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Louisville Game @ The Yum & Other Dribbles ...

DT_PITT

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** If you are a stat geek, perhaps something you find fun on the ESPN Gamecast is the “Win Probability” number that is constantly updated during the course of the game.

** We started this game at an 88% win probability. Mostly that number is a pretty sad indictment of the hapless Cards considering they are playing at home.

** And of course our Panthers didn’t come out like gangbusters, and their win probability dropped to 75% when the Cards snagged their biggest lead of the game at 14-10. Five Panther three pointers later, that same win probability was back up over 90%.

** The worst it dipped for the remainder of the game was 88%, and it remained over 98% for the last nine minutes.

** That’s a far too long a way of saying this game was never in doubt.

** As noted, it wasn’t really in doubt because Louisville is beyond terrible. But interestingly, there is some talent on this Cards squad, or at least some fairly highly ranked talent. Experienced for sure, but there are a handful of players who some of the best programs wanted.

** I suspect the Cards will beat a team or two in the ACC this year in the Yum Center. All we know now 100% is that it won’t be us. Still, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tiny bit concerned going into the game that it could be.

** Maybe at some point during this season we will all become completely comfortable with the notion that this is a very solid basketball team truly headed for the Tournament. But unfortunately, the specter of four previous slides still lingers off in the distance.

** After the tonight, it’s a little further away still.

** It’s further away because the Panthers have six legit guns who can garner double digits on any given night. Over the last nine games, Burton has led the Panthers in scoring three times, Nike twice, and Blake, Fede, Greg and Nelly once. All six have had a 20 point outing during that stretch.

** Toss in increasing contributions for GDiaz and Nate and we are becoming harder and harder to guard.

** So hard in fact that on a night when it took a better part of the game for Nelly or Blake to hit a shot, it really didn’t matter.

** In 16 halves of the Panthers 8 ACC games, we’ve scored at least 33 points in all except two of them -- the first half against Virginia (followed by a 45 point 2nd half) and the second half against Duke. That's some very consistent scoring.

** Pomeroy now ranks our offense at #42, but this still includes the three struggles to start the year.

** Perhaps another idea we Panther fans should be comfortable with is this team is never going to be afraid to shoot the ball. Sure, some of those will look like bad or untimely shots to us. But I suspect Capel and his staff never want the guys to question their shots.

** Maybe even during those early darker days, the staff never wanted the guys to question their shots. It sure looks like it’s paying off now.

** This doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have room to grow, most notably on the defensive glass. The Cards got about 8 easy points that way today, and without those, our win probability today may not have ever dropped below it’s starting point.

** So now we come home for three, and our win probability for each is over 60%. Get at least two of them and perhaps even the most skeptical fan will completely put to rest that a big slide could still make a mark. Maybe then the only statistic we all will be focused upon is the number of our seed.

** I’ll leave by putting in a plug for one last number. Let’s see if we if we can get a realistic five figure attendance to support on Panthers in person on Saturday. These guys are fun and they are good. They’ve come a long way since early in the season, and the Coaching staff and program has come an amazingly long way since they ended last year with a five game slide.

** And you don’t have to be a stat to geek to enjoy them!
 
** If you are a stat geek, perhaps something you find fun on the ESPN Gamecast is the “Win Probability” number that is constantly updated during the course of the game.

** We started this game at an 88% win probability. Mostly that number is a pretty sad indictment of the hapless Cards considering they are playing at home.

** And of course our Panthers didn’t come out like gangbusters, and their win probability dropped to 75% when the Cards snagged their biggest lead of the game at 14-10. Five Panther three pointers later, that same win probability was back up over 90%.

** The worst it dipped for the remainder of the game was 88%, and it remained over 98% for the last nine minutes.

** That’s a really long way of saying this game was never in doubt.

** As noted, it wasn’t really in doubt because Louisville is beyond terrible. But interestingly, there is some talent on this Cards squad, or at least some fairly highly ranked talent. Experienced for sure, but there are a handful of players who some of the best programs wanted.

