Luni's latest update has..........

[California Panther]

us as an 11 playing 11 UConn in the play-in game in Dayton, then winner gets Dayton in Providence, then possibly the Hoopies!

We dropped from the #1 in the last 4 in to the #3 in the last 4 in

Remember, he isn't the best bracketologist by rankings, just the one given the biggest audience, there are 30+ ranked ahead of him

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

A little misleading because he still has Temple as an auto bid as the 1 seed. If they lose tomorrow, they are out and everyone moves up 1.

 

[bobfree]

Temple is 88% likely according to team rankings.

Pitt as another reference is 49.8

 

[NCanton Panther]

A little misleading because he still has Temple as an auto bid as the 1 seed. If they lose tomorrow, they are out and everyone moves up 1.

Problem right now is that everyone has different opinions on what the committee gives the most weight to in their decisions. Mine, I don't agree with you on Temple. Regardless of their overall resume, I can't see them leaving out the first place team from that conference.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Temple is 88% likely according to team rankings.

Pitt as another reference is 49.8

That's because temple still has a high % shot of winning the AAC tourney.

Trust the bracketmatrix. Pitt is in 41-42 brackets, that's about a 97% chance, sounds right.

 

[bobfree]

That's because temple still has a high % shot of winning the AAC tourney.

Trust the bracketmatrix. Pitt is in 41-42 brackets, that's about a 97% chance, sounds right.

You are making great points in both threads and you are more than likely accurate in the other thread the more that I ponder it. I forgot gonzaga won the wcc and saw them at 11. I hope Pitt is in, I think 97% is awfully high though.

 

[TempleBAPittMPA]

Since the teams in the "play-in" games had to PLAY to get IN, shouldn't they go in as 16-seeds?

 

[DT_PITT]

That's because temple still has a high % shot of winning the AAC tourney.

Trust the bracketmatrix. Pitt is in 41-42 brackets, that's about a 97% chance, sounds right.

It's almost kind of strange how Lunardi is seemingly out of step about Pitt compared with so many of the other bracketologists.

I've suspected that someone is "feeding him" relevant info and I surely hope this is nothing more than a ridiculous hunch on my part. I know that it proabably is.

But 72 hours ago, he called our game with the Cuse an elimination game. Then just before the game, he starts saying that Pitt needs the game more than the Cuse.

After the game, he said Pitt's is in as long as "they don't go and get blown out by 30 against UNC." Since when did margin of victory in the final conference tournament game matter at all? Never!

What bothers me is that he has absolutely no incentive at all to undervalue us. None. Maybe he doesn't like how we "game the RPI" or some other thing. But he seems pretty certain that no matter what else seems to be happening, we are ending up in Dayton, as he keeps moving teams who were previously out of the tournament ahead of us.

If he's wrong, he looks unknowledgeable and this would reduce his credibility. Why would he do this purposefully, just because he doesn't like something about us?

All of this just makes me worried that he knows something that everyone doesn't.

Again, I know this is just a pure "bad feeling hunch" on my part. And supposedly, the committee is very tight lipped. But it just doesn't make sense to me that the highest profile "bracketologist" would just keep dropping and dropping us at this point.

I guess if he says we are an 11 and we end up a 10, this looks "close enough" that no one would really consider it a miscall.

But if we end up a #9 seed like Jerry Palm suggests, he surely looks "pretty off."

Hopefully, the answer is that he isn't getting inside info. Hopefully, he just plain old wrong, which is probably the most logical scenario.

 

[UPitt129]

All I needed to see lunardi to know he has some sort of bias is that he moved Oregon st up about 5 spots after a win against a worse team than cuse, then drop us after a win.

IMO, we are safely in, and won't likely even be in the play in game.

 

[UPitt '89]

It's almost kind of strange how Lunardi is seemingly out of step about Pitt compared with so many of the other bracketologists.

I've suspected that someone is "feeding him" relevant info and I surely hope this is nothing more than a ridiculous hunch on my part. I know that it proabably is.

But 72 hours ago, he called our game with the Cuse an elimination game. Then just before the game, he starts saying that Pitt needs the game more than the Cuse.

After the game, he said Pitt's is in as long as "they don't go and get blown out by 30 against UNC." Since when did margin of victory in the final conference tournament game matter at all? Never!

What bothers me is that he has absolutely no incentive at all to undervalue us. None. Maybe he doesn't like how we "game the RPI" or some other thing. But he seems pretty certain that no matter what else seems to be happening, we are ending up in Dayton, as he keeps moving teams who were previously out of the tournament ahead of us.

If he's wrong, he looks unknowledgeable and this would reduce his credibility. Why would he do this purposefully, just because he doesn't like something about us?

All of this just makes me worried that he knows something that everyone doesn't.

Again, I know this is just a pure "bad feeling hunch" on my part. And supposedly, the committee is very tight lipped. But it just doesn't make sense to me that the highest profile "bracketologist" would just keep dropping and dropping us at this point.

I guess if he says we are an 11 and we end up a 10, this looks "close enough" that no one would really consider it a miscall.

But if we end up a #9 seed like Jerry Palm suggests, he surely looks "pretty off."

Hopefully, the answer is that he isn't getting inside info. Hopefully, he just plain old wrong, which is probably the most logical scenario.

