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Louisville isnt that good

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Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
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They aren't bad, but more like a 6/7 seed kind of team whereas I think we are more of a 3/4 seed type of team.

As will be the case in most games, Pitt will have the 2 best players on the floor. I watched them play Clemson (who is pretty good by the way) and if Louisville has to rely on half court offense, they cant win. They need turnovers, especially live ball turnovers. They shoot it ok but not great, its going to be very tough for them to score with us if they aren't generaring turnovers and fast breaks. In the halfcourt, they are pretty average I think.

This is a game I think we will win. As I watched them play Clemson, I tried to picture their players with a name other than Louisville on their chest. Inotherwords, they're nothing special. A run-of-the mill R32 team, no better than that. Sure they can beat us and they will be favored but I dont think they are talented enough which is crazy to say.

Young and Artis are too much.

81-75.
 
UPitt129 said:
Here we go again with your garbage....
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Maybe you should start paying attention. I picked us to beat ND 84-80 and we won 86-82. Cant get much closer than that. I also pumped up Adam Smith before the GT game and said he was one of the best shooters in the country and he had a Top 5 all-time shooting performance at The Pete. I think I picked that game really close also.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Maybe you should start paying attention. I picked us to beat ND 84-80 and we won 86-82. Cant get much closer than that. I also pumped up Adam Smith before the GT game and said he was one of the best shooters in the country and he had a Top 5 all-time shooting performance at The Pete. I think I picked that game really close also.
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Louisville is in a similar position to Pitt in that it has to rely heavy on graduate transfers. There was no one average over 4 points per game that was returning. Louisville has always relied on pressing guards who learned the system and would improve defensively. With no Sosa or Smith back they lack the smothering press that the Ville usually puts on the court. However they are still very athletic and the Pitt game will differ from the Clemson game in the pace. Could go either way. Free throw shooting will win the Panthers 5 to 7 games this year. This may be one of them.
 
wolf0717 said:
Free throw shooting will win the Panthers 5 to 7 games this year. This may be one of them.
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You are saying that Pitt will win 5-7 games this season that they would have lost with previous years' FT shooting??? That is a crazy high number. You only get 31 regular season games. Pitt is already through 15 games and you couldn't attribute any other than ND to making FTs.
 
Let's try to hold some teams below 80pts before we declare this team that high of a seed. I am not trying to be a Debbie downer. I am enjoying this team as much as the next guy, if not more. It's just too early for that.

To get a 3 seed, we are going to have to be a top 10-15 RPI team at least...and more likely need to be 9-12. To do that, we need to take care of serious business in this league. 12-6 won't be enough to get our RPI that high in my opinion.
 
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fkthomas said:
Let's try to hold some teams below 80pts before we declare this team that high of a seed. I am not trying to be a Debbie downer. I am enjoying this team as much as the next guy, if not more. It's just too early for that.

To get a 3 seed, we are going to have to be a top 10-15 RPI team. To do that, we need to take care of serious business in this league. 12-6 won't be enough to get our RPI that high in my opinion.
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You're no "Debbie Downer"....in fact I agree with you. IMO we need to start showing some improvement on the defensive end. Yes, ..."hold some teams below 80 pts." As far as high seeds, let's see what we do with the remainder of the ACC schedule. BTW, hard as it is to believe...ND is actually worse defensively than we are, so I'm not so sure what to make of that win. They are very good on the offensive end, but we really didn't stop them on D. I hope we don't rely on outscoring everyone...that will eventually bite us in the ass.
 
wolf0717 said:
Louisville is in a similar position to Pitt in that it has to rely heavy on graduate transfers. There was no one average over 4 points per game that was returning. Louisville has always relied on pressing guards who learned the system and would improve defensively. With no Sosa or Smith back they lack the smothering press that the Ville usually puts on the court. However they are still very athletic and the Pitt game will differ from the Clemson game in the pace. Could go either way.
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Yes. Clemson's slow pace bothered them and they didn't generate many live ball turnovers. But they didnt press a whole bunch.

Louisville has some athletes and like I said they easily could beat us. They are still Louisville, its still Pitino, and its on the road. However, since Lou joined the Big East, this is one of Pitino's least talented teams I think.
They have to beat us with turnovers, energy, and athleticism. If its a game of half-court basketball, I dont think their players are good enough to beat us.
 
NC Panther said:
Why is it garbage?

He's just giving his opinion on Louisville and a prediction - where's the garbage?
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There is a category of fans who do pre-game mental gymnastics to classify every game as a game we should win, in order to justify their indignation with Dixon if we lose. I don't know if SMF is one of these posters, but I assume that's where the "garbage" post was coming from.

FWIW, I agree that Louisville might be a bit overrated. They really haven't beaten anyone, although they played Mich. St. and Kentucky really tough. It should be a good game, with the slight edge going to the home team.
 