** I suspect the Cards will beat a team or two in the ACC this year in the Yum Center. All we know now 100% that it won’t be us. Still, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tiny bit concerned going into the game that it could be.

** Maybe at some point during this season we will all become completely comfortable with the notion that this is a very solid basketball team truly headed for the Tournament. But unfortunately, the specter of four previous slides still lingers in the off in the distance.

** After the tonight, it’s a little further away still.

** It’s further away because the Panthers have six legit guns who can garner double digits on any given night. Over the last nine games, Burton has led the Panthers in scoring three times, Nike twice, and Blake, Fede, Greg and Nelly once. All six have had a 20 point outing during that stretch.

** Toss in increasing contributions for GDiaz and Nate and we becoming harder and harder to guard.

** So hard in fact that on a night when it took a better part of the game for Nelly or Blake to hit a shot, it really didn’t matter.

** In 16 halves of the Panthers 8 ACC games, we’ve scored at least 33 points in all of the except two of them -- the first half against Virginia (followed by a 45 point 2nd half) and the second half against Duke. That's some very consistent scoring.

** Pomeroy now ranks our offense at #42, but this still includes the three struggles to start the year.

** Perhaps another idea that we Panther fans should be comfortable with is this team is never going to be afraid to shoot the ball. Sure, some of those will look like bad or untimely shots to us fans. But I suspect Capel and his staff never want the guys to question their shots.

** Maybe even during those early darker days, the staff never wanted the guys to question their shots. It sure looks like it’s paying off now.

** This doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have room to grow, most notably on the defensive glass. The Cards got about 8 easy points that way today, and without those, our win probability today may not have ever dropped below it’s starting point.

** So now we come home for three, and our win probability for each is over 60%. Get at least two of them and perhaps even the most skeptical fan will completely put to rest that a big slide could still make a mark. Maybe then the only statistic we all will be focused upon is the number of our seed.

** I’ll leave by putting in a plug for one last number. Let’s see if we if we can a realistic five figure attendance to support on Panthers in person on Saturday. These guys are fun and they are good. They’ve come a long way since early in the season, and the Coaching staff and program has come an amazingly long way since they ended last year with a five game slide.

** And you don’t have to be a stat to geek to enjoy them!
-The game was almost never in doubt and I wasn’t really ever too worried about us not covering the spread either.

-Those who are worried about us faltering should stop and just enjoy a really fun season. And that does not meant that I think we are a lock for the tourney, because we are far from that. However, we are NOT going to collapse. Yeah, we may lose some games against some good teams and slightly miss out on the tourney, but we are not going to fade away.

-This is a huge 3 game home streak, maybe not quite as tough as UNC, UVA and Clemson, but it is not too far behind. FSU playing better Ana both Wake and Miami are very talented teams. 2-1 would be just fine with me and 3-0 would just be gravy.

-I won’t be in on Saturday, but have to come in next Wed for the Jerome game. That will be a really fun game against a very talented and well coached WF team.
 
Awesome as always.

I’ll leave by putting in a plug for one last number. Let’s see if we if we can a realistic five figure attendance to support on Panthers in person on Saturday. These guys are fun and they are good. They’ve come a long way since early in the season, and the Coaching staff and program has come an amazingly long way since they ended last year with a five game slide.

I
believe it is going to happen. Just judging by what tickets are available for purchase compared to earlier games. I also think that the students are starting to catch on. Remember, this group of kids was in elementary or middle school the last time we were any good.
 
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I believe it is going to happen. Just judging by what tickets are available for purchase compared to earlier games. I also think that the students are starting to catch on. Remember, this group of kids was in elementary or middle school the last time we were any good.


There appear to be way more tickets available for Saturday than when I looked at the map a day or two before the Clemson game. Of course the Clemson game was probably the best attended game of the year, and certainly the one with the most Pitt fans in attendance.
 