Having seen the ESPN special explaining how the committee works, I guarantee that the committee members are so freaking busy right now that there is nobody feeding him any info.

He has a bad record historically... .and he is way off on this one as well.

He may be the "highest profile" but that is because he works for ESPN, not because he is any good at it.

Watch what his final bracket on Sunday looks like. Want to bet that Pitt "miraculously" moves off of the Dayton line?

He's trying to influence the committee and public perception, perhaps... he always overvalues St. Joe's and 'Nova - his two alma maters.

But the committee's process, as outlined, leaves no room for them to worry about Joe freaking Lunardi.... one of a hundred bracketologists, and historically not one of the better ones.

When 46 out of the top 47 bracketologists have Pitt in... and 42 of those have them avoiding Dayton.... I'm not going to worry too much about Joe Lunardi.

 

[DT_PITT]

Having seen the ESPN special explaining how the committee works, I guarantee that the committee members are so freaking busy right now that there is nobody feeding him any info.

He has a bad record historically... .and he is way off on this one as well.

He may be the "highest profile" but that is because he works for ESPN, not because he is any good at it.

Watch what his final bracket on Sunday looks like. Want to bet that Pitt "miraculously" moves off of the Dayton line?

He's trying to influence the committee and public perception, perhaps... he always overvalues St. Joe's and 'Nova - his two alma maters.

But the committee's process, as outlined, leaves no room for them to worry about Joe freaking Lunardi.... one of a hundred bracketologists, and historically not one of the better ones.

When 46 out of the top 47 bracketologists have Pitt in... and 42 of those have them avoiding Dayton.... I'm not going to worry too much about Joe Lunardi.

Your certainty is reassuring. Hope you are right. I don't want to play in Dayton. I'm fine with a 10-seed.

 

[cabe23]

Your certainty is reassuring. Hope you are right. I don't want to play in Dayton. I'm fine with a 10-seed.

Me too.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

I could care less if we play at Dayton if it is the right matchup. Just like the conference tournaments, teams that play a day early sometimes get a nice confidence boost by winning their first game and I believe have an advantage in that next game.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

It's almost kind of strange how Lunardi is seemingly out of step about Pitt compared with so many of the other bracketologists.

I've suspected that someone is "feeding him" relevant info and I surely hope this is nothing more than a ridiculous hunch on my part. I know that it proabably is.

But 72 hours ago, he called our game with the Cuse an elimination game. Then just before the game, he starts saying that Pitt needs the game more than the Cuse.

After the game, he said Pitt's is in as long as "they don't go and get blown out by 30 against UNC." Since when did margin of victory in the final conference tournament game matter at all? Never!

What bothers me is that he has absolutely no incentive at all to undervalue us. None. Maybe he doesn't like how we "game the RPI" or some other thing. But he seems pretty certain that no matter what else seems to be happening, we are ending up in Dayton, as he keeps moving teams who were previously out of the tournament ahead of us.

If he's wrong, he looks unknowledgeable and this would reduce his credibility. Why would he do this purposefully, just because he doesn't like something about us?

All of this just makes me worried that he knows something that everyone doesn't.

Again, I know this is just a pure "bad feeling hunch" on my part. And supposedly, the committee is very tight lipped. But it just doesn't make sense to me that the highest profile "bracketologist" would just keep dropping and dropping us at this point.

I guess if he says we are an 11 and we end up a 10, this looks "close enough" that no one would really consider it a miscall.

But if we end up a #9 seed like Jerry Palm suggests, he surely looks "pretty off."

Hopefully, the answer is that he isn't getting inside info. Hopefully, he just plain old wrong, which is probably the most logical scenario.

No way is he getting inside info from the committee. You are being way too paranoid. Now what he is trying to do is sway them by putting all of this garbage out their as much as possible. I don't think it will work.

 

[DT_PITT]

No way is he getting inside info from the committee. You are being way too paranoid. Now what he is trying to do is sway them by putting all of this garbage out their as much as possible. I don't think it will work.

That at least makes some logical sense. Maybe, like UPitt89 said, he'll start sliding us to the 10 seed line by late Saturday.

 

[pitt-girl]

I could care less if we play at Dayton if it is the right matchup. Just like the conference tournaments, teams that play a day early sometimes get a nice confidence boost by winning their first game and I believe have an advantage in that next game.

Glad you posted this. I actually think some teams benefit from having to play this game.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Glad you posted this. I actually think some teams benefit from having to play this game.

It just depends on the matchups. For example, I'd rather be a 9 and have to play, say Oregon State then Nova to get to a Sweet 16

But, I think there's a 0% chance we'd beat Kansas or Izzo so I'd rather take any Dayton path that would avoid those teams. If we had to play St. Mary's in Dayton, then a 6 seed, then Indiana, I'd take that in a hearbeat over KU or MSU.

 

[BFo8]

Very little chance Pitt is out, and by very little I mean less than 5% chance. Dayton is a possibility, but I think we avoid it.

Probably heading for an 8 vs 9 against a similarly flawed team. Maybe Oregon St, USC, St Bonaventure, or a team like that.

 

[TempleBAPittMPA]

He's trying to influence the committee and public perception, perhaps... he always overvalues St. Joe's and 'Nova - his two alma maters.

Everybody in Philadelphia knows that Joe is actually Lunardi's middle name. His first name is Saint.