Jamie kinda fell into the graduate transfer thing based on circumstances. At the same time, he's now reaping the benefits of having three in his rotation.
 
It is garbage because SMF is a poster who goes out of his way to say every team we play isn't any good, and then that way if pitt loses he feels entitled to meltdown on here.
 
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this is a very bad spot for pitt. coming off a big win on the road vs a team coming off a road loss . everyone's going to like pitt ....that is one of the best spots in sports betting ever. If you see that type of scenario you ALWAYS bet the team at home as long as they are good to decent team . That scenario played against Louisville vs Georgia tech this week and you see what happened I love my panthers but its a bad spot. I will say that if pitt wins then we have a really good chance in the ncaas this year. my prediction for the line is 5.5 to 6 could be as high as 7 if they consider above factor.
 
UPitt129 said:
It is garbage because SMF is a poster who goes out of his way to say every team we play isn't any good, and then that way if pitt loses he feels entitled to meltdown on here.
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well, the game isn't a "must win", so it has to be something.
 
levance2 said:
You are saying that Pitt will win 5-7 games this season that they would have lost with previous years' FT shooting??? That is a crazy high number. You only get 31 regular season games. Pitt is already through 15 games and you couldn't attribute any other than ND to making FTs.
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Levance, you better check the Georgia Tech game. Pitt already won the last two due to FT shooting.
 
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jrosenal said:
my prediction for the line is 5.5 to 6 could be as high as 7 if they consider above factor.
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The line will be more than 5.5 to 6 without taking anything else into account. We were a 5 point underdog against Notre Dame. Louisville is better than Notre Dame. It's probably going to be 8 or 9.
 
The FT truthers are like a dog with a bone. It's downright amazing how arbitrarily free throws are attributed to wins and losses.

If I were to have a choice between being horrible from the field, horrible from 3 only, horrible from the charity stripe, horrible at defense, or horrible on the boards, I'm taking being horrible at FT's without even a millisecond of hesitation.

Pitt's been around 50% from the field and 50% from 3 over the past 2 games and took pretty good care of the ball. If they play even average defense it renders everything else inconsequential.
 
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Bottom line is our defense is so bad that without the excellent foul shooting, we'd be in big trouble. If we had good defense, 67-68% ft shooting as a team wouldn't be a big deal.
 
fkthomas said:
Bottom line is our defense is so bad that without the excellent foul shooting, we'd be in big trouble. If we had good defense, 67-68% ft shooting as a team wouldn't be a big deal.
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Are you actually suggesting that a couple percentage points on average on a season is meaningful in an individual game??

Google the word "variance" and get back to me.
 
SoufOaklin4Life said:
Are you actually suggesting that a couple percentage points on average on a season is meaningful in an individual game??

Google the word "variance" and get back to me.
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I think the biggest difference for this team is the sheer number of guys who can shoot it. We have always had some guys you could count on, but also always had a few boat anchors that put our team average right in the meaty part of the curve. We don't really have any bad shooters outside Maia, and he is never on the floor at the end anyway.
 
KiwiJeff said:
I think the biggest difference for this team is the sheer number of guys who can shoot it. We have always had some guys you could count on, but also always had a few boat anchors that put our team average right in the meaty part of the curve. We don't really have any bad shooters outside Maia, and he is never on the floor at the end anyway.
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If you put DeJuan Blair on this team, all of a sudden its an average FT shooting team because he draws a lot of fouls and only made about 50%. That's the rub.

Its great Pitt shoots FTs really well but that usually means you dont have a rugged low-post scorer since those guys dont shoot well. Pitt doesnt have a "rugged" low post guy but Young is kinda like a hybrid 3/4/5 doing a little of each. He'll never rebound like Blair or Gray but he can shoot.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
If you put DeJuan Blair on this team, all of a sudden its an average FT shooting team because he draws a lot of fouls and only made about 50%. That's the rub.

Its great Pitt shoots FTs really well but that usually means you dont have a rugged low-post scorer since those guys dont shoot well. Pitt doesnt have a "rugged" low post guy but Young is kinda like a hybrid 3/4/5 doing a little of each. He'll never rebound like Blair or Gray but he can shoot.
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I think it's pretty clear that we would've lost at Notre Dame with Blair at the 5 because of his poor free throw shooting.
 
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NTOP said:
He'd have gone for 20-20 against their frontcourt. More than enough. Plus, he'd have hurt their feelings.
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That's the joke. Just poking fun at certain posters. I'd take another Blair in a heartbeat even if he hurt our free throw percentage.
 
PantherFan412 said:
There is a category of fans who do pre-game mental gymnastics to classify every game as a game we should win, in order to justify their indignation with Dixon if we lose. I don't know if SMF is one of these posters, but I assume that's where the "garbage" post was coming from.