-The game was almost never in doubt and I wasn’t really ever too worried about us not covering the spread either.

-Those who are worried about us faltering should stop and just enjoy a really fun season. And that does not meant that I think we are a lock for the tourney, because we are far from that. However, we are NOT going to collapse. Yeah, we may lose some games against some good teams and slightly miss out on the tourney, but we are not going to fade away.

-This is a huge 3 game home streak, maybe not quite as tough as UNC, UVA and Clemson, but it is not too far behind. FSU playing better Ana both Wake and Miami are very talented teams. 2-1 would be just fine with me and 3-0 would just be gravy.

-I won’t be in on Saturday, but have to come in next Wed for the Jerome game. That will be a really fun game against a very talented and well coached WF team.
2-1 would be fine. FSU is the trap game of the bunch, especially after their big win at ND. Wake is a pure tossup and we are probably a slight dog to Miami. You want to go 2-1 here and then win the last 4 at home. That gets us to 8-2 at home. Find 2 more road wins and I think we are good. Va Tech/ND/FSU - win 2 of those 3 and we are 14-6. That’s doable.
 
There appear to be way more tickets available for Saturday than when I looked at the map a day or two before the Clemson game. Of course the Clemson game was probably the best attended game of the year, and certainly the one with the most Pitt fans in attendance.

My rough guess was about 8,500 to 9,000 in actual attendance for Clemson.
 
My rough guess was about 8,500 to 9,000 in actual attendance for Clemson.


Yeah, I'd say that's about right. I think it was the highest actual attendance of the year, but if someone wanted to argue for the game against the Hoopies I wouldn't object too strenuously.
 
Yeah, I'd say that's about right. I think it was the highest actual attendance of the year, but if someone wanted to argue for the game against the Hoopies I wouldn't object too strenuously.

I wouldn't either because I wasn't there. I'm certainly not bummed it missed it now either. But it was the first game I missed since Va Tech in 2014.
 
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The two stat's from tonight's game that stood out were:

21 assists on 28 made FG; 14/34 from beyond the arc

As you said, rebounding is our worst statistic; not sure that this team is built to out-rebound our opponents, but if they can continue to keep turnovers to a minimum, play good defense, and keep making shots where they're available, this Pitt squad should finish the season well
 
-The game was almost never in doubt and I wasn’t really ever too worried about us not covering the spread either.

-Those who are worried about us faltering should stop and just enjoy a really fun season. And that does not meant that I think we are a lock for the tourney, because we are far from that. However, we are NOT going to collapse. Yeah, we may lose some games against some good teams and slightly miss out on the tourney, but we are not going to fade away.

-This is a huge 3 game home streak, maybe not quite as tough as UNC, UVA and Clemson, but it is not too far behind. FSU playing better Ana both Wake and Miami are very talented teams. 2-1 would be just fine with me and 3-0 would just be gravy.

-I won’t be in on Saturday, but have to come in next Wed for the Jerome game. That will be a really fun game against a very talented and well coached WF team.
FSU is usually a big team. Capel will need to be good at managing fouls.

With our inability to rebound, it is very had to decide if you want a crew that "lets them play" or not?
 
Spot on, as always.

I also had a little pregame apprehension because, after all, it is Louisville, but it took less than 10 minutes to realize that they are a terrible basketball team which can’t shoot and doesn’t play defense.

Our weakness on the boards, and particularly allowing offensive rebounds, was the only real cause for concern. They had 9 offensive boards which created 15 second chance points. It would have been more if they could make a layup…or almost any other shot.

The last few years have made me wary about getting too confident about a Pitt basketball team, but this team appears to be pretty solid.
 
** If you are a stat geek, perhaps something you find fun on the ESPN Gamecast is the “Win Probability” number that is constantly updated during the course of the game.

** We started this game at an 88% win probability. Mostly that number is a pretty sad indictment of the hapless Cards considering they are playing at home.

