line, when he has had ample time to recruit, develop, and teach his system. Again, regardless of what NFL players may or may not have been on the roster at any given time, his defense has come about in the exact way we were told it would: maddeningly, frustratingly, slowly, whatever word you want to use to describe the transition. It truly is a defense that relies on each level for success. The DL, the LBs, and the secondary all truly need to perform at their expected levels for this system to work. So while we have had several players get into the NFL in the secondary, there were few LBs or DLs that also made it (outside of practice squads). This year, he finally had the defense in place that he's been building for - a relentless pass rush, a reactive LB core, and an athletic secondary - and the results were overly positive.
3. The offense ended up exactly where we were told it would - When Lairmen and national pundits alike took a look at our team for the 2019 season, the same issues kept getting hammered home: Almost completely new OL, no proven TEs, replacing two 1,000 yard RBs. QB with promise, a couple of returning WRs with promise. However, 7/8 positions on the starting offense were being replaced (depending on base set). Think about that, 63%-72% of the starting offense was basically unknown after the end of last season. Because of that, no one was really hyped for the offense - and in reality - why would anyone? Couple all of that with yet another new OC, with a completely new playbook, new terminology, and you got exactly what you deserved. An offense that showed flashes at times, but at its core was a dysfunctional mess. Just when you would think it was gaining some traction, they would do something, like, oh, drop a pass - or two - or three. It was painful to watch the execution of the gameplan at times. It was painful to watch the gameplan itself at times.
4. We perform exactly where our recruiting says we would - I am not here to stir up the age old question of whether or not recruiting rankings actually mean something or not. You don't have to. There is empirical data out there showing a direct relation between recruiting rankings and how a team ends up performing on the field. They are a guide: meant to lay out an overall picture for people that may not necessarily follow recruiting as closely as us fanatics do. Think of it kinda like the Bible. Any reasonable person doesn't believe word for word everything that is written in the Bible - however the overall premise of the Bible can convey a proper message. Recruiting rankings are similar in that regard. Not every 5* is going to be an NFLer - not every 2* is set to play at Slippery Rock. However, the percentages, whether on Rivals or 247, clearly show that a higher percentage of elite recruits make the NFL as opposed to lower. So when you look at our recruiting rankings that hover in the high 40s to mid 30s, isn't that where you would about rank this team in a poll if one extended that far?
So what should we hope for and expect for the 2020 season? That's coming in a new thread soon.
Now that the dust has settled on what ended up being a disappointing finish to the 2019 season, I think it was time to reflect on the season, and as such I have added my thoughts here.
1. This team ended up exactly where we thought it would - Prior to the 2019 campaign, the Lair did their traditional record prediction, which is a fairly standard practice for the fans of most teams. Much like many of the posts on here, there were many people fairly down on the prediction, and many people very high - and like most things - reality ended up in the middle. I think if you averaged out everyone's predictions (I haven't), it would have fallen somewhere around the 6.5-7.5 win range. This is exactly where we thought they would be. While everyone, including myself, became more optimistic as the season wore on, the correction to the season took place, and we landed squarely back at 7 wins. Regardless of what the record was at any point in the season, it still ended up at 7 wins.
2. The defense ended up exactly where we were told it would - When Narduzzi was hired, he came in with a terrific defensive coaching pedigree. While many people argued that his defense was built for the archaic Big Ten offenses, there was still a proven track record of success with his system. That success, as many of us pointed out, or were even told by MSU guys, came with a caveat : his system was going to drive everyone nuts with its ineffectiveness until 4 or 5 years down the line, when he has had ample time to recruit, develop, and teach his system. Again, regardless of what NFL players may or may not have been on the roster at any given time, his defense has come about in the exact way we were told it would: maddeningly, frustratingly, slowly, whatever word you want to use to describe the transition. It truly is a defense that relies on each level for success. The DL, the LBs, and the secondary all truly need to perform at their expected levels for this system to work. So while we have had several players get into the NFL in the secondary, there were few LBs or DLs that also made it (outside of practice squads). This year, he finally had the defense in place that he's been building for - a relentless pass rush, a reactive LB core, and an athletic secondary - and the results were overly positive.
3. The offense ended up exactly where we were told it would - When Lairmen and national pundits alike took a look at our team for the 2019 season, the same issues kept getting hammered home: Almost completely new OL, no proven TEs, replacing two 1,000 yard RBs. QB with promise, a couple of returning WRs with promise. However, 7/8 positions on the starting offense were being replaced (depending on base set). Think about that, 63%-72% of the starting offense was basically unknown after the end of last season. Because of that, no one was really hyped for the offense - and in reality - why would anyone? Couple all of that with yet another new OC, with a completely new playbook, new terminology, and you got exactly what you deserved. An offense that showed flashes at times, but at its core was a dysfunctional mess. Just when you would think it was gaining some traction, they would do something, like, oh, drop a pass - or two - or three. It was painful to watch the execution of the gameplan at times. It was painful to watch the gameplan itself at times.
4. We perform exactly where our recruiting says we would - I am not here to stir up the age old question of whether or not recruiting rankings actually mean something or not. You don't have to. There is empirical data out there showing a direct relation between recruiting rankings and how a team ends up performing on the field. They are a guide: meant to lay out an overall picture for people that may not necessarily follow recruiting as closely as us fanatics do. Think of it kinda like the Bible. Any reasonable person doesn't believe word for word everything that is written in the Bible - however the overall premise of the Bible can convey a proper message. Recruiting rankings are similar in that regard. Not every 5* is going to be an NFLer - not every 2* is set to play at Slippery Rock. However, the percentages, whether on Rivals or 247, clearly show that a higher percentage of elite recruits make the NFL as opposed to lower. So when you look at our recruiting rankings that hover in the high 40s to mid 30s, isn't that where you would about rank this team in a poll if one extended that far?
So what should we hope for and expect for the 2020 season? That's coming in a new thread soon.