FWIW, I agree that Louisville might be a bit overrated. They really haven't beaten anyone, although they played Mich. St. and Kentucky really tough. It should be a good game, with the slight edge going to the home team.
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Why do you think he makes his pronouncement????? Pitt loses , Dixon and Pitt sucks. Why do you think when pedostate, his true love lost their two main coordinators he proclaimed coordinators aren't important. He is a troll, Just get his name. His hero is a guy who left Pitt and has bad blood with Pitt for decades.
 
Pittbaseball11 said:
The FT truthers are like a dog with a bone. It's downright amazing how arbitrarily free throws are attributed to wins and losses.

If I were to have a choice between being horrible from the field, horrible from 3 only, horrible from the charity stripe, horrible at defense, or horrible on the boards, I'm taking being horrible at FT's without even a millisecond of hesitation.

Pitt's been around 50% from the field and 50% from 3 over the past 2 games and took pretty good care of the ball. If they play even average defense it renders everything else inconsequential.
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This drives me crazy. There is no requirement that being good in one area must be offset by being bad in another. Given that, if you are better at FT's, you will score more points and have a better chance to win. Why is that so hard to understand? I will grant you that if you can shoot 60% from the field you will be even more likely to win, but as an independent stat, better FT shooting teams have a better chance to win close games than poor shooting FT teams, all other factors being equal. No one is saying that it is the most important factor, just that it is absolutely a factor.
 
DSP1976 said:
No one is saying that it is the most important factor, just that it is absolutely a factor.
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Actually there are several posters on this board that credit every close win when we shoot foul shots well to free throw shooting and every close loss where we don't shoot foul shots well to free throw shooting.

On the other hand, no one has ever said that free throw shooting doesn't matter, no matter how much those people claim otherwise.
 
DSP1976 said:
This drives me crazy. There is no requirement that being good in one area must be offset by being bad in another. Given that, if you are better at FT's, you will score more points and have a better chance to win. Why is that so hard to understand? I will grant you that if you can shoot 60% from the field you will be even more likely to win, but as an independent stat, better FT shooting teams have a better chance to win close games than poor shooting FT teams, all other factors being equal. No one is saying that it is the most important factor, just that it is absolutely a factor.
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That's not true. every game is an individual event. The better ft shooting team may only go to the line 6 times while the other team who shoots poorly goes 18 times and makes 66%. You can't really hold all things being equal. It's a nice hypothetical, but almost never happens in reality.
 
For the record it opened at 6.5 at 5 today and been bet up to 7 and 7.5....will be 8 or 9 by tip off.
 
The average team shoots 20 FTs per game this year.

So.... the difference between an 80% shooting team and a 60% shooting team is 4 points per game on average.

Lots of games are decided by 4 points or less. And like DSP1976 said.... being good at FTs doesn't impact a team's ability to be good at something else. There's no tradeoff... Anybody can be better at FTs without impacting the rest of their game at all.

Over the course of a season.... how many more wins is it worth to average 4 more points per game? Especially when those extra 4 points per game had absolutely no negative impact on any other aspect of a team? Hard to say, but it is more than 0.
 
Joe the Panther Fan said:
Actually there are several posters on this board that credit every close win when we shoot foul shots well to free throw shooting and every close loss where we don't shoot foul shots well to free throw shooting.

On the other hand, no one has ever said that free throw shooting doesn't matter, no matter how much those people claim otherwise.
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AS Souf pointed out, the games are played on the court because there are variations from the mean. Upsets happen because one team may vary greatly from the mean, an underdog shooting out of their minds or a favorite throwing up bricks. That can be from the field or the line. That is why it is a great game, and upsets are more frequent in hoops that in FB. So many factors come into play. Heck, BC may beat a top of the league team, we just hope it isn't us.
 
UPitt '89 said:
The average team shoots 20 FTs per game this year.

So.... the difference between an 80% shooting team and a 60% shooting team is 4 points per game on average.

Lots of games are decided by 4 points or less. And like DSP1976 said.... being good at FTs doesn't impact a team's ability to be good at something else. There's no tradeoff... Anybody can be better at FTs without impacting the rest of their game at all.

Over the course of a season.... how many more wins is it worth to average 4 more points per game? Especially when those extra 4 points per game had absolutely no negative impact on any other aspect of a team? Hard to say, but it is more than 0.
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Of course the delta between 60 and 80 is huge. Nobody would debate that. Exactly how many teams shoot 60 or less or 80 or more? What's the difference between shooting 68 and 72? That's where most teams sit. When this silly debate started, I even said if you could increase your percent more than ten percent, the you may have something. But people were bitching about improving from 68 to 72, and that makes very little difference on a game by game level.
 
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