** And of course our Panthers didn’t come out like gangbusters, and their win probability dropped to 75% when the Cards snagged their biggest lead of the game at 14-10. Five Panther three pointers later, that same win probability was back up over 90%.

** The worst it dipped for the remainder of the game was 88%, and it remained over 98% for the last nine minutes.

** That’s a far too long a way of saying this game was never in doubt.

** As noted, it wasn’t really in doubt because Louisville is beyond terrible. But interestingly, there is some talent on this Cards squad, or at least some fairly highly ranked talent. Experienced for sure, but there are a handful of players who some of the best programs wanted.

** I suspect the Cards will beat a team or two in the ACC this year in the Yum Center. All we know now 100% that it won’t be us. Still, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tiny bit concerned going into the game that it could be.

** Maybe at some point during this season we will all become completely comfortable with the notion that this is a very solid basketball team truly headed for the Tournament. But unfortunately, the specter of four previous slides still lingers in the off in the distance.

** After the tonight, it’s a little further away still.

** It’s further away because the Panthers have six legit guns who can garner double digits on any given night. Over the last nine games, Burton has led the Panthers in scoring three times, Nike twice, and Blake, Fede, Greg and Nelly once. All six have had a 20 point outing during that stretch.

** Toss in increasing contributions for GDiaz and Nate and we are becoming harder and harder to guard.

** So hard in fact that on a night when it took a better part of the game for Nelly or Blake to hit a shot, it really didn’t matter.

** In 16 halves of the Panthers 8 ACC games, we’ve scored at least 33 points in all of the except two of them -- the first half against Virginia (followed by a 45 point 2nd half) and the second half against Duke. That's some very consistent scoring.

** Pomeroy now ranks our offense at #42, but this still includes the three struggles to start the year.

** Perhaps another idea we Panther fans should be comfortable with is this team is never going to be afraid to shoot the ball. Sure, some of those will look like bad or untimely shots to us. But I suspect Capel and his staff never want the guys to question their shots.

** Maybe even during those early darker days, the staff never wanted the guys to question their shots. It sure looks like it’s paying off now.

** This doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have room to grow, most notably on the defensive glass. The Cards got about 8 easy points that way today, and without those, our win probability today may not have ever dropped below it’s starting point.

** So now we come home for three, and our win probability for each is over 60%. Get at least two of them and perhaps even the most skeptical fan will completely put to rest that a big slide could still make a mark. Maybe then the only statistic we all will be focused upon is the number of our seed.

** I’ll leave by putting in a plug for one last number. Let’s see if we if we can get a realistic five figure attendance to support on Panthers in person on Saturday. These guys are fun and they are good. They’ve come a long way since early in the season, and the Coaching staff and program has come an amazingly long way since they ended last year with a five game slide.

** And you don’t have to be a stat to geek to enjoy them!
I honestly now don't see a slide at all coming and it's not because Capel and his staff all turned into Coach K overnight. Most of the players are new and are upperclassmen and old. There doesn't seem to be any locker room issues or fighting amongst themselves. They are mature and focused and that's a big plus. Even though I am not the biggest Capel fan and have been down on him for awhile now, I would admittedly be shocked if Pitt collapsed again this season. I'm just not seeing that at all.

I think it is looking better and better for Pitt to return to the NCAA Tournament after a 6 year hiatus.
 
** If you are a stat geek, perhaps something you find fun on the ESPN Gamecast is the “Win Probability” number that is constantly updated during the course of the game.

** We started this game at an 88% win probability. Mostly that number is a pretty sad indictment of the hapless Cards considering they are playing at home.

** And of course our Panthers didn’t come out like gangbusters, and their win probability dropped to 75% when the Cards snagged their biggest lead of the game at 14-10. Five Panther three pointers later, that same win probability was back up over 90%.

** The worst it dipped for the remainder of the game was 88%, and it remained over 98% for the last nine minutes.

** That’s a far too long a way of saying this game was never in doubt.

** As noted, it wasn’t really in doubt because Louisville is beyond terrible. But interestingly, there is some talent on this Cards squad, or at least some fairly highly ranked talent. Experienced for sure, but there are a handful of players who some of the best programs wanted.

** I suspect the Cards will beat a team or two in the ACC this year in the Yum Center. All we know now 100% that it won’t be us. Still, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tiny bit concerned going into the game that it could be.

** Maybe at some point during this season we will all become completely comfortable with the notion that this is a very solid basketball team truly headed for the Tournament. But unfortunately, the specter of four previous slides still lingers off in the distance.

** After the tonight, it’s a little further away still.

** It’s further away because the Panthers have six legit guns who can garner double digits on any given night. Over the last nine games, Burton has led the Panthers in scoring three times, Nike twice, and Blake, Fede, Greg and Nelly once. All six have had a 20 point outing during that stretch.

** Toss in increasing contributions for GDiaz and Nate and we are becoming harder and harder to guard.

** So hard in fact that on a night when it took a better part of the game for Nelly or Blake to hit a shot, it really didn’t matter.

** In 16 halves of the Panthers 8 ACC games, we’ve scored at least 33 points in all of the except two of them -- the first half against Virginia (followed by a 45 point 2nd half) and the second half against Duke. That's some very consistent scoring.

** Pomeroy now ranks our offense at #42, but this still includes the three struggles to start the year.

** Perhaps another idea we Panther fans should be comfortable with is this team is never going to be afraid to shoot the ball. Sure, some of those will look like bad or untimely shots to us. But I suspect Capel and his staff never want the guys to question their shots.

** Maybe even during those early darker days, the staff never wanted the guys to question their shots. It sure looks like it’s paying off now.

** This doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have room to grow, most notably on the defensive glass. The Cards got about 8 easy points that way today, and without those, our win probability today may not have ever dropped below it’s starting point.

** So now we come home for three, and our win probability for each is over 60%. Get at least two of them and perhaps even the most skeptical fan will completely put to rest that a big slide could still make a mark. Maybe then the only statistic we all will be focused upon is the number of our seed.

** I’ll leave by putting in a plug for one last number. Let’s see if we if we can get a realistic five figure attendance to support on Panthers in person on Saturday. These guys are fun and they are good. They’ve come a long way since early in the season, and the Coaching staff and program has come an amazingly long way since they ended last year with a five game slide.

** And you don’t have to be a stat to geek to enjoy them!
The game absolutely was never in doubt.

The constant threes can be a bit scary but the kids seem confident.

Nate is a factor. Never thought I would say that.

The Canary Boys, or at least one of them, bring a whole different perspective for teams to deal with.

Fede needs to learn still but he can be forgiven.

The difference is not talent. It’s coaching. Louisville staff looked like they got plopped down into a middle of a game from a local bar.
 
The game absolutely was never in doubt.

The constant threes can be a bit scary but the kids seem confident.

Nate is a factor. Never thought I would say that.

The Canary Boys, or at least one of them, bring a whole different perspective for teams to deal with.

Fede needs to learn still but he can be forgiven.

The difference is not talent. It’s coaching. Louisville staff looked like they got plopped down into a middle of a game from a local bar.
I just hope the canary boys don’t up their PPG to 6.5 combined. Miami or Oklahoma state will be tampering w multi million dollar NIL deals
 
I have not followed Louisville the past couple of years because we have been so bad, but HOW did Louisville get so BAD?
Chris Mack went thru a scandal with his assistant coach, didn’t adapt to the portal, lost his top ranked recruiting class or they busted (like Aiden Ighiehon) outside of Withers who has been mostly ok, hired a 57 year old first time head coach, hired a below average staff, didn’t recruit the portal well and then missed on DJ Wagner Jr. Add all that up and it gives you a bad team with a future that will be bad until they move on. May be after this year.
 
I love the fact that we have so many options. In years prior if so and so wasn't on, or this guy, then we were cooked.

We have scoring depth. That is something we rarely have had. I wish we could rebound better, but I am also really impressed with the defense they are playing.

But most of all, this team seems to really enjoy playing with each other. They really seem to want each other to do well. Sometimes I want to shoot Hinson or Nelly for their quick shots, but I rather them have the confidence to take, than we have seen guys on previous teams unwilling to take. How many times in the past 7-8 years have we run up against the shot clock forcing a bad shot??

But this group is easy to like, easy to root for. They look like they are having a blast. I think by now most have seen the video of Elliot coming out and congratulating JB on a double double. Can you imagine Xavier Johnson or Trey or Au'diese doing that to Justin Champagnie?? No, they would be plotting to train his GF.
 
I honestly now don't see a slide at all coming and it's not because Capel and his staff all turned into Coach K overnight. Most of the players are new and are upperclassmen and old. There doesn't seem to be any locker room issues or fighting amongst themselves. They are mature and focused and that's a big plus. Even though I am not the biggest Capel fan and have been down on him for awhile now, I would admittedly be shocked if Pitt collapsed again this season. I'm just not seeing that at all.

I think it is looking better and better for Pitt to return to the NCAA Tournament after a 6 year hiatus.
I think there’s and over reaction to coaching both negative and positive.

The idea that Capel is just a bad coach and rolls the ball out on the floor is silly. He’s adjusted the offense to fit this team. The defense has been really good - they’re scouting and translating to defensive game plans.

His want is to trust his players and not micro manage every in game decision a player makes - like last night I thought Nelly and Blake took some ill timed quick shots — but rather than yank them or tell them not to shoot he let them play and wants them taking the next shot .

I’m sure he and the other coaches will coach them on this - but ultimately wants the players to have confidence to make the next shot .
 
We have already tied our highest conference win total over the last six years (Stallings/Capel era). 12 games left.
Best ACC records:
11-7 1st ACC year (2013-14)
9-9 (2015-16)
 
I have not followed Louisville the past couple of years because we have been so bad, but HOW did Louisville get so BAD?
Man...I was thinking the same thing! How did they get this bad - was in absolute shock when I heard their record. Almost as shocked as when I heard Georgetown had a 20 plus losing streak in the Big East - just a head scratcher for both institutions. How the mighty have fallen.
 
The two stat's from tonight's game that stood out were:

21 assists on 28 made FG; 14/34 from beyond the arc
And Burton had 11 of those assists. Dan Bonner said Burton was letting the game come to him. As much as I like Burton, that's a statement I never expected to hear about him. He generally tries to impose his will on the game.
 
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I think there’s and over reaction to coaching both negative and positive.

The idea that Capel is just a bad coach and rolls the ball out on the floor is silly. He’s adjusted the offense to fit this team. The defense has been really good - they’re scouting and translating to defensive game plans.

His want is to trust his players and not micro manage every in game decision a player makes - like last night I thought Nelly and Blake took some ill timed quick shots — but rather than yank them or tell them not to shoot he let them play and wants them taking the next shot .

I’m sure he and the other coaches will coach them on this - but ultimately wants the players to have confidence to make the next shot .
Hate to bring up JD but if I recall I think that was an issue for him. If a kid put up an ill advised shot they were immediately pulled. Players need some freedom to shoot and not be looking over there shoulder at the bench when they mess up.
 
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And Burton had 11 of those assists. Dan Bonner said Burton was letting the game come to him. As much as I like Burton, that's a statement I never expected to hear about him. He generally tries to impose his will on the game.
It was such a pleasant surprise - he was a pure leader
 
Hate to bring up JD but if I recall I think that was an issue for him. If a kid put up an ill advised shot they were immediately pulled. Players need some freedom to shoot and not be looking over their shoulder at the bench when they mess up.
Depends on the player
Plenty had full green lights
Players who shouldn’t got yanked
Say for instance / Hugley jacking up 3s should get sat
 
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